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netrin
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September 21, 2011, 02:39:38 PM
 #281

-Space orders out through the entire probability range:...
-Weight orders by both the spread, and the probability they will be filled:...
-Place orders far enough apart to be profitable:...

-Use no more than half your reserve for any set of orders:
This helps to ensure you remain liquid. And helps to prevent having to place unprofitable orders in order to rebalance. If you have less tolerance for risk you may want to keep a higher percentage in reserve.

I've thought much about this last point, particularly now after I'd gone 'all in' above $6 and the price action is now bouncing between $5.6 and $6. At the end of any trading day, I understand it's good practice to close all positions and remain in the 'safe' currency. Before June, that currency was BTC. Long afterwards (I'm a slow learner) that safety was USD (and JPY).

Let's assume I've got 90% reserves (not true, but we're also assuming I'm a responsible trader). Of that, if I'm trying to close with 50% USD and 50% BTC, then my bids will not in most cases match my asks, even if perfectly predicted, so it seems that I can't profit off the spreads. This would be fine only if we could erroneously assume the price will just bounce around a fixed midpoint forever. Perhaps one has to project the long term trend and bounce around that. Suppose you have a big order at the 2%, how do you then recover from break outs?

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September 21, 2011, 04:33:52 PM
 #282

Probably explained somewhere in this long thread, but I don't have time to search:  what do the staircases to the left and right mean?
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September 21, 2011, 11:04:09 PM
 #283

So the lower the step the more likely it is the price will reach that value?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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September 21, 2011, 11:47:24 PM
 #284

Yay, pretty low resistance all the way to $6... time for a rebound. Stupid manipulator.

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September 22, 2011, 05:20:50 PM
 #285

So how much will it fall this end of the week?  I'm hoping The Manipulator is nice enough to drop it to $3.

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September 22, 2011, 05:36:06 PM
 #286

So how much will it fall this end of the week?  I'm hoping The Manipulator is nice enough to drop it to $3.

I think that general uncertainty in the markets (as a whole, not just Bitcoin) is keeping volume down. It won't move much unless this changes. Perhaps "The Manipulator" will decide for us. [/snark]

But I think we could test $5.11 again without too much trouble.


Considering, the low end was 5.30 yesterday and 5.10 was the best buy in point yesterday, I'm just pondering if 4.90 would be a good time to buy in point based on the same logic or if it's better to wait to 4.60 for a possible drop on Friday.

Everyone who went all in above $6 two days ago has been dumping their overpriced coins yesterday and today.

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September 22, 2011, 06:44:35 PM
 #287

It is only a good buy in point if it is a good price point for you. That is a very individualized decision based on your market positions and it does not make sense to generalize the market in that way.

To me it's when it drops a lot and finally hits bottom and will go back up.

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September 22, 2011, 08:58:15 PM
 #288

Well it sure as heck bounced off $5.30, the question is if there is enough volume to push (back) through that little bump at $5.60.

I couldn't tell if 5.30 was the bottom or not at the time.  It just sort of stagnated and only went up about 5 cents and the 10 cent was only sporadic stuff hard to get except with a sellwall and one can't make more than a tiny sellwall there or risk pushing it down.  The 5.50 bump is some manipulator and they aren't pushing it higher so far.

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September 22, 2011, 10:35:12 PM
 #289

Fair enough, it bears explaining...
  Thank you.
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September 24, 2011, 06:11:51 AM
 #290

This is one of those "sometimes a day is not a day" - long days.
Friday's box plot remains valid until the price moves eh?
Although the longer the price stays in one place, the more it will gravitate back to that price after a move.  Or the opposite could happen.  The price starts to move, and lots of people jump on board.

Today's activity seems odd to me - with so much volume and so little price movement.  A large trade nested in otherwise low volume.

Ideally we would see more vendors accepting Bitcoin, and the price would respond in small incremental steps as demand increases.  I still doubt Bitcoin will ever appeal to the mainstream.  But even if it gains moderate success as a currency and is used in isolated web communities, or even physical locales around the globe, that could be enough to drive the price up significantly.
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September 24, 2011, 08:02:56 AM
 #291

Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

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September 24, 2011, 01:27:23 PM
 #292

Quote
Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

+1 Agreed, I'm fully expecting this "slow rally" to pick up again Sunday-Monday possibly during Saturday US time as well Grin

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September 24, 2011, 04:21:31 PM
 #293

Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

My hunch is that the next rally phase is going to leave as many bodies in its wake as the decline from the $32 high has - many people who are out BTC and into cash aren't going to be able to jump back on quick enough and will end up taking a big hit to their BTC position.
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September 24, 2011, 04:23:54 PM
 #294

Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

My hunch is that the next rally phase is going to leave as many bodies in its wake as the decline from the $32 high has - many people who are out BTC and into cash aren't going to be able to jump back on quick enough and will end up taking a big hit to their BTC position.

A rally of that power would be enjoyable. The change in the trend and general T.A. makes this a possibility. I hope your hunch becomes reality.
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September 26, 2011, 02:16:32 AM
 #295

Endless stagnation... 5.53 or so seems to be 3rd quartile for rally case!?

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September 28, 2011, 11:29:57 PM
 #296

It keeps looking like it's easier for the price to go up yet the top price on the charts are getting lower; am i interpreting things incorrectly?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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Do you like mmmBananas?!
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September 29, 2011, 04:59:22 AM
 #297

We are quite close to the time when we see whether bitcoin markets will survive.  Many long term and short term trends will meet in the first week of October... I have a feeling that any price movement will be upwards based on these probability charts. We're overdue for a rally!

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September 29, 2011, 06:18:11 AM
 #298

agree with you. we are at key support levels

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netrin
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September 29, 2011, 02:53:11 PM
 #299

Many long term and short term trends will meet in the first week of October... I have a feeling that any price movement will be upwards based on these probability charts.

Do you mind posting your analysis? I had seen that threshold earlier in September and we are just barely following the long term trend line today.

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September 30, 2011, 03:38:28 AM
 #300

I believe it.  Complete flatline today with nothing but bot volume.  The market is prepped for a big "friday effect."  Any leadership, be it bull or bear, is going to get lots of followthrough. 

With deepbit hash rate is the lowest it's been in months I think general sentiment is finally starting to change from "greed" to "fear."  We might finally have the capitulation many of us have been expecting.  But just in case I've staggered sells to $8 in case someone decides to take the market up before crashing it down.

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