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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940435 times)
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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November 09, 2018, 03:23:33 PM
 #6121

Things aren't looking so good anymore Undecided

You referring to alts or to bitcoin, or to both?

I would not mix up short term dynamics with long term bitcoin prospects and if we stick with bitcoin, things seem to be looking good, even with some of the various ongoing short terms shake ups, including our ongoing current correction down from $19,666 to our current location bouncing around in the supra $6k price area.

Of course, we have to deal with ESG, KYC & AML, but each of them are attack vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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exstasie
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November 10, 2018, 07:19:01 AM
 #6122

Things aren't looking so good anymore Undecided

It got rejected at the 1-day upper Bollinger Band. Price has stopped at the bands in both directions for the past two months. I guess we shouldn't be surprised at the failure to breakout. Smiley

I'd call it sideways, painful sideways. Now the ball is back in the bears' court. A new low sub-$6,200 (Bitstamp) might get things rolling.

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November 15, 2018, 11:18:11 AM
Last edit: November 15, 2018, 06:17:05 PM by emifox
 #6123

"Enky was right

https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2018/10/01/long-term-update-nothing-new-to-report

"

So, wait for 4k or 5.2k can hold?
fright
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November 19, 2018, 07:44:10 PM
 #6124

New update from Master. Who can translate better than google translate?

"Hy cитyaцию вы видитe. Пo нeдeльнoмy бб пoшлo pacшиpeниe движeниeм вниз. Дoкyдa вниз? Enky был пpaв. He иcключaю кacaния нeдeльнoй мa200 @3000.

Bмecтe c тeм, дoлгocpoчный тpeнд нe нapyшeн, пoкa нe пpикacaeм ypoвeнь $1200. Дa, я знaю чтo мы пpoбили лoгapифмичecкий тpeнд, нo битoк pacтeт нe пo пpямoмy тpeндy, a пo sqrt-тpeндy. Пo этoмy, ближaйшaя пoддepжкa - нeдeльнaя мa200.

Moгy cкaзaть, чтo 10 мecяцeв нaзaд, кoгдa я пиcaл, чтo кoppeкция пpoдлитcя гoд - чёт мнe caмoмy мaлo кaзaлocь. Ho я opиeнтиpoвaлcя нa мoдeль кoppeкции 2011-2012, и oнa пoчти cpaбoтaлa. Enky opиeнтиpoвaлcя нa мoдeль 2013-2015. Cкopeй вceгo бyдeт вooбщe чтo-тo тpeтьe. Ho eгo мoдeль пoкa paбoтaeт, a мoя yжe нeт.

B oбщeм кoppeкция пoкa зaтягивaeтcя чyть бoльшe,чeм нa гoд. Пaникepы ocтaнyтcя бeз штaнoв, a enky cкopo зaйдeт в Лoнг. A я ничeгo нe дeлaю. Кaк вceгдa Smiley"
jadenunderhill
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November 19, 2018, 07:55:59 PM
Last edit: November 19, 2018, 09:07:12 PM by jadenunderhill
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 #6125

Here is my translation:


Well, you see the situation. Weekly bb went expansion down. How far down? Enky was right. I do not exclude that it will touch the weekly ma200   - $3000.

At the same time, the long-term trend is not broken until we touch the $ 1200 level. Yes, I know that we broke the logarithmic trend, but BTC  doesn’t grow along a straight trend, but the sqrt trend. That’s why, the nearest support is weekly ma200.

I can say that 10 months ago, when I wrote that the correction will last a year - it seemed too little for me. But I was guided by the 2011-2012 correction model, and it almost worked. Enky was guided by the model 2013-2015. Most likely there will be something third. His model is still working, but mine is gone.

In general, the correction is delayed for a little more than a year. The alarmists will be left without pants, and Enky will soon go to Long. And I’ll do nothing. As always Smiley
jadenunderhill
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November 19, 2018, 08:08:43 PM
 #6126

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?
gentlemand
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Welt Am Draht


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November 19, 2018, 08:16:34 PM
 #6127

May be, his crystal ball is broken?

His crystal ball diverged from the predictions that made his rep a long time ago.

I'm still interested in what he has to say but he's just as human as the rest of us. He had a good run all the same. Maybe he'll bounce back.
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November 19, 2018, 08:30:08 PM
 #6128

Would be nice to get new Enky comment.
gentlemand
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Welt Am Draht


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November 19, 2018, 08:52:16 PM
 #6129

Would be nice to get new Enky comment.

