MrSike
Member
Offline
Activity: 63
Merit: 10
I do not support any of these 3 coins in my avatar
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May 19, 2014, 03:27:25 AM |
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Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now. Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708 Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708 Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708 This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction. How can the dividend go up in the first ten weeks if the reinvestment percentage is much higher? No offence but you have done something seriously wrong. Please post the numbers The dividend will suffer a loss during the first few weeks after IPO but the additional reinvestment will actually keep up with the difficulty increase longer than the original 35% reinvestment plan. As you can see in the realistic projection it will take an extra week to pay off the debt but the estimated BTC each week is also greater that the mine will yield. Notice how the estimated BTC column stays at a higher yield compared to the first prediction at 35% reinvestment and you will understand how a higher dividend is possible after 10 weeks of operation. Since CryptX's predictions are based on 10 day periods and mine are on 7 day periods to equal the target blocktime the reinvestment % is down to 2.1% which when averaged out to CryptX's 10 day of 3% less will be almost the same. Worst case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 1917.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 1695.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 1447.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 1211.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 954.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 713.114 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 487.331 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 246.879 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 26.164 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -206.595 Best case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 -261.027 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 -509.524 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 -745.332 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 -1002.712 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -1243.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -1469.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -1710.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -1930.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -2163.595 Realistic case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 967.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 745.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 497.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 261.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 4.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -236.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -462.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -703.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -923.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -1156.595 Ok. Theres your problem. You have only used the new reinvestment percentage for the dividend for the first week. See where it jumps from 39.239 to 221.778? I don't think you pasted the formula down Thank you for spotting that! Ok after dragging the formula down WOW! This reinvestment plan is amazing for the mine and CryptX! But for shareholders it is HORRIBLE! Worst case: 21 weeks to pay back debt. Best case: 0 weeks but only 707 BTC total dividends paid out to shareholders after 10 weeks. Realistic case: 13 weeks to pay back debt with a total of 22.121 BTC in dividends paid out to shareholders. Edit: added the 10 week time frame to best case.
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BTC: 1167XUNMF95xpRvQphKnKXPiJmP16cgTpm MRO: 49BqijXcCU4MGfp2PGpqETNnX4yjrx9ZNj8TiKUj2N1kAZmY3A5cmHfiDGHnnTDiwbfmE7MZYDrSATz 2AN1JQvtWGVm6MJ6
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mikemikemike
Copper Member
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
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May 19, 2014, 03:32:25 AM |
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Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now. Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708 Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708 Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708 This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction. How can the dividend go up in the first ten weeks if the reinvestment percentage is much higher? No offence but you have done something seriously wrong. Please post the numbers The dividend will suffer a loss during the first few weeks after IPO but the additional reinvestment will actually keep up with the difficulty increase longer than the original 35% reinvestment plan. As you can see in the realistic projection it will take an extra week to pay off the debt but the estimated BTC each week is also greater that the mine will yield. Notice how the estimated BTC column stays at a higher yield compared to the first prediction at 35% reinvestment and you will understand how a higher dividend is possible after 10 weeks of operation. Since CryptX's predictions are based on 10 day periods and mine are on 7 day periods to equal the target blocktime the reinvestment % is down to 2.1% which when averaged out to CryptX's 10 day of 3% less will be almost the same. Worst case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 1917.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 1695.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 1447.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 1211.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 954.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 713.114 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 487.331 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 246.879 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 26.164 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -206.595 Best case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 -261.027 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 -509.524 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 -745.332 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 -1002.712 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -1243.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -1469.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -1710.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -1930.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -2163.595 Realistic case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 967.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 745.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 497.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 261.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 4.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -236.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -462.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -703.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -923.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -1156.595 Ok. Theres your problem. You have only used the new reinvestment percentage for the dividend for the first week. See where it jumps from 39.239 to 221.778? I don't think you pasted the formula down Thank you for spotting that! Ok after dragging the formula down WOW! This reinvestment plan is amazing for the mine and CryptX! But for shareholders it is HORRIBLE! Worst case: 21 weeks to pay back debt. Best case: 0 weeks but only 707 BTC total dividends paid out to shareholders. Realistic case: 13 weeks to pay back debt with a total of 22.121 BTC in dividends paid out to shareholders. Thanks, it's nice to hear from someone else I'm not crazy. Best case : 707 BTC. That's less than a 10% yield. Now please, people, stop being angry at me and start directing it at CryptX. Everything I've told you is true. Now hopefully someone else has verified it you will understand why I've been so adamant about this. I'm not trying to destroy this project, this project is already dead from an investors perspective. I'm trying to save all of you from losing your money, and stop them getting rich off you guys in the process. This is the exact same reason they never wanted to fix the projections, because they knew you would see exactly what they are trying to do. /out until cryptX deleted this post and I have to add it to the other thread.
