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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 941360 times)
exstasie
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October 29, 2018, 07:31:50 PM
 #6081

On Bitfinex support did hold so far.
Moreover still within BB and Keltner.
Still squeezing.

I wouldn't bet on direction till squeeze is released.

We'll see.
At least we've got some action.

It's finally starting to feel like the breakout is coming. And what often comes before a breakout? A fakeout. Smiley

We broke down from the 4-hour squeeze, but we're still comfortably within the daily Bollinger Bands. Price was dumping when I went to sleep, but seems there was no follow-through overnight.

Anecdotally, all my friends closed their longs. Could be a good old stop run. We've got a nail-biter here.

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ft73
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October 30, 2018, 07:54:45 AM
Merited by Wekkel (1)
 #6082




A pullback to the edge of the wedge is likely, but it's ... almost there.
Volume is the key.
Tzupy
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November 06, 2018, 09:54:03 AM
 #6083

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN.  Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?  

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "


Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"TM.  

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

While the 12h PSAR started high, it developed towards a bullish flip, which may happen today or tomorrow. Support held while not entering oversold on daily and existed oversold on 12h.
Several major alts also look like they are forming bullish double bottoms in MACD, with daily MACD bullish crossings possible soon. And coinsight is back, nice... Smiley

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
MarquiseMuseum
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November 09, 2018, 03:14:11 AM
 #6084

200% alt rally in 20 days, global 422

Patent studied 2017 Certified ABT/NFT catalogue
https://waves.exchange/trading/spot/BS1KFNR8zrXKBEWdUUvpaP6G57Hic3aESkwK7qQKdLpB_WAVES
ABTx swap certificate for https://rarible.com/MarquiseMuseum/sale 7.5m tokens per NFT
podyx
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November 09, 2018, 02:39:50 PM
 #6085

Things aren't looking so good anymore Undecided
JayJuanGee
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November 09, 2018, 03:23:33 PM
 #6086

Things aren't looking so good anymore Undecided

You referring to alts or to bitcoin, or to both?

I would not mix up short term dynamics with long term bitcoin prospects and if we stick with bitcoin, things seem to be looking good, even with some of the various ongoing short terms shake ups, including our ongoing current correction down from $19,666 to our current location bouncing around in the supra $6k price area.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
exstasie
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November 10, 2018, 07:19:01 AM
 #6087

Things aren't looking so good anymore Undecided

It got rejected at the 1-day upper Bollinger Band. Price has stopped at the bands in both directions for the past two months. I guess we shouldn't be surprised at the failure to breakout. Smiley

I'd call it sideways, painful sideways. Now the ball is back in the bears' court. A new low sub-$6,200 (Bitstamp) might get things rolling.

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November 15, 2018, 11:18:11 AM
Last edit: November 15, 2018, 06:17:05 PM by emifox
 #6088

"Enky was right

https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2018/10/01/long-term-update-nothing-new-to-report

"

So, wait for 4k or 5.2k can hold?
fright
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November 19, 2018, 07:44:10 PM
 #6089

New update from Master. Who can translate better than google translate?

"Hy cитyaцию вы видитe. Пo нeдeльнoмy бб пoшлo pacшиpeниe движeниeм вниз. Дoкyдa вниз? Enky был пpaв. He иcключaю кacaния нeдeльнoй мa200 @3000.

Bмecтe c тeм, дoлгocpoчный тpeнд нe нapyшeн, пoкa нe пpикacaeм ypoвeнь $1200. Дa, я знaю чтo мы пpoбили лoгapифмичecкий тpeнд, нo битoк pacтeт нe пo пpямoмy тpeндy, a пo sqrt-тpeндy. Пo этoмy, ближaйшaя пoддepжкa - нeдeльнaя мa200.

Moгy cкaзaть, чтo 10 мecяцeв нaзaд, кoгдa я пиcaл, чтo кoppeкция пpoдлитcя гoд - чёт мнe caмoмy мaлo кaзaлocь. Ho я opиeнтиpoвaлcя нa мoдeль кoppeкции 2011-2012, и oнa пoчти cpaбoтaлa. Enky opиeнтиpoвaлcя нa мoдeль 2013-2015. Cкopeй вceгo бyдeт вooбщe чтo-тo тpeтьe. Ho eгo мoдeль пoкa paбoтaeт, a мoя yжe нeт.

