Bitcoin Forum
December 07, 2016, 04:32:18 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 »
  Print  
Author Topic: :  (Read 68052 times)
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 08, 2011, 01:43:42 AM
 #121

I've updated the previous chart with most (all?) of Chodpaba's text predictions including today's. I have not tried to extract numbers from his graphic charts. Below is a simplified table.

On the left we have dates MM-DD followed by the actually daily high and low at Mt. Gox. In the right most columns are Chodpaba's predictions for each day below the date of the prediction. Chodpaba provided two types of predictions: explicit high low for each day (I've rounded and ignored the variance), and ~weekly ranges.

For example, under 2011-07-21 Chodpaba made four predictions for the 22, 23, 24, and 25 July. We can see the actual low for 22 July was $13.45, high 13.8, but Chodpaba predicted $13.5-14 the day before. For the 25th, Chodpaba made five predictions on that and the previous days from 2011-07-21 to 2011-07-25. The actual day's price range was $13.75-14.7; Chodpaba predicted $13.4-15 four days earlier, and skipping across $13.5-14.4 the day before. On the day of the 25th he also made a range prediction (the last column) with 13.448-14.239 inner range and 12.895-15.462 outer range over the week from 25 July to 1 August.

In order to compress the table, I've moved many of the of the later predictions under earlier predictions. So, for example Chodpaba's predictions made on 2011-07-29 share the same column as 2011-07-21. I hope that doesn't confuse too much. Maybe I'll be so motivated to put this in HTML and update it frequently. Though I only put it together as a reaction to negative posts. Franky I think Chodpaba's been solidly on, although his earlier month-in-advance were way off and he failed to predict the drop on 4 August. But on balance, I think Chodpaba'a predictions have been disturbingly accurate.

Code:
Actual  Low     High    2011-07-21
        =====   ====  | ========== | 2011-07-22 | 2011-07-23 |
07-22 | 13.45   13.8  |  13.5-14.0 | ========== | ========== |
07-23 | 13.51   13.76 |  13.3-14.3 |  13.2-14.1 |  13.4-14.1 | 2011-07-24 |            | 2011-07-25 |
07-24 | 13.63   14.1  |  13.4-14.8 |  13.2-14.6 |  13.2-14.3 | ========== | 2011-07-25 | ========== |
07-25 | 13.75   14.7  |  13.4-15.0 |  13.2-14.6 |  12.9-14.0 |  13.5-14.4 | ========== |  12.895-   |
07-26 | 13.77   14.05 |            |  14.0-15.5 |  12.8-13.6 |  13.3-14.2 |  13.6-14.6 |   13.448-  |
07-27 | 13.68   14.13 |            |            |            |  13.2-13.8 |  13.5-14.3 |    14.239- |
07-28 | 13.3    13.95 | 2011-07-29 |            |            |  13.1-13.8 |  13.5-14.2 |     15.462 |
07-29 | 13.33   13.7  | ========== |            |            |            |  13.1-14.0 |     "      |
07-30 | 13.45   13.63 |  13.4-13.9 | 2011-07-31 |            |            |            |     "      |
07-31 | 12.8    14.9  |  13.4-13.8 | ========== | 2011-08-02 |            |            |     "      |
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 |  13.4-13.8 |  13.1-13.5 | ========== |            |            |     "      |
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  |  13.2-13.8 |  13.0-13.5 |  13.0-13.5 |            |            |  12.145-   |
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  |            |  13.0-13.4 |  13.3-13.8 |            |            |   14.534-  |
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 |            |  13.0-13.3 |  13.6-14.1 | 2011-08-06 |            |    16.426- |
08-05 |  9.5    11    |            |  12.966-   |  13.1-14.1 | ========== |            |     18.251 |
08-06 |  5.75   10    |            |   13.238-  |  12.258-   |  5.26-     | 2011-08-07 |     "      |
08-07 |  6       9.5  |            |    13.883- |   12.734-  |  6.32-8.65 | ========== |     "      |
08-08 |               |            |     14.468 |    13.554- |  6.35-6.56 |  6.76-8.08 |     "      |
08-09 |               |            |     "      |     14.079 |  6.37-6.52 |  5.93-7.55 |     "      |
08-10 |               |            |     "      |     "      |  4.61-6.44 |  5.93-6.28 |     "      |
08-11 |               |            |     "      |     "      |  2.329-    |  6.02-6.75 |     "      |
08-12 |               |            |     "      |  12.550-   |            |            |     "      |
08-13 |               |            |     "      |   12.748-  |            |            |  15.995-   |
08-14 |               |            |     "      |    13.228- |            |            |   16.592-  |
08-15 |               |            |  12.834-   |     13.383 |            |            |    19.379- |
08-16 |               |            |   13.253-  |     "      |            |            |     19.977 |
08-17 |               |            |    14.176- |     "      |            |            |     "      |
08-18 |               |            |     14.871 |     "      |            |            |     "      |
08-19 |               |            |     "      |     "      |            |            |     "      |

