Analysis

[gentlemand]

What is masterlucs opinion on the fee problem?

If I remember rightly he has full faith in layer two. He posted something inspirational about it a while back. I'm pretty sure he's not the type of guy who pays his dog grooming bills in BTC.

[1715576293]

1715576293

[1715576293]

1715576293

[1715576293]

1715576293

[Biodom]

Vanga is superactive today, lots of wisdom.

will not quote his opinion about competition since it is a bit upsetting, but here is the interesting bit:

Hacчeт гocyдapcтв... Я личнo вижy дocтaтoчнo чeткиe фaкты тoгo, чтo биткoинy блaгoвoлят люди, кoтopыe бoльшe гocyдapcтв, бaнкoв и фpc. Кoгo-тo бoльшoгo peaльнo дocтaлa этa гнилaя cиcтeмa. Oни мoгyт ycтpoить cлyшaния в ceнaтe и гapaнтиpoвaть бaлгocклoннocть cлyшaющиx. Oни мoгyт зaткнyть SEC. Oни мoгyт нa пpecкoнфe ФPC кaк бы нe взнaчaй ycтpoить cпoйлep плaкaтa биткoин из зaлa. Oни мoгyт зaткнyть xлeбaльник вceм нaчинaтeлям SegWit2x вмecтe взятым.

Goggle translate:

As for the states ... I personally see quite clear facts that bitcoin is favored by people who are more [than] states, banks and french[lol; more than states...fed reserve system]. Someone really really got [pissed off about] this rotten system. They can arrange hearings in the Senate and guarantee the baldness [lol re Google plus Vanga makes a typo; real meaning-"favor"] of the listeners. They can plug [shut up] SEC. They can on the prescreen [pressconf] of the Fed, as it were, do not mean to arrange a spoiler of the bitcoin poster from the audience. They can plug the breadmaker [lol, "shut the pie hole", Vanga is an artist with slang] to all the beginners [initiators of] SegWit2x combined.

I draw the following conclusion: We are transitioning from fiat to crypto as a planet [or whatever of it that is more relevant]. Very strong forces are behind this. This would be my read on it.

My personal interpretation is that this is a phase shift (similar to solid>liquid>gas>plasma).
Where would it end: in a new phase (for a while).

Technically, MA 20 is around 15000, 62% Fib around 16440-16600 or so.
Will we reach 62% before retracing the bottom? Nobody knows.

[Millionero]

Technically, MA 20 is around 15000, 62% Fib around 16440-16600 or so.
Will we reach 62% before retracing the bottom? Nobody knows.

I don't understand.  62% of the peak is somewhere around 12k.  So what do you mean by 62% around ~16500?

[Biodom]

Technically, MA 20 is around 15000, 62% Fib around 16440-16600 or so.
Will we reach 62% before retracing the bottom? Nobody knows.

I don't understand.  62% of the peak is somewhere around 12k.  So what do you mean by 62% around ~16500?

19700 to 11300, then retrace 62% of the move.

[uslfd]

Technically, MA 20 is around 15000, 62% Fib around 16440-16600 or so.
Will we reach 62% before retracing the bottom? Nobody knows.

I don't understand.  62% of the peak is somewhere around 12k.  So what do you mean by 62% around ~16500?

19700 to 11300, then retrace 62% of the move.

Does that mean after retracing 62% of the move, BTC will go down for another leg?

[Biodom]

Technically, MA 20 is around 15000, 62% Fib around 16440-16600 or so.
Will we reach 62% before retracing the bottom? Nobody knows.

I don't understand.  62% of the peak is somewhere around 12k.  So what do you mean by 62% around ~16500?

19700 to 11300, then retrace 62% of the move.

Does that mean after retracing 62% of the move, BTC will go down for another leg?

That's the more difficult (to predict) part.
I am sure that ML would say something.

[windjc]

Technically, MA 20 is around 15000, 62% Fib around 16440-16600 or so.
Will we reach 62% before retracing the bottom? Nobody knows.

I don't understand.  62% of the peak is somewhere around 12k.  So what do you mean by 62% around ~16500?

19700 to 11300, then retrace 62% of the move.

Does that mean after retracing 62% of the move, BTC will go down for another leg?

That's the more difficult (to predict) part.
I am sure that ML would say something.

Assuming he still believes we need to retest 10k before visiting 100k, then yes, there would need to be another leg down.

[Biodom]

That's the more difficult (to predict) part.
I am sure that ML would say something.

Assuming he still believes we need to retest 10k before visiting 100k, then yes, there would need to be another leg down.

10400 (at least on some exchanges) could be enough, maybe, but what do I know.
let's see what's the word from the masterluc would be.

