Thirdspace


January 03, 2018, 12:36:38 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC That was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC that's why sometimes (if not most of the time) you should do alternate hilo bets alternate bets work well on multiply btc freebitco.in, just need to stay alert when the pattern against it sometimes you will get long streak of mids roll numbers between 48005200 which is black hole




xYakult


January 03, 2018, 02:02:33 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC That was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC Thats actually not impossible, it is more likely will happen since it is only a streak of 15 specially in a dice game with 5% house edge. Imagine sites with only 1% house edge, giving you 49.5% win chance on 2x multiplier and there are players that got 20+ losing streak




Chris314


January 03, 2018, 02:41:13 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC That was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC that's why sometimes (if not most of the time) you should do alternate hilo bets alternate bets work well on multiply btc freebitco.in, just need to stay alert when the pattern against it sometimes you will get long streak of mids roll numbers between 48005200 which is black hole That won't work more, you can have long loss streaks with alternate as well. In any martingale strategy, or in any strategy btw, whatever the winning odd, the probability to lose n times in a row is never equal to zero. It may be very small, but if you play for a long time, the risk to play this particular losing streak is greater.




Don Pedro Dinero
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January 03, 2018, 04:02:47 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC That was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC that's why sometimes (if not most of the time) you should do alternate hilo bets alternate bets work well on multiply btc freebitco.in, just need to stay alert when the pattern against it sometimes you will get long streak of mids roll numbers between 48005200 which is black hole That won't work more, you can have long loss streaks with alternate as well. In any martingale strategy, or in any strategy btw, whatever the winning odd, the probability to lose n times in a row is never equal to zero. It may be very small, but if you play for a long time, the risk to play this particular losing streak is greater. Yes, that’s been discussed many times on this thread and on the gambling section in general, but it doesn’t matter, even with all the info out there people keep thinking that they can beat the system. They think of patterns instead of individual mathematical events and keep betting according to that, until they bump into reality. This why casinos will be profitable for ever, because no matter the info available, people will keep thinking like that.




Thirdspace


January 03, 2018, 10:47:26 PM 

They think of patterns instead of individual mathematical events and keep betting according to that, until they bump into reality.
I read it once, in a human's perceived random event there is a (notsoobvious) pattern I forgot what this phenomenon is called but the pattern is sophisticate mathematically so complicated and are long sequence pattern that human would never think it is a pattern at all something like hidden patterns, like what happens in movie Final Destination and its sequels




grillonic
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January 04, 2018, 12:20:34 AM 

The first and only BTC faucet I've ever used
12xFb14mKEdNkLBktJapL2EYecqoyEnXvW




MinerHQ
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January 04, 2018, 01:37:11 AM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC That was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC There are people who even face more than 30 continuous losses in a row. That is the speciality of this dice or holow game because you can't predict the results and you feel that you got cheated but when you verify all bets then you will come to know that you're not cheated but it is game of luck. You should always fix some amount which you can afford to lose in this game to avoid big losses. Final advice, don't again go after those losses recover back from this game again. Next time if want play with so much money then better choose a site which has got less house edge.




hroub
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January 04, 2018, 04:30:50 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC That was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC that's why sometimes (if not most of the time) you should do alternate hilo bets alternate bets work well on multiply btc freebitco.in, just need to stay alert when the pattern against it sometimes you will get long streak of mids roll numbers between 48005200 which is black hole That won't work more, you can have long loss streaks with alternate as well. In any martingale strategy, or in any strategy btw, whatever the winning odd, the probability to lose n times in a row is never equal to zero. It may be very small, but if you play for a long time, the risk to play this particular losing streak is greater. I was playing using what I learned in Probability courses with the classic cointoss example. I think what happened to me is normal as either I have played more than 32k rolls, or the rolls are independent like you ans @Chris314 say. I assumed they are not independent though as my client seed remained the same it is a provably fair game. I thought and still do that the probablilities for this game work the same as they do on coin tosses... i.e. the probablility of getting 15 heads in a row is 0.5^15 and the probability of getting 15 highs with 2x is 0.475^15. Am I wrong is there anyway to convince me otherwise? Thanks




