rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[dnaleor]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?  

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

Indeed. When I saw the recovery, I became very bullish. In those days, bitcoin was not really mainstream yet. Anything could happen. People thought that SR was needed to create a large demand for BTC. In 24-48 hours BTC was back to the previous level!
I immedialty told everyone to BUY BUY BUY at that moment

edit: I miss the feeling of the start of a rally  
The start of a rally is more fun than the rally itself, in my opinion...

Those days were so exciting  

[Todorius]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?  

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

Indeed. When I saw the recovery, I became very bullish. In those days, bitcoin was not really mainstream yet. Anything could happen. People thought that SR was needed to create a large demand for BTC. In 24-48 hours BTC was back to the previous level!
I immedialty told everyone to BUY BUY BUY at that moment

edit: I miss the feeling of the start of a rally 
The start of a rally is more fun than the rally itself, in my opinion...

Those theys were so exciting 

I think even more exciting days are to come, Dnaleor. As bitcoin gets more and more mainstream, things will happen that many did not anticipate, wonderful new applications and uses of bitcoin that we now still cannot imagine. I'm really looking forward to the future!

[molecular]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?  

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

Indeed. When I saw the recovery, I became very bullish. In those days, bitcoin was not really mainstream yet. Anything could happen. People thought that SR was needed to create a large demand for BTC. In 24-48 hours BTC was back to the previous level!
I immedialty told everyone to BUY BUY BUY at that moment

edit: I miss the feeling of the start of a rally  
The start of a rally is more fun than the rally itself, in my opinion...

Those days were so exciting  

So true.

I really have no idea wether or when we will have that pleasure again. That just adds to the excitiment, should it really happen, of course.

[Erdogan]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?  

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Isn't this primarily the work of the willy bot? Is there any indication that this will happen naturally in the near future?

You almost make it sound like you think that other markets are not manipulated - like there actually is such a thing as a natural and pure market somewhere.

In the free market, it is allowed to try to fool the other traders, but the others are free to expect it and take countermeasures.

[Erdogan]

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

Bitcoin is still the best investment, so if you don't need to consume now, why not suspend the SSS divestment for one iteration.

[molecular]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?  

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

oh man, feds are auctioning off the silkroad coins..

Wouldn't this be too funny if this turned out the same way as the SR bust, subsequent "little fast crash" and rocket afterwards back in '13?

[RoadStress]

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

rpitila how does this affect the TA?

[Pruden]

oh man, feds are auctioning off the silkroad coins..

Wouldn't this be too funny if this turned out the same way as the SR bust, subsequent "little fast crash" and rocket afterwards back in '13?

Wishful thinking at its worst. The SR bust took coins off the market, this movement returns the same amount. It's exactly the opposite effect. That's why the price rebounded in October: some smart people noticed the bust would increase the value of the floating bitcoins. We are not seeing a rebound now.

[molecular]

oh man, feds are auctioning off the silkroad coins..

Wouldn't this be too funny if this turned out the same way as the SR bust, subsequent "little fast crash" and rocket afterwards back in '13?

Wishful thinking at its worst. The SR bust took coins off the market, this movement returns the same amount. It's exactly the opposite effect. That's why the price rebounded in October: some smart people noticed the bust would increase the value of the floating bitcoins. We are not seeing a rebound now.

Yes, you're probably right, it's way too different a type of event.

However I don't understand how this is bearish news at all. It's not like the buyers of those coins will turn around and dump them on the market? Is it just because the demand will be expected to decrease? Did some entities cancel their "coin buying subscriptions" at bitstamp because he decided to buy some of the sr coins and now the selling from bitpay et al is stronger on stamp with that demand gone?

[criptix]

oh man, feds are auctioning off the silkroad coins..

Wouldn't this be too funny if this turned out the same way as the SR bust, subsequent "little fast crash" and rocket afterwards back in '13?

