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netrin
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September 09, 2011, 01:42:08 AM
 #221

Quote from: Ben Bernanke
-----------------------------------------------------

It is still a work in progress,
I am a long way from running out of tools...

-----------------------------------------------------
Smiley

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September 09, 2011, 01:59:25 AM
 #222

Wanna redo this after what just happened about 45 minutes ago?
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September 09, 2011, 03:10:04 AM
 #223

Ha! You picked up on that...
I'm glad it was intensional. I was worried I might offend. Smiley

Just to get it in my symmetrical skull, is it correct that each box represents the 25%, 50% and 75% 'chance' of each price for the daily low (orange) and high (blue) and the antennae represent not-gonna-happen <1% boundaries? In the above case the 75% low is also the opening price, so it's also 100% impossible for the low to be higher.

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September 09, 2011, 01:49:16 PM
 #224

Apparently the support curve is demanding some respect.

That's a... unique... way of saying that the bottom just dropped out.
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September 09, 2011, 02:54:20 PM
 #225



Accidentally deleted text Huh OOPS -netrin

The point was the first week of August looks uncannily like the first week of September (give or take a day).

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September 09, 2011, 04:00:30 PM
 #226

The left and right antennae of the H-Box plot are the extrema, in this particular case that means the <2% and >98%. The box itself represents the percentile range you describe, as determined by testing.

2% just happened!  Tongue
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September 11, 2011, 09:41:04 AM
 #227

Hi chodpaba,

I like your work, though I don't understand that much about that, yet.
So far I have been looking for the standard price changes (high-low, avg) and the trading volume.

In another post I read a comment of yours like: "can't believe anyone is still using the order book."

Can you loose a few words about that? What exactly are these graphics based on? Any literature, wiki-pages or so:)Huh

Cheers,
Harm
netrin
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September 11, 2011, 10:56:30 PM
 #228



I posted this earlier, (and just accidentally deleted the text rather than quoting) because I thought it was relevant to the time series theme. Wouldn't you agree this looks disturbingly familiar?



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September 12, 2011, 03:55:33 AM
 #229



I have learned that eye is quite treacherous when it comes to actually quantifying things like trend probabilities and buy/sell signals from charts.

I don't deny it. And even when things go exactly as planned, the mind changes strategies in fear or irrational exuberance. It's good to have cold calculus and perhaps an automated trade strategy, or so I imagine. Smiley

I feel the eye and mind are better at seeing patterns out of the box. Sure you can develop more sophisticated software at an enormous expense, but our inherent pattern recognition is quite fast, cheap, and programmable, if not reliable. The human can simultaneously see numerous timescales and visualize a future. On the other hand, he is forgetful, undisciplined, and has a wonderful imagination for better and worse.

In this particular case, I perfectly predicted the bounce point above $6 on the 7th, the rise above $7, and the fall to $4.5. Somehow I failed to make the expected killing, but that's a different issue I am working on. The rise back up is following a similar pattern, but gets trapped under exactly one of each of the previous half dozen support lines from August (and Mt. Gox is reporting dubious events that may or may not be happening).

Let us assume that those chart snippits are actually telling the same story, how do you turn that into an actionable trade? By deriving price targets?

Well, there's the rub. I set orders that either don't get filled or were too conservative and I lose terribly chasing the price. But how do you manage that with your probabilities? Set 5% of your wealth where there is 50% probability?

I believe the greatest value of analysis (such as your own, thank you) is in establishing calm confidence. Thanks for the June 13 tip. I've been looking at a few, but I'll give it special note. Cheers!

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September 12, 2011, 11:34:23 AM
 #230

interesting point: exponential average 50 crossed simple average 200 with 30 min bars:


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September 12, 2011, 09:19:55 PM
 #231





The $9 resistance on 8 August became the support on 12th (falling diagonal) similar to the $5.3 line on 10 September and I hope today.

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September 13, 2011, 03:15:08 AM
 #232




I like the new chart format.  Easy to see the important stuff.  THANKS!

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September 13, 2011, 03:23:29 PM
 #233

Compared to the pattern in early August (and June), there have been disappointing rallies to the (red) resistance lines according to my eyeballs (click to expand), though it looks like we're in the fourth Elliott wave of this week's rally.




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September 13, 2011, 04:35:18 PM
 #234

Volatility is so great that trends are essentially meaningless, I don't think that they can be considered predictive...The only conclusion I can come to is that at this time $/BTC is essentially trendless.

