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coined
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August 22, 2011, 01:52:42 AM
 #181



Everyone is waiting for someone to break the cycle.

pretty much,

probably loads of people with cash at the ready right now, they see the signs for a rally,  they are just waiting to see if it will go back down first, nothing wrong with that, it wouldn't take much upwards movement for us all to jump on thinking if we miss it, it could be $16 in an hour  Tongue myself included, how far would YOU let it go before you jumped on? 11.6 11.9?  Grin

I am not seeing any fresh signs or reasons for a rally. All I am seeing/feeling is a flat line or a slight sloping downwards in price due to
a lack of worthwhile news coming from the convention. I would not be shocked at all to see 9-10 per BTC this week and that is how I played
it with that in mind. A lot of miners held off selling this week and without any movement they will unload not just a few days worth
of mining, but two weeks worth into this 11ish dollar price.

It could definitely go back down(looks likely), that's why I said they are holding cash and waiting(very sensible right now), I'm sure lots of people got money into the exchanges ahead of time for this conference, so they could move fast to buy if the market went that way, just that mentality and the ready cash is why I think It wouldn't take much upwards movement for everyone to just jump on, rather than let it get away from them,  it could be now, or tuesday, or it could go down to 9.5/10 and from there a rally to 11 again and that could be the trigger, It's more psychological than technical analysis, and we could also just watch it slowly fall forever Grin  it's that rally trigger that's needed.

Technical analysis is psychology...

all technical analysis is psychology?  Huh  I thought it was more complicated and likely beyond my current understanding  Grin

I was telling him my theory was psychological rather than technical, because i didn't come up with it from the market charts, I am no expert at all, I don't know how to correctly read the indicators and signals  Tongue and would have reached the same conclusion with no charts, thats all I meant, how should I have worded it?  Huh

also, do you think the bot held the market back here(stopping the slow steady rising that might have kicked off panic buying), or was it just the anti climactic conference? 

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August 22, 2011, 02:46:11 PM
 #182

While I am fairly certain that steadybot means well, by attempting to cultivate a stable market and all that, I do not think it's operator understands the unintended consequences of this strategy. By preventing price from floating up above $11.80 there is now redoubled resistance to the upside of $11.60 when it could have just as well have been a support level... Now I am seeing the upside potential unwind, leaving downside potential as the more likely proposition. If the hope is to attract investors/merchants by this strategy I would have to say at this point that it will be self-defeating. This kind of stickiness will virtually guarantee a gradual downward slide of the exchange rate over the long term... Now, if that is what steadybot intends all I have to say is "good job".





Well, in case of emergency, it would be quite easy for them to reverse the trend by removing the ask walls and buy all the 0.0* asks all the way up to somewhere like $15 anyway, unless there is a mighty short-seller working against them....

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August 22, 2011, 02:52:45 PM
 #183

Seems that the bots are pumping up the support as well......

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August 22, 2011, 04:00:29 PM
 #184

Yup, it definitely biases towards the low... which is why it's stupid to suggest this is an attempt at shoring up the market. If anything, it's a downward magnet.
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August 23, 2011, 11:55:06 AM
 #185

Ok, I am ready to call it.

Right now I am very happy with the new rule sets for selecting correlations. I am not yet ready to show the daily targets beyond the 29th but suffice it to say they line up nicely with re-target period model. I really like it when different methodologies give me similar results so here it is...



I'm assuming such a late August rally is totally implausible at this point. How long will it take to retest the lows when people realize this isn't coming?

tips: 14Z1Bwa8bgEWphjD2qqaXMTY9ucutwuTw8
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August 23, 2011, 12:23:48 PM
 #186

I really like your predictions much! it's like an aditional indicator!
but how do you calculate the prediction?
how do you get the horizontal lines?
thx 4 your answer!

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August 23, 2011, 02:46:12 PM
 #187

August Target Performance
(actual daily prices in left columns followed by each of chodpaba's ~four targets under the date of prediction)

Code:
Actual Low     High   2011-08-02                                                                                                   Date
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 |========== |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  | 13.0-13.5 |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-02
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  | 13.3-13.8 |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-03
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-04
08-05 |  9.5    11    | 13.1-14.1 |========== |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-05
08-06 |  5.75   10    | 12.258-   | 5.26-     |2011-08-07 |     08-08 |     08-08 |           |           |           |           | 08-06
08-07 |  6       9.5  |  12.734-  | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 |           |           |           |           | 08-07
08-08 |  7.05    8.1  |   13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== |2011-08-09 |           |           |           | 08-08
08-09 |  7.7    12.1  |    14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 |========== |           |           |           | 08-09
08-10 |  9.5    10.4  |    "      | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 7.90-10.2 |           |           |           | 08-10
08-11 |  8.45   10.5  |    "      | 2.329-    | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 7.90-8.41 |2011-08-12 |           |           | 08-11
08-12 |  8.91    9.80 | 12.550-   |           |           | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 7.78-8.31 |========== |2011-08-13 |2011-08-14 | 08-12
08-13 |  9.28   10.25 |  12.748-  |2011-08-15 | IRQ 08-15 |           |           | 7.78-8.75 | 9.13-9.60 |========== |========== | 08-13
08-14 |  9.62   11.24 |   13.228- |========== |========== |           |           |           | 7.44-9.17 | 9.21-10.1 | 9.95-10.6 | 08-14
08-15 | 10.72   11.89 |    13.383 | 10.4-11.0 | 9.84-11.6 |           |           |           | 7.62-10.4 | 8.81-9.49 | 9.57-10.5 | 08-15
08-16 | 10.81   11.32 |    "      | 8.81-11.1 | 7.97-12.1 |           |           |           | 7.07-9.02 | 8.84-9.13 | 9.68-11.3 | 08-16
08-17 | 10.66   11.10 |    "      | 8.17-10.1 | 7.29-11.7 |           |           |           |           | 8.78-9.30 | 11.1-12.7 | 08-17
08-18 | 10.81   11.05 |    "      | 8.03-9.59 | 7.02-12.0 |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-18
08-19 | 10.83   11.81 |    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-19
08-20 | 11.40   11.69 |    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-20
08-21 | 11.31   11.51 |    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-21
08-22 | 10.51   11.50 |    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-22
08-23 |(10.81 ? 11.30)|    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-23