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
1481128338
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481128338

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481128338
Reply with quote  #2

1481128338
Report to moderator
1481128338
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481128338

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481128338
Reply with quote  #2

1481128338
Report to moderator
1481128338
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481128338

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481128338
Reply with quote  #2

1481128338
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481128338
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481128338

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481128338
Reply with quote  #2

1481128338
Report to moderator
1481128338
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481128338

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481128338
Reply with quote  #2

1481128338
Report to moderator
1481128338
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481128338

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481128338
Reply with quote  #2

1481128338
Report to moderator
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 08, 2011, 03:41:41 AM
 #122

If it makes any sense, I'd still appreciate side comments on those 'low value' correlations. For example, in a recent post you saw $2 in the crystal ball and then retracted it yesterday to $6. Both of those data are interesting.

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
xali
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 93


View Profile
August 08, 2011, 05:59:56 AM
 #123

u should make a website and post updates, and then put that description somewhere there too
If you want to digest the posts somewhere—knock yourself out...

Is that permission to make a website out of it?

Smiley ;/)
oakpacific
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798


View Profile
August 08, 2011, 02:17:57 PM
 #124

I've updated the previous chart with most (all?) of Chodpaba's text predictions including today's. I have not tried to extract numbers from his graphic charts. Below is a simplified table.

On the left we have dates MM-DD followed by the actually daily high and low at Mt. Gox. In the right most columns are Chodpaba's predictions for each day below the date of the prediction. Chodpaba provided two types of predictions: explicit high low for each day (I've rounded and ignored the variance), and ~weekly ranges.

For example, under 2011-07-21 Chodpaba made four predictions for the 22, 23, 24, and 25 July. We can see the actual low for 22 July was $13.45, high 13.8, but Chodpaba predicted $13.5-14 the day before. For the 25th, Chodpaba made five predictions on that and the previous days from 2011-07-21 to 2011-07-25. The actual day's price range was $13.75-14.7; Chodpaba predicted $13.4-15 four days earlier, and skipping across $13.5-14.4 the day before. On the day of the 25th he also made a range prediction (the last column) with 13.448-14.239 inner range and 12.895-15.462 outer range over the week from 25 July to 1 August.

In order to compress the table, I've moved many of the of the later predictions under earlier predictions. So, for example Chodpaba's predictions made on 2011-07-29 share the same column as 2011-07-21. I hope that doesn't confuse too much. Maybe I'll be so motivated to put this in HTML and update it frequently. Though I only put it together as a reaction to negative posts. Franky I think Chodpaba's been solidly on, although his earlier month-in-advance were way off and he failed to predict the drop on 4 August. But on balance, I think Chodpaba'a predictions have been disturbingly accurate.