It's still going the way he predicted so there's no need for him to make a new comment. I follow him on Twitter but he's clearly a man of action, not words. Haven't heard a squeak for months.
drays
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November 20, 2018, 09:10:45 PM
 #6130

Yep, masterluc is human, and he seems to be as confused as everyone else (except the market manipulators themselves).

Anyway... @ft73, your analysis was very interesting... I am really curious to see how the OBV graph is looking at the moment. Did we enter (or even cross) the yellow zone?

... this space is not for rent ...
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November 21, 2018, 06:15:08 PM
 #6131

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?


I followed him for a long Time. Let´s be honest... He made 2 or 3 good calls, but also way more bad calls. I think this guy has as little a clue about what´s going on as me or most others...
I don´t take too serious what he´s predictions are anymore...
figmentofmyass
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November 21, 2018, 10:06:08 PM
 #6132

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?

I followed him for a long Time. Let´s be honest... He made 2 or 3 good calls, but also way more bad calls. I think this guy has as little a clue about what´s going on as me or most others...
I don´t take too serious what he´s predictions are anymore...

not if you've been following him for years. his calls in 2013, 2014, and 2017 were quite visionary. its funny to see people deride him like this now considering it was only less than a year ago that his epic bubble predictions were coming to fruition.

back in the days he was more inclined to wait and react to BB expansion before predicting trends. perhaps he ought to get back to that.

Wekkel
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yes


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November 21, 2018, 10:48:52 PM
 #6133

His magic will be restored once we hit $100k  Roll Eyes

mattimann
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November 21, 2018, 10:49:40 PM
 #6134

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?

I followed him for a long Time. Let´s be honest... He made 2 or 3 good calls, but also way more bad calls. I think this guy has as little a clue about what´s going on as me or most others...
I don´t take too serious what he´s predictions are anymore...

not if you've been following him for years. his calls in 2013, 2014, and 2017 were quite visionary. its funny to see people deride him like this now considering it was only less than a year ago that his epic bubble predictions were coming to fruition.

back in the days he was more inclined to wait and react to BB expansion before predicting trends. perhaps he ought to get back to that.

Oh, i did´nt try to deride him. In fact i quite respect him. And as i told, i was following him for some years. But i think thin have changed. This Market is manipulated more than ever before, wat makes it really difficult to maky any predictions. So, still good to follow him to learn something, but i woul´nt take the predictions too serious... Nevertheless i´m still here... Roll Eyes
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November 22, 2018, 11:01:20 PM
 #6135

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/4JxEfg1a-Will-we-ultimately-see-a-textbook-flat-correction-since-ATH/
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November 22, 2018, 11:03:56 PM
 #6136

so he thinks we going down to 3k and that is an entry point to start bull run?
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November 22, 2018, 11:49:48 PM
 #6137

so he thinks we going down to 3k and that is an entry point to start bull run?

He's saying $3,000 (or the 200-week MA) is the nearest support. I'd expect a rebound there and it might be the bottom.

His comment was pretty open-ended regarding price targets. He left open the possibility of lower, noting that touching the $1,200 level = the long term bull trend is dead. I think he's saying the correction will last through 2019, which makes sense based on the 2014-2015 model.

STT
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November 23, 2018, 12:17:16 AM
Last edit: November 23, 2018, 12:32:21 AM by STT
 #6138

Technical analysis of charts is not possible to always be right, its about outlining scenarios and probability to those paths.     A large part of that is external factors, if we were talking about the BTC price in Venezuela dollars and the chart goes up would it really be anymore correct to be bullish.  So dollars rose most of 2018 but had fallen for most of 2017, thats a large part of the factor to the price and maybe outlook for people in Asia in their perception of BTC in comparison I think.

Since theres no doubt dollar is going to peak out somewhere in this area and they cant raise interest rates due to excessive amounts of debts including still wound QE.   Thats an issue in YEN EURO similarly so I imagine BTC chart will turn up at some point but its still not certain how much is inflation of the currency its being quoted in but theres definitely rocket potential still left in BTC charts imo

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November 23, 2018, 12:18:23 AM
 #6139

he doesn't specifically say that correction will last through 2019, but just that it's gonna take longer than he expected(he expected one year)
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November 23, 2018, 08:52:21 AM
 #6140

^Thanks
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