Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[mechs]

Man, I am in a deep hole now as an investor - 20% of my initial investment already gone in a week.  We are definitely doing something wrong with J-D.

[01BTC10]

Lots of peoples seem to underestimate variance especially with low volume big bets.  

If the house edge is really 1% then the only thing to worry about is losing patience. Divesting just before a whale potential winning session will cost you money on the long term.

[shawshankinmate37927]

Man, I am in a deep hole now as an investor - 20% of my initial investment already gone in a week.  We are definitely doing something wrong with J-D.

Double your investment now and you'll only be down 10%.

[stripykitteh]

Lots of peoples seem to underestimate variance especially with low volume big bets.  

If the house edge is really 1% then the only thing to worry about is losing patience.

Yes, those that dislike variance or don't understand it or are investing with money they can't afford to lose shouldn't be in J-D.

[RationalSpeculator]

Dooglus, I'm curious how much is being bet on a daily basis since inception. You published it here once for a few days showing an average of 2.5k btc bet per day. I'm curious how that has evolved over time until today.

[juhakall]

Dooglus, I'm curious how much is being bet on a daily basis since inception. You published it here once for a few days showing an average of 2.5k btc bet per day. I'm curious how that has evolved over time until today.

I would like to see these stats excluding the bets of cici/nakowa/celeste.

[RationalSpeculator]

Man, I am in a deep hole now as an investor - 20% of my initial investment already gone in a week.  We are definitely doing something wrong with J-D.

Double your investment now and you'll only be down 10%.

That would be poor bookkeeping

Profit needs to be calculated over the capital invested.

By doubling the capital invested today, the loss still remains x amount of coins. Return calculation is x amount of coins lost / average capital invested.

[romerun]

what if my invest goes down to 0, will it go up after the site makes it back ?

[mechs]

what if my invest goes down to 0, will it go up after the site makes it back ?

Not realistic to go to zero, but very realistic other investors will come in and dilute your stake to near zero.  Your share of returns is your percentage of the current bankroll, not how much has been invested overall in the site.  That helps you with the commission, but I do not see commission in the near or even far future at this point.

[shawshankinmate37927]

Man, I am in a deep hole now as an investor - 20% of my initial investment already gone in a week.  We are definitely doing something wrong with J-D.

Double your investment now and you'll only be down 10%.

That would be poor bookkeeping

Profit needs to be calculated over the capital invested.

By doubling the capital invested today, the loss still remains x amount of coins. Return calculation is x amount of coins lost / average capital invested.

By no means am I an accountant.  But, if I initially invested 10 BTC and was now down 2 BTC (20%) and added another 10 BTC to my investment, I'm now only down 2 BTC out of 20 BTC (10%).  Sure, the number of coins lost remains the same, but as a percentage of the total invested, my loss is cut in half.

[trout]

dooglus, just one request: keep cool.
don't budge

[mechs]

I think Dooglus actually was one of the people who divested (someone in chat said so).  I'll admit, as an investor, that does not fill me with confidence.

[shawshankinmate37927]

I think Dooglus actually was one of the people who divested (someone in chat said so).

In that case, it must be true.

[stripykitteh]

I think Dooglus actually was one of the people who divested (someone in chat said so).  I'll admit, as an investor, that does not fill me with confidence.

I think you should get out with what you've got while you can.

[dooglus]

Dooglus, I'm curious how much is being bet on a daily basis since inception. You published it here once for a few days showing an average of 2.5k btc bet per day. I'm curious how that has evolved over time until today.

I would like to see these stats excluding the bets of cici/nakowa/celeste.

https://just-dice.com/wagered.txt

I update it manually, and did so a few minutes ago.

[dooglus]

I think Dooglus actually was one of the people who divested (someone in chat said so).

In that case, it must be true.

It is true.  Last night as I was trying to sleep the whale came back and was making large bets again.  I divested in order to try to get a little sleep.  Celeste's play is crazy.  Winning over 2k BTC in less than a minute by winning the max bet 9 times in a row?  I don't want to be on that ride.

Look at the shape of the profit/loss chart here: http://chromaticcreative.net/bitcoin/pcalc/jd.php  Simply crazy.

So in summary: there's a whale.  He seems to be very lucky.  The house edge doesn't seem to be big enough to beat him.  And he bets massive amounts.  Even the creator of the site isn't invested in it any more.

[mechs]

I think Dooglus actually was one of the people who divested (someone in chat said so).

In that case, it must be true.

It is true.  Last night as I was trying to sleep the whale came back and was making large bets again.  I divested in order to try to get a little sleep.  Celeste's play is crazy.  Winning over 2k BTC in less than a minute by winning the max bet 9 times in a row?  I don't want to be on that ride.

Look at the shape of the profit/loss chart here: http://chromaticcreative.net/bitcoin/pcalc/jd.php  Simply crazy.

So in summary: there's a whale.  He seems to be very lucky.  The house edge doesn't seem to be big enough to beat him.  And he bets massive amounts.  Even the creator of the site isn't invested in it any more.

So maybe you can admit that the parameters need to be changed if you no longer even invested in your own site and those who have stayed invested are down 20%? I honestly think you should both tweak the edge up and max profit down (or atleast just the max profit down) and limit new investors so us sitting on huge loses do not get diluted so badly we can never re-coup.

[HurtK]

wow thats pretty sick, looking at the numbers from the last 5 days the site should be up about 2500 BTC just from the whale alone. but if he keeps up playing this kind of volume as he played last 5 days i have no doubt we will get to the black numbers very soon.

[dooglus]

So maybe you can admit that the parameters need to be changed if you no longer even invested in your own site and those who have stayed invested are down 20%? I honestly think you should both tweak the edge up and max profit down (or atleast just the max profit down) and limit new investors so us sitting on huge loses do not get diluted so badly we can never re-coup.

I can tweak both the house edge and the max profit.  Lots of people will complain that we'll lose players and whales that way.  Investors signed up for the 1%/1% deal, and that's what the deal still is.  I don't think it would be right to change it now without consulting the investors.  And I have no way of contacting the investors.  I don't even know the identity of the biggest investor - I've had literally no contact from them.

There are clearly people both for and against making any changes, so I think it's best to leave the parameters as they are all let the investors decide whether they want to continue to be invested.  I don't see what else I can do, really.

[mechs]

wow thats pretty sick, looking at the numbers from the last 5 days the site should be up about 2500 BTC just from the whale alone. but if he keeps up playing this kind of volume as he played last 5 days i have no doubt we will get to the black numbers very soon.

He actually just cashed out, supposively for good.  he is up 5000+ BTC and he walking away.  Worst thing in the world, a big winning gambler with self-control.