hroub
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January 04, 2018, 05:04:59 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC That was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC There are people who even face more than 30 continuous losses in a row. That is the speciality of this dice or holow game because you can't predict the results and you feel that you got cheated but when you verify all bets then you will come to know that you're not cheated but it is game of luck. You should always fix some amount which you can afford to lose in this game to avoid big losses. Final advice, don't again go after those losses recover back from this game again. Next time if want play with so much money then better choose a site which has got less house edge. Thanks for the advice. I previously tried to do that back when I was experimenting with it and lost 0.8 BTC when BTC used to be much cheaper. This time, using martigale (only after getting 3 losses in a row) I thought I knew what I was doing, but I am starting to realise that as long as there is a house edge, there is no way someone could systematically win unless he's just brave and lucky at the same time. I just looked at my stats and see I have made 41,094 rolls. Even if I kept an eye on that and kept decreasing the starting bid, it would have made much less worthy of playing. in the screenshot above my profit was like 0.0001 BTC per (stressful streak) which was around $1.45... If I wanted to have a threshold for a 21 streak I would have had to have a starting bid of 0.00000186 BTC (around $0.03) per streak... not very worthwhile... Maybe if I had like 100 BTC available, I would play with a 25 streak to relatively safe and actually make some profit... With 100 BTC, I would make 0.00002384 BTC per streak, but then again the game wont allow betting more than 20 BTC So I believe the only way to make some money with this game would be to own 40 BTC, use a 25 streak, start after 3rd loss with a starting bid of 0.00000476 BTC and use some bot or script to do the betting (don't use the auto because at 2x multiplier the chance of getting 4 hi (or low) in a row is much lower than getting 1 or 2... But... then again, the probability of getting 25 losses (hi or lo) in a row would be in 0.475^25 which is 1 in 120,965,008, and with a bot/script you would reach that rather soon, and because of the house edge, you would still end up losing more than you started with... Has anyone really made any good winnings with Multiply BTC? Can anyone demonstrate a decent positive Multiply BTC amount? Mine is almost 1 BTC Thanks.




Chris314


January 04, 2018, 06:26:44 PM 

Thanks for the advice. I previously tried to do that back when I was experimenting with it and lost 0.8 BTC when BTC used to be much cheaper. This time, using martigale (only after getting 3 losses in a row) I thought I knew what I was doing, but I am starting to realise that as long as there is a house edge, there is no way someone could systematically win unless he's just brave and lucky at the same time.
When I was gambling I made an excel sheet that calculates how much I can win and lose with a martingale strategy. Inputs are initial bet I, odds O and % of bet increase in case of a loss P. O variable determines chances of a win/loss, for example with O=2 at freebitco.in win probability is 0,475 and loss probability is 0,525. With a smaller house edge, win probability is higher, but still strictly smaller than 0,5. I tried many combinations of I, O and P to see the most profitable. And conclusion of all this is that whatever the choices of I, O and P, if winning probability is strictly smaller than 0,5 (for O=2), i.e.if there's an house edge, then you're guaranteed to lose money in the long term, because every winnings at turn n and smaller won't cover the money lost at n+1 losing turn.




