Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[8fold]

Hey doog, account 2700 here, made a test deposit to http://blockexplorer.com/address/19PtzNkxhjjwsr22MtUFRtALPdMfACYfhi and is not showing in the account. Or blockchain: https://blockchain.info/address/19PtzNkxhjjwsr22MtUFRtALPdMfACYfhi

[1714951859]

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[1714951859]

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[1714951859]

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[1714951859]

1714951859

[dooglus]

Hey doog, account 2700 here, made a test deposit to http://blockexplorer.com/address/19PtzNkxhjjwsr22MtUFRtALPdMfACYfhi and is not showing in the account. Or blockchain: https://blockchain.info/address/19PtzNkxhjjwsr22MtUFRtALPdMfACYfhi

That address is a deposit address for account 105793.

You weren't logged in as 2700 when you requested a deposit address, so the site made you a new account.  Your deposit is waiting for you in that account.

If you can't access it, email the address at the end of the FAQ tab and I'll have you sign a message with the address you deposited from and then transfer the coins to your real account.

[8fold]

Hey doog, account 2700 here, made a test deposit to http://blockexplorer.com/address/19PtzNkxhjjwsr22MtUFRtALPdMfACYfhi and is not showing in the account. Or blockchain: https://blockchain.info/address/19PtzNkxhjjwsr22MtUFRtALPdMfACYfhi

That address is a deposit address for account 105793.

You weren't logged in as 2700 when you requested a deposit address, so the site made you a new account.  Your deposit is waiting for you in that account.

If you can't access it, email the address at the end of the FAQ tab and I'll have you sign a message with the address you deposited from and then transfer the coins to your real account.

Forget about it then. I deposited directly from Bitstamp, via their API, as I was checking/testing their API, that's why It was such a small amount.

Stamp History screenshot: http://quick-markup.com/p/5222df9854479
Second screenshot: http://quick-markup.com/p/5222e04c071a8

Keep it or give it to someone, or send it to 2700. I don't know how to access 105793, as I thought I was logged in to 2700, so it's too much trouble. Thanks for your time to reply anyway.

[MRKLYE]

Congrats on 100,000,000 rolls Doog!

[dooglus]

Congrats on 100,000,000 rolls Doog!

Thank you

Does that make Just-Dice "the most popular Bitcoin betting game in the universe"?

The previous "most popular Bitcoin betting game in the universe" has less than 6 million bets after more than a year of operation... 

[mechs]

Congrats on 100,000,000 rolls Doog!

Thank you

Does that make Just-Dice "the most popular Bitcoin betting game in the universe"?

The previous "most popular Bitcoin betting game in the universe" has less than 6 million bets after more than a year of operation... 

Let's hope Just-Dice still around for it's 1 Billionth Roll:)

[001sonkit]

I guess you really need some event to boost the "sales" of the site when it hits the first million Bitcoin Wagered

And by the time it hits 21 million (hope so). You can create some more crazy eye catching ads

[HowGudAmI]

Forgive me if this is a really dumb oversight on my part, but I am confused about one thing,

If the house edge is 1%, then in the long run that is the "profit" that should be produced.
JD has had almost 1 million BTC wagered currently (through over 100 million bets), enough in my opinion to smooth out and lucky/unlucky streaks that may have occurred.

Based on this, why is the site profit about 0.6%, a large variance from the 1% I would expect.

I know I have missed something, so who can enlighten me?

[Deprived]

Forgive me if this is a really dumb oversight on my part, but I am confused about one thing,

If the house edge is 1%, then in the long run that is the "profit" that should be produced.
JD has had almost 1 million BTC wagered currently (through over 100 million bets), enough in my opinion to smooth out and lucky/unlucky streaks that may have occurred.

Based on this, why is the site profit about 0.6%, a large variance from the 1% I would expect.

I know I have missed something, so who can enlighten me?

If you looked at the 99.9 million small bets I've no doubt the profit would be near 1%.  It's the tiny proportion of big bets that cause the difference - which there haven't been enough of to have any expectation of profit being near the theoretical edge.

Here's how it happens - consider the following scenario

100 million bets of .00001 at 50/50 only amounts to 1k BTC bet - with an expected house profit of 10 BTC.  Actual edge would be very near expectation for sure.
A single 10 BTC bet at 50/50 on top of those would mean the house would either be at double expected edge or no profit at all - despite there being 100 million and one bets.