Code:
Actual  Low     High    2011-07-21
        =====   ====  | ========== | 2011-07-22 | 2011-07-23 |
07-22 | 13.45   13.8  |  13.5-14.0 | ========== | ========== |
07-23 | 13.51   13.76 |  13.3-14.3 |  13.2-14.1 |  13.4-14.1 | 2011-07-24 |            | 2011-07-25 |
07-24 | 13.63   14.1  |  13.4-14.8 |  13.2-14.6 |  13.2-14.3 | ========== | 2011-07-25 | ========== |
07-25 | 13.75   14.7  |  13.4-15.0 |  13.2-14.6 |  12.9-14.0 |  13.5-14.4 | ========== |  12.895-   |
07-26 | 13.77   14.05 |            |  14.0-15.5 |  12.8-13.6 |  13.3-14.2 |  13.6-14.6 |   13.448-  |
07-27 | 13.68   14.13 |            |            |            |  13.2-13.8 |  13.5-14.3 |    14.239- |
07-28 | 13.3    13.95 | 2011-07-29 |            |            |  13.1-13.8 |  13.5-14.2 |     15.462 |
07-29 | 13.33   13.7  | ========== |            |            |            |  13.1-14.0 |     "      |
07-30 | 13.45   13.63 |  13.4-13.9 | 2011-07-31 |            |            |            |     "      |
07-31 | 12.8    14.9  |  13.4-13.8 | ========== | 2011-08-02 |            |            |     "      |
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 |  13.4-13.8 |  13.1-13.5 | ========== |            |            |     "      |
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  |  13.2-13.8 |  13.0-13.5 |  13.0-13.5 |            |            |  12.145-   |
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  |            |  13.0-13.4 |  13.3-13.8 |            |            |   14.534-  |
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 |            |  13.0-13.3 |  13.6-14.1 | 2011-08-06 |            |    16.426- |
08-05 |  9.5    11    |            |  12.966-   |  13.1-14.1 | ========== |            |     18.251 |
08-06 |  5.75   10    |            |   13.238-  |  12.258-   |  5.26-     | 2011-08-07 |     "      |
08-07 |  6       9.5  |            |    13.883- |   12.734-  |  6.32-8.65 | ========== |     "      |
08-08 |               |            |     14.468 |    13.554- |  6.35-6.56 |  6.76-8.08 |     "      |
08-09 |               |            |     "      |     14.079 |  6.37-6.52 |  5.93-7.55 |     "      |
08-10 |               |            |     "      |     "      |  4.61-6.44 |  5.93-6.28 |     "      |
08-11 |               |            |     "      |     "      |  2.329-    |  6.02-6.75 |     "      |
08-12 |               |            |     "      |  12.550-   |            |            |     "      |
08-13 |               |            |     "      |   12.748-  |            |            |  15.995-   |
08-14 |               |            |     "      |    13.228- |            |            |   16.592-  |
08-15 |               |            |  12.834-   |     13.383 |            |            |    19.379- |
08-16 |               |            |   13.253-  |     "      |            |            |     19.977 |
08-17 |               |            |    14.176- |     "      |            |            |     "      |
08-18 |               |            |     14.871 |     "      |            |            |     "      |
08-19 |               |            |     "      |     "      |            |            |     "      |

Thanks a lot for your work, it seems that people who really try to help others always won't bother to put a donation link in their sigs.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 08, 2011, 10:39:55 PM
 #125

(Google trend)

This one worries me. Google trend is the number of queries, not the awareness (which would be more cumulative). Does that mean that if/when bitcoin is mainstream and no longer query/news worthy then the price will be $0?

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 08, 2011, 11:19:08 PM
 #126

That makes sense. G Trends seemed to be predictive on the way up to $32 but was meaningless on the way down.

Chodpaba out of curiousity, if it's not too much trouble, could you apply crude, silver, and gold to the DJI. Oil (and bitcoin!) seems to follow the stock market perfectly (NASDAQ, S&P) gold is a mirror inverse and silver is drunk walking. Brent crude, bitcoin, silver, gold:

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
epii
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 01:08:54 AM
 #127

Following this...

Vires In Numeris.
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 09, 2011, 02:38:53 AM
 #128

So, the market is either going up, otherwise it will go down. Smiley Looks like better rewards betting on Scenario 1.

