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fcmatt
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September 14, 2011, 08:50:32 PM
 #241

Wednesday.
Everything got kind of smushed together there, looks like a narrow spread.



If you spaced orders between the 25% and 75% bars you already have orders filled and you made money...

I am having a harder time interpreting that graph then before and when you say 25% and 75%.. i see the
values but it is just not making sense to me. Sure I could study it for another 10-15 minutes and probably
have an "aha!" moment.. but it seems to be hard to get at a glance.

for example, the "low price probability" is a thin orange line. Why do you draw a rectangle with it and
then have a line going through the middle of it breaking it into two rectangles?

It is things like that I am not getting.
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September 14, 2011, 08:59:06 PM
 #242

Great work as always.   

Lower BTC prices are making it easier for you, our absolute % moves are getting huge relative to the past few months.  Volatility is really picking up and the 25/75% ranges are as wide as the West.  I may have to cough up that "penny bot" after all.
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September 14, 2011, 11:08:51 PM
 #243

Hi Chodpaba, perhaps if you made one of the H-boxes taller than the other or not cross at all (for example the orange box where it is, but the blue box typically in the top right corner (quad I)). It could only help or confuse even more. Smiley

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September 15, 2011, 02:21:53 AM
 #244

Perhaps text on or under the graph such as
lo2%:$4.15
25%:$5.31
50%:$5.49
etc
Thanks again for publishing your results!

EDIT: Or if you have the full rainbow of % predictions anyway, maybe drop the resistance/support lines and draw two curves: y-axis:%, x-axis:$

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fcmatt
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September 15, 2011, 05:19:32 AM
 #245

well the model is getting tested right now pretty darn well.
and thanks for the explanation.
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September 15, 2011, 08:34:50 PM
 #246

The math is funky as hell, and not intuitive at all... But by arbitraging probability, not price, I am up on the day... Every day.

Meaning? You were mostly short on BTC today? Any long position would have been nailed an hour ago for
a pretty hefty loss.

I guess by using fancy terms, instead of speaking plainly, stating you are up today.. and every day is
quite a bold claim. What did you exactly do today to make it profitable?

I imagine you do not want to tell any good strategies to the public but your statement above is just grass
and no meat.
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September 15, 2011, 10:43:08 PM
 #247

time frame for correlations is not fixed... time is not a fixed scale when it comes to price movements... there are times when markets move very slowly, and times when they move very quickly... calculations time agnostic and focusing in simply on the probability... results I have been able to get in this market have to do with price/probability arbitrage. Instead of focusing on when prices will happen I simply focus on the likelihood that they will happen. And I am happier for it.

Thanks for the shout out. Smiley Kudos to your order=spread(1-probability) and a hunch from your chart that $4.501 was about 10% probable, I'll sleep very well. Thanks!


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September 16, 2011, 12:42:53 AM
 #248

I reiterate to the Bitcoin stability hawks... A lower price means higher volatility.

Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.

Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.

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September 16, 2011, 02:11:09 AM
 #249

I reiterate to the Bitcoin stability hawks... A lower price means higher volatility.

Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.

Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.

I have come to think of trends as being rather illusory.
Is it just me, or are you talking like a psychic right now? The very phrases you use sometime confuse me.
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September 16, 2011, 03:14:21 AM
 #250

He is either a subgenius or just really really stupid. His slack is off the charts though.
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September 16, 2011, 05:30:23 AM
 #251

The Trend that can be told
   is not the eternal Trend
The name that can be named
   is not the eternal Name.

The unnamable is the eternally real.
Naming is the origin
   of all particular things.

Free from desire, you realize the mystery.
Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations.

Yet mystery and manifestations
   arise from the same source.
This source is called darkness.

Darkness within darkness.
The gateway to all understanding.

     --Lao Tzu

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old_engineer
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September 16, 2011, 06:21:30 AM
 #252

O great Miner in the sky, hallowed be thy random seeds, why haft thou forsooken us?  We burnt our USD as an offering, yet the price still droppeth, and we do not understand your machinations.


(Might as well devolve into mysticism...)
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September 16, 2011, 07:16:20 AM
 #253

I think the last time I checked this thread in july the trend was predicting btc prices upwards of 20$ by the end of august. You can't really predict the market unless you can see the big players imo.
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September 16, 2011, 07:45:34 AM
 #254


if you look at the last 6 month and its volativity where is the fair price of a currency/token/good that should be stable to really work for the people/masses? at 32 or 0.1?

bitmessage:BM-2D9c1oAbkVo96zDhTZ2jV6RXzQ9VG3A6f1​
threema:HXUAMT96
klaus
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September 16, 2011, 09:31:25 AM
 #255


klaus, can you explain to me how Bitcoin can have a stable exchange rate with a market capitalization measured in the tens of millions? There can be no hope for stability at these price levels as I see it. If you want a stable Bitcoin it will need some critical mass—a billion dollar market... So, any way you slice it usability comes first, stability comes later. A bit of a chicken-and-egg problem right there.

Any attempt at artificially stabilizing the Bitcoin exchange rate at these levels is bound to be unsustainable, because it will ultimately result in a lower exchange rate, keeping the market small, and making it prone to manipulation as those controls inevitably fail.

every word you say is true !

when market capitalization is x 20 or x 50 from now its stable enough to absorb a 100.000 US$ trade (whatever direction) without big move.

the only answer is a lot of time and meanwhile slow growth to get there. chicken-and-egg problem. only rally brings new investors with new money. but if that rally is to strong it will end like the june rally.

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September 16, 2011, 01:13:20 PM
 #256

I reiterate to the Bitcoin stability hawks... A lower price means higher volatility.

Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.

Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.

See that's why Bitcoin will be $0 very soon. October 6th, by my predictions:



If you hold out until Oct 28th, I estimate you'll actually be paid $4 for every bitcoin you buy.
xjosx
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September 16, 2011, 02:05:53 PM
 #257

I reiterate to the Bitcoin stability hawks... A lower price means higher volatility.

Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.

Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.

Same absolute change, different relative change. One represents a 25% drop in value, the other a 2.5% drop in value.
netrin
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September 16, 2011, 02:21:07 PM
 #258

that was my point. Smiley ...at least what I meant to distinguish. (Jixtreme I thought you were trolling and didn't see until Xjosx that the laugh was on me. Good show!)

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Jixtreme
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September 16, 2011, 02:40:24 PM
 #259

that was my point. Smiley ...at least what I meant to distinguish. (Jixtreme I thought you were trolling and didn't see until Xjosx that the laugh was on me. Good show!)

I knew you got it, I was trollin' the trolls Wink

I thought the "paid to buy Bitcoins" part would give me away!
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September 16, 2011, 02:54:19 PM
 #260

I reiterate to the Bitcoin stability hawks... A lower price means higher volatility.

Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.

Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.

See that's why Bitcoin will be $0 very soon. October 6th, by my predictions:



If you hold out until Oct 28th, I estimate you'll actually be paid $4 for every bitcoin you buy.
not listening to prople using linear scaling...  ;-)

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