[FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September

[BTCscraper]

SHOUTBOX after Monday Update.
[09:52 PM]   Vlad2Vlad : Jody, I woud like my refund on 2 Little singles I bought in June 2013.
[09:52 PM]   Vlad2Vlad : I sent an email a week ago and heard nothing back.
[09:53 PM]   BFL_Jody : Vlad, you would hate us when BTC goes up if we gave you a refund

Did he/she say no later on?  (I'm not sure it's actually Jody as it appears that posting as someone else is possible in the shoutbox.)

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories. 

[Bicknellski]

You have proof it was outright lying and not a relay of information passed to them from their suppliers? 

Sure, dozens of quotes. Here's the latest:

http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/

Tape out August 2013

When they posted it, it may not have been an intentional lie (I suspect it was, but I can't prove that). But now that we're into the 2nd week of September they leave it there hoping to deceive customers into thinking they're making better progress than they are. So now it's simply a lie.

BFL Tape out for Monarch... definitely a PANTS ON FIRE there.

[FUKT]

@ bcp19

How great is BFL right now?

1 to 10 (10 being perfect)

How well would you score BFL on:

Honesty (1/10)

Refunds (1/10)

Keeping customer informed (1/10)

General Performance (1/10)

Accountability (1/10)

Just the numbers please.

Honesty: Potato

Refunds: Potato

Keeping customer informed: Potato

General Performance: Potato

Accountability: Potato

[BKM]

You ever hear the saying "the trend is your friend"? Here is my approach to measuring the trend in shipping at BFL FWIW

Number of paydates required to be cleared PER DAY For BFL to meet the Sept 30 65 nm backlog deadline

Jalapenos - 8.9 - increasing (bad trend)
Little Singles - 13.6 - increasing
Singles - 17.5 - increasing
Mini Rigs - 20.1 - increasing

Assumptions:
The values are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to August 19, 2013 which is the 28 nm announcement date
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)


To view the trends in the numbers of paydates required to be shipped go to (with color and EVERYTHING   ):
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post56783

I update this linked post as soon as possible after Jody bestows the info on the proletariat. I will also update this thread with the same information

[Bicknellski]

You ever hear the saying "the trend is your friend"? Here is my approach to measuring the trend in shipping at BFL FWIW

Number of paydates required to be cleared PER DAY For BFL to meet the Sept 30 65 nm backlog deadline

Jalapenos - 8.9 - increasing (bad trend)
Little Singles - 13.6 - increasing
Singles - 17.5 - increasing
Mini Rigs - 20.1 - increasing

Assumptions:
The values are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to August 19, 2013 which is the 28 nm announcement date
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)


To view the trends in the numbers of paydates required to be shipped go to (with color and EVERYTHING   ):
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post56783

I update this linked post as soon as possible after Jody bestows the info on the proletariat. I will also update this thread with the same information

Nice work... shipping is slipping. What is the current average of daily shipments so far per unit?

[BKM]

You ever hear the saying "the trend is your friend"? Here is my approach to measuring the trend in shipping at BFL FWIW

Number of paydates required to be cleared PER DAY For BFL to meet the Sept 30 65 nm backlog deadline

Jalapenos - 8.9 - increasing (bad trend)
Little Singles - 13.6 - increasing
Singles - 17.5 - increasing
Mini Rigs - 20.1 - increasing

Assumptions:
The values are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to August 19, 2013 which is the 28 nm announcement date
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)


To view the trends in the numbers of paydates required to be shipped go to (with color and EVERYTHING   ):
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post56783

I update this linked post as soon as possible after Jody bestows the info on the proletariat. I will also update this thread with the same information

Nice work... shipping is slipping. What is the current average of daily shipments so far per unit?

TY - the trouble is that BFL refuses to define what the remaining backlog consists of in terms of units. The only thing they have consistently provided is the paydates shipped which (especially if you have a manufacturing background) is next to useless. The ONLY thing I could think of that made sense was to identify the trend in terms of the number of paydates they need to ship PER DAY to meet their stated goals.

It would simply be much easier if BFL used the proper metric of the number of units in the pipeline and the number of units shipped per day. If they had a good reason not to (in their mind at least) when they first took this approach it has surely gone by the wayside. I for one would not be the least bit concerned if they changed their mind and actually started to use a real world metric instead of something invented by unicorns 

[PuertoLibre]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories. 

Never drink or eat anything they offer, might be laced with hallucinogens my friend!

[Unacceptable]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories.  

Never drink or eat anything they offer, might be laced with hallucinogens my friend!