B oбщeм кoppeкция пoкa зaтягивaeтcя чyть бoльшe,чeм нa гoд. Пaникepы ocтaнyтcя бeз штaнoв, a enky cкopo зaйдeт в Лoнг. A я ничeгo нe дeлaю. Кaк вceгдa Smiley"
jadenunderhill
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November 19, 2018, 07:55:59 PM
Last edit: November 19, 2018, 09:07:12 PM by jadenunderhill
Merited by BldSwtTrs (3)
 #6090

Here is my translation:


Well, you see the situation. Weekly bb went expansion down. How far down? Enky was right. I do not exclude that it will touch the weekly ma200   - $3000.

At the same time, the long-term trend is not broken until we touch the $ 1200 level. Yes, I know that we broke the logarithmic trend, but BTC  doesn’t grow along a straight trend, but the sqrt trend. That’s why, the nearest support is weekly ma200.

I can say that 10 months ago, when I wrote that the correction will last a year - it seemed too little for me. But I was guided by the 2011-2012 correction model, and it almost worked. Enky was guided by the model 2013-2015. Most likely there will be something third. His model is still working, but mine is gone.

In general, the correction is delayed for a little more than a year. The alarmists will be left without pants, and Enky will soon go to Long. And I’ll do nothing. As always Smiley
jadenunderhill
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November 19, 2018, 08:08:43 PM
 #6091

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?
gentlemand
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November 19, 2018, 08:16:34 PM
 #6092

May be, his crystal ball is broken?

His crystal ball diverged from the predictions that made his rep a long time ago.

I'm still interested in what he has to say but he's just as human as the rest of us. He had a good run all the same. Maybe he'll bounce back.
fright
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November 19, 2018, 08:30:08 PM
 #6093

Would be nice to get new Enky comment.
gentlemand
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November 19, 2018, 08:52:16 PM
 #6094

Would be nice to get new Enky comment.

It's still going the way he predicted so there's no need for him to make a new comment. I follow him on Twitter but he's clearly a man of action, not words. Haven't heard a squeak for months.
drays
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November 20, 2018, 09:10:45 PM
 #6095

Yep, masterluc is human, and he seems to be as confused as everyone else (except the market manipulators themselves).

Anyway... @ft73, your analysis was very interesting... I am really curious to see how the OBV graph is looking at the moment. Did we enter (or even cross) the yellow zone?

... this space is not for rent ...
mattimann
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November 21, 2018, 06:15:08 PM
 #6096

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?


I followed him for a long Time. Let´s be honest... He made 2 or 3 good calls, but also way more bad calls. I think this guy has as little a clue about what´s going on as me or most others...
I don´t take too serious what he´s predictions are anymore...
figmentofmyass
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November 21, 2018, 10:06:08 PM
 #6097

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?

I followed him for a long Time. Let´s be honest... He made 2 or 3 good calls, but also way more bad calls. I think this guy has as little a clue about what´s going on as me or most others...
I don´t take too serious what he´s predictions are anymore...

not if you've been following him for years. his calls in 2013, 2014, and 2017 were quite visionary. its funny to see people deride him like this now considering it was only less than a year ago that his epic bubble predictions were coming to fruition.

back in the days he was more inclined to wait and react to BB expansion before predicting trends. perhaps he ought to get back to that.

Wekkel
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November 21, 2018, 10:48:52 PM
 #6098

His magic will be restored once we hit $100k  Roll Eyes

mattimann
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November 21, 2018, 10:49:40 PM
 #6099

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?

I followed him for a long Time. Let´s be honest... He made 2 or 3 good calls, but also way more bad calls. I think this guy has as little a clue about what´s going on as me or most others...
I don´t take too serious what he´s predictions are anymore...

not if you've been following him for years. his calls in 2013, 2014, and 2017 were quite visionary. its funny to see people deride him like this now considering it was only less than a year ago that his epic bubble predictions were coming to fruition.

back in the days he was more inclined to wait and react to BB expansion before predicting trends. perhaps he ought to get back to that.

Oh, i did´nt try to deride him. In fact i quite respect him. And as i told, i was following him for some years. But i think thin have changed. This Market is manipulated more than ever before, wat makes it really difficult to maky any predictions. So, still good to follow him to learn something, but i woul´nt take the predictions too serious... Nevertheless i´m still here... Roll Eyes
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November 22, 2018, 11:01:20 PM
 #6100

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/4JxEfg1a-Will-we-ultimately-see-a-textbook-flat-correction-since-ATH/
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