Code:
Actual Low     High   2011-07-06  2011-07-10                                                                                                 |
Date    =====   ====   ==========  ==========                                                                                                 | Date
07-06 | 13      16.5  | 10.735-   | 11.763-   |                                                                                               | 07-06
07-07 | 14.5    15.9  |  14.267-  |  13.615-  |                                                                                               | 07-07
07-08 | 13.9    15.6  |   18.370- |   15.604- |                                                                                               | 07-08
07-09 | 14.04   14.7  |    22.269 |    16.535 |            day 11..14                                                                         | 07-09
07-10 | 14.35   15.7  |    "      |    "      |            ==========                                                                         | 07-10
07-11 | 13.8    15.2  |    "      |    "      |2011-07-13 | 14.0-14.5 |                                                                       | 07-11
07-12 | 13.9    14.65 |    "      |    "      |========== | 13.9-14.6 |                                                                       | 07-12
07-13 | 13.9    14.15 |    "      |    "      | 11.833-   | 13.6-15.8 |                                                                       | 07-13
07-14 | 13.7    14.07 |    "      |    "      |  14.339-  | 13.6-14.2 |                                                                       | 07-14
07-15 | 13.5    14.07 |    "      |    "      |   16.863- |           |                                                                       | 07-15
07-16 | 13.5    13.8  |    "      |    "      |    18.028 |           |                                                                       | 07-16
07-17 | 13      13.75 |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |                                                                       | 07-17
07-18 | 12.5    14.6  |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |                                                                       | 07-18
07-19 | 13.5    14.7  | 10.047-   | 10.852-   | 12.738-   |           |                                                                       | 07-19
07-20 | 13.4    14    |  13.352-  |  13.870-  |   15.244- |           |2011-07-21                                                             | 07-20
07-21 | 13.4    13.8  |   17.193- |   15.325- |   17.228- |           |========== |2011-07-22 |2011-07-23                                     | 07-21
07-22 | 13.45   13.8  |    20.842 |    16.834 |    19.142 |           | 13.5-14.0 |========== |==========                                     | 07-22
07-23 | 13.51   13.76 |    "      |    "      |    "      |2011-07-25 | 13.3-14.3 | 13.2-14.1 | 13.4-14.1 |2011-07-24                         | 07-23
07-24 | 13.63   14.1  |    "      |    "      |    "      |========== | 13.4-14.8 | 13.2-14.6 | 13.2-14.3 |==========  2011-07-25             | 07-24
07-25 | 13.75   14.7  |    "      |    "      |    "      | 12.895-   | 13.4-15.0 | 13.2-14.6 | 12.9-14.0 | 13.5-14.4 |==========             | 07-25
07-26 | 13.77   14.05 |    "      |    "      |    "      |  13.448-  |           | 14.0-15.5 | 12.8-13.6 | 13.3-14.2 | 13.6-14.6 |           | 07-26
07-27 | 13.68   14.13 |    "      |    "      |    "      |   14.239- |           |           |           | 13.2-13.8 | 13.5-14.3 |           | 07-27
07-28 | 13.3    13.95 |    "      |    "      |    "      |    15.462 |           |           |           | 13.1-13.8 | 13.5-14.2 |2011-07-29 | 07-28
07-29 | 13.33   13.7  |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 13.1-14.0 |========== | 07-29
07-30 | 13.45   13.63 |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |2011-07-31 |           |           |           |           | 13.4-13.9 | 07-30
07-31 | 12.8    14.9  |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |========== |2011-08-02 |           |           |           | 13.4-13.8 | 07-31
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 | 10.085-   | 12.775-   |    "      |    "      | 13.1-13.5 |========== |           |           |           | 13.4-13.8 | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  |  13.403-  |  14.569-  | 16.775-   | 12.145-   | 13.0-13.5 | 13.0-13.5 |           |           |           | 13.2-13.8 | 08-02
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  |   17.257- |   18.232- |  17.402-  |  14.534-  | 13.0-13.4 | 13.3-13.8 |           |           |           |           | 08-03
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 |    20.920 |    20.361 |   20.325- |   16.426- | 13.0-13.3 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 |           |           |           | 08-04
08-05 |  9.5    11    |    "      |    "      |    20.952 |    18.251 | 12.966-   | 13.1-14.1 |========== |           |           |           | 08-05
08-06 |  5.75   10    |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |  13.238-  | 12.258-   | 5.26-     |2011-08-07 |     08-08 |     08-08 | 08-06
08-07 |  6       9.5  |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |   13.883- |  12.734-  | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 | 08-07
08-08 |  7.05    8.1  |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    14.468 |   13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== | 08-08
08-09 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 | 08-09
08-10 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 08-10
08-11 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      | 2.329-    | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 08-11
08-12 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      | 12.550-   |           |           | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 08-12
08-13 |               |    "      |    "      | 20.117-   | 15.995-   |    "      |  12.748-  |           |           |           |           | 08-13
08-14 |               | 20.573-   | 19.498-   |  20.830-  |  16.592-  |    "      |   13.228- |           |           |           |           | 08-14
08-15 |               |  27.342-  |  20.464-  |   22.692- |   19.379- | 12.834-   |    13.383 |           |           |           |           | 08-15
08-16 |               |   35.206- |   28.627- |    31.324 |    19.977 |  13.253-  |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-16
08-17 |               |    42.678 |    53.838 |    "      |    "      |   14.176- |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-17
08-18 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    14.871 |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-18
08-19 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-19
08-20 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-20
08-21 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-21
08-22 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-22
08-23 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-23
08-24 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-24
08-25 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-25
08-26 |               |           |    "      |           |           |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-26
08-27 |               |           |           |           |           |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-27
08-28 |               |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-28

