[FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September

[a2offrb]

Latest news from Joshua at BFL:


BFL is outsourcing Jalapeno production to a 3rd party company and it is taking time to transfer the process.

Other products are not outsourced and "we are expanding manufacturing capacity for other lines in house"

"The goal is still to get through April orders by the end of September"

"We will have shipped all 65nm products before we begin shipping Monarch Products"

###end of quotes###

So for those keeping score, the quote that he wanted to get through July by end of September is no longer the deal.

The new deal is "through April" , in my mind, "to April means April 1st, through April means April 30th"

So they have shed a portion of orders to Monarch upgrades, and now moved Jalapenos to a 3rd party.

That leaves LS, Singles and Mini-Rigs to get out.

Still don't see it happening. Just my opinion.

When posting this kind of info, put link to source, please.

[Threader]

"BFL is outsourcing Jalapeno production to a 3rd party company and it is taking time to transfer the process."


LOL how about outsourcing COO and Public Relations to someone who gives a shit about their customers.

What a load of BS!

[joeventura]

When posting this kind of info, put link to source, please.

Source:  BFL Shout Box
or Twitter:

https://twitter.com/BFL_News

[joeventura]

Update from OP



 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship  [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
175 299 Days of Little Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
257 404 days of Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
311430 days of Mini-rig orders.   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]

So that's a reduction of 513 "order days per capita" that he has reduced the goal by.

[bcp19]

@ bcp19
Scenario,
You just blew your two front tires on the road. Lucky for you, there a tire station at the end of the road called ADL.

Something PG mentioned while we were in KC made me think about this post.  It's something he and I went through but I doubt anyone under 25 would ever be able to fully understand.

When we were children, you used to have things advertised on cereal boxes that you could send away for once you had 6 box tops.  PG was came from a family with 6 kids, but for me if was just my brother and I.  We both usually wanted whatever it was and then we'd have to amass 12 boxtops to send in.  12 boxtops usually meant a good 6-8 weeks cause we were only allowed to take them from empty boxes.  Once we had the box tops, we'd fill out the order forms and might have to add a doller or so for shipping and then you'd mail it in and wait.  The normal shipping time on these was "Allows 8-12 weeks for delivery".  So, from seeing the product advertised to receipt was a minimum of 4 months, and this was for something they had IN STOCK.

The first deployment I made to Japan, I would call home once a month, a 30 minute call could cost around $100.  Imagine trying to hold a converstaion with someone where you have to wait 3-6 seconds for a response due to the time lag from going 1/2 way around the world.  We've made great strides since then, years later I could call from halfway around the world and there was no perceptible delay and it sounded like you were calling someone right next door.

"Instant gratification" seems to be the keyword.  You've got the commercials with people yelling out windows "It's MY MONEY and I want it NOW!!!".  Everyone's advertising "NEXT DAY DELIVERY!" and people regularly pay the premium to get it.  I recently ordered an old shop manual off Ebay and I could have gone with next day service for something like $25-30, but I selected the Economy shipping.  I placed the order on a Friday and it was in my mailbox Monday.  I guess that $25-30 would have been money well spent! (<-- yes, that was sarcasm)

My background gives me a better insight into the workings behind these companies than most people have.  I know well how theory seldom equals reality.  I've helped test new equipment many times over my career, and engineers don't often stop to think what people will do.  I remember one of the first touch screens we got in and they were showing us how it worked.  The person who brought it was carefully explaining how to bring this amd that.  Then one of the people who would be operating it sat down and asked "But what happens if I do this?" and he pushed 3 buttons at once.  The screen locked up and they had to completely power down the system and reboot it.  The people who create and build things never think to add safeguardslike this, cause they'd never hit all 3 of those buttons at once.

Patience truly is a virtue.

[joeventura]

Been a few days and we really have heard no report from BCP or PG on their trip to BFL.


I find that unusual.

[bcp19]

Been a few days and we really have heard no report from BCP or PG on their trip to BFL.


I find that unusual.

If you hadn't ignored me, you may have learned something.  <shrug> oh well.