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Anonymousg64
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May 19, 2014, 03:32:29 AM |
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Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.155 39.2394 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 296.854 44.3575 11606828781 83086.185 1595.000 483.77 119.064 364.706 302.706 62.000 13347853098 95549.112 1674.000 441.505 107.561 333.944 263.816 70.128 13347853098 95549.112 1755.000 462.869 111.778 351.091 263.318 87.773 15350031063 109881.479 1825.000 418.548 100.510 318.38 226.050 92.330 17652535722 126363.701 1895.000 377.915 90.393 287.522 195.515 92.007 17652535722 126363.701 1955.000 389.880 93.084 296.796 192.918 103.879 20300416080 145318.256 2007.000 348.044 83.048 264.996 161.648 103.349 20300416080 145318.256 2058.000 356.888 85.215 271.673 157.570 114.103
and i expect it will go even better as btc value goes up and hardware cost/Gh goes down, which is not factored in here
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mikemikemike
Copper Member
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
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May 19, 2014, 03:41:33 AM |
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Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now. Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708 Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708 Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708 This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction. How can the dividend go up in the first ten weeks if the reinvestment percentage is much higher? No offence but you have done something seriously wrong. Please post the numbers The dividend will suffer a loss during the first few weeks after IPO but the additional reinvestment will actually keep up with the difficulty increase longer than the original 35% reinvestment plan. As you can see in the realistic projection it will take an extra week to pay off the debt but the estimated BTC each week is also greater that the mine will yield. Notice how the estimated BTC column stays at a higher yield compared to the first prediction at 35% reinvestment and you will understand how a higher dividend is possible after 10 weeks of operation. Since CryptX's predictions are based on 10 day periods and mine are on 7 day periods to equal the target blocktime the reinvestment % is down to 2.1% which when averaged out to CryptX's 10 day of 3% less will be almost the same. Worst case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 1917.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 1695.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 1447.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 1211.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 954.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 713.114 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 487.331 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 246.879 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 26.164 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -206.595 Best case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 -261.027 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 -509.524 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 -745.332 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 -1002.712 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -1243.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -1469.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -1710.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -1930.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -2163.595 Realistic case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 967.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 745.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 497.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 261.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 4.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -236.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -462.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -703.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -923.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -1156.595 Ok. Theres your problem. You have only used the new reinvestment percentage for the dividend for the first week. See where it jumps from 39.239 to 221.778? I don't think you pasted the formula down Thank you for spotting that! Ok after dragging the formula down WOW! This reinvestment plan is amazing for the mine and CryptX! But for shareholders it is HORRIBLE! Worst case: 21 weeks to pay back debt. Best case: 0 weeks but only 707 BTC total dividends paid out to shareholders after 10 weeks. Realistic case: 13 weeks to pay back debt with a total of 22.121 BTC in dividends paid out to shareholders. Edit: added the 10 week time frame to best case. Dude, as a final request, can you extend the data set out to the full 52 weeks and post it here so we have a whole years worth of data?
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MrSike
Member
Offline
Activity: 63
Merit: 10
I do not support any of these 3 coins in my avatar
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May 19, 2014, 03:45:51 AM |
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Here's the thing, everything is already set in motion and regardless of if a single share in this IPO is bought CryptX still wins. He still gets his 25% hosting fee and the shareholders are left footing the bill, it'll take a while to pay back the company he bought the miners from but it doesn't matter. He gets his 25% every week and shareholders pay the bill from dividends. Share price doesn't matter CrytpX still makes the same amount of BTC, IPO doesn't matter, just means even less dividends for shareholders.
There is no way for CryptX to lose on this deal unless you use your voting power as shareholders to request the original 35% reinvestment to be used to pay back the company and request 65% in dividends like in the original prospectus. This will at least get you a nice ROI in the upcoming months but the mine will die within the year. This is the best choice for shareholders imo.
I'll post the 52 week data in just a minute.
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BTC: 1167XUNMF95xpRvQphKnKXPiJmP16cgTpm MRO: 49BqijXcCU4MGfp2PGpqETNnX4yjrx9ZNj8TiKUj2N1kAZmY3A5cmHfiDGHnnTDiwbfmE7MZYDrSATz 2AN1JQvtWGVm6MJ6
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pedrog
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2786
Merit: 1031
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May 19, 2014, 03:49:17 AM |
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Dude, as a final request, can you extend the data set out to the full 52 weeks and post it here so we have a whole years worth of data?
