rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[dnaleor]

I am expecting at least 3000 USD: my log trenline gives this exchange rate at the end of the year. I would be surprised if we stay below the trendline during 2014 for the whole time.

edit: off course, the trendline changes with new data, but i doubt it goes down that much...

[1714791034]

1714791034

[dnaleor]

After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows?  

206 to 156 is 25% not 5%

I think we are at this step right now, last of weak hands are gonna sell soon, we dip below 500, then off too 2000-2500.

206 to 156 is indeed more than 5%
But liquidity increased also.

Possible scenario will be rally towards 1050 and down to 900-950. It's really hard to predict the level a rally/dump will reach, but it's almost certain we won't go straight up towards 1200 USD starting tomorrow

[ErisDiscordia]

I think we need to compare the current price range (640-660) with the 95 USD range back then. We will probably see a new rally with a conslidation around 800 USD (which will compare to the 120-130 USD in september).
After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows?  

This is exactly what I am expecting.

So far none of my expectations came true 

[BitChick]

After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows?  

206 to 156 is 25% not 5%

I think we are at this step right now, last of weak hands are gonna sell soon, we dip below 500, then off too 2000-2500.

206 to 156 is indeed more than 5%
But liquidity increased also.

Possible scenario will be rally towards 1050 and down to 900-950. It's really hard to predict the level a rally/dump will reach, but it's almost certain we won't go straight up towards 1200 USD starting tomorrow

Thanks for posting that! Saying something is "almost certain" in Bitcoin is one way to cause the opposite to happen.

[RAJSALLIN]

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

[piramida]

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing

you should understand that this forum != everyone. the wider definition of "everyone" is yet undecided, they usually jump in during the rally and until the very top when media coverage is peaking. people here, mostly, are already all-in.

[madmat]

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing

you should understand that this forum != everyone. the wider definition of "everyone" is yet undecided, they usually jump in during the rally and until the very top when media coverage is peaking. people here, mostly, are already all-in.

Completely agree. Media coverage is near 0 at the moment : http://www.google.fr/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q

[thezerg]

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

It is very possible that we are more like at Jan 15, 2012 at this point.  In other words, we've recovered from the oversold condition but will be basically flat (slowly creeping up) for another year -- probably until there's another minor meltdown in the traditional banking sector.

[btc6000]

...Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Worrying compared to what?

Number of transactions excluding popular addresses is ~3x what it was this time last year.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=1year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=1&address=

[BitChick]

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Some of us have already bought "like crazy" and are just waiting now.    But there are always some that really don't think it will happen that will panic on the way up.

[Pente]

Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

[thezerg]

Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

www.bitfinex.com

[BTCtrader71]

Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

www.bitfinex.com

You basically borrow USD so you can buy bitcoin, using your current bitcoin holdings as collateral. The rates are very very high, close to 0.2% per DAY. On the flip side ... depositing fiat and lending it out gives you a pretty good ROI (although not as good as bitcoin itself for us bulls). The biggest risk would be that bitfinex collapses and runs away with your money.

[cspeter8]

Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

www.bitfinex.com

You basically borrow USD so you can buy bitcoin, using your current bitcoin holdings as collateral. The rates are very very high, close to 0.2% per DAY. On the flip side ... depositing fiat and lending it out gives you a pretty good ROI (although not as good as bitcoin itself for us bulls). The biggest risk would be that bitfinex collapses and runs away with your money.

The idea of depositing fiat seems attractive to me.  Would you like to post your referral code so that I (and you as well?) get an incentive upon my signup?

[BTCtrader71]

Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

www.bitfinex.com

You basically borrow USD so you can buy bitcoin, using your current bitcoin holdings as collateral. The rates are very very high, close to 0.2% per DAY. On the flip side ... depositing fiat and lending it out gives you a pretty good ROI (although not as good as bitcoin itself for us bulls). The biggest risk would be that bitfinex collapses and runs away with your money.

The idea of depositing fiat seems attractive to me.  Would you like to post your referral code so that I (and you as well?) get an incentive upon my signup?

Sure - I didn't know bitfinex had a referral program! I think perhaps I need to email them to get a referral code. Am doing that now.

[rpietila]

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Some of us have already bought "like crazy" and are just waiting now.    But there are always some that really don't think it will happen that will panic on the way up.

Bitcoin bubbles have no chance of happening with the existing players' money. A new generation that is exponentially larger always has to enter, for the prices to rise to the new levels. This is the reason why critics call it a pyramid scheme. But it is nevertheless true.

What distinguishes Bitcoin from a pyramid scheme is that a typical pyramid does not do anything useful, or the utility is very small, and there is no network effect. So when there is no "next generation" to be recruited, it collapses.

With Bitcoin, on the other hand, the utility of the network grows (according to Metcalfe's law even quadratically) relative to the number of bitcoin holders. So there is no collapse; when everybody has bought into Bitcoin and the value per unit is really high, they will just continue to use it happily ever after, because as a monetary technology, it is superior to all alternatives that have been tried in the past millennia (mainly: precious metals and fiat).

[madmat]

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Some of us have already bought "like crazy" and are just waiting now.    But there are always some that really don't think it will happen that will panic on the way up.

Bitcoin bubbles have no chance of happening with the existing players' money. A new generation that is exponentially larger always has to enter, for the prices to rise to the new levels. This is the reason why critics call it a pyramid scheme. But it is nevertheless true.

What distinguishes Bitcoin from a pyramid scheme is that a typical pyramid does not do anything useful, or the utility is very small, and there is no network effect. So when there is no "next generation" to be recruited, it collapses.

With Bitcoin, on the other hand, the utility of the network grows (according to Metcalfe's law even quadratically) relative to the number of bitcoin holders. So there is no collapse; when everybody has bought into Bitcoin and the value per unit is really high, they will just continue to use it happily ever after, because as a monetary technology, it is superior to all alternatives that have been tried in the past millennia (mainly: precious metals and fiat).

+1. And we need a lot of noise in media to get a larger generation entering bitcoin.

[rpietila]

Since we are now in page 200 which is kind of a lot... perhaps a quote of the OP is in order... 

Welcome to the new business lounge. Wine and cigars are on the house.

The intention of this thread is to post analysis on short to medium term fiat/BTC price developments, scenarios, portfolio allocation, etc. what fits the topic.

Today's wines are very various cheaper varieties (kind of prooftasting for Malla Courtyard Café that opens next week). We will have some nice options available also, and courteously ask our guests to reveal their favorite drinks in advance so that we can stock up.

Cigar tasting - Cohiba Siglo II and Romeo y Julieta Wide Churchills. The Malla Cigar List is currently 14 varieties, and we are slowly enlarging the selection to the more exotic brands. The flagship is now Cohiba Behike 52, retail €55.

The limousine fleet also received its first addition yesterday, BMW 760i Lang with red leather (not the pictured car).

[aminorex]

Gold is valuable because it is the element that has the highest stocks:flows ratio (basically: it is the most plentiful)

This.  Liquidity is 1000% of the currency game.  That is why BTC shines so brightly.  Despite extreme volatility, which damages liquidity profoundly, it has the technical infrastructure to be a superior liquidity vehicle.

[aminorex]

Both ounce and bitcoin are arbitrary: gold can be measured in carats or grams, and bitcoins can be millibitcoins or decibitcoins or whatever. Isn't it better to compare market caps of gold and bitcoin?

So very true.  Also, emission rate and loss rate.