TheQuin


January 05, 2018, 07:30:54 AM 

i.e.if there's an house edge, then you're guaranteed to lose money in the long term, because every winnings at turn n and smaller won't cover the money lost at n+1 losing turn.
You hit the nail on the head there. It's gambling and you have a chance of getting lucky and winning but the overall expectation is that if you play long enough the house will come out on top. If it was possible to devise a system or strategy that was guaranteed to win then gambling sites would not be able to exist. They set minimum and maximum bets for this reason so that a martingale will give the house a good chance that the customer will bust. Bricks and mortar casinos do the same thing with table limits. I was playing using what I learned in Probability courses with the classic cointoss example. I think what happened to me is normal as either I have played more than 32k rolls, or the rolls are independent like you ans @Chris314 say. I assumed they are not independent though as my client seed remained the same it is a provably fair game. I thought and still do that the probablilities for this game work the same as they do on coin tosses... i.e. the probablility of getting 15 heads in a row is 0.5^15 and the probability of getting 15 highs with 2x is 0.475^15. Am I wrong is there anyway to convince me otherwise? Thanks
To calculate the probability of a losing streak you MUST also factor in the sample size. Using this example the probability of a loss on a single roll is 0.525 and given a sample of 32,000 bets the probability of a streak of 15 losses is 61.8% The maths is a bit complicated: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56b6357e01dbaea0266fe701/t/56c432b52b8dde24de99e2d1/1455698614190/Erik_Leffler.pdfBut it is easy to use an online calculator like this one: http://completecurrencytrader.com/streakprobabilitycalculator.html#book_wrap




Don Pedro Dinero
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January 05, 2018, 08:31:22 AM 

I was playing using what I learned in Probability courses with the classic cointoss example. I think what happened to me is normal as either I have played more than 32k rolls, or the rolls are independent like you ans @Chris314 say. I assumed they are not independent though as my client seed remained the same it is a provably fair game. I thought and still do that the probablilities for this game work the same as they do on coin tosses... i.e. the probablility of getting 15 heads in a row is 0.5^15 and the probability of getting 15 highs with 2x is 0.475^15. Am I wrong is there anyway to convince me otherwise? Thanks
The fundamental flaw of your argument is that you never bet on streaks. Even if you autobet for 15 highs (or lows), you bet on individual events, not on streaks. You are betting on the first number being high, on the second number being high, and so on. You are not betting on a streak of 15 to have at least one high number. Your client seed and provably fair don’t matter. They just make sure the system is not rigged.




TheQuin


January 05, 2018, 08:36:12 AM 

that you never bet on streaks.
Actually, you can do that. It's best with an antimartingale. I quite like betting on 2x for 4 wins in a row which has a decent chance. After each win double the bet, go back to base bet on lose. You're effectively betting on how quickly that four streak occurs.




Warfare


January 07, 2018, 05:08:48 PM 

LOTTERY ROUND 136 This round, the winner with the lowest number of tickets is #4 with 190 tickets. #1 won 0.83119850 BTC with 2,054 tickets.




marlboroza
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January 07, 2018, 05:32:21 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC https://i.imgur.com/F9Su6Is.pngThat was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC Your math sucks I can probably School u in math any day. I am really sorry for your lost, but that is how martingale works! There is only one result, just don't use it if you care about your money. Winning dice strategy doesn't exist, if there was one someone would have closed all casinos already. Don't ignore gambling facts please.




babygun


January 07, 2018, 06:29:50 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC https://i.imgur.com/F9Su6Is.pngThat was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC Your math sucks I can probably School u in math any day. I am really sorry for your lost, but that is how martingale works! There is only one result, just don't use it if you care about your money. Winning dice strategy doesn't exist, if there was one someone would have closed all casinos already. Don't ignore gambling facts please. We can only hope that everyone who claims that Martingale works, reads these posts and than think twice before they will use it. Sorry for your loss!




milewilda
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January 07, 2018, 07:53:35 PM 

Ouch! I can't believe I just hit 15 Highs in a row on 2.0 Multiplier (47.5% win chance). I just lost almost 0.5 BTC https://i.imgur.com/F9Su6Is.pngThat was like a 0.003% chance of happening, that's about 1 in 32,768 rolls. I guess it happened. Goodbye Multiply BTC Your math sucks I can probably School u in math any day. I am really sorry for your lost, but that is how martingale works! There is only one result, just don't use it if you care about your money. Winning dice strategy doesn't exist, if there was one someone would have closed all casinos already. Don't ignore gambling facts please. We can only hope that everyone who claims that Martingale works, reads these posts and than think twice before they will use it. Sorry for your loss! Too late for now since you cant get those lost bitcoin back into your wallet which is somehow expected on playing gambling specially on hilo or dice games wherever you play odds and chances would be the same. Martingale is a common strategy even no matter how big the odd is but the risk of hitting losing streak is always there. 0.5 loss would really give you some serious lesson on here. Hope it would be an eyeopener for you.