No need, because it's bullshit, are you going to run scenarios for every BTC/USD possible value for the next 12 months and possible deals on hardware that CryptX might find in the near future, or 8 months from now? Using current BTC price for the next 12 months is just bullshit...
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Anonymousg64
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May 19, 2014, 03:49:27 AM |
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Here's the thing, everything is already set in motion and regardless of if a single share in this IPO is bought CryptX still wins. He still gets his 25% hosting fee and the shareholders are left footing the bill, it'll take a while to pay back the company he bought the miners from but it doesn't matter. He gets his 25% every week and shareholders pay the bill from dividends. Share price doesn't matter CrytpX still makes the same amount of BTC, IPO doesn't matter, just means even less dividends for shareholders.
There is no way for CryptX to lose on this deal unless you use your voting power as shareholders to request the original 35% reinvestment to be used to pay back the company and request 65% in dividends like in the original prospectus. This will at least get you a nice ROI in the upcoming months but the mine will die within the year. This is the best choice for shareholders imo.
I'll post the 52 week data in just a minute.
it does matter, because increases in their revenue is directly tied to the reinvestment's and performance vs network its in their interest to make sure the hashrate keeps going up, if they want long term revenue they need to make sure they keep mined BTC above the threshold required to maintain their market position also for future projects they need to maintain a degree of profitability for investors
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webbrowser
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May 19, 2014, 03:56:29 AM |
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Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.155 39.2394 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 296.854 44.3575 11606828781 83086.185 1595.000 483.77 119.064 364.706 302.706 62.000 13347853098 95549.112 1674.000 441.505 107.561 333.944 263.816 70.128 13347853098 95549.112 1755.000 462.869 111.778 351.091 263.318 87.773 15350031063 109881.479 1825.000 418.548 100.510 318.38 226.050 92.330 17652535722 126363.701 1895.000 377.915 90.393 287.522 195.515 92.007 17652535722 126363.701 1955.000 389.880 93.084 296.796 192.918 103.879 20300416080 145318.256 2007.000 348.044 83.048 264.996 161.648 103.349 20300416080 145318.256 2058.000 356.888 85.215 271.673 157.570 114.103
and i expect it will go even better as btc value goes up and hardware cost/Gh goes down, which is not factored in here
I don't understand why your hosting fees are going down (and so far below cryptx's own estimates) while the peta hashrate is going up. If you are basing this on BTC exchange rate going to the moon, why not add the column for the exchange rate, so that this best case scenario is compared against holding BTC instead?
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Anonymousg64
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May 19, 2014, 04:00:00 AM |
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Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.155 39.2394 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 296.854 44.3575 11606828781 83086.185 1595.000 483.77 119.064 364.706 302.706 62.000 13347853098 95549.112 1674.000 441.505 107.561 333.944 263.816 70.128 13347853098 95549.112 1755.000 462.869 111.778 351.091 263.318 87.773 15350031063 109881.479 1825.000 418.548 100.510 318.38 226.050 92.330 17652535722 126363.701 1895.000 377.915 90.393 287.522 195.515 92.007 17652535722 126363.701 1955.000 389.880 93.084 296.796 192.918 103.879 20300416080 145318.256 2007.000 348.044 83.048 264.996 161.648 103.349 20300416080 145318.256 2058.000 356.888 85.215 271.673 157.570 114.103
and i expect it will go even better as btc value goes up and hardware cost/Gh goes down, which is not factored in here
I don't understand why your hosting fees are going down (and so far below cryptx's own estimates) while the peta hashrate is going up. If you are basing this on BTC exchange rate going to the moon, why not add the column for the exchange rate, so that this best case scenario is compared against holding BTC instead? assuming BTC value does not move idk about hosting fee, took data from MySike
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pedrog
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2786
Merit: 1031
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May 19, 2014, 04:01:56 AM |
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JESUS CHRIST HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY IT. THIS ISN'T PROFITABLE FOR ANYONE APART FROM THEM. MySike just fucking backed up everything I've been saying with figures and your still arguing? No joke. put all of your money in PETA. All of it. Sell your house, your kids, whatever. If you can't see what's clearly infront of you then that's your problem.
What do you mean by "It's not profitable"? It doesn't return the full price of a share in one year dividends?
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MrSike
Member
Offline
Activity: 63
Merit: 10
I do not support any of these 3 coins in my avatar
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May 19, 2014, 04:04:58 AM |
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As requested here is 52 week projection. After a year the dividends are 4141 BTC which is ~ .041 BTC per shareholder given the best case scenario. But again this should be far off of what is expected since as the time frame grows larger the accuracy falls. The reinvestment becomes worthless towards the end of the year so the plan will have to change even if you are one of those long term investors that think the mine can last forever.