[joeventura]

I was early to BFL (PG was searching for someone selling cigarettes and got lost), so I saw the Fed Ex truck pull in and head around back.  I wandered back there and was looking between the building and a semi at the driver carrying ~6 loads into the truck, but felt kind of conspicuous so I headed back tot eh front of the building.  Truck left about 10 min later.  I have to sadly inform PL they were wrong... There was no huge pile of boxes from Friday-Tuesday waiting for us to see.  According to Josh, USPS, UPS, DHL and Fed Ex all normally pickup in the morning, so everything had been sent out by the time PG and I got there.

I did ask Josh about #'s... the only one he gave me though was that my comment in this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg3020097#msg3020097 where I said it likely they had shipped closer to 7,000 Jala's that the low ball number the haters use was accurate.  It was closer to 7,000.  I tried.

Did not meet a Goodacre that I remember(maybe PG remembers), but I wasn't actively looking for him so I may have missed his name when introduced.  We did get to have lunch with Dave "The Knife" though... I didn't see any knives in evidence though.

When asked, Josh did comment he was looking at around Apr/May when he made the backlog statement.

The Kool-Aid was great, PG was given a 5 gallon bucket.  Might be why he woke up in Cleveland.....

I'll let you handle the last one... you and Xian (and a couple others) seem to have the phallic obsession here.

I went back and looked at your posts and did not learn a thing.

I get you weren't there to argue, but when you say things like:

"When asked, Josh did comment he was looking at around Apr/May when he made the backlog statement."

You know that is a 100% falsehood right?

I posted an image of it but here is the actual post:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/3703-josh-its-time-update-bfl-asic-status.html#post45852

Call your attention to:
"I did talk to suppliers and ran some calculations. With the current order book up to today, I expect it to be filled by the end of September. "

Today = July 6, 2013

And again not trying to pick a fight, and didn't expect you to, but seriously?

I'd have more respect if you quoted him and then said this was a change from what he said on 7/6


Unignored.

[joeventura]

So contrary to "tl;dr" I did read your posts.

Still have questions like:

What's your opinion of daily volume?

How many assemblers?

You said you saw stuff going out the door? Any more specifics??

Did you see anything that was contrary to what "the haters" have to say?

You mentioned something about 7000 Jalas, does that mean that they have sent 7000 since they started?

[bcp19]

So contrary to "tl;dr" I did read your posts.

Still have questions like:

What's your opinion of daily volume?

How many assemblers?

You said you saw stuff going out the door? Any more specifics??

Did you see anything that was contrary to what "the haters" have to say?

You mentioned something about 7000 Jalas, does that mean that they have sent 7000 since they started?

To be honest, daily volume was hard to estimate, I was told all of the wafers have been fabricated, but it sounds like there is a supply line issue from the bumping facility to the binning processor to the place in Chicago that populates the PCB boards.  IIRC, the binning facility is supposed to ship 5k chips a day, but had not come close to hitting that mark yet.  Maybe they are getting close as I saw 8-10 assemblers and Dave mentioned an additional 8 starting next week, Josh mentioned that they were farming out the Jalapenos to a subcontractor and if enough boards from Chicago arrive it sounded like Will might win his 2BTC bet.  It'll be close.

The building there is about 110 feet or so from front to back.  I was in the parking lot out front when the FedEx truck showed up.  When I had gotten to the back of the building I was looking through a space about a foot wide between the burn-in semi and the back of the building and could only see the driver carrying packages into the truck.  As it was 102 degrees and no shade, I only watched for a minute or so before heading back to the front where there were trees to stand under while waiting for PG.  As to USPS shipping, there were several of the 'cages' the post office uses there.  Josh said they fill the cages and that way the driver can just wheel them into the truck instead of making piles at the back door.  Saves time for all involved.

In the one thread, I mentioned that using bfl.ptz.ro you could see that a minimum of 938 Jalapenos listed from Jun 23 to the end of Jan along with where the other lines were.  I felt we could triple the total and get a good lowball figure for their shipping to date.  That would be ~3000 Jalapenos which was kind of scoffed at as too high.  I then commented that I felt the true number of Jalas was closer to 7000(my gut said 10k, but I went with 7k) than the less than 3000 the others believed.  I straight up asked Josh if I was right about it being closer to 7000 and his response was yes, much much closer.  I would have to take that as meaning they shipped somewhere between 5k and 7k Jala's, which is the closest I got to actual numbers.