MinerHQ
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January 08, 2018, 03:31:31 AM 

So I believe the only way to make some money with this game would be to own 40 BTC, use a 25 streak, start after 3rd loss with a starting bid of 0.00000476 BTC and use some bot or script to do the betting (don't use the auto because at 2x multiplier the chance of getting 4 hi (or low) in a row is much lower than getting 1 or 2... But... then again, the probability of getting 25 losses (hi or lo) in a row would be in 0.475^25 which is 1 in 120,965,008, and with a bot/script you would reach that rather soon, and because of the house edge, you would still end up losing more than you started with... Has anyone really made any good winnings with Multiply BTC? Can anyone demonstrate a decent positive Multiply BTC amount? Mine is almost 1 BTC Thanks. No one can make a money with this multiple games in the long run because if that is true then this site would be been closed long back. You check this thread somewhere admin mentioned that their main profit is from this hilow game to give so many faucet users. That means they are very sure that as long as people play this game they can make money. If you think with cool mind then you will understand and I already told you don't try to chase your losses in gambling.




Juggy777


January 08, 2018, 09:30:01 AM 

So I believe the only way to make some money with this game would be to own 40 BTC, use a 25 streak, start after 3rd loss with a starting bid of 0.00000476 BTC and use some bot or script to do the betting (don't use the auto because at 2x multiplier the chance of getting 4 hi (or low) in a row is much lower than getting 1 or 2... But... then again, the probability of getting 25 losses (hi or lo) in a row would be in 0.475^25 which is 1 in 120,965,008, and with a bot/script you would reach that rather soon, and because of the house edge, you would still end up losing more than you started with... Has anyone really made any good winnings with Multiply BTC? Can anyone demonstrate a decent positive Multiply BTC amount? Mine is almost 1 BTC Thanks. No one can make a money with this multiple games in the long run because if that is true then this site would be been closed long back. You check this thread somewhere admin mentioned that their main profit is from this hilow game to give so many faucet users. That means they are very sure that as long as people play this game they can make money. If you think with cool mind then you will understand and I already told you don't try to chase your losses in gambling. I don't really think anyone would really want to do such a thing, do you know you'll have to pay a massive transfer fee, then the hi lo game is not one of the best way to blow up your 40 Bitcoins, I have tried lot of tricks and tricks that horribly failed and I played with faucet money, so no if you ask me that's a really bad idea to play with your coins you'll not make good money and I don't really think that this strategy will work at all.




Kprawn
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January 08, 2018, 03:48:59 PM 

I was playing using what I learned in Probability courses with the classic cointoss example. I think what happened to me is normal as either I have played more than 32k rolls, or the rolls are independent like you ans @Chris314 say. I assumed they are not independent though as my client seed remained the same it is a provably fair game. I thought and still do that the probablilities for this game work the same as they do on coin tosses... i.e. the probablility of getting 15 heads in a row is 0.5^15 and the probability of getting 15 highs with 2x is 0.475^15. Am I wrong is there anyway to convince me otherwise? Thanks
The fundamental flaw of your argument is that you never bet on streaks. Even if you autobet for 15 highs (or lows), you bet on individual events, not on streaks. You are betting on the first number being high, on the second number being high, and so on. You are not betting on a streak of 15 to have at least one high number. Your client seed and provably fair don’t matter. They just make sure the system is not rigged. You have it pretty spot on with that explanation. The only thing you left out is the very high house edge with this site, compared to other Crypto currency gambling sites. Freebitco.in should not be your first choice for gambling, based on the house edge. They have a high house edge, because they are cross funding their faucet payouts from the gambling profits. Most people are only gambling with their FREE coins that they receive from the faucet.




