ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Lloydie]

or insider information trading 

Very consistent, looks like insider.

[dnaleor]

or insider information trading 

Very consistent, looks like insider.

beginning to doubt... The Am100 is still sold at 0.00569

[Zubilica]

We will see 1BTC/share until 17 Ian

#speculation

[empoweoqwj]

We will see 1BTC/share until 17 Ian

#speculation

You might want to edit that for clarity. I was thinking Ian could be the inside trader

[dmcdad]

Certain AM shareholders have been telling people that gen 3 chips will be out this month. There's going to be a lot of disappointed come Feb.

Seriously doubtful on that one.

Are you just referring to the November quote from SmiGuel you dug up? I pretty confident everyone knows that January is just tapeout and hardware is still months away.

If anyone on here is expecting hardware in a few weeks please speak up so we can get a count for maths.

[minerpumpkin]

Certain AM shareholders have been telling people that gen 3 chips will be out this month. There's going to be a lot of disappointed come Feb.

Seriously doubtful on that one.

Are you just referring to the November quote from SmiGuel you dug up? I pretty confident everyone knows that January is just tapeout and hardware is still months away.

If anyone on here is expecting hardware in a few weeks please speak up so we can get a count for maths.

People also have to remember that tapeout means the (potential) start of the actual chip production, which takes another 45 days. And it still may go wrong and AM's design may prove to be faulty. Remain confident, though, they've spent the last 2 months testing and optimizing their design and are well aware of the risks of a faulty design.

[hdbuck]

or insider information trading 

Very consistent, looks like insider.

could it be that 'they' (AM) are pumping their own shares because they did not want to witness a tremendous drop below 0,1 as nothing really important is likely to happen in january and as investors tend to be even more worried and impatient?!

[minerpumpkin]

or insider information trading 

Very consistent, looks like insider.

could it be that 'they' (AM) are pumping their own shares because they did not want to witness a tremendous drop below 0,1 as nothing really important is likely to happen in january and as investors tend to be even more worried and impatient?!

I think they just don't care about that. If they wanted to, they could've easily released some positive news.

[hdbuck]

or insider information trading  

Very consistent, looks like insider.

could it be that 'they' (AM) are pumping their own shares because they did not want to witness a tremendous drop below 0,1 as nothing really important is likely to happen in january and as investors tend to be even more worried and impatient?!

I think they just don't care about that. If they wanted to, they could've easily released some positive news.

Well then it can be someone who has a strong position in AM (and even some acquaintance with AM people) and did not want to see such scenario happening because of his previous investment?

[troner]

If some entity is going to make a huge order of mining and/or immersion cooling equipment, would it make sense for such an entity to buy AM shares and get some of the invested funds back via dividends?

[Zubilica]

If FC will say just "Hello" here,  price will go up . Upward movement seems persistent i do not believe there is a single person behind this. Inside trading is the most plausible explanation.

[freedomno1]

If FC will say just "Hello" here,  price will go up . Upward movement seems persistent i do not believe there is a single person behind this. Inside trading is the most plausible explanation.

These buys started before the "bottom". as many as 250 shares at a time. Looks like 1000 or so have been removed from HL recently, after slowly climbing for a  week or two before that. That is interesting, as to me that indicates longer term investment, rather than pump and dump. The price movements seem to follow my expectations, its just that their schedule is a few weeks ahead of me    The only thing I see wrong here is that I bought some at the bottom. That just doesn't happen.

It could be the bottom speculation and all we need to wait on the official news to come in and what the market did in anticipation we can see clearly is buy in advance of that news, on arrival of that news we could see the old adage
Buy on the Rumor Sell on the News
Or a nice rally up because it was above expectations
Or as expected more less so no real change to the price
Either way it is possible you got the bottom or perhaps just the low for now.
So possibly congrats explorer ha-ha my speculation is on the Bitcoin Price nearing 1K again and how the shares hold up to fiat increases vs perceived hash to back up the price.

[dhenson]

If you were a longtime holder of thousands of shares and you wanted to sell, what would you do?

A) Sell at current market price.
B) Spend a pittance (200-300 btc) to double the value of AM1 on a thinly traded market and create an auction for your direct shares at the newly inflated price.  If you get lucky, others will catch the fever and start buying, running the price up even further.

