[FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September

[PuertoLibre]

BCP, you are harshing the FUD and misinformation mellow that people like Loredo like to comfort themselves with.

For anyone with half a brain and second grade math skills, though, all BFL products are profitable to 900+ million difficulty at .15c KW/h @ $120/BTC.  If the price of BTC is above $120, it's profitable even higher.  Yes, at 900 million difficulty, profit margins would be ridiculously thin, but it's still within the profitability threshold that Loredo is trying to convince people is happening at 1/9th of the actual difficulty level (and remember, that's at $120/BTC).  

Profitability clock does not start until the Postman delivers.  That is what the majority of your customers are waiting for.

Want to change the date again?

July 7th

April 30th

What's next?

Don't mind him, his idea of profitability can be a negative ROI.

Most people wouldn't consider 1 or 2...or yes even 3 dollars a day to be profitable. They could probably go to a store pick up any pack of menthols and sell them on a street corner for 25cents a piece. Only then would they gather the quarters to get some clues and some common sense.

If at 100mil it is showing only 3 dollars a day in profitability...well...then it is no longer profitable. Period.

OMG... Did you just give away your whole business plan?  Now what are you going to do with all the competition?

Wanna buy a cig? It will only cost you, your very uncommon sense.

From mining to cigs...yes folks...that is the plan at BFL. Expect cig prices to crash in the near future at a bitcoin miner near you!

[Loredo]

Well, there it is.  112+.  Now the network can idle back a little for a few hours.  And that's a rap on the Sep future.

[Dyaheon]

BCP, you are harshing the FUD and misinformation mellow that people like Loredo like to comfort themselves with.

For anyone with half a brain and second grade math skills, though, all BFL products are profitable to 900+ million difficulty at .15c KW/h @ $120/BTC.  If the price of BTC is above $120, it's profitable even higher.  Yes, at 900 million difficulty, profit margins would be ridiculously thin, but it's still within the profitability threshold that Loredo is trying to convince people is happening at 1/9th of the actual difficulty level (and remember, that's at $120/BTC). 

It's actually a bit over 3 billion difficulty, for a 60GH 300W single anyway. I suppose jallys are pretty close to that in W/GH/s as well.

Sadly that doesn't change the fact that they'll be essentially paperweights (or heaters) at 1B or so.

[PuertoLibre]

If you want your money back, go fetch it from BFL's wallet.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=291205.60

Claw your "cash back" today!

[joeventura]

Don't mind him, his idea of profitability can be a negative ROI.

Most people wouldn't consider 1 or 2...or yes even 3 dollars a day to be profitable. They could probably go to a store pick up any pack of menthols and sell them on a street corner for 25cents a piece. Only then would they gather the quarters to get some clues and some common sense.

If at 100mil it is showing only 3 dollars a day in profitability...well...then it is no longer profitable. Period.

Edit: I mean sure, you could give your kids some lunch money at that point, but then you wouldn't have any profit to speak of...

If its $3 a day, that's only for 10 days, then diff changes again and now its $2 a day, then another 10 days and its $1 a day.

Just remember you paid $274 for it.

In Josh's head if you get to $274.01 in 3 years. You are profitable and his conscience is clear.

[PuertoLibre]

Yep,

That is why you should not listen to the guy trying to grab your money at the car dealership....err I mean online at BFL forums....err I mean on BitCoinTalk...

Fuck it, just don't trust him anywhere or anywhen...or under any condition.

[bcp19]

Don't mind him, his idea of profitability can be a negative ROI.

Most people wouldn't consider 1 or 2...or yes even 3 dollars a day to be profitable. They could probably go to a store pick up any pack of menthols and sell them on a street corner for 25cents a piece. Only then would they gather the quarters to get some clues and some common sense.

If at 100mil it is showing only 3 dollars a day in profitability...well...then it is no longer profitable. Period.

Edit: I mean sure, you could give your kids some lunch money at that point, but then you wouldn't have any profit to speak of...

If its $3 a day, that's only for 10 days, then diff changes again and now its $2 a day, then another 10 days and its $1 a day.

Just remember you paid $274 for it.

In Josh's head if you get to $274.01 in 3 years. You are profitable and his conscience is clear.

The only way it drops to $2 in 10 days is if difficulty spikes up to 165million which would be ~500TH added to the network tomorrow.  To get to $1 it'd then need to spike up to 330million difficulty or adding another 1.5PH to the network.

But hey, it COULD happen.

[Loredo]

If its $3 a day, that's only for 10 days, then diff changes again and now its $2 a day, then another 10 days and its $1 a day.