That's basically what's happened - with the actual returns being dominated by a relatively small number of large (100 BTC+) bets drowning out the performance of all the much smaller bets.

[mechs]

Forgive me if this is a really dumb oversight on my part, but I am confused about one thing,

If the house edge is 1%, then in the long run that is the "profit" that should be produced.
JD has had almost 1 million BTC wagered currently (through over 100 million bets), enough in my opinion to smooth out and lucky/unlucky streaks that may have occurred.

Based on this, why is the site profit about 0.6%, a large variance from the 1% I would expect.

I know I have missed something, so who can enlighten me?

If you looked at the 99.9 million small bets I've no doubt the profit would be near 1%.  It's the tiny proportion of big bets that cause the difference - which there haven't been enough of to have any expectation of profit being near the theoretical edge.

Here's how it happens - consider the following scenario

100 million bets of .00001 at 50/50 only amounts to 1k BTC bet - with an expected house profit of 10 BTC.  Actual edge would be very near expectation for sure.
A single 10 BTC bet at 50/50 on top of those would mean the house would either be at double expected edge or no profit at all - despite there being 100 million and one bets.

That's basically what's happened - with the actual returns being dominated by a relatively small number of large (100 BTC+) bets drowning out the performance of all the much smaller bets.

Explained perfectly - in this case a lucky streak by the whale nakowa/cici/celeste - where he hit the max bet at the time 9 times in a row in under a minute.  If anything, it a positibe for prospective gamblers since the house edge appears as being effectively 0.6% based on historical performance.  Not quite as good a salespitch for investors though!

[HowGudAmI]

Forgive me if this is a really dumb oversight on my part, but I am confused about one thing,

If the house edge is 1%, then in the long run that is the "profit" that should be produced.
JD has had almost 1 million BTC wagered currently (through over 100 million bets), enough in my opinion to smooth out and lucky/unlucky streaks that may have occurred.

Based on this, why is the site profit about 0.6%, a large variance from the 1% I would expect.

I know I have missed something, so who can enlighten me?

If you looked at the 99.9 million small bets I've no doubt the profit would be near 1%.  It's the tiny proportion of big bets that cause the difference - which there haven't been enough of to have any expectation of profit being near the theoretical edge.

Here's how it happens - consider the following scenario

100 million bets of .00001 at 50/50 only amounts to 1k BTC bet - with an expected house profit of 10 BTC.  Actual edge would be very near expectation for sure.
A single 10 BTC bet at 50/50 on top of those would mean the house would either be at double expected edge or no profit at all - despite there being 100 million and one bets.

That's basically what's happened - with the actual returns being dominated by a relatively small number of large (100 BTC+) bets drowning out the performance of all the much smaller bets.

Explained perfectly - in this case a lucky streak by the whale nakowa/cici/celeste - where he hit the max bet at the time 9 times in a row in under a minute.  If anything, it a positibe for prospective gamblers since the house edge appears as being effectively 0.6% based on historical performance.  Not quite as good a salespitch for investors though!

Thanks guys. I would invest more heavily in JD (Well, relative to what I have) but I have too much tied up in LTC and I do not consider it a good time to move into BTC. Someone should make JD-LTC.

Anyway, I put 0.2BTC in on 18/08/13 (or 08/18/13 for 'murica) and now that has grown by just over 1% (currently 0.20215833). Is that normal for 2 weeks?

[mechs]

Forgive me if this is a really dumb oversight on my part, but I am confused about one thing,

If the house edge is 1%, then in the long run that is the "profit" that should be produced.
JD has had almost 1 million BTC wagered currently (through over 100 million bets), enough in my opinion to smooth out and lucky/unlucky streaks that may have occurred.

Based on this, why is the site profit about 0.6%, a large variance from the 1% I would expect.

I know I have missed something, so who can enlighten me?

If you looked at the 99.9 million small bets I've no doubt the profit would be near 1%.  It's the tiny proportion of big bets that cause the difference - which there haven't been enough of to have any expectation of profit being near the theoretical edge.

Here's how it happens - consider the following scenario

100 million bets of .00001 at 50/50 only amounts to 1k BTC bet - with an expected house profit of 10 BTC.  Actual edge would be very near expectation for sure.
A single 10 BTC bet at 50/50 on top of those would mean the house would either be at double expected edge or no profit at all - despite there being 100 million and one bets.