What about on monthly scales?

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September 13, 2011, 04:53:10 PM
 #235

I have tested trends ad nauseam for this market and have so far failed to find a way to make them useful on a day-to-day basis because the significance of daily moves is generally enough to swamp out the significance of any imposed trend. The only conclusion I can come to is that at this time $/BTC is essentially trendless.

Its the power of the Bitcoin drama show. You never know what the next news will be.
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September 13, 2011, 05:30:31 PM
 #236


Show me a way to turn that into actionable trades, unless that can be done it does not have any actual relevance to the 'market'.

It gives me confidence that we won't cross that one year support line, that we've reached the bottom from which I expect a doubling in short time. And if we do cross below, I'll have sufficient justification for panic. Smiley

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September 13, 2011, 09:45:17 PM
 #237

I don't really believe in a bottom at this point, yet that gives me no reason to panic regardless of how low price goes. I say that because there is a natural feedback loop in play which encourages trading as the price becomes more volatile, and price becomes more volatile the lower it goes.
This is an excellent point. I don't believe in an exact low either, not anymore. Finding it completely useless to even speculate on that number. What I've seen though is that once the price hits $4.xx the volumes and instability go through the roof and this behaviour begins at early $5. On the other side what we have now is a drastic slow down of action at around $6.

What this looks like to me is that right now the market has a very clear consensus of what is a "low price" and what is a "high price". I don't see a trend either, there is none at the moment.

I find it possible that we might be staying at this range, $4.xx - $6.xx, for a while now. When the breakout happens is unknown, but to me it's much more likely to be up from here than down. This will obviously depend on what kind of interest Bitcoin draws in the near future, but if nothing especially bad happens there's pressure for an uptrend of some sort.

The basis of this is that we have already seen google trends stabilize from the drop and the drop in the transaction count of the network is stabilizing slowly but surely as well. It's of course possible that we will see a drop-stabilize-drop behaviour for these indicators which to me will surely mean that a price range lower than the current one is entirely possible, even probable. But if the behaviour is the same as it has been in the past, a drop-stabilize-rise, then the price will rise as well.

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September 13, 2011, 09:55:38 PM
 #238

There is a third possibility as well which I think almost no one has proposed here. That is a drop-stabilize-stable scenario. I find this more likely than the drop-stabilize-drop scenario the doomsday-bears propose. This scenario is possible if there is neither a drop nor a rise in the size of the economy and assuming that around $5 is the price the current economy can fundamentally sustain.

This would mean a longer period than usual of trading within a certain, relatively tight range. Eventually the stable scenario would end with either a stagnation or a growth period following. But a relatively long stable period could be what we're looking at next. But considering this scenario I still find the drop-stabilize-rise scenario most likely. There's simply too much going on in the Bitcoin world and the potential is incredible. I still feel the whole thing is just starting.

I recently heard that a pirate World of Warcraft network uses Bitcoins, only Bitcoins, for virtual item trade etc. Soon we might see the whole wow-gold market change to Bitcoin because the benefits are so big. Blizzard will have a hard time doing anything to stop it after that. We have just scratched the potential of the anonymity function and on top of that there are so many other good properties in Bitcoin which make the potential enormous.

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September 13, 2011, 10:51:01 PM
 #239

I think games will provide a stabilizing effect. I don't play in virtual worlds, but I would imagine Sir Lancelot doesn't care too much if Thor's Hammer of Lightning is fluctuating against the price of real world eggs, as long as it is stable against the price of a flock of Unicorns. Similarly for poker, I would think, a player only needs enough stability that a win is a win at the end of the day, and besides, a gambler might also appreciate the volatility; A big blind is twice a little blind irrespective of the price of eggs.

The rising year support touching Oct, Dec-Jan, April, and September converges at $4 with the falling three month support June, Aug, September. At $4, I think the market is asking whether $32 was a short bubble or whether the whole bitcoin adventure is a failure. Let the fight begin, today 11 August I mean 13 September!

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September 14, 2011, 02:50:44 AM
 #240

Quote
http://I think you have something there, the potential for Bitcoin in gaming is huge. Particularly, where it comes to delivering payouts to players where such things are not permitted and regular banking channels are closed.

+1 Spot on

However, this pales compared with the possibilities of becoming a "currency overlay". Should that happen I can easily see small banks that are getting shafted by SWIFT buying BTC to move cash around the world  Grin

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