Nah, not quite that fast.  It depends on how fast they get those BFL chips hashing on the DIY boards, but it probably won't drop below a buck (with current USD/BTC0 until late October or early November.

CAVEAT:  I think there will be 3 PH/s by that time.  There's just too much hardware out there slated for delivery; I don't think it can all be late.

[PuertoLibre]

Don't mind him, his idea of profitability can be a negative ROI.

Most people wouldn't consider 1 or 2...or yes even 3 dollars a day to be profitable. They could probably go to a store pick up any pack of menthols and sell them on a street corner for 25cents a piece. Only then would they gather the quarters to get some clues and some common sense.

If at 100mil it is showing only 3 dollars a day in profitability...well...then it is no longer profitable. Period.

Edit: I mean sure, you could give your kids some lunch money at that point, but then you wouldn't have any profit to speak of...

If its $3 a day, that's only for 10 days, then diff changes again and now its $2 a day, then another 10 days and its $1 a day.

Just remember you paid $274 for it.

In Josh's head if you get to $274.01 in 3 years. You are profitable and his conscience is clear.

The only way it drops to $2 in 10 days is if difficulty spikes up to 165million which would be ~500TH added to the network tomorrow.  To get to $1 it'd then need to spike up to 330million difficulty or adding another 1.5PH to the network.

But hey, it COULD happen.

You seem skeptical.

112 Million in difficulty as of a few minutes ago. The next jump should be anywhere from 128 million (15%) up to 145 million (30%). (In just the next 10 days)

Why are you avoiding the obvious?

[joeventura]

If you want your money back, go fetch it from BFL's wallet.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=291205.60

Claw your "cash back" today!

I pull the trigger on this shortly.

Gave them their deadline.

[Syke]

For anyone with half a brain and second grade math skills, though, all BFL products are profitable to 900+ million difficulty at .15c KW/h @ $120/BTC.  If the price of BTC is above $120, it's profitable even higher.  Yes, at 900 million difficulty, profit margins would be ridiculously thin, but it's still within the profitability threshold that Loredo is trying to convince people is happening at 1/9th of the actual difficulty level (and remember, that's at $120/BTC).

If all you have is second grade math skills you might think ridiculously thin margins are acceptable. We'll be reaching 900 million difficulty in about 6 months, by which point the Jaly will be running not only at a loss, but will not have reached a positive ROI. All BFL products delivered after today will never reach break even.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/c63ab1d40a

I know, for my part, I would not want a device that runs at 200w at 60 GH/s - it would never see a positive ROI.

Now you're talking!!!

[Loredo]

What a wonderful day the 14th of September has been.

Northwest Airlines and Delta Airlines both filed bankruptcy in 2005.

It was the Lehman weekend in 2008; on the 14th, the pending deals were pulled, and the largest BK filing in US history was the next day.

And bitcoin difficulty crossed 100 million this year, making it (in UTC) by minutes.

 

[Unacceptable]

If all you have is second grade math skills you might think ridiculously thin margins are acceptable. We'll be reaching 900 million difficulty in about 6 months, by which point the Jaly will be running not only at a loss, but will not have reached a positive ROI. All BFL products delivered after today will never reach break even.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/c63ab1d40a

I know, for my part, I would not want a device that runs at 200w at 60 GH/s - it would never see a positive ROI.

Now you're talking!!!

OMG,I forgot he said that about Avalon way back when 

[joeventura]

For anyone with half a brain and second grade math skills, though, all BFL products are profitable to 900+ million difficulty at .15c KW/h @ $120/BTC.  If the price of BTC is above $120, it's profitable even higher.  Yes, at 900 million difficulty, profit margins would be ridiculously thin, but it's still within the profitability threshold that Loredo is trying to convince people is happening at 1/9th of the actual difficulty level (and remember, that's at $120/BTC).

If all you have is second grade math skills you might think ridiculously thin margins are acceptable. We'll be reaching 900 million difficulty in about 6 months, by which point the Jaly will be running not only at a loss, but will not have reached a positive ROI. All BFL products delivered after today will never reach break even.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/c63ab1d40a

I know, for my part, I would not want a device that runs at 200w at 60 GH/s - it would never see a positive ROI.

Now you're talking!!!

Josh will say, Well BTC will be up to $225 by then and you will have made money!

[Loredo]

All BFL products delivered after today will never reach break even.

Josh will say, Well BTC will be up to $225 by then and you will have made money!

Or maybe not.