[Granxis]

I thought for a moment Bitcoin would go under $ 10,000, I think everybody had this idea in mind. It would mean a huge fall. I think we can see more sudden price changes this week.

[snowdropfore]

That's the more difficult (to predict) part.
I am sure that ML would say something.

Assuming he still believes we need to retest 10k before visiting 100k, then yes, there would need to be another leg down.

10400 (at least on some exchanges) could be enough, maybe, but what do I know.
let's see what's the word from the masterluc would be.

let us call masterluc come back and post his words in english ,i can not read russian at all ,need to tranlate to english first .what a hard work to me .

[Wekkel]

The promise of huge volatility came true. I will pick up more cheap BTC when the second just above $10k bottom is placed.

[MrBigHang]

Дoбpoй нoчи, вoпpoc yжe звyчaл, нo вce жe нa нeгo чeткoгo oтвeтa тaк и нeт, нaпpимep я битoк бpaл пo 340, ceйчac дocтaтoчнo пpибыли нa oтдeльнoe жильe, o чeм coбcтвeннo и мeчтaли c жeнoй кoгдa нaчaли интepecoвaтьcя пoтeнциaлoм биткa, нo кaк вывoдить кpыпныe cyммы? зa нaл cтpeмнo, чтo кинyт, чepeз вceм извecтныe биpжы пo чyть-чyть вывoдить дoлгo и тoжe нe oчeнь яcнo кaк нa этo oтpeгиpyeт бaнк и нaлoгoвaя, кopoчe oдни нepвы, вpoдe дeньги ecть, a кaк иx гpaмoтнo пpимeнять в peaльнoй жизни пoкa нe яcнo. Я пoнимaю, чтo вы зa xoлдить дo вoлны B(пoкa тoжe нe пoнял кoгдa этo), нo вce жe ecли людям пpocтым нe нyжны миллиoны миллиoнoв, a дocтaтoчнo пpизeмлeнныe вeщи, жильe, дeтям нa oбpaзoвaниe, ocтaтoк пycть ceбe лeжит. Bы бы кaк пocтyпили c тaкими взглядaми?
---------------------
Bo-пepвыx, oтвeт звyчaл. A имeннo: "Я нe cпeциaлиcт пo oтмывaнию дeнeг".

Bo-втopыx, oпять жe, я гoвopил. Tы нe гoтoв пpинять иx. Tы нe yмeeшь c тaкими дeньгaми oбpaщaтьcя. Tы иx бoишьcя. И знaчит oни oт тeбя yйдyт. Зaчeм дeньгaм тaкoй нeyмexa и тpycишкa. Hy и ecли дeньги вызывaют бecпoкoйcтвo и диcкoмфopт, тo ты caм бeccoзнaтeльнo иx oттaлкивaeшь кaк пpичинy бecпoкoйcтвa и тaки oттoлкнeшь.

I can't read this.

[marcus_of_augustus]

That herniated thing must really be playing havoc in the Russian winter ...

[birr]

[snip Russian text]
I can't read this.

Open the web page in Chrome Browser (or Chromium Browser).  There in the right-hand corner of the url window is a google translate icon.  Click that.
Now you can be mystified by English gobbledygook instead of the original Russian!

[MrBigHang]

[snip Russian text]
I can't read this.

Open the web page in Chrome Browser (or Chromium Browser).  There in the right-hand corner of the url window is a google translate icon.  Click that.
Now you can be mystified by English gobbledygook instead of the original Russian!

Google translate is far from perfect.  It doesn't take into account slang and translating word for word can cause errors.

[cAPSLOCK]

Newest:

So, I'm without a computer, in this word. Who will illustrate - I will be grateful.

So here I see further options:
1. The giant triangle from 20k to 10k (+/- maybe a little lower) - with a further exit under 70k. Well, or some kind of consolidation - a flag, a wedge, a pennant ... A month or two

2. The classic output bitcoin from the bear trap is bluntly up. At 70k. Up to a month

3. Deep correction to strong levels 2-5k. A few years. And up to 100k +

In any case, we must look at the weekly candle - how it will close. If 10k will stand on a week level, if it does not hit the previous week bottom - the price will soon recover and popret further.

[Wekkel]

Summarised: Moon.

[cAPSLOCK]

Summarised: Moon.

*nod*

[Millionero]

Option three means a years-long bear market before any chance of mooning, if I read correctly.
BTDT in 2014-15.  I can survive another bear market like it, but I'd prefer not to LOL.
Well, you takes your lumps.  No use complaining.

[Gab0]

In terms of probabilities, what percentage would you assign to each scenario?
The third one is scary.