@webbrowser I will be glad to have the hosting fee remain constant or even go up, that would be even worse for shareholders. You do realize by the hosting fee going down that is more BTC for reinvestment and dividends so if you want me to I can redo this with higher hosting fees so that's even less dividend and reinvestment funds. So if you want me to make this change you will see an even worse outcome.
Don't get tied up on the hosting fee guys because anything more realistic for hosting fees will result in a worse outcome for the mine and shareholders.
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 41.287 -80.526 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 54.287 -134.813 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 59.133 -193.946 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 72.858 -266.805 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 76.062 -342.867 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 78.503 -421.370 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 91.372 -512.742 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 91.002 -603.744 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 103.488 -707.233 23345478492 167115.994 2880.427 434.350 108.587 325.762 224.776 100.986 -808.219 23345478492 167115.994 3010.656 453.987 113.497 340.490 227.788 112.702 -920.921 26847300266 192183.394 3125.628 409.847 102.462 307.385 199.186 108.200 -1029.121 26847300266 192183.394 3242.141 425.125 106.281 318.844 199.915 118.929 -1148.050 30874395306 221010.903 3344.024 381.291 95.323 285.968 173.297 112.671 -1260.721 30874395306 221010.903 3446.280 392.950 98.238 294.713 172.407 122.306 -1383.027 35505554602 254162.538 3534.921 350.484 87.621 262.863 148.255 114.608 -1497.635 35505554602 254162.538 3623.106 359.228 89.807 269.421 146.296 123.125 -1620.761 40831387792 292286.919 3698.938 318.910 79.728 239.183 124.853 114.329 -1735.090 40831387792 292286.919 3773.768 325.362 81.340 244.021 122.255 121.767 -1856.856 46956095961 336129.956 3837.630 287.711 71.928 215.783 103.576 112.207 -1969.064 46956095961 336129.956 3900.163 292.399 73.100 219.299 100.658 118.641 -2087.705 53999510355 386549.450 3953.142 257.714 64.428 193.285 84.659 108.626 -2196.331 53999510355 386549.450 4004.628 261.070 65.268 195.803 81.650 114.153 -2310.484 62099436909 444531.867 4047.931 229.473 57.368 172.104 68.153 103.951 -2414.435 62099436909 444531.867 4089.695 231.840 57.960 173.880 65.205 108.675 -2523.110 71414352445 511211.647 4124.555 203.319 50.830 152.489 53.981 98.508 -2621.618 71414352445 511211.647 4157.907 204.963 51.241 153.722 51.189 102.533 -2724.151 82126505312 587893.395 4185.519 179.412 44.853 134.559 41.982 92.577 -2816.727 82126505312 587893.395 4211.702 180.534 45.134 135.401 39.402 95.999 -2912.726 94445481109 676077.404 4233.176 157.787 39.447 118.340 31.952 86.388 -2999.114 94445481109 676077.404 4253.329 158.538 39.634 118.903 29.607 89.296 -3088.411 108612303275 777489.014 4269.673 138.389 34.597 103.792 23.664 80.127 -3168.538 108612303275 777489.014 4284.817 138.880 34.720 104.160 22.707 81.453 -3249.991 124904148766 894112.367 4296.921 121.106 30.277 90.830 18.893 71.937 -3321.928 124904148766 894112.367 4308.535 121.433 30.358 91.075 18.033 73.042 -3394.970 143639771081 1028229.222 4318.199 105.831 26.458 79.373 14.922 64.451 -3459.421 143639771081 1028229.222 4327.423 106.057 26.514 79.543 14.159 65.384 -3524.805 165185736743 1182463.605 4335.055 92.386 23.097 69.290 11.641 57.649 -3582.454 165185736743 1182463.605 4342.297 92.541 23.135 69.405 10.966 58.439 -3640.894 189963597254 1359833.145 4348.251 80.580 20.145 60.435 8.944 51.491 -3692.385 189963597254 1359833.145 4353.861 80.684 20.171 60.513 8.351 52.162 -3744.547 218458136843 1563808.117 4358.436 70.234 17.559 52.676 6.742 45.933 -3790.480 218458136843 1563808.117 4362.707 70.303 17.576 52.727 6.222 46.505 -3836.986 251226857369 1798379.335 4366.156 61.181 15.295 45.886 4.956 40.930 -3877.916 251226857369 1798379.335 4369.338 61.226 15.306 45.919 4.500 41.419 -3919.335 288910885974 2068136.235 4371.873 53.271 13.318 39.953 3.516 36.437 -3955.772 288910885974 2068136.235 4374.175 53.299 13.325 39.974 3.118 36.856 -3992.629 332247518871 2378356.670 4375.973 46.366 11.591 34.774 2.365 32.410 -4025.038 332247518871 2378356.670 4377.568 46.383 11.596 34.787 2.018 32.769 -4057.808 382084646701 2735110.171 4378.778 40.344 10.086 30.258 1.452 28.806 -4086.613 382084646701 2735110.171 4379.810 40.353 10.088 30.265 1.150 29.115 -4115.728 439397343706 3145376.697 4380.553 35.096 8.774 26.322 0.737 25.585 -4141.313
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BTC: 1167XUNMF95xpRvQphKnKXPiJmP16cgTpm MRO: 49BqijXcCU4MGfp2PGpqETNnX4yjrx9ZNj8TiKUj2N1kAZmY3A5cmHfiDGHnnTDiwbfmE7MZYDrSATz 2AN1JQvtWGVm6MJ6
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pedrog
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2786
Merit: 1031
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May 19, 2014, 04:07:54 AM |
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Good luck dude. I can take a thirsty person to water but if you don't want to drink it that's your problem. I ignore your points because they have been answered before by other people yet you are continuously recycling the same shit over and over again. If you honestly think difficulty is going to slowdown over the next six months then your crazy, or you have no idea what your talking about. Whichever whatever.
