Analysis

[exstasie]

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

And what did he say would happen after 6k

I don't know if he said explicitly. Based on how he drew his triangle bounds and his use of Elliott Wave, I assume he expects something along these lines:

[1714994087]

1714994087

[1714994087]

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[Wilhelm]

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

And what did he say would happen after 6k

I don't know if he said explicitly. Based on how he drew his triangle bounds and his use of Elliott Wave, I assume he expects something along these lines:

In about a month everyone has recovered from the panic.

Upward from the triangle seems a legit conclusion.

[Bossian]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Amazing call.

But there is bad news, I would like to have masterluc's opinion about this: how about the 6.4k support? His nice chart doesn't show what's next but I have a personal opinion that breaking below 6.4k means breaking below 5k eventually (probably for second semester).

Would also be glad to have a long term analysis on years 2022 and further. Trading can be a little tiresome, sometimes it's nice to sit back and do nothing for a few years.

[cAPSLOCK]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Amazing call.

But there is bad news, I would like to have masterluc's opinion about this: how about the 6.4k support? His nice chart doesn't show what's next but I have a personal opinion that breaking below 6.4k means breaking below 5k eventually (probably for second semester).

Would also be glad to have a long term analysis on years 2022 and further. Trading can be a little tiresome, sometimes it's nice to sit back and do nothing for a few years.

Hmm... there's your answer on the 6.4k support. :/

But like I said.  Fundamentals, or whatever we call the market Armageddon we are in right now are certainly causing a fairly extreme situation to unfold rather quickly... 

I really wish I were a trader... this is a traders dream market.

[cAPSLOCK]

Oh no the bullish halving narrative was just a trap 

I have thought all along that it almost HAS to follow a different path this time around.  But I did not imagine it would be the four horsemen of the apocalypse driving it all...

How does that Chinese curse go about interesting times?

[gentlemand]

Oh no the bullish halving narrative was just a trap 

Still is.

In the long run.

You can't have a change like that without an effect however you do need some demand and usage in place. I don't think we're going to see that for a while but it'll be back some day.

[figmentofmyass]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

[Majormax]

But from my standpoint, why care where it goes today, and how/why, if we already know it's on its path to 6 digits?

Because 6 digits isn't guaranteed. Building and maintaining a bullish structure strengthens the fundamentals-based argument for BTC investment. Stock to flow, Metcalfe's law, network effect and all that are great, but bullish trends and Wyckoff structures really bring it all together.

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

Looks like a full scale bear market now. If there is a bounce up to 6.5k, and it fails, then new lows (sub 3k) are possible this year. Already down to 4.8k.

Another low probability scenario is that the whole BTC project is failing, but lets not go there !

Anyway, the halving effect will not be as anticipated this time.

[jadenunderhill]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

[marcus_of_augustus]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

[El duderino_]

I'm curious where we actually are going at..... I'm not to much of a doom and gloom type and do thing some are trying to take advantage through the news, but still the corona hype got some real fear in many humans, hope it doesn't get the best of people in times where they should think things out and have a sober mind ....

[Pseudo-Random]

What's happening is Crypto is Internet Tech.

It has become Wall St, and will rise & fall according to what the stock markets do.

Ever since ETF's, hedge funds & "institutional investor entities" got in a few years ago, that was it. It was no longer able to be something that goes up when the traditional finance markets go down.

Peter Schiff & Andreas Antonopoulos are correct. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset, for a long while now.

In fact even gold/silver struggle to really be risk-off, "honey badger" -type assets. Too much all-infiltrating financialization by Wall St.

Weapons, ammo, tools, vehicles, land, food, water, seeds, humans, animals, skills.

^Those are the true risk-off assets.

[jadenunderhill]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

I think we all understand, that there will be no cavalry. All markets are in sellof stage.

[exstasie]

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

Not sure if we can rely on any indicators now. The goal is IMO to make hodlers puke their coins before the next bull. How low and how long it will take is anybody's guess.

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

[Wind_FURY]

I won't doubt this fucker anymore. /facepalm

Hahaha.

Oh no the bullish halving narrative was just a trap 

The halving might already be priced in.  BUT, use the crash to buy the dip, and HODL. Every crash is a transfer of coins from weak hands to strong.

[cAPSLOCK]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

I think we all understand, that there will be no cavalry. All markets are in sellof stage.

Are you/have you sold then?  You seem pretty sure.  I am less so, so I am leaving my value on the table.  It's definitely a scary time.

[jadenunderhill]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

I think we all understand, that there will be no cavalry. All markets are in sellof stage.

Are you/have you sold then?  You seem pretty sure.  I am less so, so I am leaving my value on the table.  It's definitely a scary time.

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

[gentlemand]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

[figmentofmyass]

I think we all understand, that there will be no cavalry. All markets are in sellof stage.

Are you/have you sold then?  You seem pretty sure.  I am less so, so I am leaving my value on the table.  It's definitely a scary time.

it's scary as hell! i remember feeling a lot like this during those epic plunges in jan or aug 2015. hodlers finally capitulate and puke up their coins, then the market hammers back up leaving them nocoiners.

i'm trying to draw on those experiences now because it's tempting to capitulate with everyone else. i'm glad i managed to sell some coin in the $9000s and $10000s but fuck, i sure wish i sold more! i did not expect this epic crash at all.

it's gonna take some time to rebuild from here. the bubble (if it's still on the menu at all) has been obviously been postponed.

[marcus_of_augustus]

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

Not sure if we can rely on any indicators now. The goal is IMO to make hodlers puke their coins before the next bull. How low and how long it will take is anybody's guess.

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Interesting. Who do you think "they" is this instance?

Are "they" bitcoin's friends or bitcoin enemies? If they are enemies perhaps the whole charade is orchestrated to get a close under the 200WMA and ultimately destroy bitcoin. Then they fight you.