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gewure
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November 09, 2011, 04:23:01 PM
 #401

Well there is always bitcoinica  Roll Eyes

I don't have all that much confidence in Gox. Much less something that is leveraged off of them.

There is such a thing as systemic risk. Until the exchanges can demonstrate a grown-up level of stability I won't be willing to risk much.

i don't know in what amounts you guys want to trade - but all the time it sounds to me, as if you need several thousands in volume, hourly.

at the moment i trade with 30 BTC and leverage them on bitcoinica. so the systemic risk is pretty meaningless to me. although if you want to trade with 1000+ BTC then i would probably also be sceptical.

starting small can't be a damage, can it?
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November 09, 2011, 04:30:42 PM
 #402

You don't have to max out your leverage, and imo something between 1.5 and 2.5 compensates for the faster ROI of scalping enough. (Unless you are really really good at it I guess...  Wink )

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November 09, 2011, 04:43:43 PM
 #403

Tradehill and MtGox are not the only exchanges out there.

BTC: 1CDCLDBHbAzHyYUkk1wYHPYmrtDZNhk8zf
LTC: LMS7SqZJnqzxo76iDSEua33WCyYZdjaQoE
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November 13, 2011, 08:53:26 AM
 #404

Ok, to satisfy your curiosity here is the support/resistance chart with price on a log scale.


Would it look less or more distorted if the vertical axis was log too?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

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November 13, 2011, 02:45:34 PM
 #405

Whadayaknow... TH is pulling 20% of Gox volume. If they keep this up I might have to give them another look.

They need to accept Dwolla again. Then I would have no problem using them.

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November 13, 2011, 03:19:42 PM
 #406

Ok, to satisfy your curiosity here is the support/resistance chart with price on a log scale.

*image*
Would it look less or more distorted if the vertical axis was log too?
More distorted because the units are relative S/R. That is to say, the difficulty of change between 10 and 9 is equal to 1 and 0. The graph itself is actually a cumalative display if I'm not mistaken.
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November 13, 2011, 11:32:40 PM
 #407

Nice, oh btw:

Would you be able to make a double logarithmic one? It is difficult to distinguish any differences of say between 2.85 or 3.15 for example Wink

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November 13, 2011, 11:44:25 PM
 #408

Would you be able to make a double logarithmic one? It is difficult to distinguish any differences of say between 2.85 or 3.15 for example Wink
You sure you don't just want one from 2 to 4 or something?

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November 13, 2011, 11:47:02 PM
 #409

Would you be able to make a double logarithmic one? It is difficult to distinguish any differences of say between 2.85 or 3.15 for example Wink
You sure you don't just want one from 2 to 4 or something?
That also Wink

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November 14, 2011, 01:32:22 AM
 #410

How about this?

*image*
Is this after the november 13 instant crash?
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November 14, 2011, 08:45:59 PM
 #411

Update.

*update*
Looks like these charts are changing again. Is today one of the most active days in your record?
StewartJ
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November 14, 2011, 09:50:12 PM
 #412

Update.

*update*
Looks like these charts are changing again. Is today one of the most active days in your record?

It is, and it is behaving just as I would expect for a record volume day.

Where is the support and resistance today?  I see a stair-step drop-down on value on Gox Trading. 

Are we heading for the proverbial $1 btc ?

Thanks for your insights,
SJ
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November 14, 2011, 10:16:08 PM
 #413

Based on the hourly movements today, we should be trading in the $2 range within 2-4 hours.

Perhaps?

SJ
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November 14, 2011, 11:47:41 PM
 #414

Aside from tick spikes, I don't remember TradeHill sustaining higher prices than Mt. Gox.
...

I've seen it happen but it was some time ago IIRC.  And it was not really enough to cover the 1% exchange fees plus whatever fees are associated with transferring a lot of money (if one needed to do that.)  But I think that the best way to arbitrage would probably include some amount of picking off spikes and dips anyway.

...


Just a heads-up/reminder for anyone interested in arbitrage.

Good (and unusual) opportunities to move funds the easy way with Tradehill holding notably above Mt. Gox for reasonable periods of time of late.  Probably only a handful of relatively smaller players could do it though such is the depth at Tradehill.


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November 15, 2011, 02:47:03 AM
 #415

And then a 50k bidwall was placed at 2.30

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November 15, 2011, 02:55:16 AM
 #416

And then a 50k bidwall was placed at 2.30

Bigger'n shit!

Anyone who thinks that the price is going down some more and wants to bail might be advised to hammer on it while it's there.


netrin
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November 19, 2011, 04:56:51 PM
 #417

From what I remember and understood from your explanations, the above chart displays actual traded prices, with diminishing weight based on duration since each particular price was traded. Since bitcoin prices have gone generally down since June, and there have not been any prices below $2 for six months, we would expect to see higher S/R on the chart above $2 than below. I have trouble understanding that $1.9 is equally 'likely' as $2.9.

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BTCurious
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November 19, 2011, 10:45:27 PM
 #418

As far as I understand it:

The prices being below 2 has been a long while ago. That makes the weight of those datapoints very small. But there are no new datapoints in that area yet, so there's nothing with larger weight to average with.

As such, the high resistance stands, but has very low total weight, which means it's rather uncertain. Perhaps it's possible to mark the graphlines in colors to indicate the certainty.

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November 29, 2011, 03:05:42 AM
 #419

An observation evoked an idle musing.
Bitcoin started to be taken seriously at a parity of 1 USD. It then saw an awakening that lead to a peak of 31 USD. It then fell to around 1/10 of that between 1 and 3.1 USD. Speculators love orders of magnitude leveraging at increments of 10x but Bitcoin seems to respond to PI ratios. Let's look for the next bubble to go beyond 10*PI and then another 10*PI or around 9-10K USD. That liquidity should serve the geek market for development of new online apps. The next wave of development into sophisticated everyday useful finacial vehicles should take Bitcoin to another 10*PI or around 300K USD. After that, when fiat currencies are replaced by cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin will be worth the equivalent of another 10*PI or around 10M USD.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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November 29, 2011, 03:26:16 AM
 #420

An observation evoked an idle musing.
Bitcoin started to be taken seriously at a parity of 1 USD. It then saw an awakening that lead to a peak of 31 USD. It then fell to around 1/10 of that between 1 and 3.1 USD. Speculators love orders of magnitude leveraging at increments of 10x but Bitcoin seems to respond to PI ratios. Let's look for the next bubble to go beyond 10*PI and then another 10*PI or around 9-10K USD. That liquidity should serve the geek market for development of new online apps. The next wave of development into sophisticated everyday useful finacial vehicles should take Bitcoin to another 10*PI or around 300K USD. After that, when fiat currencies are replaced by cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin will be worth the equivalent of another 10*PI or around 10M USD.

Sir, you have a sample size of exactly 1 (or 2 depending on how you look at it).  HUGE, eh?
Smiley

edit: I should note that pi is roughly the square root of 10.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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