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grod
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September 03, 2011, 07:08:15 AM
 #201

Perhaps once you reach those levels things become a bit easier to make quick trades.

And perhaps mtgox front running and trading their own market at 0% effective commission means you'd never get profitable enough to reach those levels.

Bitcoin is the Wild West.   The daring get either obscenely rewarded or brutally raped (with a high rape/reward ratio, IMO).  I'm not wealthy enough to trade this bad boy for real.  I'll stick to shorting naked puts 5-6 days a month for my regular trading adrenalin fix, thanks.
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September 03, 2011, 08:28:15 AM
 #202

I'll stick to shorting naked puts 5-6 days a month for my regular trading adrenalin fix, thanks.

Haha, I know you have to be kidding - but I actually saw an entire broker pool go broke doing that in the Swiss Franc futures. Not a pretty sight. One day they were there, the next day new guys were standing in the pit Smiley

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September 04, 2011, 05:19:28 AM
 #203

It occurs to me that giving three different sets of numbers like that, and a chart to boot might seem a bit muddied. I have tried to digest my analysis down to the essentials, because the amount of stuff I look at is kind of ridiculous. Is it confusing? Useful?

It's a good sanity check for expectations. You might update less often... the range hasn't changed much in the last few days.

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September 04, 2011, 05:42:28 AM
 #204

I just learn about this, It's awesome, thank you

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September 04, 2011, 10:35:24 PM
 #205

I know your model looses too much accuracy as distance from the present increases, i won't hold it against you if the data is way off; but i'm curious, what is the earliest, the latest, the average, and the best guess date when it says Bitcoin will reach 30 bucks again right now?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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gw4tt
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September 04, 2011, 11:41:58 PM
 #206

Might never go back to $30.
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September 04, 2011, 11:51:40 PM
 #207

Might never go back to $30.
And you might get hit by a meteor while you're laying on the ground convulsing after getting hit by a lightning while you were celebrating winning the lottery.

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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iBug
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September 05, 2011, 12:11:50 AM
 #208

Might never go back to $30.
And you might get hit by a meteor while you're laying on the ground convulsing after getting hit by a lightning while you were celebrating winning the lottery.
There's nothing wrong with gw4tt's answer. Sorry if you're not satisfied by his answer, but his answer is 100% correct ...

You're asking for "the earliest, the latest, the average, and the best guess date when it says Bitcoin will reach 30 bucks again right now" ?

earliest guess date: today, in a few hours
latest guess date: unfortunately, never
average guess date: some time in the future
best guess date: /

Yes, I'm trolling around. But my point is: How should anyone in here be able to predict the future ? You just can't do that.

If you want the $/BTC ratio to reach 30, I can tell you how to do that. Just deposit $100,000 in a trading market with a very low volume and buy all offered Bitcoins up to 30 $/BTC. Et voilà ... job done.
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September 05, 2011, 12:32:30 AM
 #209

Might never go back to $30.
And you might get hit by a meteor while you're laying on the ground convulsing after getting hit by a lightning while you were celebrating winning the lottery.
There's nothing wrong with gw4tt's answer. Sorry if you're not satisfied by his answer, but his answer is 100% correct ...

You're asking for "the earliest, the latest, the average, and the best guess date when it says Bitcoin will reach 30 bucks again right now" ?

earliest guess date: today, in a few hours
latest guess date: unfortunately, never
average guess date: some time in the future
best guess date: /

Yes, I'm trolling around. But my point is: How should anyone in here be able to predict the future ? You just can't do that.

If you want the $/BTC ratio to reach 30, I can tell you how to do that. Just deposit $100,000 in a trading market with a very low volume and buy all offered Bitcoins up to 30 $/BTC. Et voilà ... job done.

where will drop back to at list 10 because a lot of people will not trust will stay there and everybody will like to to Cash out... untill BTC will be less speculation and more Currency there is no way will go back to high price in short term

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TiagoTiago
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September 05, 2011, 12:46:47 AM
 #210

...

...But my point is: How should anyone in here be able to predict the future ? You just can't do that.

...
Isn't trying to predict the future pretty much the goal of chod's approach?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

The more you believe in Bitcoin, and the more you show you do to other people, the faster the real value will soar!

Do you like mmmBananas?!
TiagoTiago
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September 05, 2011, 08:28:24 AM
 #211

Estimating the likelihoods of events for the next few days, IMO, is pretty close to being just another way of saying you're trying to predict the future.

I wasn't aware the computational requirements increased significantly for making predictions further into the future than just a few days though, i assumed the predictions would just get significantly less certain. If i knew  answering my question would require significantly more work than what you were already doing i don't think i would've asked it.

