We both have an interest in Bitcoin (my main hobby at the moment) and I offered a suggestion regarding precious metals based on years of experience. Your choice was to take it or leave it rather than start a public crusade from a private conversation. Hopefully at least some readers will benefit. Now for a long, consolidated reply...
would you care to bet 100 BTC or $1000 that the Dow will be lower one year from now than it is today?
Why? I already told you I'm not interested in a pissing contest. When I trade, it's generally for the long-haul and on my own terms. Being right and doing nothing until the market shifts can be extremely difficult, as it involves ignoring the noise.
If you're feeling threatened or intimidated, reply to some of the detailed comments I've made on a rational basis instead of making challenges and wild speculation. For instance, your first post for this thread included a good rationale and enumerated your reasoning. Let's get back to the economics of the matter before this gets moved to the speculation sub-thread.
No printing necessary for monetary inflationhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg443739#msg443739
Paper vs. Physicalhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg444903#msg444903
After whatever temporary correction occurs, gold is going to continue higher to breach $2,000/oz. Obviously nothing goes in a straight line and there's going to be unbelievable resistance, but that doesn't change the long-term uptrend. I don't know how much farther it'll go beyond $2,000, but I assume that it'll be about double from the prior channel breakout of around $1,600-1,650. Meanwhile, I'll be glad to sell you Silver Wheaton when you've had enough red and decide to cover at a real high.
you've said a coupla times that foreigners are much less dependent on the USD. explain this:http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-swap-lines-european-banks-2011-6
also explain why most of the TARP funds back in 2008 were extended to foreign banks, esp European to bailout their individual overleveraged banks.
i'll tell you why. the USD is and remains the reserve currency of the world upon which other foreign central banks leverage their own currencies. its like a reverse pyramid with the USD at the bottom and extending outward to foreign currencies. 60% of loans worldwide are denominated in USD's. when the shit hits the fan all these foreign banks need USD swap lines to cover the imploding
we are now entering phase 2 of the crisis and you're going to see demand for USD increase significantly from here as Europe starts to implode.
edit: did June's swap lines have anything to do with stocks starting their roll in May? i think so.
Please provide an exact quote regarding the statement of foreigners being "less dependent" on dollars. I'd like to know where I wrote that; I believe my statement was that the world has shrinking desire to hold USD - nothing to do with dependency. If anything, the US is dependent upon the rest of the world to keep the game going.
There is no definitive profit incentive with the established swap lines. They are necessary to facilitate liquidity and an attempt to reduce volatility in exchange rates occurring due to large capital flows from one region to another. If you see this differently, please elaborate.
Whether you view the USD-based global economy as an inverted pyramid or bubbles on top of bubbles, either way failure above leads to increasing deflationary pressure further down. Think about the implications of a collapse - the US has the most to lose and would be severely crushed, hence the strong incentive to prop the entire world up. This is being done by monetizing debt without actual realization of the expected value, so the entire system will become incredibly fragile. I find it very improbable that a system of such magnitude will be able to hold together with a skeletal support racked by osteoporosis.
The consequence of monetization is inflation even as many tangible goods experience deflation. Be careful not to mistake velocity of US dollars for demand; volume (quantity) does not equal quality. Again, ensure that you understand the concept of bad money driving out good money.
its my feeling that we're going to do a Japan. we're going to push on a string for the foreseeable future not getting anywhere with 0% interest rates which effectively kills all markets and savers/producers. all productive capital gets siphoned off to the elites who are well connected to their bought off politicians who keep passing bills in their favor. banks will be allowed to the extent possible to mark to model their rotting assets dangling a permanent cloud over our economy. our stock mkt will erode just like the Nikkei as long standing deflation sets in. not much will do well. perhaps bitcoin can save us.
Agreed. There are some key differences, but overall it's a similar path. Japan's currency inflated while the real economy deflated. I don't know if Bitcoin will save so much as provide an escape.
this is the silver daily chart for the past year. as i've said, i think its rolling over to the downside.
All you're looking at is one year? Are you aware of seasonality? For the past few years, the start has been marked by a decline and slow rise to the middle of the year. During the latter half of the year, the precious metals tend to take off without looking back. Are you suggesting that the world's problems have gone away and that this pattern is irrelevant? I don't see how anything has changed - in fact, things seem to have gotten worse.
Since you're analyzing charts, it should be obvious that the high at the end of April was followed by tests of support around $32. After that, there was a higher low followed by a higher high. It could also be argued that the consolidation pattern is in a rising channel. I don't see any long-term trend lines to mark major support points, nor moving averages. Where is the 50-day moving average, or the 200-dma? MACD? Fibonacci levels? Negative divergences? Index ratios?
Are you taking into account anything behind the scenes? Capital flows? Warehouse supply levels? Cost of manufacturing or mining? Corporate hedging on future returns? Political environments, worker strikes and nationalization efforts? International demand outside of the US and Europe?Daily gyrations do not make a trend.
do you have any idea how ridiculous what you just said is?
Take ten deep breaths and go grab a beer.