I just don't see the evidence for a scam.
And I do not see any real evidence that they are not.
See it works both ways.
It doesn't work both ways. The fact that you think it does is a good indication that investing in this kind of thing isn't for you.
It does work both ways - the problem is you guys are thinking in black and white here. Either true or false. In order to figure out what the best course of action is, you need to
quantify what you think the various
probabilities are.
Let's do another example. Say in one scenario, call it
A you think they'll have
5% of the network, and be priced like AM, and in another case,
B, you think Labcoin will be a total failure, no chips, possibly due to being a scam.
So if a 5% network means a 0.084 share price at ASICMiner valuations (2.5x annual dividends, or 40% 'dividend yield')
Now, let's suppose you think there is a
90% chance they are a total scam. , and thus their share price will be 0.
On the other hand you think there is a
10% chance they will get 1% of the network, and their share price will be 0.084
That means to figure out their current share price based on those assumptions, you'd do 0*0.9 + 0.0168*0.1 = 0.0084.
So with a 90% chance of scam and 10% chance of 5% of the network, their shares would be undervalued by 2.625.
On the other hand, if you think there is a 99% chance they are a scam, and only a 1% chance they'll succeed, then the 'correct' price (in your view) would be only 0.00
084, and that their current share price is 3.8x too high.
And again, that's a simplified examples. I am not saying that is what the share price should be In particular the big question in my mind is what share of the network they'll get. It could be 1% or 10% Or 0.5%. There's also the question of whether or not they'll be able to
keep up with network growth. So the price now maybe low because people think they won't be able to get a big chunk of the network, not that they will be total failures.
But the main point I'm trying to make is that these share prices are going to be extremely sensitive to
new evidence that changes the
probability distribution.
You see what I'm saying? If the estimated probability of non-failure in the above example were to go from, say
99% to
90% the price would go up
10x. On the other hand if the probability of success were
95% it would have to jump to
50% to see a
10x price increase.
However, at this point I would say both Labcoin
and ActiveMining are undervalued over the long term. And traders are switching back and forth trying to guess which one is going to see more information come in. I think Labcoin is likely to have good information come in much sooner then ActM, so their price will go up sooner.
But, there is no way to predict what's going to happen. I think both stocks are undervalued mainly because there just isn't enough BTC in the system to support a 'proper' valuation, and anyone can make money on both of these stocks, for the moment.
