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BTCurious
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October 28, 2011, 11:24:15 PM
 #361

Actually, the divide by zero comment was just a joke. But I see your point.
Fair enough, sorry for not getting that Smiley
I understand that your way of measuring resistance doesn't let you measure the resistance at 0, because we've never been there. Let me try to rephrase my thoughts then.

The whole concept of the prices feels to me like a relative concept: when the price is $20, and drops to $10, that will be just as bad for BTC holders as when it's $2 and drops to $1*.  As such, I feel the entire economy is better represented logarithmically. The whole business with $0 and infinity and whatnot is then just a by-effect, and not really my main point. Another example is: imagine the current price being 0.2, and keeping your axes scales the same. Your graph then wouldn't give much info on the lower resistance, while there certainly might be some.
You could do the same analysis, but just give the graph a logarithmic horizontal axis. I have a feeling that would be the more representative thing to do. Am I wrong here?

*Whether the hypothetical resistance for dropping from 20 to 10 is actually similar to the resistance for dropping from 2 to 1, is a good question. Human psychology might play a role, and skew the results here.

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BTCurious
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October 29, 2011, 01:18:14 AM
 #362

You have a point with the volume change. It's hard to tell what kind of visualization would 'make sense'.
So yeah, the slopes are not suddenly magically equal.
This does satisfy my curiosity though. Thanks! Cheesy

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October 29, 2011, 01:19:45 AM
 #363


You must never divide by zero...

Just don't do it.

If you can handle infinity, than go ahead and divide by zero, no problem at all. But if you cannot handle infinity, as for example  USS Yorktown, than perhaps yea it is not such a good idea after all, lol.

Quote
A system failure on the USS Yorktown last September temporarily paralyzed the cruiser, leaving it stalled in port for the remainder of a weekend.
"For about two-and-a-half hours, the ship was what we call 'dead in the water,'" said Commander John Singley of the Atlantic Fleet Surface Force.
...
The source of the problem on the Yorktown was that bad data was fed into an application running on one of the 16 computers on the LAN. The data contained a zero where it shouldn't have, and when the software attempted to divide by zero, a buffer overrun occurred -- crashing the entire network and causing the ship to lose control of its propulsion system.

http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/1998/07/13987


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2112
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October 29, 2011, 02:14:44 AM
 #364

I just read the posts by BTCurious and chodpaba and want to make another "not even trolling" comment.

The thing you call "psychological measure" is more formally called "perceptual distance". You can solve your problems by using LSD (no kidding!, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-spectral_distance) or even better http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itakura-Saito_distance.

There are two main problems with that approach:

1) the math involved is significantly more hairy, but on the other hand Paul Wilmott introduction is quite good; if somebody's willing to commit the time to understand it.
2) is that there's comparatively little openly published information about the use of nonlinear statistics in finance.

The current situation is that anyone who really knows nonlinear statistics and is willing to work in finance is probably already employed by some quantitative finance boutique.

Please comment, critique, criticize or ridicule BIP 2112: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=54382.0
Long-term mining prognosis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91101.0
teflone
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You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB


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October 29, 2011, 04:03:45 PM
 #365

This is starting to smell like a market reversal...

Was waiting for you to say that! lmao

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teflone
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October 30, 2011, 03:44:24 AM
 #366

This is starting to smell like a market reversal...

Was waiting for you to say that! lmao


I'm not saying that it looks like one of course... Not yet. But it does smell like one.

You said 3.36 was a reversal in your eyes...

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October 30, 2011, 03:45:00 AM
 #367

This is starting to smell like a market reversal...

Was waiting for you to say that! lmao


I'm not saying that it looks like one of course... Not yet. But it does smell like one.

You said 3.36 was a reversal in your eyes...

A preliminary indication of a reversal.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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[#][#][#]


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November 02, 2011, 12:04:18 AM
 #368

@chodpapa: i am curious where you get your amazing support-resistance charts from?!

greets
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November 02, 2011, 12:05:07 AM
 #369

@chodpapa: i am curious where you get your amazing support-resistance charts from?!

greets

It's something like
Days spent at price level / Days since that price

(BFL)^2 < 0
gewure
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November 02, 2011, 01:06:56 AM
 #370

can you manifacture a not logarythmic one for me?
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November 02, 2011, 01:32:13 AM
 #371

yay! you are the man Smiley

thanks!!
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November 03, 2011, 06:35:19 PM
 #372


By recent measures I'd call that 'stable'  Cheesy

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com


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November 03, 2011, 07:55:35 PM
 #373

+100 :DD

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maxll
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November 03, 2011, 08:35:34 PM
 #374

So now, we're going to 2.x again?  Roll Eyes


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BadBear
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November 04, 2011, 06:18:00 AM
 #375

So now, we're going to 2.x again?  Roll Eyes

Very likely.  There will be less support this time since a lot of buyers got in on the last crash, and will still be holding, or selling to further fuel the downward trend. 

1Kz25jm6pjNTaz8bFezEYUeBYfEtpjuKRG | PGP: B5797C4F

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netrin
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November 08, 2011, 05:53:09 AM
 #376

Muchos Gracias!

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November 08, 2011, 06:00:59 AM
 #377

In case you have not noticed, some nice trader has provided us with a sterling arbitrage opportunity between Gox and TradeHill...

The guy moved his bid up, but his lunch was being eaten by other would-be Tradehill sellers so he moved it back down again (is my take.)  He must want out pretty bad, and the block is getting chewed through pretty quick now it seems like.  But with some quick wiring of money and a bit of luck, one might be able to get in on the action.  Tradehill has never taken more than a bit over a day from when I send a wire till I am funded (if I do so on week days.)


netrin
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November 08, 2011, 06:20:33 AM
 #378

I hadn't looked at thUSD in a long time, I can see there've been fantastic bargains all week!!!

$2.6 on the first of the month. What's that, bitcoin deliveries?

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November 08, 2011, 07:56:03 AM
 #379

I hadn't looked at thUSD in a long time, I can see there've been fantastic bargains all week!!!

$2.6 on the first of the month. What's that, bitcoin deliveries?

And it seems that TradeHill is creeping up on Gox. They had been something less than 10% of Gox volume but lately they have been more than that fairly consistently.


I've watched things in this area pretty closely...one of my biggest sources of paranoia being that the exchange pulls a 'MF Global', and I am interested to know if they at least have the potential to be solvent.  My numbers are seat-of-the-pants, but...some months ago TH seemed to be catching up, but then fell back down to %10 (at best.)  The recent catch-up is just for the last few days and I think it mainly relates to that one huge sell order.

As for funding, even if one does keep a pretty good balance at multiple exchanges (which has it's own dangers as I've alluded to in the aforementioned) it is pretty easy to blow one's wad early and kinda hard to quickly re-balance the cash positions (at least I hear of serious nightmares trying to get cash out, though I've not run into any myself.)  The loss of arbitrage and subsequent drop-outs at Tradehill a few weeks ago speak to that I think.


netrin
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November 08, 2011, 06:16:07 PM
 #380

I would like to see TradeHill accept Mt.Gox codes (or some standard agreement), and let the two exchanges balance their credits rather than we little traders.

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
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