Actually, I think difficulty is going to increase at a bigger rate in coming year, AM is going to unleash hundreds of PH/s, it would be nice if CryptX secured a deal for a few of those...
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pedrog
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2786
Merit: 1031
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May 19, 2014, 04:13:27 AM |
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JESUS CHRIST HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY IT. THIS ISN'T PROFITABLE FOR ANYONE APART FROM THEM. MySike just fucking backed up everything I've been saying with figures and your still arguing? No joke. put all of your money in PETA. All of it. Sell your house, your kids, whatever. If you can't see what's clearly infront of you then that's your problem.
What do you mean by "It's not profitable"? It doesn't return the full price of a share in one year dividends? No it doesn't lol This is what I've been trying to say. Shareholders won't even see a forty percent return over the year if they are lucky, and looking at the current satisfactory yield, that would drop the share price to about 0.03-0.04. This IPO is going to pay them serious amounts of money while everyone else is going to be left bag holding. Oh, I see, that's just how this type of securities work... Hey, don't ever buy any stock, none of those return after one year, if you buy Apple you need to wait a few decades before you got your principal back.
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Anonymousg64
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May 19, 2014, 04:16:23 AM |
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As requested here is 52 week projection. After a year the dividends are 4141 BTC which is ~ .041 BTC per shareholder given the best case scenario. But again this should be far off of what is expected since as the time frame grows larger the accuracy falls. The reinvestment becomes worthless towards the end of the year so the plan will have to change even if you are one of those long term investors that think the mine can last forever.
@webbrowser I will be glad to have the hosting fee remain constant or even go up, that would be even worse for shareholders. You do realize by the hosting fee going down that is more BTC for reinvestment and dividends so if you want me to I can redo this with higher hosting fees so that's even less dividend and reinvestment funds. So if you want me to make this change you will see an even worse outcome.
Don't get tied up on the hosting fee guys because anything more realistic for hosting fees will result in a worse outcome for the mine and shareholders.
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 41.287 -80.526 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 54.287 -134.813 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 59.133 -193.946 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 72.858 -266.805 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 76.062 -342.867 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 78.503 -421.370 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 91.372 -512.742 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 91.002 -603.744 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 103.488 -707.233 23345478492 167115.994 2880.427 434.350 108.587 325.762 224.776 100.986 -808.219 23345478492 167115.994 3010.656 453.987 113.497 340.490 227.788 112.702 -920.921 26847300266 192183.394 3125.628 409.847 102.462 307.385 199.186 108.200 -1029.121 26847300266 192183.394 3242.141 425.125 106.281 318.844 199.915 118.929 -1148.050 30874395306 221010.903 3344.024 381.291 95.323 285.968 173.297 112.671 -1260.721 30874395306 221010.903 3446.280 392.950 98.238 294.713 172.407 122.306 -1383.027 35505554602 254162.538 3534.921 350.484 87.621 262.863 148.255 114.608 -1497.635 35505554602 254162.538 3623.106 359.228 89.807 269.421 146.296 123.125 -1620.761 40831387792 292286.919 3698.938 318.910 79.728 239.183 124.853 114.329 -1735.090 40831387792 292286.919 3773.768 325.362 81.340 244.021 122.255 121.767 -1856.856 46956095961 336129.956 3837.630 287.711 71.928 215.783 103.576 112.207 -1969.064 46956095961 336129.956 3900.163 292.399 73.100 219.299 100.658 118.641 -2087.705 53999510355 386549.450 3953.142 257.714 64.428 193.285 84.659 108.626 -2196.331 53999510355 386549.450 4004.628 261.070 65.268 195.803 81.650 114.153 -2310.484 62099436909 444531.867 4047.931 229.473 57.368 172.104 68.153 103.951 -2414.435 62099436909 444531.867 