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dree12
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November 29, 2011, 03:28:43 AM
 #421

An observation evoked an idle musing.
Bitcoin started to be taken seriously at a parity of 1 USD. It then saw an awakening that lead to a peak of 31 USD. It then fell to around 1/10 of that between 1 and 3.1 USD. Speculators love orders of magnitude leveraging at increments of 10x but Bitcoin seems to respond to PI ratios. Let's look for the next bubble to go beyond 10*PI and then another 10*PI or around 9-10K USD. That liquidity should serve the geek market for development of new online apps. The next wave of development into sophisticated everyday useful finacial vehicles should take Bitcoin to another 10*PI or around 300K USD. After that, when fiat currencies are replaced by cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin will be worth the equivalent of another 10*PI or around 10M USD.

Sir, you have a sample size of exactly 1 (or 2 depending on how you look at it).  HUGE, eh?
Smiley

edit: I should note that pi is roughly the square root of 10.
Before anyone beats me to it:
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November 29, 2011, 03:51:51 AM
 #422

An observation evoked an idle musing.
Bitcoin started to be taken seriously at a parity of 1 USD. It then saw an awakening that lead to a peak of 31 USD. It then fell to around 1/10 of that between 1 and 3.1 USD. Speculators love orders of magnitude leveraging at increments of 10x but Bitcoin seems to respond to PI ratios. Let's look for the next bubble to go beyond 10*PI and then another 10*PI or around 9-10K USD. That liquidity should serve the geek market for development of new online apps. The next wave of development into sophisticated everyday useful finacial vehicles should take Bitcoin to another 10*PI or around 300K USD. After that, when fiat currencies are replaced by cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin will be worth the equivalent of another 10*PI or around 10M USD.

Sir, you have a sample size of exactly 1 (or 2 depending on how you look at it).  HUGE, eh?
Smiley

edit: I should note that pi is roughly the square root of 10.
Before anyone beats me to it:
[photo snipped]

Yes, PI is roughly the square root of ten. Interesting. Anyway, computing the predictability of a complex market adapting to bitcoin is hard to gauge. I suspect it will parallel the growth of internet bandwidth traffic.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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November 29, 2011, 11:21:48 AM
 #423


I agree, Bitcoin is in the developer's court at the moment.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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December 01, 2011, 02:40:12 PM
 #424

Hey, chodpaba, can you tell us how your experiment worked? Did you conclude that your daily charts were influencing the market?

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December 01, 2011, 02:45:59 PM
 #425

His latest chart didn't hold too well.  If there is a correlation, it might be negative.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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December 11, 2011, 03:46:32 AM
 #426

Just a little nudge over 3.2, and I suspect we'll coast to 4.

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December 11, 2011, 04:01:33 AM
 #427

Just a little nudge over 3.2, and I suspect we'll coast to 4.

Just a touch under 2.9 and I suspect we'll bounce off 2.4

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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December 13, 2011, 01:34:25 PM
 #428

Just a little nudge over 3.2, and I suspect we'll coast to 4.

Not anymore, pretty big ask wall went up at 3.50.


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December 13, 2011, 06:37:49 PM
 #429

Walls are fake. Or they get eaten.

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December 13, 2011, 06:39:47 PM
 #430

Walls are fake. Or they get eaten.

So, walls are fake or they're real.
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December 13, 2011, 06:45:45 PM
 #431

Walls are fake. Or they get eaten.

So, walls are fake or they're real.
Smiley sure. But if they're real, they don't survive very long when they're touched. I've never seen the price kicking a large wall like that for a long time.

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December 20, 2011, 07:37:33 AM
 #432

Your "resistance" doesn't seem to be offering much resistance Wink.  But maybe that step at 4.6 is indicative, at least in the short term.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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ineededausername
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December 20, 2011, 02:32:13 PM
 #433

Where we were just a day ago is now 1.7-1.8 on the support scale :O

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December 30, 2011, 05:58:20 PM
 #434

That's a pretty big cliff to climb, but let's do it anyways Grin

By the way, chodpaba, I know your charts don't rely on market depth, but I think they should take it into account. Bitcoin moves in spikes (usually).  If, for example, someone bought 20k BTC right now, it would push the price to 4.6, past your two huge walls. 

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December 30, 2011, 06:43:35 PM
 #435

Also not an indicator of whether we are in a bull or bear market.
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December 30, 2011, 07:49:24 PM
 #436

So, lets see if I'm reading it right.  Assuming we're in a bull market, it would take 4 days of "average volume" rallying to see $6.

Although, I'd say the recent "price moving" rally's have been higher than "average volume".  In other words, we've seen some high volume spikes.
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January 01, 2012, 07:57:39 PM
 #437

Your chart's outdated Wink

ineededausername
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January 01, 2012, 07:58:28 PM
 #438

Your chart's outdated Wink

The walls are all falling down now.  Only a matter of time before $6, $8, $10, $30.

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ineededausername
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January 02, 2012, 02:42:32 PM
 #439

You can see our next stops on that chart... they're the plateaus Cheesy

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ineededausername
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January 02, 2012, 03:34:06 PM
 #440

You can see our next stops on that chart... they're the plateaus Cheesy

That would be price on the right side of those flat spots in the curve. Price has less friction on those 'plateaus'. It doesn't describe how fast price moves through the range, but how much volume it is likely to take. The resistance curve says it should take less volume to move through a price range on the flat spots.

Right, I meant the right side (should've made that clear).

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