We both have an interest in Bitcoin (my main hobby at the moment) and I offered a suggestion regarding precious metals based on years of experience.
well i do too since 2005. i asked you before and i'll ask again. when did you start?
would you care to bet 100 BTC or $1000 that the Dow will be lower one year from now than it is today?
Why? I already told you I'm not interested in a pissing contest. When I trade, it's generally for the long-haul and on my own terms. Being right and doing nothing until the market shifts can be extremely difficult, as it involves ignoring the noise.
its just a simple bet. i don't think equities can be propped up like you do and i do think they'll be lower one year from now. no insult intended.
If you're feeling threatened or intimidated, reply to some of the detailed comments I've made on a rational basis instead of making challenges and wild speculation. For instance, your first post for this thread included a good rationale and enumerated your reasoning. Let's get back to the economics of the matter before this gets moved to the speculation sub-thread.
heck no. i'm learning alot. no need to get personal.
i don't agree with your thesis.http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab9
there is only 2.8T worth of FRN's and required/excess reserves out there. compared to orders of magnitude more debt/virtual USD's. 60% of world debt is denom in USD's. sovereign debt has hit the wall. we are now getting defaults. this will decrease the total amt of USD's worldwide. on top of that, foreign denom debt is defaulting as well and they are reserved in USD's. this increases the demand for remaining USD's whether they desire them or not. these 2 factors should force the value of the USD up. the recent swap lines are evidence of this.
Paper vs. Physicalhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg444903#msg444903
After whatever temporary correction occurs, gold is going to continue higher to breach $2,000/oz. Obviously nothing goes in a straight line and there's going to be unbelievable resistance, but that doesn't change the long-term uptrend. I don't know how much farther it'll go beyond $2,000, but I assume that it'll be about double from the prior channel breakout of around $1,600-1,650. Meanwhile, I'll be glad to sell you Silver Wheaton when you've had enough red and decide to cover at a real high.
how can you be so sure? in fact i doubt gold will ever become the world reserve currency like it was in the past. its an artifact of the past. the last couple of decades has seen the advent of the Internet. i believe it has changed the world as a disruptive force. never before has the avg American been able to peer behind the curtain see what its gov't/Fed have been doing to rob all of us. the awareness of Americans is at an all time high. Bitcoin is an extension of this and in my opinion stands a better chance of eventually being the reserve currency. you're better off investing in an undervalued currency like Bitcoin than a parabolically moving hunk of metal near a top.
how do you buy a loaf of bread with gold? how do you transport it around the world to balance payments of countries? its weight alone is prohibitive for any practical use. you have to build forts to store it. how do you weigh it to buy a pencil? who cares that its been money for centuries; the Internet has only practically been around for 10 years. computers, servers, and cell phones dominate our lives. what did i used to do? oh yeah, go to the beach, take walks, talk to my wife. instead i'm here banging away.
Please provide an exact quote regarding the statement of foreigners being "less dependent" on dollars. I'd like to know where I wrote that; I believe my statement was that the world has shrinking desire to hold USD - nothing to do with dependency. If anything, the US is dependent upon the rest of the world to keep the game going.
as i said above, if they're dependent that all that matters. who cares if they don't desire them?
There is no definitive profit incentive with the established swap lines. They are necessary to facilitate liquidity and an attempt to reduce volatility in exchange rates occurring due to large capital flows from one region to another. If you see this differently, please elaborate.
in the case of TARP and most likely June 2011 they're meant to prevent insolvency; a much more serious situation. they keep the foreigners dependent on the USD and will sustain demand.
Whether you view the USD-based global economy as an inverted pyramid or bubbles on top of bubbles, either way failure above leads to increasing deflationary pressure further down. Think about the implications of a collapse - the US has the most to lose and would be severely crushed, hence the strong incentive to prop the entire world up. This is being done by monetizing debt without actual realization of the expected value, so the entire system will become incredibly fragile. I find it very improbable that a system of such magnitude will be able to hold together with a skeletal support racked by osteoporosis.
The consequence of monetization is inflation even as many tangible goods experience deflation. Be careful not to mistake velocity of US dollars for demand; volume (quantity) does not equal quality. Again, ensure that you understand the concept of bad money driving out good money.
i agree but i don't think the gov't/Fed can stop the implosion and deflation. i think they've come to this realization and are stepping away from the markets by no QE. as the collapse unfolds, the demand for cash/USD by everyday Americans will overwhelm the price of gold. debt defaults will accelerate shrinking the money supply. the scramble for cash has begun and the margin calls are going out.
All you're looking at is one year? Are you aware of seasonality? For the past few years, the start has been marked by a decline and slow rise to the middle of the year. During the latter half of the year, the precious metals tend to take off without looking back. Are you suggesting that the world's problems have gone away and that this pattern is irrelevant? I don't see how anything has changed - in fact, things seem to have gotten worse.
Since you're analyzing charts, it should be obvious that the high at the end of April was followed by tests of support around $32. After that, there was a higher low followed by a higher high. It could also be argued that the consolidation pattern is in a rising channel. I don't see any long-term trend lines to mark major support points, nor moving averages. Where is the 50-day moving average, or the 200-dma? MACD? Fibonacci levels? Negative divergences? Index ratios?
Are you taking into account anything behind the scenes? Capital flows? Warehouse supply levels? Cost of manufacturing or mining? Corporate hedging on future returns? Political environments, worker strikes and nationalization efforts? International demand outside of the US and Europe?
things have gotten worse. seasonal patterns don't always work out. you don't always have to have a parabolic blowoff to end every bull. look at the Dow. i stripped off the indicators you mentioned to make a specific point. yes i do use them.
you are good at the fundamentals. i used to rely on them much more than i do now b/c no one can know everything and sometimes things aren't as they appear. i've learned that the charts tell a much bigger part of the story IMO. i'm trying to identify a top to the longest bull market in existence today. no question it'll be tough going when everyone around me is onboard this train.
do you have any idea how ridiculous what you just said is?
Take ten deep breaths and go grab a beer.
since when is potentially losing 100BTC or $1000 not a consequence? i wasn't even talking to you.