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Flappy
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January 04, 2012, 09:36:07 PM
 #441

Bitcoinica came online September.  That could explain the strong negative OBV at that time.  The violent spikes we're seeing now could also be Bitcoinica's bot equalizing.
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ineededausername
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January 05, 2012, 04:08:07 AM
 #442

The rally is bringing these hilariously tall walls down!  Is the slope of 0 on the bid side and the steep slope on the ask side supposed to be an indication of a coming reversal?  I don't see it!

(BFL)^2 < 0
dree12
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January 05, 2012, 02:45:37 PM
 #443

The last charts have a resistance overlapping the support. Is this by design or an error?
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January 06, 2012, 12:39:56 AM
 #444

That big blue wall doesn't scare me... we've blown through it several times Smiley

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January 07, 2012, 02:53:49 AM
 #445

Please comment your picture.
Does it mean that we are at "equal opportunity" point?

Where do you think the price will go ?
antoineph
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January 07, 2012, 03:16:46 AM
 #446

Please comment your picture.
Does it mean that we are at "equal opportunity" point?

Where do you think the price will go ?

I believe it could go either way. If people knew they would already have made their moves. Up to the first big mover perhaps.
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January 07, 2012, 11:27:27 AM
 #447

Please comment your picture.
Does it mean that we are at "equal opportunity" point?

Where do you think the price will go ?

The chart is not intended to show a direction for price, but to give you an idea of how far to expect price to move given a certain amount of volume. Since it is based on long term data I consider it to be a better guide for judging support or resistance than market depth, which can change at the drop of a hat.


For me, its the times when those Support/Resistance slopes look like the MtGox depth that confirms the predictive value of chodpaba's charts  Smiley

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January 09, 2012, 02:31:54 AM
 #448



So we ate through two days of resistance and filled in the support.  Good weekend everyone, get ready to continue the rally.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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StewartJ
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January 09, 2012, 03:32:46 AM
 #449

Asking myself, where is the volume?


I am looking at the 30-day hourly chart and it seems to me that the first week of January is the answer to your question.

Volume was all spent driving us from the steady trading range of $5 up to $6 and then to $7 dollars.

The volume is played out, for now. Everyone seems to be hedging on the next big move before buying or selling.

A proper correction would have us trading around $5, but instead we're stuck hovering before the next rally or slip downward.



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January 13, 2012, 12:53:30 AM
 #450

I finally have an account to post.  Thank you for this thread!
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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.


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January 14, 2012, 01:33:28 PM
 #451

Can you make the tickmarks on the axes make more sense? They're hard to parse right now, especially on the horizontal axis.

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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.


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January 14, 2012, 03:54:40 PM
 #452

Ah okay, that helps. It confused me for a while.
What program do you use to generate the graphical part of the graphs? Something you made yourself?

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January 14, 2012, 03:55:38 PM
 #453

So... we have more buyer than seller pressure?
bb113
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January 16, 2012, 12:51:35 AM
 #454

Can we get ghostlines on these? Like from 24 hours ago?
Mushoz
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January 16, 2012, 12:54:41 AM
 #455

Can we get ghostlines on these? Like from 24 hours ago?

Ooooh, that would be interesting! Great idea!

www.bitbuy.nl - Koop eenvoudig, snel en goedkoop bitcoins bij Bitbuy!
bb113
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January 16, 2012, 05:22:34 AM
 #456

Can we get ghostlines on these? Like from 24 hours ago?

Nope, just the earlier posts.

To tell you the truth I am not even very interested in the earlier ones because the history gets incorporated into the latest graph.

After posting, I felt bad even asking you to do anything extra without contributing something myself. I have been reading this thread off and on for months and think it is an excellent experiment. My understanding is that currently you are calculating a lagging indicator... I think that including ghostlines would allow qualitative assessment of how well this could work as a leading indicator without requiring much effort. Unless I am wrong, what we see in your charts now is the probability of repeating price movements given the history. To predict the future we should look for the probability of various price histories given that a price movement occurs. Calculating this may require many simulations of price movements and thus be difficult and expensive. I have no idea.

Honestly, I know nothing about trading besides what I've observed in the bitcoin market and read on these forums. I am just applying Bayes' rule. I can't stress enough that I may not know what I am talking about; so please give me shit for it if it makes no sense. Or better, explain why I am wrong.
bb113
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January 16, 2012, 06:40:35 AM
 #457

Godspeed then. You are doing an awesome thing, and I hope your algorithm works well enough that you will have the motivation/time to share it with the rest of us one day.
notme
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January 16, 2012, 06:41:31 AM
 #458

Godspeed then. You are doing an awesome thing, and I hope your algorithm works well enough that you will have the motivation/time to share it with the rest of us one day.

He used to share it... look back through the thread.  He quit because forum leaches were cutting into his profits.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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bb113
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January 16, 2012, 06:55:46 AM
 #459

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.
notme
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January 16, 2012, 07:08:18 AM
 #460

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.

Yes, I agree he has been generous.

Historical data:
http://bitcoincharts.com/about/markets-api/

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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