[FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September

[Bicknellski]

Friday wasn't much better

Friday, October 25, 2013 Shipping Update

Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: April 9, 2013  Moved one day

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: March 21, 2013  Moved 6 days

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: March 29, 2013 pay date  One day

MiniRigs: April 1 (1st 500 gh/s), March 25 (2nd 500 gh/s) March 18 (3rd 500 gh/s) and All June 2012-Feb 2013 MiniRig orders complete.  Dead stop


Still 42 pay dates to go to get April cleared up

At current rate they are still on track for Mid November to clear April 2013

Maintaining their "6 - 7 months behind"

It is slipping to 7? Are they actually losing ground?

[joeventura]

April to October is 7 months in my book.  If they don't get all their product lines to April 1st in 4 days they are 7 months behind.

[DobZombie]

The Bets are back on...

Butterfly Labs Will NOT have all Gen 1 ASIC Pre Orders Shipped Out before 1st January 2014

[Syke]

The Bets are back on...

Butterfly Labs Will NOT have all Gen 1 ASIC Pre Orders Shipped Out before 1st January 2014

Sorry, you picked the wrong betting site. They have a huge problem with deciding bets the right way. Try http://bitbet.us/.

[Xian01]

The Bets are back on...
Butterfly Labs Will NOT have all Gen 1 ASIC Pre Orders Shipped Out before 1st January 2014

Sorry, you picked the wrong betting site. They have a huge problem with deciding bets the right way. Try http://bitbet.us/.

 Agreed. Betsofbitco.in cannot be trusted due to their poor judgement on the initial BFL shipping fiasco/bet where they considered a test rig sitting in Kansas that Luke-Jr has access to remotely, as legitimately shipping product.

 If anyone needs a history lesson, it was ~1-2 months after the bet date that product began physically shipping.

[Bicknellski]

The Bets are back on...

Butterfly Labs Will NOT have all Gen 1 ASIC Pre Orders Shipped Out before 1st January 2014

Sorry, you picked the wrong betting site. They have a huge problem with deciding bets the right way. Try http://bitbet.us/.

+1 Use Bitbet not betsofbitco.in.

[joeventura]

Monday, October 28, 2013 Shipping Update

Jalapenos 5 gh/s: April 11, 2013  2 days progress

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: March 26, 2013   5 days progress

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: March 29, 2013 pay date   Dead stop

MiniRigs: April 1 (1st 500 gh/s), March 25 (2nd 500 gh/s) March 18 (3rd 500 gh/s) and All June 2012-Feb 2013 MiniRig orders complete.  Dead Stop



Now remember Jody said all assemblers, basically everyone who isn't accounting etc works 7 days a week

Strangely the progress from Friday to Monday is no better than the progress from Thursday to Friday.

Consistently abysmal.

April pre-orders should be cleared by August  September October  November

Two more days to November and some products lines still in MARCH!!

Josh says he makes predictions on the info he has at the time. Well when he makes these predictions he must be in a porta-john, tied up and blindfolded because they are SHIT!

[Puppet]

Josh says he makes predictions on the info he has at the time. Well when he makes these predictions he must be in a porta-john, tied up and blindfolded because they are SHIT!

Maybe BFL expected (even) more customers to trade their 65nm orders for 28nm miners and "mining by the GH". That way they could "finish" 65nm backlogs much  more quickly, and postpone the pain for BFL miners to next year.

[k9quaint]

After watching KNC ship their first batch, and after watching Bitfury ship their first batch, it is even more evident that something shady is going on at BFL.
There are not enough people with downs syndrome on the planet to ascribe BFL's failures to incompetence. There has to be a parts crunch, and since BFL has known for a year how many parts they would need ahead of time, the only explanation for failing to have enough parts would be inability to pay for them up front. No bank would give them a factor loan given the parties involved.

So BFL orders some parts, assembles some product and ships it. Rinse, repeat. Did they get enough monarch pre-orders to build enough Jalapenos & Singles? Time will tell.

[joeventura]

After watching KNC ship their first batch, and after watching Bitfury ship their first batch, it is even more evident that something shady is going on at BFL.
There are not enough people with downs syndrome on the planet to ascribe BFL's failures to incompetence. There has to be a parts crunch, and since BFL has known for a year how many parts they would need ahead of time, the only explanation for failing to have enough parts would be inability to pay for them up front. No bank would give them a factor loan given the parties involved.

So BFL orders some parts, assembles some product and ships it. Rinse, repeat. Did they get enough monarch pre-orders to build enough Jalapenos & Singles? Time will tell.

Someone just sent them a million dollars in BTC, so they are going to be around for a while

[a2offrb]

After watching KNC ship their first batch, and after watching Bitfury ship their first batch, it is even more evident that something shady is going on at BFL.
There are not enough people with downs syndrome on the planet to ascribe BFL's failures to incompetence. There has to be a parts crunch, and since BFL has known for a year how many parts they would need ahead of time, the only explanation for failing to have enough parts would be inability to pay for them up front. No bank would give them a factor loan given the parties involved.

So BFL orders some parts, assembles some product and ships it. Rinse, repeat. Did they get enough monarch pre-orders to build enough Jalapenos & Singles? Time will tell.

Someone just sent them a million dollars in BTC, so they are going to be around for a while

Wild theory:
They sold all mined coins by BitPay.

[joeventura]

After watching KNC ship their first batch, and after watching Bitfury ship their first batch, it is even more evident that something shady is going on at BFL.
There are not enough people with downs syndrome on the planet to ascribe BFL's failures to incompetence. There has to be a parts crunch, and since BFL has known for a year how many parts they would need ahead of time, the only explanation for failing to have enough parts would be inability to pay for them up front. No bank would give them a factor loan given the parties involved.

