[FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September

[Sitarow]

Here are photos of what to expect the Mini SC units will look like for those whose orders will be shipping in over the next 17 days.



And here are the results for Avalon, Bitfury, and BFL minirig sc operated in the same environment.

[01BTC10]

Can it be used to make phone call?

[Threader]

I just love the worksmanship and attention to detail on the two fan blowhole cuts in the steel chassis.

Looks like a 9 year old with a jigsaw went at it! 

[Sitarow]

I just love the worksmanship and attention to detail on the two fan blowhole cuts in the steel chassis.

Looks like a 9 year old with a jigsaw went at it!  

It is missing one of the right angles that secure the cover to the sides due to the additional power supply.

Apart from that the design and operation is remarkably well done.

I am certain that if given priority, they could have came up with a better solution.

It is unfortunate that they had so many setbacks. This product 6 months ago would've been in better shape as their would of been less competitors on the market.

[Sitarow]

Can it be used to make phone call?

Yes it can

[01BTC10]

Can it be used to make phone call?

Yes it can

Good deal then.

[Fiyasko]

Can it be used to make phone call?

Yes it can

Good deal then.

Yup, you cant argue that. What do you pay for power in your area? im wondering if the Bitfury1 is earning more $/watt than the BFL rig, I assume that it is.. But im also curious to hear the actual cost

[01BTC10]

Can it be used to make phone call?

Yes it can

Good deal then.

Yup, you cant argue that. What do you pay for power in your area? im wondering if the Bitfury1 is earning more $/watt than the BFL rig, I assume that it is.. But im also curious to hear the actual cost

When I had a bill to pay in 2011 it was 0.08$/kWh but in 2013 I guess it's more around 0.10$/kWh. I'm not a miner anymore, too much work -.-

[Sitarow]

Can it be used to make phone call?

Yes it can

Good deal then.

Yup, you cant argue that. What do you pay for power in your area? im wondering if the Bitfury1 is earning more $/watt than the BFL rig, I assume that it is.. But im also curious to hear the actual cost

When I had a bill to pay in 2011 it was 0.08$/kWh but in 2013 I guess it's more around 0.10$/kWh. I'm not a miner anymore, too much work -.-

0.079$/kWh at this location and only 160 watts used for environmental management. It kicks in once every 30 mins and runs for about 15 mins.

NO AC

Power service at this location is interruptible, however only happened two times this year that lasted a total of 40 mins combined.

[Thirtybird]

So 60 day ROI (at current purchase cost) less power costs, which appear substantial.  Congrats on the new job

[bcp19]

In the one thread, I mentioned that using bfl.ptz.ro you could see that a minimum of 938 Jalapenos listed from Jun 23 to the end of Jan along with where the other lines were.  I felt we could triple the total and get a good lowball figure for their shipping to date.  That would be ~3000 Jalapenos which was kind of scoffed at as too high.  I then commented that I felt the true number of Jalas was closer to 7000(my gut said 10k, but I went with 7k) than the less than 3000 the others believed.  I straight up asked Josh if I was right about it being closer to 7000 and his response was yes, much much closer.  I would have to take that as meaning they shipped somewhere between 5k and 7k Jala's, which is the closest I got to actual numbers.

I did the math on the bfl.ptz.ro

For Jalapenos from Day 1 to the last ship date 2/14/13 there are 1063 orders. So you are saying that the number is about triple that?

Something tells me the factor for Singles is not Triple, but something less than Triple.

On bfl.ptz.ro the amount of singles from yesterdays shipments (nov 16 - 19) is 7 (seven)

Mini-Rigs (August 5-15) is 12 (twelve)
Mini-Rigs (July 18-20) is 3 (three)


Now in BFLs defense, Mini-Rigs take forever to assemble (I would guess) so if they shipped 15 to 20 yesterday that is probably full time job for 3 people.

However the numbers don't add up on Singles. If the factor was Triple, X4 or X5 - They shipped almost none yesterday.

That's all well and good, what baffles my mind is that Josh said YESTERDAY that they would clear to April 2013 in 20 days.

Is he so disconnected or is there some magic wand he has that no one knows about.

Triple was the estimate used before, I'm saying it looks to be more like 5-6x from Josh's answer to me.  I didn't ask about Singles unfortunately.

I do think you are fairly correct on the mini-rig build speed.  I know the one assembler was starting one when we left to goto lunch and a little over an hour later had finished that one and was about 1/2 way through the second.