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

The more you believe in Bitcoin, and the more you show you do to other people, the faster the real value will soar!

Do you like mmmBananas?!
proudhon
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September 05, 2011, 04:42:06 PM
 #212

Apparently, one of my updates got eaten... Here it is again.
For Monday.

IQR: $7.53-10.45
Median range: $7.88-$10.00

The amount of resistance we would have to move through from the day's 'open' suggest to me it is unlikely that anything over $9.10 would be achieved today, but I would not expect the low to be below $7.80... If a decisive move beyond either of these limits happens then lookout...

Lookout.
grod
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September 05, 2011, 06:11:59 PM
 #213

Apparently, one of my updates got eaten... Here it is again.
For Monday.

IQR: $7.53-10.45
Median range: $7.88-$10.00

The amount of resistance we would have to move through from the day's 'open' suggest to me it is unlikely that anything over $9.10 would be achieved today, but I would not expect the low to be below $7.80... If a decisive move beyond either of these limits happens then lookout...

Lookout.

Could be interesting.  Everyone bought in at 6.58 and below last time, expecting that to be a highly temporary buying opportunity.  I wonder how much cash is on the sidelines to provide support this time around.  I wonder about the thoughts of those previously looking at 50% profits and "to the sky" sentiment now staring at 15% and shrinking.

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September 05, 2011, 06:14:25 PM
 #214

Apparently, one of my updates got eaten... Here it is again.
For Monday.

IQR: $7.53-10.45
Median range: $7.88-$10.00

The amount of resistance we would have to move through from the day's 'open' suggest to me it is unlikely that anything over $9.10 would be achieved today, but I would not expect the low to be below $7.80... If a decisive move beyond either of these limits happens then lookout...

Lookout.

This is why we are using some more flexible charting tools to predict BTCUSD. Rather than predicting each days range, we predict overall trends and price targets.

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grod
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September 05, 2011, 09:27:29 PM
 #215


This is why we are using some more flexible charting tools to predict BTCUSD. Rather than predicting each days range, we predict overall trends and price targets.

And people forget that's the point of charting.  Patterns, once formed, are *lagging* indicators of price.  They're good for confirming trends and forecasting where price *might* go *if* trends remain unbroken.

Some indicators give signals which have a high correlation to a trend reversing.

Chart reading is NOT a time machine.  It's a way to assign probability weights to higher, lower, or same prices over a time interval.

That said chodpaba's charts and forecasts creep me out.  They're eerily predictive.

Litt
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September 06, 2011, 12:04:29 AM
 #216

Apparently, one of my updates got eaten... Here it is again.
For Monday.

IQR: $7.53-10.45
Median range: $7.88-$10.00

The amount of resistance we would have to move through from the day's 'open' suggest to me it is unlikely that anything over $9.10 would be achieved today, but I would not expect the low to be below $7.80... If a decisive move beyond either of these limits happens then lookout...

Lookout.

This is why we are using some more flexible charting tools to predict BTCUSD. Rather than predicting each days range, we predict overall trends and price targets.

It could be as flexible as you would like, if you want 2% bars I can show those too. Incidentally the lower 2% bar for today is $5.08... But there is still strong support at $6.30.

I know it is not a traditional method of presenting the forecast, but it suits my purposes, and is there for anyone else it suits as well.

Suits me just fine. Keeping it simple appeals to me more rather than wordy and lengthy explanations to justify one's own predictions.
Minsc
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September 07, 2011, 06:12:49 AM
 #217

If $7.10 is broken there is not much to keep it from going to $7.80.

Someone made a bidwall at 6.66 and this is what made it go up.  It is satan's influence on the bitcoin.

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apetersson
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September 07, 2011, 06:17:47 AM
 #218

chodpaba, your new graphs rock! they look great!
keep up the good work!
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September 08, 2011, 05:52:48 PM
 #219

IQR: $6.51-$7.74
Median range: $6.88-$7.61

My interpretation is that we opened near the lows for the day, $7.50 seems easy, and the high end of the IQR appears likely.

I love your work, but hate when your intuition is wrong. Wink Day's not over yet, I guess!
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September 08, 2011, 10:21:21 PM
 #220

The new chart looks great, but I still think that your model is too rigid and will does not account for the emotional, herding forces that are behind the market. Chart patterns and ElliottWaves do a better job, in my humble p.o.v. Your model might work in 80% of the time when there is almost no movement in prices, but then it is completely wrong when prices move in either direction, smashing through your support / resistance levels, and then make people fall out of the bed when they see that :-)

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