That's basically what's happened - with the actual returns being dominated by a relatively small number of large (100 BTC+) bets drowning out the performance of all the much smaller bets.

Explained perfectly - in this case a lucky streak by the whale nakowa/cici/celeste - where he hit the max bet at the time 9 times in a row in under a minute.  If anything, it a positibe for prospective gamblers since the house edge appears as being effectively 0.6% based on historical performance.  Not quite as good a salespitch for investors though!

Thanks guys. I would invest more heavily in JD (Well, relative to what I have) but I have too much tied up in LTC and I do not consider it a good time to move into BTC. Someone should make JD-LTC.

Anyway, I put 0.2BTC in on 18/08/13 (or 08/18/13 for 'murica) and now that has grown by just over 1% (currently 0.20215833). Is that normal for 2 weeks?

That'll never happen - Dooglus is a hard-core old-school bitcoiner.

[dooglus]

Anyway, I put 0.2BTC in on 18/08/13 (or 08/18/13 for 'murica) and now that has grown by just over 1% (currently 0.20215833). Is that normal for 2 weeks?

It's hard to define "normal" when looking at what is effectively a random walk, but it's close to expectation.

If we have about 5k BTC wagered each day, and about 50k BTC total in the bankroll, we expect to keep 1% of the 5k ie. 50 BTC per day, which is 0.1% of the total bankroll.

So you can expect to make about 0.1% per day, and in 2 weeks you can expect to make about 1.4%.

All of this is subject to changes is:

 * daily wagered amount
 * total investment size
 * lucky

but it gives a very rough idea of what to currently expect.

If things continue like this, that's a 36.5% expected return per year.  But they won't, of course.  Things are always changing.

As for the previous post about why profits are 0.6% when they should be 1%, Deprived nailed it.  The relatively few very large bets are responsible.  You'll see in the profit chart below that after the crazy period in the middle of July we've very closely followed the green line of current expectation (our expectation is to run parallel to the red line forever.  We expect to stay ~4k below the red line, but even so, profit is still expected to rise and approach 1%):

[dooglus]

mechs: your signature doesn't fit on my screen properly.  I don't know if you changed the bbcode slightly, or why it happened.  Here's how it looks to me:



Maybe it's a result of the theme I'm using, and it looks fine to everyone else, I don't know.  But I've seen other people who have copied the signature code I made and their signatures look just like mine.

[001sonkit]

http://gyazo.com/5d4140039bd6a4e90bdfd9d12aa4f053
http://gyazo.com/de057aed55544c66d7f5d52e09525400

[HowGudAmI]

mechs: your signature doesn't fit on my screen properly.  I don't know if you changed the bbcode slightly, or why it happened.  Here's how it looks to me:

img

Maybe it's a result of the theme I'm using, and it looks fine to everyone else, I don't know.  But I've seen other people who have copied the signature code I made and their signatures look just like mine.

It also doesn't fit for me on the standard theme.

[mechs]

mechs: your signature doesn't fit on my screen properly.  I don't know if you changed the bbcode slightly, or why it happened.  Here's how it looks to me:

img

Maybe it's a result of the theme I'm using, and it looks fine to everyone else, I don't know.  But I've seen other people who have copied the signature code I made and their signatures look just like mine.

It also doesn't fit for me on the standard theme.

Odd, it shows up fine on my screen - I will make some changes

[marcovaldo]

Almost 50k invested.
100 million bets.
And soon 1 million btc wagered


Really nice after such a small time.

[nimda]

mechs: your signature doesn't fit on my screen properly.  I don't know if you changed the bbcode slightly, or why it happened.  Here's how it looks to me:

img

Maybe it's a result of the theme I'm using, and it looks fine to everyone else, I don't know.  But I've seen other people who have copied the signature code I made and their signatures look just like mine.

It also doesn't fit for me on the standard theme.

Odd, it shows up fine on my screen - I will make some changes

What is your horizontal screen resolution?

[mechs]

mechs: your signature doesn't fit on my screen properly.  I don't know if you changed the bbcode slightly, or why it happened.  Here's how it looks to me:

img

Maybe it's a result of the theme I'm using, and it looks fine to everyone else, I don't know.  But I've seen other people who have copied the signature code I made and their signatures look just like mine.

It also doesn't fit for me on the standard theme.

Odd, it shows up fine on my screen - I will make some changes

What is your horizontal screen resolution?

Does it still not show up well?