Don't stay at BFL after the 15th....you'll turn into Josh jr............FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvObIj7MKXY

[Bicknellski]

You ever hear the saying "the trend is your friend"? Here is my approach to measuring the trend in shipping at BFL FWIW

Number of paydates required to be cleared PER DAY For BFL to meet the Sept 30 65 nm backlog deadline

Jalapenos - 8.9 - increasing (bad trend)
Little Singles - 13.6 - increasing
Singles - 17.5 - increasing
Mini Rigs - 20.1 - increasing

Assumptions:
The values are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to August 19, 2013 which is the 28 nm announcement date
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)


To view the trends in the numbers of paydates required to be shipped go to (with color and EVERYTHING   ):
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post56783

I update this linked post as soon as possible after Jody bestows the info on the proletariat. I will also update this thread with the same information

Nice work... shipping is slipping. What is the current average of daily shipments so far per unit?

TY - the trouble is that BFL refuses to define what the remaining backlog consists of in terms of units. The only thing they have consistently provided is the paydates shipped which (especially if you have a manufacturing background) is next to useless. The ONLY thing I could think of that made sense was to identify the trend in terms of the number of paydates they need to ship PER DAY to meet their stated goals.

It would simply be much easier if BFL used the proper metric of the number of units in the pipeline and the number of units shipped per day. If they had a good reason not to (in their mind at least) when they first took this approach it has surely gone by the wayside. I for one would not be the least bit concerned if they changed their mind and actually started to use a real world metric instead of something invented by unicorns  

How is the metric you are using changing over time? It be good at least to see the slippage since they actually shipped a unit.

[joeventura]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories. 

Report back here, anxious to hear what you discover.

[erschiessen]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories. 

Report back here, anxious to hear what you discover.

To be a fly on the wall...

[creativex]

BFL is plainly using pay date data rather than actual numbers of units ordered and shipped/day to ensure that current and future victims cannot draw meaningful conclusions about their own lead times. It's also given them some cover to defend their own non-performance by generalizing about how many orders were paid on a particular day. It's the time honored tactic of controlling the flow of information while bashing the opposition for having a lack of information. These guys are slick.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories. 

Report back here, anxious to hear what you discover.

Report #1: Ready to take a shit and shower after having breakfast with bcp19.

[DeathAndTaxes]

BFL is plainly using pay date data rather than actual numbers of units ordered and shipped/day to ensure that current and future victims cannot draw meaningful conclusions about their own lead times. It's also given them some cover to defend their own non-performance by generalizing about how many orders were paid on a particular day. It's the time honored tactic of controlling the flow of information while bashing the opposition for having a lack of information. These guys are slick.

This.

Also it is very likely BFL has presold a staggering amount of hashing capacity.  So much that if they were a monopoly and nobody else on the planet was mining with anything but BFL hardware those in the later portion of the queue had no chance to ROI% when they placed the order.  Conservatively BFL has sold at least 3 PH/s of dreams.  It is 100% in their interest to ensure customers never know how much capacity was sold.

[joeventura]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories. 

Report back here, anxious to hear what you discover.

Report #1: Ready to take a shit and shower after having breakfast with bcp19.

LOL - Probably start the report after arrival at BFL??

[creativex]

Report #1: Ready to take a shit and shower after having breakfast with bcp19.

TMI bro.

[BTCscraper]

Report #1: Ready to take a shit and shower after having breakfast with bcp19.

TMI bro.

Yeah, no need to tell us about bcp19. :-D

[creativex]

BFL is plainly using pay date data rather than actual numbers of units ordered and shipped/day to ensure that current and future victims cannot draw meaningful conclusions about their own lead times. It's also given them some cover to defend their own non-performance by generalizing about how many orders were paid on a particular day. It's the time honored tactic of controlling the flow of information while bashing the opposition for having a lack of information. These guys are slick.

This.

Also it is very likely BFL has presold a staggering amount of hashing capacity.  So much that if they were a monopoly and nobody else on the planet was mining with anything but BFL hardware those in the later portion of the queue had no chance to ROI% when they placed the order.  Conservatively BFL has sold at least 3 PH/s of dreams.  It is 100% in their interest to ensure customers never know how much capacity was sold.

Agree and this affects everyone involved with mining because even if you recognize the danger BFL represents and wisely choose to take your business elsewhere you're still unable to construct accurate models because there's so much paid hardware already in the queue. BFL can slow down or speed up production at any point and screw everyone's models.

[BKM]

Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories.  

Report back here, anxious to hear what you discover.

Report #1: Ready to take a shit and shower after having breakfast with bcp19.

Glad to hear you are a 'regular' guy.

Please consider the following list of 'to do's'

• Remind anyone you see that we need actual unit production/shipped numbers and that using paydates as a bench mark is completely absurd. It is possible to restore trust but they need to at least give us a reach around as a first step....
  
  
• Tell us if the production manager is a real human. Anytime I ask Josh about the magical end of September clearance of the backlog date he says I will have to ask the elusive Production Manager, Mr Goodacre.
  
  Ask what order date constitutes the end of the backlog.
  
  Give Josh another bag of dicks as I think he ate the other one from Xian. (more likely he had it framed)