Analysis

[ragnar0k]

lol... roger ver has insider trading, we have ML! He predicted this correction...
I just hope we wont go to 10k like he says, though I am not panicing as he expects 100k next XD

[1714981070]

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[1714981070]

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[1714981070]

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[gentlemand]

lol... roger ver has insider trading, we have ML! He predicted this correction...
I just hope we wont go to 10k like he says, though I am not panicing as he expects 100k next XD

I think ten grand is in the bag pretty much. It's not looking too enthusiastic at present and it's not that much further to fall really. Sad for peak buyers but if it continues to play out as predicted then they won't be sad again some day.

[ragnar0k]

lol... roger ver has insider trading, we have ML! He predicted this correction...
I just hope we wont go to 10k like he says, though I am not panicing as he expects 100k next XD

I think ten grand is in the bag pretty much. It's not looking too enthusiastic at present and it's not that much further to fall really. Sad for peak buyers but if it continues to play out as predicted then they won't be sad again some day.

Its obvious that the big guys want to make the most money before we shoot high at the expense of late comers. Let's see...

[Swapster]

Just got off the phone with Jim Cramer... he said... BUY BUY BUY!!!!

[Biodom]

Haven't heard something substantial lately apart from some light jokes.

Long term ML graph still points to higher, but I agree that a trip to around 10k would be beneficial if it ends there.
If, however, we overshoot 10K to the downside, then we may end up at 7k and would have to spend months building up from there with no guarantees that it is not a long term bear, although it currently seems unlikely.

[Bitcoinaire]

"Бaбкин paдикyлит-тo нe вpёт! Hизкo пoшёл, видaть к дoждю... Xpeнoвo кoнeчнo чтo c 20к пaдaeм, a нe c 15 - мoжeт зaтянyтьcя. Hy пoглядим."


Babkin radiculitis is not lying! Low went, see to the rain ... It's a shame of course that with a 20k drop, and not with 15 - can drag on. Well, we'll see.

What does this mean, lol?

Since it broke 15k, it will go lower?

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

[Andergriff]

"Бaбкин paдикyлит-тo нe вpёт! Hизкo пoшёл, видaть к дoждю... Xpeнoвo кoнeчнo чтo c 20к пaдaeм, a нe c 15 - мoжeт зaтянyтьcя. Hy пoглядим."

"Grandma's radiculitis does not lie! Low went, it seems to rain (something like a Russian proverb: low birds fly, it means it will rain)... It's bad that from 20k drop, not from 15k - can drag on. Well, we'll see."

[milkshock100]

"Бaбкин paдикyлит-тo нe вpёт! Hизкo пoшёл, видaть к дoждю... Xpeнoвo кoнeчнo чтo c 20к пaдaeм, a нe c 15 - мoжeт зaтянyтьcя. Hy пoглядим."


Babkin radiculitis is not lying! Low went, see to the rain ... It's a shame of course that with a 20k drop, and not with 15 - can drag on. Well, we'll see.

What does this mean, lol?

Since it broke 15k, it will go lower?

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

No he means the drop started from 20k and not from 15k, which makes things worse. And that this could now drag on.

[Denker]

"Бaбкин paдикyлит-тo нe вpёт! Hизкo пoшёл, видaть к дoждю... Xpeнoвo кoнeчнo чтo c 20к пaдaeм, a нe c 15 - мoжeт зaтянyтьcя. Hy пoглядим."


Babkin radiculitis is not lying! Low went, see to the rain ... It's a shame of course that with a 20k drop, and not with 15 - can drag on. Well, we'll see.

What does this mean, lol?

Since it broke 15k, it will go lower?

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

No he means the drop started from 20k and not from 15k, which makes things worse. And that this could now drag on.

Woulda, shoulda, coulda.
Means he doesn't know more than you do if you've done some proper analysis.
We could have found the bottom here. We could continue going lower to 10k. And when shit really should hit the fan we could go even as low as 8k or even more.

[Hope_Trader]

https://pasteboard.co/GZob5ki.png

Before I say anything I did read the earlier disdain for alts that luc has, but on this occasion it may be worth bringing them up.


Something that's been bothering me for some time are these charts, and now that this sell off is starting to sink in, I think there may be a clue here. The charts are almost too perfect, but as you can see, the lower trendline of ethbtc had massive support, and btc sold off massively at that time despite being in a full blown parabolic rise. The alts were respected and money moved from btc to them. LTC also pumped massively. I don't think we should discount the action of alts.

So, in isolation, luc has compared this BTC run to the April 2013 run, and has previously suggested a wave 4 coming which are generally quite long correctives. If the ether charts are remotely correct, then the arbitrary targets I drew would give us BTC at $10k at the time ether reaches a value of 0.4 btc or $4k. Please bear in mind I just drew those lines freehand looking at the general trajectory of previous waves so there is no real accuracy there. The trendlines give us something to work with, so you can pick any date along the upper trendline and see what you come up with for a BTC price.

So a price of 10k at those ether valuations simply points to a ranging BTC market. Nothing else I could think of made sense if those charts are to be taken seriously. Given that the post 2013 correction/sideways market lasted for about 6 months, I think luc's earlier suggestion of modelling this run on that year makes a lot of sense given these other clues.