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 09, 2011, 04:29:52 AM
 #129

Seriously? You say that after the $150K push to $9 within the past hour? (I added your predictive histories above Cheesy)

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
newMeat1
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 04:31:59 AM
 #130

Yeah sorry Chod. I used to be a believer, but it's starting to look like you're pulling things out of your @!!. Mostly based on the movement in the past week or so...

oakpacific
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798


View Profile
August 09, 2011, 11:46:48 AM
 #131

Hi, Chod, I have been reading this and it gives me quite a bit help, so I'll give my two cents, which migh actullay be worthless, but anyway, here it goes.

I actually somehow found out about the rally beforehand because in one of the markets I trade, Britcoin, the highest bidding price for BTC is constantly and suspiciously higher than that of Mt.Gox by a large margin, during the whole weekend, as you can see from this graph from http://fnoose.com/bitcoin/arbitrage/, the arbitrage profit margin skyrocketd in the last few days, when Mt.Gox price was taking a dip:

  


then I assume that someone may be buying in large quantites to prepare for a big uptrend attack yet don't want to move the Mt.Gox price yet, I might be totally wrong, but all I want to say is: maybe the ride in price between markets is some useful information you could include in your model.(Or if you have alreaady done that, just ignore me)

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
Piper67
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1008



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 02:11:46 PM
 #132

Monkey, meet ouija board... Ouija board, meet monkey  Grin
TraderTimm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 04:32:03 PM
 #133

Now that Scenarios 1 and 2 have been blown out of the water  Tongue...

I am now looking at Scenario 3. It still seems to be dependent on where we end up on the day. Generally, the prices that I would expect going forward will be higher if we end up higher, and lower if we end up lower. As I see it right now, if we do not test new highs or new lows for the day the threshold for the 24 hour price looks like $8.22 to avoid a dip below $7.00 over the next four days. For what it is worth, I place a 75% confidence level on that outcome. If it looks like things have changed I will post an update. But I will still post the four day targets after 12am GMT.