4089.695 231.840 57.960 173.880 65.205 108.675 -2523.110 71414352445 511211.647 4124.555 203.319 50.830 152.489 53.981 98.508 -2621.618 71414352445 511211.647 4157.907 204.963 51.241 153.722 51.189 102.533 -2724.151 82126505312 587893.395 4185.519 179.412 44.853 134.559 41.982 92.577 -2816.727 82126505312 587893.395 4211.702 180.534 45.134 135.401 39.402 95.999 -2912.726 94445481109 676077.404 4233.176 157.787 39.447 118.340 31.952 86.388 -2999.114 94445481109 676077.404 4253.329 158.538 39.634 118.903 29.607 89.296 -3088.411 108612303275 777489.014 4269.673 138.389 34.597 103.792 23.664 80.127 -3168.538 108612303275 777489.014 4284.817 138.880 34.720 104.160 22.707 81.453 -3249.991 124904148766 894112.367 4296.921 121.106 30.277 90.830 18.893 71.937 -3321.928 124904148766 894112.367 4308.535 121.433 30.358 91.075 18.033 73.042 -3394.970 143639771081 1028229.222 4318.199 105.831 26.458 79.373 14.922 64.451 -3459.421 143639771081 1028229.222 4327.423 106.057 26.514 79.543 14.159 65.384 -3524.805 165185736743 1182463.605 4335.055 92.386 23.097 69.290 11.641 57.649 -3582.454 165185736743 1182463.605 4342.297 92.541 23.135 69.405 10.966 58.439 -3640.894 189963597254 1359833.145 4348.251 80.580 20.145 60.435 8.944 51.491 -3692.385 189963597254 1359833.145 4353.861 80.684 20.171 60.513 8.351 52.162 -3744.547 218458136843 1563808.117 4358.436 70.234 17.559 52.676 6.742 45.933 -3790.480 218458136843 1563808.117 4362.707 70.303 17.576 52.727 6.222 46.505 -3836.986 251226857369 1798379.335 4366.156 61.181 15.295 45.886 4.956 40.930 -3877.916 251226857369 1798379.335 4369.338 61.226 15.306 45.919 4.500 41.419 -3919.335 288910885974 2068136.235 4371.873 53.271 13.318 39.953 3.516 36.437 -3955.772 288910885974 2068136.235 4374.175 53.299 13.325 39.974 3.118 36.856 -3992.629 332247518871 2378356.670 4375.973 46.366 11.591 34.774 2.365 32.410 -4025.038 332247518871 2378356.670 4377.568 46.383 11.596 34.787 2.018 32.769 -4057.808 382084646701 2735110.171 4378.778 40.344 10.086 30.258 1.452 28.806 -4086.613 382084646701 2735110.171 4379.810 40.353 10.088 30.265 1.150 29.115 -4115.728 439397343706 3145376.697 4380.553 35.096 8.774 26.322 0.737 25.585 -4141.313
And dude, here's where it gets scary. There is still one major mistake you have made. Hosting fee is a fixed cost per machine, it will stay roughly the same throughout the year, getting higher and higher as more money is pumped into reinvestment. You can see the estimated hosting fee in the projections that where posted by CryptX. If you want to account for that go ahead, that's the killer. I'm guessing a yield over the year of 20% once you account for that and the project not even lasting six months this is totally inaccurate, also hosting fees are priced in fiat and set to drop in the future im quite sure they can achieve a hasrate doubling rate of less then 3 months
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pedrog
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2786
Merit: 1031
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May 19, 2014, 04:18:37 AM |
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JESUS CHRIST HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY IT. THIS ISN'T PROFITABLE FOR ANYONE APART FROM THEM. MySike just fucking backed up everything I've been saying with figures and your still arguing? No joke. put all of your money in PETA. All of it. Sell your house, your kids, whatever. If you can't see what's clearly infront of you then that's your problem.
What do you mean by "It's not profitable"? It doesn't return the full price of a share in one year dividends? No it doesn't lol This is what I've been trying to say. Shareholders won't even see a forty percent return over the year if they are lucky, and looking at the current satisfactory yield, that would drop the share price to about 0.03-0.04. This IPO is going to pay them serious amounts of money while everyone else is going to be left bag holding. Oh, I see, that's just how this type of securities work... Hey, don't ever buy any stock, none of those return after one year, if you buy Apple you need to wait a few decades before you got your principal back. Yea but the point is all those companies will still be around in ten years, this won't even last nine months. So all the money you invest in the shares itself are going to whittle down to 0 over the corse of less than a year, apart from when CryptX sells the machines on as doorstops. Well, that's the risk with any start up... So, you think the reinvestment percentage should be higher?
