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wallet.dat
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August 01, 2011, 04:45:10 AM
 #81

Hmm.  Interesting.  Perhaps I should cancel my sell order and just hold on to my BTC for the time being.

"MOOOOOOOM! THE MEATLOAF!!! F**K!"
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. Header-only clients like MultiBit trust that the majority of mining power is honest for the purposes of enforcing network rules such as the 21 million BTC limit. Full clients do not trust miners in this way.
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August 01, 2011, 01:14:23 PM
 #82

Hmm.  Interesting.  Perhaps I should cancel my sell order and just hold on to my BTC for the time being.

I don't know. I have done some more testing and right now it looks like it could be this way for a while. I have been holding, but now I am thinking that it could actually be more productive to join the bots and systematically take advantage of the small daily fluctuations.

This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.
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August 01, 2011, 01:45:02 PM
 #83


This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.

Don't know how to run a bot? Be a bot!

i am satoshi
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August 01, 2011, 02:36:02 PM
 #84


This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.

Don't know how to run a bot? Be a bot!

I can't compete with bots.
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August 01, 2011, 06:12:21 PM
 #85


This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.

Don't know how to run a bot? Be a bot!

I can't compete with bots.

It is fun to learn new skills.

True.  However, I don't even have a clue where to begin.  Any suggestions?
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August 01, 2011, 06:43:02 PM
 #86


This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.

Don't know how to run a bot? Be a bot!

I can't compete with bots.

It is fun to learn new skills.

True.  However, I don't even have a clue where to begin.  Any suggestions?

Well, I have been eyeballing Aricie lately, and will probably be giving them a go once they have had a chance to shake things out a bit.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=32484

Interesting, thanks.  Though, I have to say, with all the stuff going on with exchanges and cloud wallets, I'm seriously considering pulling all my BTCs into my own securely backed up wallets.
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August 02, 2011, 12:30:50 AM
 #87

Hopefully we will see more competition in that arena.  Centralization can lead to vulnerability.  Disasters happen.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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August 02, 2011, 09:23:50 AM
 #88

So much for "difficulty follows price... with a lag"  Embarrassed

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August 02, 2011, 09:38:30 AM
 #89

So much for "difficulty follows price... with a lag"  Embarrassed
It does, although it may not be the way you wish. As long as it is profitable to mine the difficulty will continue to increase, even if the price is falling.
wallet.dat
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August 02, 2011, 10:50:45 AM
 #90

So much for "difficulty follows price... with a lag"  Embarrassed
It does, although it may not be the way you wish. As long as it is profitable to mine the difficulty will continue to increase, even if the price is falling.
Yeah, that's what we'd call "price moves in the opposite direction of difficulty". I really don't think price has that much to do with difficulty and vice versa.  The exchange market seems to have a mind of it's own, regardless of what the difficulty is.

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August 02, 2011, 12:52:37 PM
 #91

With 7200 new coins generated every day with a matching trade volume, we can only hope miners are patient. While prices rising, miners would be right to hold, but their confidence is heavily tested on the way down. Casual day traders are afraid of the market and recent chaos is hardly attractive to first time buyers. It's up to extant holders to buy more at these bargain prices.

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August 03, 2011, 07:33:13 PM
 #92

It appears that a contingent of traders has decided that $/BTC should track the DJI or some indicator very similar to DJI. For instance, this is something that could be driving a bot trading strategy, and such a bot will have to periodically re-balance in order to continue with the strategy without going illiquid.

Based on this observation I would expect $/BTC to seek an equilibrium approaching a scaled multiple of DJI. To arrive at that multiple I would use price averages from about June 16, 2011 to present, as this seems to be the point at which $/BTC started tracking pretty closely with the DJI. But I am pretty certain that this strategy has a shelf-life, as attempting to hold a peg like that is ultimately unsustainable.
 

You don't know what you are talking about, there is no correlation between DJI and Bitcoins, you are just seeing what you want to see.
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August 03, 2011, 07:51:50 PM
 #93

It appears that a contingent of traders has decided that $/BTC should track the DJI or some indicator very similar to DJI. For instance, this is something that could be driving a bot trading strategy, and such a bot will have to periodically re-balance in order to continue with the strategy without going illiquid.

Based on this observation I would expect $/BTC to seek an equilibrium approaching a scaled multiple of DJI. To arrive at that multiple I would use price averages from about June 16, 2011 to present, as this seems to be the point at which $/BTC started tracking pretty closely with the DJI. But I am pretty certain that this strategy has a shelf-life, as attempting to hold a peg like that is ultimately unsustainable.

You don't know what you are talking about, there is no correlation between DJI and Bitcoins, you are just seeing what you want to see.

True, there is no natural correlation.

It is completely the result of the systematic strategy of a trading contingent that has been in effect since about June 16, 2011. The data doesn't lie...

The data doesn't lie because you will always find correlation between what ever you want to find a correlation for, for a shorter period of time. Once again you will not find a clear correlation between bitcoins and DJI for longer period of time, that we in finance call, a "real" correlation. Don't even bother following it. Bitcoins have a fundamental ground that have other parameters that you should look for. One clear correlation is cost of mining and price, start looking there.
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August 03, 2011, 08:11:12 PM
 #94

They might not influence each other while still being both influenced similarly by the same external factors

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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August 03, 2011, 08:32:55 PM
 #95

I was just trying to point out that even if there is no logical cause/effect between two sets of data, they might still be correlated; "might" being the keyword.

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

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August 03, 2011, 10:35:47 PM
 #96


Well....

DJI down for a lot of reasons now in the news.

BTC down because (a) mybitcoin and bitomat.pl losses were extraordinary and should make anyone lower their current market value, and (b) potentially those stolen coins are flooding the market.

Both markets have really clear, real world drivers which are coincidentally driving the price down.
netrin
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August 04, 2011, 05:05:37 PM
 #97

Could all of these correlations simply demonstrate the huge influence of the dollar rather than these assets to each other?

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netrin
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August 04, 2011, 05:43:03 PM
 #98

Then I misunderstand your reference to silver. Bitcoin leads the market by 24 hours? (04 August New York lunch time $42 - $39)


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August 04, 2011, 06:07:16 PM
 #99

Silver indeed often leads other markets like stocks, but you can't only look at short term correlations.

Indeed, this year, Silver topped before the nasdaq.

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August 04, 2011, 11:51:54 PM
 #100

Did anything big happen during or previously to those periods where there was a temporary correlation?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

The more you believe in Bitcoin, and the more you show you do to other people, the faster the real value will soar!

Do you like mmmBananas?!
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