Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend

[isov]

Could you add new data to the OP? Would be nice to see how it has been doing on this exponential trend line. Price on the trend line is now something like 650$/btc, right?

[1715008787]

1715008787

[1715008787]

1715008787

[1715008787]

1715008787

[1715008787]

1715008787

[rpietila]

I'm about to do a complete overhaul of this, I have an analyst working for me. The resolution will be daily, with trendline parameters also constantly updating. Please calculate the current trend using the following parameters, they are very close to correct:

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

Today Feb 11, we are at $668 in the trendline.

[Ed4252]

I'm about to do a complete overhaul of this, I have an analyst working for me. The resolution will be daily, with trendline parameters also constantly updating. Please calculate the current trend using the following parameters, they are very close to correct:

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

Today Feb 11, we are at $668 in the trendline.

Could you post an updated graph of this?

[rpietila]

No, I can not. So far others have done that part

[creekbore]

Another great thread Risto, congrats

[fluidjax]

I updated the logarithmic trend chart.
It looks to me like we have hit the line. (Bitstamp 600ish)

[rpietila]

Thank you

Next question is - what will happen next?

A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)

[creekbore]

Thank you

Next question is - what will happen next?

A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)

In a sane and rational world, a period of consolidation, improvement and contemplation.
But this is Bitcoin....

[nickenburg]

Thank you

Next question is - what will happen next?

A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)

I think if more bad new comes, it can maybe go under the trendline?
Or people see the bad news only let bitcoins suffer a little, and more people will invest in bitcoins?
I hope for the last but i know, people are still very sceptical vs bitcoin.
Im trying to get more friends in to it but they dont care about it yet.

[rpietila]

Btw. should I send the trendline points at the time of their calculation?

The current trend did not of course apply at any past time because they did not have all the data.

[CoolStoryBro]

please use log. base =2 for the graphs, it's almost impossible to differ values from 100 to 1000 on such scale.

see my example (with my own random assumptions for dec & jan since it's not published averages)
more lines  = better understanding

[Arriemoller]

Thank you

Next question is - what will happen next?

A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)

B) If it follows the pattern from earlier bumps it will stabilize and we will have a period of perhaps six months or so with little movement and then another giant bumb.

[tonico]

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

https://i.imgur.com/sPfQbIz.png
EDIT: update graph

[CoolStoryBro]

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

[tonico]

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?

[CoolStoryBro]

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?

cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300...
I mean it's not hard but it's not handy.

not user friendly

[chriswilmer]

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?

cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300...
I mean it's not hard but it's not handy.

not user friendly

I'm also a fan of base 2 log plots. I think it's the most practical for easily reading off precise amounts on a log plot.

[tonico]

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?

cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300...
I mean it's not hard but it's not handy.

not user friendly

I'm also a fan of base 2 log plots. I think it's the most practical for easily reading off precise amounts on a log plot.

I prefer the log10 grid. Anyways, here is the same version with a log2 grid: https://i.imgur.com/JeTTfUQ.png

[dnaleor]

Holy shit. That blows my mind - just the numbers involved and the speed with which it can happen - and it also shows how BTC has so many unique and unpredictable aspects vs. any "traditional" tech innovation/adoption/value cycle - even compared to another disruptive game-changer.  Shocked

The first time I saw the log chart my mind was also blown. I still like watching those charts

So far, the log trend is still active. Lets hope it will continue for at least a year:
10000 USD in march 2015

[Arriemoller]

I found this chart a while ago, don't remember where, but it is update daily. If you switch to the s-curve that will blow your mind even more.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1