I did see a timeline on a VAP board for gen 2, but as Josh told me it was not set in stone, I feel repeating anything I saw there would just cause more flaming.  I will say that I feel confident that they will have all 65nm product caught up before the Monarch is supposed to debut the end of the year, but that is merely my opinion after seeing them at work.

At the meet-up Tuesday evening, Sonny was there.  PG and I talked to him quite a bit and I found it interesting that they were originally working on the FPGAs for an entirely different purpose when someone brought the idea of using them for Bitcoin mining.  PG  was curious about the name Butterfly Labs and Sonny explained how the work they were doing before had something called a butterfly effect.  When you graphed the results, you had a fairly distinct butterfly shape.  It was an enjoyable get together and I personally found them very forthcoming on all of my questions, even the embarrassing ones I did not relate in full here due to my own discretion.

[joeventura]

All very helpful and it underlines a lot of the facts and figures I have been discussing all along.

I always thought tripling the bfl.ptz.ro was a good estimate.

Considering the sheer volume they are outputting, I don't think that doubling assemblers would be enough but we shall see.


Help me understand the supply chain and the assembly.

A frisbee size wafer is produced by the foundry.

It gets cut up into squares

Whats the next steps and where do the steps happen?

Do the 4gh Engines get attached to the board at the same time as the rest of the electronic components?

Is there anything happening in the BFL building other than assembly (i.e. soldering, chip mounting to PCBs etc) or is that handled elsewhere?

It's 11:30 BFL time and no shipping update for today, so we shall see what Jody has to say tomorrow, just had to ship 16 days worth today! 

Somewhere I heard 55 employees, that seems high.

[bcp19]

All very helpful and it underlines a lot of the facts and figures I have been discussing all along.

I always thought tripling the bfl.ptz.ro was a good estimate.

Considering the sheer volume they are outputting, I don't think that doubling assemblers would be enough but we shall see.


Help me understand the supply chain and the assembly.

A frisbee size wafer is produced by the foundry.

It gets cut up into squares

Whats the next steps and where do the steps happen?

Do the 4gh Engines get attached to the board at the same time as the rest of the electronic components?

Is there anything happening in the BFL building other than assembly (i.e. soldering, chip mounting to PCBs etc) or is that handled elsewhere?

It's 11:30 BFL time and no shipping update for today, so we shall see what Jody has to say tomorrow, just had to ship 16 days worth today! 

Somewhere I heard 55 employees, that seems high.

The bumping facility cuts the wafers into chips.  The binning process may or may not test the chips(I honestly don't know) but they are graded A,B,C and D.  Whether the bumping and binning are done in the same physical location or not I do not know. 

After the chips have been binned, they are sent to Chicago and the chips are attached to the boards.  The PCB boards are made elsewhere and I believe there is no backlog of boards.  AFAICK, Chicago only populates the ASIC to the board.  Since Chicago is able to use all the chips currently coming in, the binning process is the slowdown.  Chicago sends boards to BFL, and they assemble the units.  By my understanding they also currently use up all available boards daily.

So, no, only assembly.

I saw ~10 in customer service, ~8 in the burnin rooms, ~10 assemblers, 7 or 8 in a room I never entered, 4 or 5 that put post-it on finished units and like 6 in the shipping area.  Add in josh, sonny, maybe a couple managers... It was lunch time, so some could have been out.

[torrentheaven]

Update from OP



 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship  [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
175 299 Days of Little Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
257 404 days of Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
311430 days of Mini-rig orders.   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]

So that's a reduction of 513 "order days per capita" that he has reduced the goal by.

So if I order Jalapeno today I will receive it in 75 days, do I understand this correctly ?

[BTCscraper]

Update from OP



 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship  [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
175 299 Days of Little Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
257 404 days of Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
311430 days of Mini-rig orders.   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]

So that's a reduction of 513 "order days per capita" that he has reduced the goal by.

So if I order Jalapeno today I will receive it in 75 days, do I understand this correctly ?

Not necessarily.  It just means that there are 75 days between February 14 and April 30 whose orders BFL needs to fulfill to be able to beat their "end Sep for orders up to end April" estimate.  This also probably means that they were never producing 400 units a day, as Josh's estimate as of July 7 was that they would be able to fulfill all orders up to July 6 by the end of September.  Maybe 200-300 units a day.