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Anonymousg64
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May 19, 2014, 04:34:51 AM |
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i can defend them because i know they are doing the right thing according to your logic no cloud mining operation in existence will exist beyond the next 6 months
i can also make a highly inaccurate projection if you want
to bring up the accuracy i would need to take year over year trends, altho not enough years have gone by yet to get any good reading out of even that
in regards to my situation, satoshidice 163 bitcoins 2012
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jimmothy
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May 19, 2014, 04:38:56 AM |
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I think there is a lot of confusion going on about the latest developments. Let me try to elaborate on this. First we want to clear some misunderstandings:“You bought 14,500 units and now you sell them at a higher price in the IPO to make a profit for yourself”.The money that is raised at the IPO will go to the purchase of 1000 TH/s of mining equipment, which costs about 3,760 BTC. Financial breakdown to deploy 1PH/s: * 33,794 shares at IPO: 3,313 BTC * Current reinvestment funds: 150 BTC * Mining revenue (16-31 May): 300 BTC “do you think you could tell us what that 1000BTC will be spent on cryptx? Shares or what?”We will pre-finance the 1000 BTC to be able to purchase up to 1000 TH/s after the IPO. This means it is a loan from us to the PetaMine. The more shares are sold in the IPO, the less has to be pre-financed and paid back in dividends. “Why are dividends withheld for a few weeks?”This is a joint effort of current investors, new investors and CryptX. Investing in new hardware now will have a much better impact in the long run on both unit value and dividends. “But they are misleading people so they can maximize their own profits. The first few months will be the most profitable, but instead of pumping out dividends then are going to use it to reinvest so they can have more machines, which makes them more money. “We can tell all of you that we have already invested over 1,000,000$ of our own private money into this project. This money has been spent on: • Datacenter: Electric installation, cooling, infrastructure, alarms, network, etc • Shipping costs: We have paid all the express shipping from US (Cointerra), from Switzerland (Bitmine), from China (Dragon miners, custom miners). • PSU: we have bought about 200 psu’s so the Coincraft desk could be delivered faster. • Custom miners: Apart from the chips, we have paid the full production of 250 miners. • Custom designs • Labor costs • Etc We have a margin on hosting costs, so it is in our interest that PetaMine grows. We have cut hosting from 0.45$/kwh to 0.25$/kwh because we believe in the project for the long term and want it to have every chance to succeed. Old situation:We were hashing at about 500 TH/s with 80,760 units. What would have happened if we did not make some drastic changes? First we would pay the last part of the Bitmine contract and we would be in the same situation like before. We would have to wait on the RIG’s to be delivered. In best case, all RIG’s would be deployed in a couple of weeks and we would hash at 700 TH/s with 80,760 units outstanding. This would have meant 8.67 GH/share. Second every week the dividend payments would have gone down and the hosting fees would have gone up. The overall result would have been that the PetaMine would produce less and less dividend until costs became higher than revenue. The consequences would have been a dropping unit price and a dropping dividend. New situation:
We have cut the hosting fee from 0.45$/kwh to 0.25$/kwh. In other words we gave up a large portion of our income to the PetaMine project. We could have left it at 0.45$ and receive a lot more hosting for the coming months. Instead we want the project to thrive and become one of the larger players in the Bitcoin mining place. We bought back about 14,500 shares with the money we otherwise had to spend on Bitmine for our second part of the contract. We did this because we are convinced that we could use these shares to take the PetaMine to another level. What will be the overall result?Plain and simple, if the IPO is successful PetaMine will be much larger and the unit holders will be owner of 15 GH/s per share instead of 8.68 GH/s per share. On top of this the costs of the mine are almost halved. We are convinced that we all have to look at this project with our long term glasses on. Big dividends in the short run will result in a dead project in the long run. PetaMine cannot simultaneously grow exponentially and pay large dividends at the same time. We want to become and stay one of the large players in Bitcoin mining. Wait so PETA has been charging $0.45/kwh and investors are not outraged by this? $0.25/kwh is approaching reasonable costs yet still incredibly overpriced. How will peta compete with operations like megabigpower at less than $0.05/kwh? Also how has PETA invested "over $1,000,000" of their own money in to this project? And where is the extra 1,000 btc loan coming from? Has this ~3,000btc been taken out of dividends or is this just a massive expense that will be ignored until bankruptcy? Looks like PETA confirmed they bought the 14k shares to sell in a new IPO at twice the price they are worth for an easy profit. So in the end PETA is just a scheme to build as big of a farm as possible while charging outrageous hosting fees payed to themselves of course. As difficulty increases exponentially investors profits will dry up. But PETA will be happily sucking in money at a fixed rate of $0.25/kwh. Has PETA considered offering a stock to give investors the chance to get in on this huge profit PETA will be sucking out of PETAMINE? At 2MW PETA will be charging PETAMINE $84,000/week while increasing with every PETAMINE reinvestment and PETAMINE will earn 10% of $220,000 (decreasing with every difficulty increase (also assuming they start mining during next difficulty)).