Syke says no BFL products delivered after today will reach break even.  I think that's going to be the problem with any hardware.  It was ordained when a proof of work which lent itself to massively parallel processing was written into the specs of bitcoin:  it produces a situation with no equilibrium. 

The only way an equilibrium could be established is if there were to evolve a handful of colluding or clearly cross-signaling entities dominating the network, each with large network shares, who would respect each others' network shares and drive any non-cartel shares to below net-revenue zero.

Otherwise, the only way to increase revenue is to bring more hash power on line, and the dog begins to chase its tail, circling faster and faster.  That way, too, small miners become collateral damage at an increasing rate.

[Inaba]

All BFL products delivered after today will never reach break even.

Josh will say, Well BTC will be up to $225 by then and you will have made money!

Or maybe not.

Syke says no BFL products delivered after today will reach break even.  I think that's going to be the problem with any hardware.  It was ordained when a proof of work which lent itself to massively parallel processing was written into the specs of bitcoin:  it produces a situation with no equilibrium. 

The only way an equilibrium could be established is if there were to evolve a handful of colluding or clearly cross-signaling entities dominating the network, each with large network shares, who would respect each others' network shares and drive any non-cartel shares to below net-revenue zero.

Otherwise, the only way to increase revenue is to bring more hash power on line, and the dog begins to chase its tail, circling faster and faster.  That way, too, small miners become collateral damage at an increasing rate.

And somehow it is BFL's fault... at least according to people like Joe.

[LostDutchman]

All BFL products delivered after today will never reach break even.

Josh will say, Well BTC will be up to $225 by then and you will have made money!

Or maybe not.

Syke says no BFL products delivered after today will reach break even.  I think that's going to be the problem with any hardware.  It was ordained when a proof of work which lent itself to massively parallel processing was written into the specs of bitcoin:  it produces a situation with no equilibrium. 

The only way an equilibrium could be established is if there were to evolve a handful of colluding or clearly cross-signaling entities dominating the network, each with large network shares, who would respect each others' network shares and drive any non-cartel shares to below net-revenue zero.

Otherwise, the only way to increase revenue is to bring more hash power on line, and the dog begins to chase its tail, circling faster and faster.  That way, too, small miners become collateral damage at an increasing rate.

And somehow it is BFL's fault... at least according to people like Joe.

INABA ONLINE?

Be still my beating heart!

[joeventura]

All BFL products delivered after today will never reach break even.

Josh will say, Well BTC will be up to $225 by then and you will have made money!

Or maybe not.

Syke says no BFL products delivered after today will reach break even.  I think that's going to be the problem with any hardware.  It was ordained when a proof of work which lent itself to massively parallel processing was written into the specs of bitcoin:  it produces a situation with no equilibrium.  

The only way an equilibrium could be established is if there were to evolve a handful of colluding or clearly cross-signaling entities dominating the network, each with large network shares, who would respect each others' network shares and drive any non-cartel shares to below net-revenue zero.

Otherwise, the only way to increase revenue is to bring more hash power on line, and the dog begins to chase its tail, circling faster and faster.  That way, too, small miners become collateral damage at an increasing rate.

And somehow it is BFL's fault... at least according to people like Joe.

Josh nothing is your fault.

Failure of the initial design - Not Your Fault
Failure to ship in Feb. - Not Your Fault
Failure to ship in March, April - Not Your Fault
Chip supply chain problems - Not Your Fault
Power supply supply chain problems - Not Your Fault
Mini-Rig Design problems - Not Your Fault
Customer Service problems - Not Your Fault
Compliance with FTC law regarding refunds - Not Your Fault
Your investors crucifying you any way possible - Not Your Fault


MAYBE, MAYBE 15% of your investors are making a real fuss, your inability to shut them up - Not Your Fault

Send me a PM if you'd like some tips.

Money must be INCREDIBLY tight for you to not be able to afford to make your customers happy.

[Loredo]

And somehow it is BFL's fault... at least according to people like Joe.

As I think you've alluded to, if not explicitly pointed out, if BFL had made timely delivery, much the same economics would have been facing the buyers, only much earlier.

Maybe that would have discouraged the likes of KnC, FastHash, et.al., and the network would have reached an equilibrium.  But with as many ASIC design teams as there are, and as much foundry capacity as there is, that's doubtful.  

In fact, that would have been more likely to encourage a cartel model, built around private chip development rather than retail pre-order offerings.  

[joeventura]

Oh one last question,

On what day will you concede that you won't clear the backlog (April 30th in Josh-speak) by the end of September?


You could always move the goal posts again, Maybe Jan 1st, 2013?