[YipYip]

Update from OP



 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship  [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
175 299 Days of Little Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
257 404 days of Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
311430 days of Mini-rig orders.   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]

So that's a reduction of 513 "order days per capita" that he has reduced the goal by.

So if I order Jalapeno today I will receive it in 75 days, do I understand this correctly ?

No u dont understand correctly ...lolz

This is just a reduced target to April 1 orders ..You will still have 5-6 months of orders ahead of you ..

Also if you recieved a Jala today ..it will never make its money back EVER!!!

All of these people who have Jalas still on order are now FUCKED !

[Unacceptable]

Update from OP



 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship  [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
175 299 Days of Little Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
257 404 days of Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
311430 days of Mini-rig orders.   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]

So that's a reduction of 513 "order days per capita" that he has reduced the goal by.

So if I order Jalapeno today I will receive it in 75 days, do I understand this correctly ?

No u dont understand correctly ...lolz

This is just a reduced target to April 1 orders ..You will still have 5-6 months of orders ahead of you ..

Also if you recieved a Jala today ..it will never make its money back EVER!!!

All of these people who have Jalas still on order are now FUCKED !

Even the 30/25GH'ers are screwed,I'm making .18BTC per day as of now with my BFL 30GH'er................imagine in 6 months 

[a2offrb]

Also if you recieved a Jala today ..it will never make its money back EVER!!!

All of these people who have Jalas still on order are now FUCKED !

With diff 1 500 000 it will take only 8 year to make its money back.
so with 15xCurrent diff and  bitcoin price 140$, its still profitable. But Jalopeno should cost about 10$ then

[joeventura]

Wednesdays update looks like every other day recently


Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: Feb 12-14, 2013 no Jallys shipped today

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: Nov. 6, 2012 no LS shipped today

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: Aug 19, 2012 pay date 3 days of progress

MiniRigs: June 23 orders (3rd 500gh/s unit), July 20 orders 2nd 500 gh/s
August 15 for 1st 500 g/s units   2 days & 10 days respectively. Good day for Mini-Rigs


 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship  [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
175 299 Days of Little Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
254 257 404 days of Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
311430 days of Mini-rig orders.   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]

Timer removed. End time: 2013-09-30+23:59:59UTC

[joeventura]

In the one thread, I mentioned that using bfl.ptz.ro you could see that a minimum of 938 Jalapenos listed from Jun 23 to the end of Jan along with where the other lines were.  I felt we could triple the total and get a good lowball figure for their shipping to date.  That would be ~3000 Jalapenos which was kind of scoffed at as too high.  I then commented that I felt the true number of Jalas was closer to 7000(my gut said 10k, but I went with 7k) than the less than 3000 the others believed.  I straight up asked Josh if I was right about it being closer to 7000 and his response was yes, much much closer.  I would have to take that as meaning they shipped somewhere between 5k and 7k Jala's, which is the closest I got to actual numbers.

I did the math on the bfl.ptz.ro

For Jalapenos from Day 1 to the last ship date 2/14/13 there are 1063 orders. So you are saying that the number is about triple that?

Something tells me the factor for Singles is not Triple, but something less than Triple.

On bfl.ptz.ro the amount of singles from yesterdays shipments (nov 16 - 19) is 7 (seven)

Mini-Rigs (August 5-15) is 12 (twelve)
Mini-Rigs (July 18-20) is 3 (three)


Now in BFLs defense, Mini-Rigs take forever to assemble (I would guess) so if they shipped 15 to 20 yesterday that is probably full time job for 3 people.

However the numbers don't add up on Singles. If the factor was Triple, X4 or X5 - They shipped almost none yesterday.

That's all well and good, what baffles my mind is that Josh said YESTERDAY that they would clear to April 2013 in 20 days.

Is he so disconnected or is there some magic wand he has that no one knows about.

[Loredo]

So if I order Jalapeno today I will receive it in 75 days, do I understand this correctly ?

No u dont understand correctly ...lolz

No, but BFL does.  The interpretation you're replying to, of what's written on this thread, is an icon for why Zerlan wrote yesterday that this forum is a tiny force in the mining hardware landscape. 

The reality is that the median mentality wanting to get into mining at this point is somewhere around Homer Simpson.  And there are untold numbers of those folks.