I think the big thing to consider is that it takes 8 times as much to build a mini as it does to build a single.  I've thought about this a lot and something came to me today... when Josh was saying they could produce 400 units, what if he meant 400 boards?  When I think about the amount the binning place is supposed to send to Chicago each day, 5000 chips, if you only made 16 chip boards that would make 312.5 boards.  Since the LS only take 8 chips and the Jala 2, you could easily get up to 400 or more.

Another thing to consider, only chips with all 16 engines working go into the long boards.  Generally 60-70% of chips fall into this category.  If 30% fail at least 1 engine on 5000 chips, thats 1500 chips and that would potentially make 750 Jalapenos.  That number seems awfully high to me compared to the Jala's estimated numbers.  Maybe they've only been using the Grade B chips for Jalas, but that would mean there are a lot of unused C and D graded chips.  The other possibility is they are getting more Grade A chips than normal. 

I'm waiting for next weeks' shipping reports, after the new assemblers come online.  That should give us the best picture to date.  By Wed or Thurs we'll know.

[joeventura]

I'm waiting for next weeks' shipping reports, after the new assemblers come online.  That should give us the best picture to date.  By Wed or Thurs we'll know.

Thanks for the feedback.

If they have 8 assemblers today, and will have 8 more next week.
I guess I am a simpleton, but twice the production?

Even that sadly is not enough to get to the end of April in 18 days.

Again unless there is something I am missing.

So next week they get out 6 days of orders each day, by next week they need to get 20 days out each day (average)

[BKM]

For color and formatting go to the BFL thread here: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post57358

REVISED Paydates required to ship per day remaining to make the stated September 30, 2013 timeline to clear 65nm product backlog assuming the backlog is to the end of April 2013 as stated by Josh in the SB September 10th, 2013

Jalapeno: 4.2__3.9 3.8

Little Single: 9.7__9.2 8.8

Single:.13.7__13.5 12.9

Mini Rig: 17.2__16.4 15.6


Jody's Blog Date: 9/12/2013

Assumptions:
These figures are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to APRIL 30, 2013 as confirmed by Josh on September 10th, 2013
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)
Previous update values will scroll to the right in order to show the trend

[joeventura]

Thursday Update:

Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: Feb 12-14, 2013 no Jallys shipped today, Last time was Aug 30th

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: Nov. 6, 2012 no LS shipped today, Last time was Sept 3rd

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: Aug 26, 2012 pay date 7 days of progress (need 14 days to make end of Sept)

MiniRigs: June 24 orders (3rd 500gh/s unit), July 20 orders 2nd 500 gh/s
August 15 for 1st 500 g/s units   Just 1 day for Mini-Rigs



 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship  [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
175 299 Days of Little Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
247 254 257 404 days of Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
310 430 days of Mini-rig orders.   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]

Timer removed. End time: 2013-09-30+23:59:59UTC

[Fiyasko]

Do we have a betting pool running anywhere?

[joeventura]

Do we have a betting pool running anywhere?

Who the hell would bet in favor of BFL?

[Syke]

Do we have a betting pool running anywhere?

Who the hell would bet in favor of BFL?

PG.

[joeventura]

Do we have a betting pool running anywhere?

Who the hell would bet in favor of BFL?

PG.

PG went to the promised land, he won't be betting on BFL to finish on time either.

[Ytterbium]

Latest news from Joshua at BFL:


BFL is outsourcing Jalapeno production to a 3rd party company and it is taking time to transfer the process.

Other products are not outsourced and "we are expanding manufacturing capacity for other lines in house"

"The goal is still to get through April orders by the end of September"

"We will have shipped all 65nm products before we begin shipping Monarch Products"

###end of quotes###

So for those keeping score, the quote that he wanted to get through July by end of September is no longer the deal.

The new deal is "through April" , in my mind, "to April means April 1st, through April means April 30th"

So they have shed a portion of orders to Monarch upgrades, and now moved Jalapenos to a 3rd party.

That leaves LS, Singles and Mini-Rigs to get out.

Still don't see it happening. Just my opinion.

When posting this kind of info, put link to source, please.

19 days before their self-imposed deadline they go with a 3rd party.  They could have done that months ago on all their products and shipped everything to everyone.

Buuuut.... they didn't.

[creativex]

19 days before their self-imposed deadline they go with a 3rd party.  They could have done that months ago on all their products and shipped everything to everyone.

Buuuut.... they didn't.

That would not have helped them to persuade their victims to transfer their orders to their new vaporware product. Transfers which btw are non-transferable.

If BFL is not producing more hashes than they claim they are and mining it, then why all the deceptions, trickery, & obfuscations? Why destroy your own reputation without apparent gain? Why are their low end product lines so far ahead of their "premium" product lines? Why after so much hassle and confusion did they simply abandon their 1/3 shipping plan?