If a large holder initiates an auction at these new prices then you will have your answer.

The AM run-up from 1 - 2.5 btc was the same tactic.  It was just more wildly successful than originally planned.

If you think holders like Jutarul or Rival aren't smart enough to pull this off, then you haven't been paying attention.

Side note.. I'm sure to get beaten up over this post... I really need to stop posting on this thread.

[rudrigorc2]

If you were a longtime holder of thousands of shares and you wanted to sell, what would you do?

A) Sell at current market price.
B) Spend a pittance (200-300 btc) to double the value of AM1 on a thinly traded market and create an auction for your direct shares at the newly inflated price.  If you get lucky, others will catch the fever and start buying, running the price up even further.

If a large holder initiates an auction at these new prices then you will have your answer.

The AM run-up from 1 - 2.5 btc was the same tactic.  It was just more wildly successful than originally planned.

If you think holders like Jutarul or Rival aren't smart enough to pull this off, then you haven't been paying attention.

Side note.. I'm sure to get beaten up over this post... I really need to stop posting on this thread.

why would they risk any money on this?

buying at IPO they made millions already with dividends and dumping some at > 4+
asicminer will survive and the steady weekly revenue is still very good if you have tons of shares.
given the conditions I think smart people got better things to do with their money than trying to pull this off

[Jutarul]

If you were a longtime holder of thousands of shares and you wanted to sell, what would you do?

A) Sell at current market price.
B) Spend a pittance (200-300 btc) to double the value of AM1 ...
The AM run-up from 1 - 2.5 btc was the same tactic.  It was just more wildly successful than originally planned.

If you think holders like Jutarul or Rival aren't smart enough to pull this off, then you haven't been paying attention.

That narrative doesn't hold. At the time of >2 BTC/share a high valuation was warranted and as an early investor that was the time to unload equity to allow other types of investors to get into the equity. The temporary loss of leadership was an assumed risk for new investors, albeit I think the correction was sharper than warranted. The hindsight analysis suggests that the individual business cycle for ASIC companies, especially in the early stage, will likely be a zig-zag motion, as the cycle goes from R&D to volume production to new r&D and new volume production, each time coming out with a more competitive product. An average of 10% market share only requires to have 30% share 1/3 of the year... As such AM is right on schedule. Knowing this may help you in your speculative decisions.

[dhenson]

If you were a longtime holder of thousands of shares and you wanted to sell, what would you do?

A) Sell at current market price.
B) Spend a pittance (200-300 btc) to double the value of AM1 ...
The AM run-up from 1 - 2.5 btc was the same tactic.  It was just more wildly successful than originally planned.

If you think holders like Jutarul or Rival aren't smart enough to pull this off, then you haven't been paying attention.

That narrative doesn't hold. At the time of >2 BTC/share a high valuation was warranted and as an early investor that was the time to unload equity to allow other types of investors to get into the equity. The temporary loss of leadership was an assumed risk for new investors, albeit I think the correction was sharper than warranted. The hindsight analysis suggests that the individual business cycle for ASIC companies, especially in the early stage, will likely be a zig-zag motion, as the cycle goes from R&D to volume production to new r&D and new volume production, each time coming out with a more competitive product. An average of 10% market share only requires to have 30% share 1/3 of the year... As such AM is right on schedule. Knowing this may help you in your speculative decisions.

edit... I just realized what you are saying and have decided to shut up. (after deleting my reply)

[VeeMiner]

I wonder why is everyone so hyped about a slight change in price of shares on Havelock. the volume is so low and orderbook is so empty it doesn't seem like a significant show of value of AM shares. (it's true however that there is not really anywhere else to see the fair valuation of shares...)

[freedomno1]

Well it is volatile guess its coming back down again probably staying a bit higher than it started at till tapeout though.

[izaa12]

i gave asicminer nearly 3 months since i started losing faith (and btc) to regain some of its form and own up to promises... with nothing.
thanks for the ride friedcat, as of today, i am 100% out!

[empoweoqwj]

i gave asicminer nearly 3 months since i started losing faith (and btc) to regain some of its form and own up to promises... with nothing.
thanks for the ride friedcat, as of today, i am 100% out!

You joined at wrong time, didn't read the news, I'm happy you are out!