Don't sweat it, my model looks like a sheet hung out in a hurricane. You're doing better than that, by a long shot. I'm interested as well to see if we maintain a 10 dollar support level in the next 24 hours.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 10, 2011, 01:18:06 AM
 #134

Code:
Actual Low     High   2011-08-02                                                               Date
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 |========== |           |           |           |           |           | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  | 13.0-13.5 |           |           |           |           |           | 08-02
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  | 13.3-13.8 |           |           |           |           |           | 08-03
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 |           |           |           |           | 08-04
08-05 |  9.5    11    | 13.1-14.1 |========== |           |           |           |           | 08-05
08-06 |  5.75   10    | 12.258-   | 5.26-     |2011-08-07 |     08-08 |     08-08 |           | 08-06
08-07 |  6       9.5  |  12.734-  | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 |           | 08-07
08-08 |  7.05    8.1  |   13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== |2011-08-09 | 08-08
08-09 |  7.7    12.1  |    14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 |========== | 08-09
08-10 |               |    "      | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 7.90-10.2 | 08-10
08-11 |               |    "      | 2.329-    | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 7.90-8.41 | 08-11
08-12 |               | 12.550-   |           |           | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 7.78-8.31 | 08-12
08-13 |               |  12.748-  |           |           |           |           | 7.78-8.75 | 08-13
08-14 |               |   13.228- |           |           |           |           |           | 08-14
08-15 |               |    13.383 |           |           |           |           |           | 08-15
08-16 |               |    "      |           |           |           |           |           | 08-16

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
grod
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154


View Profile
August 12, 2011, 06:15:58 AM
 #135

It's shocking we had as much correlation as we had.

Everyone came to a concensus on a 5.80 as a rock solid resistence using our collective crystal balls, analytics, guts, asses and lo and behold that's exactly what happened.  You also called a relatively immediate $12, which my ass didn't see as likely at all.

So overall, excellent predictive results even though time frames don't seem to match up precisely.  If only we had derivatives which let us act on expected volatility.   Then again, if we did have them perhaps we wouldn't have such spectacular manic/depressive cycles.

newMeat1
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210



View Profile
August 12, 2011, 06:50:49 PM
 #136

How are you coming up with these price targets? Do you fit a polynomial to the data?

newMeat1
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210



View Profile
August 12, 2011, 07:31:39 PM
 #137

So it's kind of a fuzzy logic approach, where you take all these different factors into account with one huge equation? Like,

new_Price= Old_Price * (1 + 0.1 if it's Friday - 0.05 if Volume was low yesterday + ...)

Vladimir
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 812


-


View Profile
August 12, 2011, 07:40:13 PM
 #138


-
Oldminer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022



View Profile
August 13, 2011, 06:20:42 AM
 #139

2011-08-14   $9.207   $10.130
2011-08-15   $8.808   $9.490
2011-08-16   $8.840   $9.133
2011-08-17   $8.775   $9.295

All due respect (IMO your a very intelligent guy) but didnt your analysis also predict a value of $10 - $13 over the next few days the day before it crashed to $6  Huh

If you like my post please feel free to give me some positive rep https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=18639
Tip me BTC: 1FBmoYijXVizfYk25CpiN8Eds9J6YiRDaX
fcmatt
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1106


View Profile
August 13, 2011, 06:39:04 AM
 #140

2011-08-14   $9.207   $10.130
2011-08-15   $8.808   $9.490
2011-08-16   $8.840   $9.133
2011-08-17   $8.775   $9.295

All due respect (IMO your a very intelligent guy) but didnt your analysis also predict a value of $10 - $13 over the next few days the day before it crashed to $6  Huh

i have to wonder if a large event(s) happens like the exchange losing it's btc and mybitcoin finally known to be owned... would
throw out any guess on pricing and cannot really be held against a person....

so here we have a bitcoin conference coming up and i have to wonder if chodpada is putting that into his calculations at all.
we could very well see people buying in expectation that some media attention might create a burst up days/week after the conference.

or is a pure math guess without taking into account external influences.. basically assuming several normal trading days without big news
to look forward to.

i have not read this whole thread.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!