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MrSike
Member
Offline
Activity: 63
Merit: 10
I do not support any of these 3 coins in my avatar
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May 19, 2014, 04:53:43 AM |
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i can defend them because i know they are doing the right thing according to your logic no cloud mining operation in existence will exist beyond the next 3 months
i can also make a highly inaccurate projection if you want
to bring up the accuracy i would need to take year over year trends, altho not enough years have gone by yet to get any good reading out of even that
in regards to my situation, satoshidice 163 bitcoins 2012
Cloud mining companies pay out dividends straight away, when the net asset value of the capital is at its highest, producing a much better ROI, they are doing the complete opposite here. Ok. Look, dude I'm sorry. But please understand, I had a career looking at things like this. The strategy they have selected is solely to increase their own earnings, not shareholders. You really think I'd be going apeshit mental if they wern't trying to do something extremely sinister? If they paid out dividends at a 35/65 ratio again all investors would see a good return, but instead, they are trying to build the mine up as big as possible even though difficulty is going to make it much less profitable. Why? increased hosting fees. you dont understand that 35/65 would be bad for long term investors, what they are doing now will benefit all investors companies that pay out dividends straight away may be good for initial investors but completely doom the project and screw over later investors Run the numbers yourself, look into the cost of running these miners, what is being charged, how difficulty rises compared to how much reinvestment will cover. An engineer like yourself should know how to do this. Don't put blind faith into a company because they say they are doing what is best for the investors. Numbers speak more than words. Or ignore everything discussed here if your goal is to make money for others. If you do run the numbers post them here so we can all see why this is such a great investment for long term holders like you say.
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BTC: 1167XUNMF95xpRvQphKnKXPiJmP16cgTpm MRO: 49BqijXcCU4MGfp2PGpqETNnX4yjrx9ZNj8TiKUj2N1kAZmY3A5cmHfiDGHnnTDiwbfmE7MZYDrSATz 2AN1JQvtWGVm6MJ6
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Anonymousg64
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May 19, 2014, 05:02:00 AM |
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i can defend them because i know they are doing the right thing according to your logic no cloud mining operation in existence will exist beyond the next 3 months
i can also make a highly inaccurate projection if you want
to bring up the accuracy i would need to take year over year trends, altho not enough years have gone by yet to get any good reading out of even that
in regards to my situation, satoshidice 163 bitcoins 2012
Cloud mining companies pay out dividends straight away, when the net asset value of the capital is at its highest, producing a much better ROI, they are doing the complete opposite here. Ok. Look, dude I'm sorry. But please understand, I had a career looking at things like this. The strategy they have selected is solely to increase their own earnings, not shareholders. You really think I'd be going apeshit mental if they wern't trying to do something extremely sinister? If they paid out dividends at a 35/65 ratio again all investors would see a good return, but instead, they are trying to build the mine up as big as possible even though difficulty is going to make it much less profitable. Why? increased hosting fees. you dont understand that 35/65 would be bad for long term investors, what they are doing now will benefit all investors companies that pay out dividends straight away may be good for initial investors but completely doom the project and screw over later investors Run the numbers yourself, look into the cost of running these miners, what is being charged, how difficulty rises compared to how much reinvestment will cover. An engineer like yourself should know how to do this. Don't put blind faith into a company because they say they are doing what is best for the investors. Numbers speak more than words. Or ignore everything discussed here if your goal is to make money for others. If you do run the numbers post them here so we can all see why this is such a great investment for long term holders like you say. i have run the numbers myself, from the data you posted, look up a few posts, but it seems i cannot make it clear enough that multifactor exponential projections are impossible to make with any degree of acuracy there are too many possible outcomes i know the costs, PETA offers allot of benefits compared to investing in my own hardware and strategy
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jimmothy
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May 19, 2014, 05:09:50 AM |
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PETA is meant to be a mining operation that continues to function indefinitely
How can petamine function indefinitely when they are charging themselves $0.25/kwh vs the competition at less than $0.05/kwh?
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