Analysis

[ft73]

Moving at a very slow pace.
Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze.

Global OBV:


Local OBV:
~snip~

Few days left for (A).
Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant".

@ft73: how the OBV chart is looking now? Did we reach the levels marked in yellow?

No, see the 3 horizontal blue dashed lines.

Technically it's above resistance now on Bitstamp, but it does not look like that on Bitfinex yet.



Anyway, no volume no buy.

Take a look at this as well:



We need that support to hold in order to hope for a breakout without moving lower.

[1679574647]

1679574647

[Andergriff]

New post @bitcoin_wanga from telegram

https://imgur.com/a/Zjq8Ksv

Cмoтpитe мeдвeжьи дивepгeнции кaкиe бeшeныe нa нeдeльныx cтoкax. Пo ocциллятopa.

Ho ecли cтoки yпaдyт, битoчeк зa ними в этoт paз нe пocлeдyeт.

Translated

See bearish divergences which are mad for weekly stocks. By oscillator.

But if stocks fall, bitcoin will not follow them this time.

[fright]

someone got better translation?

[Wekkel]

A bad period for stocks would fit the thesis of Bitcoin staying down/muted for a few more months. If Bitcoin then also catches a cold from falling stocks (risk off), a scenario of $4,800 could materialise. But the master seems to have increasing faith in the medium term.

[baseke]

someone got better translation?

Look at this crazy bearish divergences on stocks on weekly. By oscillators.  But if stocks fall this time btc won't follow them.

[Tzupy]

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...

[marcus_of_augustus]

bakkt up the truck, the fun  is about to commence.

[figmentofmyass]

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...

short/long ratio on bitfinex is bullish. shorts are still much higher than longs, which means more fuel for an upside breakout. the ratio looked more bullish a week ago though.

as the master pointed out some time ago, the $6000-7000 range still looks like an accumulation level. between that and the commitment of traders, i'm slightly bullish. but from a TA standpoint, i'm pretty neutral. just waiting for a breakout.

[adaseb]

In my opinion the stock market hasn't exactly crashed. Yes some stocks had bad -20% days or so but we are not entering a bearish recession just yet. If you look at this from a weekly or monthly chart, stocks are still bullish.

The only people who think there is going to be a stock market crash are retail new traders and places like CNBC or Bloomberg but the big hedge funds and Soros are all busy buying up everyone's stock which they are all selling at a loss.

If we do actually enter some type of recession, then there might appear to be some outflows of the stock market and into the crypto market. However until the stock markets break the 2018 lows which is support, its too early to say.

The stocks are a buy at the moment.

[JayJuanGee]

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN.  Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer? 

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "


Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"^TM. 

[ft73]

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...

short/long ratio on bitfinex is bullish. shorts are still much higher than longs, which means more fuel for an upside breakout. the ratio looked more bullish a week ago though.

as the master pointed out some time ago, the $6000-7000 range still looks like an accumulation level. between that and the commitment of traders, i'm slightly bullish. but from a TA standpoint, i'm pretty neutral. just waiting for a breakout.

AND we got a falling wedge on Bitfinex + Keltner channel squeeze.



BUT Weekly volume is close to historical low for the last 2 years.

No volume = no signal.

[Tzupy]

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN.  Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?  

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "


Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"^TM.  

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

[ft73]

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN.  Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?  

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "


Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"^TM.  

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

I'm not sure, actually.

Volume is increased, but uninpressive so far.
Cannot rule out a fakeout.

To go further down on Bitstamp price should pierce through MACD /12H dynamic support



Otherwise rebound expected.

On Bitfinex support did hold so far.
Moreover still within BB and Keltner.
Still squeezing.

I wouldn't bet on direction till squeeze is released.



We'll see.
At least we've got some action.

[exstasie]

On Bitfinex support did hold so far.
Moreover still within BB and Keltner.
Still squeezing.

I wouldn't bet on direction till squeeze is released.

We'll see.
At least we've got some action.

It's finally starting to feel like the breakout is coming. And what often comes before a breakout? A fakeout.

We broke down from the 4-hour squeeze, but we're still comfortably within the daily Bollinger Bands. Price was dumping when I went to sleep, but seems there was no follow-through overnight.

Anecdotally, all my friends closed their longs. Could be a good old stop run. We've got a nail-biter here.

[ft73]

A pullback to the edge of the wedge is likely, but it's ... almost there.
Volume is the key.

[Tzupy]

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN.  Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?  

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "


Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"^TM.  

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

While the 12h PSAR started high, it developed towards a bullish flip, which may happen today or tomorrow. Support held while not entering oversold on daily and existed oversold on 12h.
Several major alts also look like they are forming bullish double bottoms in MACD, with daily MACD bullish crossings possible soon. And coinsight is back, nice...

[MarquiseMuseum]

200% alt rally in 20 days, global 422

[podyx]

Things aren't looking so good anymore

[JayJuanGee]

Things aren't looking so good anymore

You referring to alts or to bitcoin, or to both?

I would not mix up short term dynamics with long term bitcoin prospects and if we stick with bitcoin, things seem to be looking good, even with some of the various ongoing short terms shake ups, including our ongoing current correction down from $19,666 to our current location bouncing around in the supra $6k price area.

[exstasie]

Things aren't looking so good anymore

It got rejected at the 1-day upper Bollinger Band. Price has stopped at the bands in both directions for the past two months. I guess we shouldn't be surprised at the failure to breakout.

I'd call it sideways, painful sideways. Now the ball is back in the bears' court. A new low sub-$6,200 (Bitstamp) might get things rolling.