Still not convinced by time-scaling? Smiley





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August 23, 2011, 05:27:01 PM
 #188

I like your time scaling.

Indeed, price pattern tend to repeat themselves very often, and the only thing to adjust is time.

This is also one element in Elliott Wave analysis, and some of that we use in addition to out bitcoin price forecast in the Technical Analysis reports very successfully.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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August 24, 2011, 09:46:34 PM
 #189

Beeeeep...


eh...  Huh
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August 24, 2011, 09:53:38 PM
 #190

Beeeeep...

We're backing up.
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August 26, 2011, 07:02:19 PM
 #191

Quote from: chodpaba


Is this chart volume weighted?
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August 27, 2011, 04:51:12 AM
 #192

Quote from: chodpaba


Is this chart volume weighted?

The methodology was explained here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=22685.msg453596#msg453596


Do you see value in adding volume weighting?
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August 27, 2011, 05:20:56 AM
 #193

I am still not seeing much reason to keep price from testing the $6.30 range although it could take a couple more days to get there. Saturday I expect to see lows in the mid $7's and highs not higher than the mid $8's, then languishing in the mid $7's Sunday...



A scenario like this one would put the price near $9.30 Saturday.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2zczsg2011-08-02zeg2011-08-05zvzlztgSzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g50zx

Which, following the Aug 3rd scenario, could lead to lower lows as we saw Aug 6.
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September 01, 2011, 01:42:24 AM
 #194

I place the IQR for Thursday at $7.79 to $8.55. I am not yet convinced that the $8.00-$8.10 support level is ready to be broken, although the trend for the next few days seems to be down.

*image*
Price fell below $8, and is still dropping. It definately looks like it's tending down. When do you expect it to return?
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September 01, 2011, 06:44:13 PM
 #195

I don't see how any trader could complain about this, it is as easy as playing "Pong".

at .5% trading fee on both the buy/sell it is hard to make any money with these ping/pong going on.

plus when you sell 50BTC for example, the price really collapses quite a bit when doing so. thus
you are not really selling at 8.30... The average price might be 8.20 when done. And when you bought at
8.10.. that is really not worth it to me.

With the price at 8.27 as I type this, selling 50BTC will drive the price down to 8.12ish...

I decided to get out and stay out for now. The risk is not worth the reward at the moment with the
bearish feeling I have and getting caught being in all BTC.

I hope I made sense.

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September 01, 2011, 06:55:18 PM
 #196

I think I could make more with the amount of money I have in play by driving around to Dunkin
Donuts and picking up change off the ground. And that includes what gas costs in my Prius.
To do what you suggest would almost be a full time job and the amount of money I would have
to put into play to make it worth it would probably turn me into a "player". You know.. those shady
manipulators tossing around 500-1000 BTC at a whim anywhere they see a profit. ;-)
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September 01, 2011, 06:58:26 PM
 #197

I think I could make more with the amount of money I have in play by driving around to Dunkin
Donuts and picking up change off the ground. And that includes what gas costs in my Prius.

You could always put more money in play.

I edited my post above. Sorry to confuse you. I hit submit without thinking about my post a bit more.
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September 03, 2011, 05:04:47 AM
 #198

I think I could make more with the amount of money I have in play by driving around to Dunkin
Donuts and picking up change off the ground. And that includes what gas costs in my Prius.

You could always put more money in play.

If only we were trading on a real, accountable, regulated and audited exchange, and had margin and derivatives on bitcoin (and more than a snowball's chance in hell of actually assigning a put).  I'd be playing with real money, and wouldn't be the only one.  Until then pocket change only.  Seriously, I've paid more in comission in one day than the total I have at risk in BTC.
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September 03, 2011, 05:54:17 AM
 #199

That still requires trust in the exchange, and in the intermediary handling funds for deposit and withdrawal from the exchange. 

I'm not comfortable trusting more than pocket change to those amateur hour clowns at mtgox and dwolla.

The amount of money a penny bot would make on a few thousand $ after round trip commissions is less than what I'd make spending development & tweaking time working at McD's instead.  To say nothing of more conventional trading.
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September 03, 2011, 06:26:22 AM
 #200

To be fair, when it comes to trading costs, the more you trade the less you pay.
I am not sure what the lower limit is but if you trade more then 200 BTC on mtgox within
a month your rate drops down to .53%. So I wonder what it would be if you traded 1000
BTC within a month? .3%?

Perhaps once you reach those levels things become a bit easier to make quick trades.
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