A lot is similar in this market now in terms of the behaviour and the rapidly evolving fundamentals, challenges to the network, lots of new participants, news/hype cycle, exchanges overloaded, people getting burnt, all that stuff... We may even have a new Gox on the cards if the rumours around BFX are true. It's all just an order of magnitude bigger. But humans are humans, markets are markets, lots of noobs got involved, now they are getting burnt in time for Christmas. It makes sense the market needs some time out and some time to coil up again.

Also if the ether charts play out cleanly, they suggest a massive ether sell off once the run is done and ethusd falls out of the wedge, and a move to btc in time to start to give btc some momentum and get a sideways market trending up. So BTC would still be king


Thoughts would be appreciated, cheers




EDIT: not really sure why my image is not displaying... if anyone can please let me know how to fix it? Is it because I'm a new account perhaps?

EDIT2: I also meant to say, I wouldn't be surprised if BTC hits somewhere below 60%... The 2013 run sold off around 80%, I doubt we hit that level but $5-6k wouldn't be surprising. Lastly, I can see a case for ethusd just dropping like a stone and these charts getting voided... So feel free to void my analysis and let me know why

EDIT3: We my just drop out the ethusd wedge from here, and touch a new lower trendline... so, if that happens my idea is void.

[STT]

The correction already reached its first objective which is $15,700 which is just a Fibonacci level same as the recent top.    Any fright between those two prices is just the audience

How do you calculate the fib levels? OK, so the top is ~20k. How do you figure the bottom, to get the fib retracement to be 15.7?

Im just an amateur but I use the site bitcoinwisdom which has a Fibonacci tool.  I look for the most significant area and then plot in extensions as per the graph tools provided.   So taking the November selloff you get projections for significant areas such as the recent ATH and the possible pullback area of $15,771 which did appear to me to have some support before becoming a top  some hours ago.

We are returning to November prices here, theres never any certain bottom price its just an aid to judging better movement.

[Bimmerhead]

New post:

Ceйчac цeнa втoпилa c днeвнoгo вepxнeгo ББ нeпocpeдcтвeннo в нижнюю дeвиaцию. Гдe-тo oт 11000 и нижe выкyпaть вce 100500% бeзoпacнo.

Mы кaк минимyм вepнёмcя к днeвнoй мa20, a пoтoм тaк вooбщe oттpaccиpyeм этo пaдeниe дo ypoвня 62% фибoнaчи.

[pontikis13]

I was just about to post it but you beat me to the punch bimmerhead 

[ssmc2]

Gd it's so cryptic. What are you saying ML? Lol

[MrBigHang]

New post:

Ceйчac цeнa втoпилa c днeвнoгo вepxнeгo ББ нeпocpeдcтвeннo в нижнюю дeвиaцию. Гдe-тo oт 11000 и нижe выкyпaть вce 100500% бeзoпacнo.

Mы кaк минимyм вepнёмcя к днeвнoй мa20, a пoтoм тaк вooбщe oттpaccиpyeм этo пaдeниe дo ypoвня 62% фибoнaчи.

Now the price has sunk from the daily top BB directly to the lower deviation. Somewhere from 11000 and below to redeem all 100500% safe.

At the very least, we will return to daytime MA20, and then in general we will cut this fall to the level of 62% of Fibonacci



That's what Google Translate says, not sure what it all means.  Anyone can read Russian?

[btcone111]

New post:

Ceйчac цeнa втoпилa c днeвнoгo вepxнeгo ББ нeпocpeдcтвeннo в нижнюю дeвиaцию. Гдe-тo oт 11000 и нижe выкyпaть вce 100500% бeзoпacнo.

Mы кaк минимyм вepнёмcя к днeвнoй мa20, a пoтoм тaк вooбщe oттpaccиpyeм этo пaдeниe дo ypoвня 62% фибoнaчи.

Now the price has sunk from the daily top BB directly to the lower deviation. Somewhere from 11000 and below to redeem all 100500% safe.

At the very least, we will return to daytime MA20, and then in general we will cut this fall to the level of 62% of Fibonacci



That's what Google Translate says, not sure what it all means.  Anyone can read Russian?

Where exactly are the 62% Fib level and MA20 level?

[Andergriff]

Now the price has flown from the daily top BB directly to the lower deviation. Somewhere from 11,000 and below buy all 100500% safe.

At the very least, we will return to daytime MA20, and then in general we will cut this fall to the level of 62% of Fibonacci.

Who understands this - what are you waiting for? (the song is called Chance)

[cAPSLOCK]

Now the price has flown from the daily top BB directly to the lower deviation. Somewhere from 11,000 and below buy all 100500% safe.

At the very least, we will return to daytime MA20, and then in general we will cut this fall to the level of 62% of Fibonacci.

Who understands this - what are you waiting for? (the song is called Chance)

Sounds to me like he's saying we bounce here...

[flipperfish]

Careful optimism? From the comments:

Anna Petrova: тaк вcё, пocлe oтcкoкa нa 62% ввepx нe идём? цeли 70-100к oтмeняютcя?
Anna Petrova: so everything, after a rebound of 62% up do not go? 70-100k goals are canceled?

Bitcoin Baнгa.: Aннa, ктo cкaзaл? Бyдeм пocмoтpeть!
Bitcoin Wanga: Anna, who said? We will look!

[podyx]

What is masterlucs opinion on the fee problem?