So BFL orders some parts, assembles some product and ships it. Rinse, repeat. Did they get enough monarch pre-orders to build enough Jalapenos & Singles? Time will tell.

Someone just sent them a million dollars in BTC, so they are going to be around for a while

Wild theory:
They sold all mined coins by BitPay.

Someone bought a million dollars worth of something from BFL and paid BitPay.

Pay attention

[Puppet]

After watching KNC ship their first batch, and after watching Bitfury ship their first batch, it is even more evident that something shady is going on at BFL.
There are not enough people with downs syndrome on the planet to ascribe BFL's failures to incompetence. There has to be a parts crunch, and since BFL has known for a year how many parts they would need ahead of time, the only explanation for failing to have enough parts would be inability to pay for them up front. No bank would give them a factor loan given the parties involved.

So BFL orders some parts, assembles some product and ships it. Rinse, repeat. Did they get enough monarch pre-orders to build enough Jalapenos & Singles? Time will tell.

I think you just dont realize how much BFL has sold and is shipping. My estimate is that they shipped over 1PH worth of 65nm asics by now. Thats 20,000 singles or 200,000 jalapeno's.  I dont know their product mix, but lets assume its close to 50/50, which would mean ~100K units.  They have been shipping them since April, do I remember that correctly? So less than 200 days and therefore ~500 units per day. Thats more than KnC managed.

Thats not to excuse BFL; if you have backlog of >100K units that are fully paid up front, there is no excuse not to invest in a supply chain to be able to deliver these things a whole lot faster. That 1PH would have netted them $50M and if we assume they are only 1/3 through their backorder log, they would have cashed in some $150M. Surely enough to rent a frigging large assembly hall and hire a boatload of people, preferably people with some relevant experience rather than Joshes,  or do what Hashfast did and contract a large specialist assembly plant. But thats the part they may have done on purpose; the slower they ship, the longer difficulty stayed low, and the more presales they generated. But BFL bankrupt? I dont think so.

[Syke]

I think you just dont realize how much BFL has sold and is shipping. My estimate is that they shipped over 1PH worth of 65nm asics by now. Thats 20,000 singles or 200,000 jalapeno's.  I dont know their product mix, but lets assume its close to 50/50, which would mean ~100K units.  They have been shipping them since April, do I remember that correctly? So less than 200 days and therefore ~500 units per day. Thats more than KnC managed.

Josh has bragged about shipping over 20k units. They're no where near 100k units shipped.

[dogie]

I think you just dont realize how much BFL has sold and is shipping. My estimate is that they shipped over 1PH worth of 65nm asics by now. Thats 20,000 singles or 200,000 jalapeno's.  I dont know their product mix, but lets assume its close to 50/50, which would mean ~100K units.  They have been shipping them since April, do I remember that correctly? So less than 200 days and therefore ~500 units per day. Thats more than KnC managed.

Josh has bragged about shipping over 20k units. They're no where near 100k units shipped.

Of which the vast majority are Japs.

[Puppet]

Of which the vast majority are Japs.

Are they..
I dont remember that website listing a gazillion BFL preorders, so Ill use this for now to get an idea of their product mix ratio's :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0

jala's: 215
LS: 45
Single: 369
Minirig: 25

That list contains a total of 58TH divided over 657 units gives an average of 88GH per unit. So even using a single as default unit is probably understating it.

Josh has bragged about shipping over 20k units. They're no where near 100k units shipped.

I recall it was months ago that I read that. I also read he was claiming shipping 300 units per day back in July (http://www.coindesk.com/inside-butterfly-labs-the-challenges-of-producing-bitcoin-mining-hardware/). Either way, even if its still "only" 20K units,  multiplied by 88GH gives 1.7PH and corresponds to $85M worth of asics shipped (and quite likely a multiple of that in unshipped preorders).

No matter how you look at it, the dollar count is staggering, and the gross profit margin would be close to 90%. As much as I would like to see otherwise, bankruptcy simply isnt gonna happen.

[a2offrb]

Someone bought a million dollars worth of something from BFL and paid BitPay.

Pay attention

I mean that they sold coins mined by "testing" devices.
If they will show, that they got 1 million profit also from just testing devices, customers will hate them more, so maybe they just "bought" hardware by themself on mined coins.

[Syke]

Josh has bragged about shipping over 20k units. They're no where near 100k units shipped.

I recall it was months ago that I read that.

5 days ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=202792.msg3406192#msg3406192

No matter how you look at it, the dollar count is staggering, and the gross profit margin would be close to 90%. As much as I would like to see otherwise, bankruptcy simply isnt gonna happen.

Quite true.

[joeventura]

Josh has bragged about shipping over 20k units. They're no where near 100k units shipped.

I recall it was months ago that I read that.

5 days ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=202792.msg3406192#msg3406192

No matter how you look at it, the dollar count is staggering, and the gross profit margin would be close to 90%. As much as I would like to see otherwise, bankruptcy simply isnt gonna happen.

Quite true.

in Josh-Speak ^tm a mining device can be a single ASIC chip so a shipped single would be 16 mining devices.

[joeventura]

Josh has bragged about shipping over 20k units. They're no where near 100k units shipped.

I recall it was months ago that I read that.

5 days ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=202792.msg3406192#msg3406192

No matter how you look at it, the dollar count is staggering, and the gross profit margin would be close to 90%. As much as I would like to see otherwise, bankruptcy simply isnt gonna happen.

Quite true.

P.S. quoting Josh in any thread is taken as "Here is a reference to a lie" and nothing more.