Wishful thinking at its worst. The SR bust took coins off the market, this movement returns the same amount. It's exactly the opposite effect. That's why the price rebounded in October: some smart people noticed the bust would increase the value of the floating bitcoins. We are not seeing a rebound now.

Yes, you're probably right, it's way too different a type of event.

However I don't understand how this is bearish news at all. It's not like the buyers of those coins will turn around and dump them on the market? Is it just because the demand will be expected to decrease? Did some entities cancel their "coin buying subscriptions" at bitstamp because he decided to buy some of the sr coins and now the selling from bitpay et al is stronger on stamp with that demand gone?

i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.
if the price is relative with some % to the market price, it would be smart to crash the market in some way before buying these 30 k coins for more profit/less money.

[BTCtrader71]

i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.

Explained here:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

[Biodom]

oh man, feds are auctioning off the silkroad coins..

Wouldn't this be too funny if this turned out the same way as the SR bust, subsequent "little fast crash" and rocket afterwards back in '13?

Wishful thinking at its worst. The SR bust took coins off the market, this movement returns the same amount. It's exactly the opposite effect. That's why the price rebounded in October: some smart people noticed the bust would increase the value of the floating bitcoins. We are not seeing a rebound now.

Yes, you're probably right, it's way too different a type of event.

However I don't understand how this is bearish news at all. It's not like the buyers of those coins will turn around and dump them on the market? Is it just because the demand will be expected to decrease? Did some entities cancel their "coin buying subscriptions" at bitstamp because he decided to buy some of the sr coins and now the selling from bitpay et al is stronger on stamp with that demand gone?

i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.
if the price is relative with some % to the market price, it would be smart to crash the market in some way before buying these 30 k coins for more profit/less money.

some hedge funds are frontrunning the gov, as they learned to do EVERY TIME. Don't worry, there will be others who will frontrun the frontrunners in the opposite direction. Too bad it will not be me.
Edit: haha, rebounded like a rubber band from $551 to $585

[criptix]

i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.

Explained here:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

nice find thanks.
its a online auction where u send in your bids privately as i understand.

The prevailing bids will be determined by the following criteria:

1. The eligible bidder who offers the highest price will be the prevailing bidder;
2. If there are multiple bids at the highest price, the first bid received will prevail; and
3. If fewer than all of the Series A blocks are sold to the highest bidder, the remaining blocks will be sold to the successive highest bidders until all blocks are sold.

well i guess my point could still be a possibility.

[Wary]

At SR1 it was dip 1/3, 2 days to almost recover, 11 days - start of rally.
At "SR2" it is dip 1/8, ?? days to almost recover, ?? days - start of rally. Next week probably?

[criptix]

usually someone should pop up with a graph and a TA now, what happened? 

[BitDreams]

Looking for a right shoulder: (click forward arrow to update chart) https://www.tradingview.com/v/gT8w1Qnq/

A break below 500 could invalidate the H&S pattern - doubtful that happens.

[dnaleor]

usually someone should pop up with a graph and a TA now, what happened? 

it's really funny. I guess some TA people will try to align the previous SR flash crash with the current one and predict the new rally starts in 3 days

however, I think we will see some volatility until the coins are actually sold and the market is sure they will not be dumped. I think we will trad around 600 USD for the next few weeks...

[silverfuture]

I'm glad to see the price go down before the auction. It only takes $$$ out of the hands of the feds and makes the buy price more attractive for large buyers who are also future hodlers.

[BTCtrader71]

what happened?  

Overreaction to news of the Silk Road selloff.

According to http://bitcoinwatch.com/, the volume of BTC traded over the past 24 hours on all exchanges is somewhere around 150,000 btc. (Someone pls verify I'm reading the chart correctly ... ) Compare that to 30,000 btc that the US Marshals Service is going to selloff. Are they going to dump it on a single exchange over the next 10 seconds? No. They are giving us a 19-day warning (payment is due July 1 - see http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/ ). If total trade volume between now and then is (let's say) $2mil btc, an extra 30k just increases the volume over that time period by 1.5% -- a drop in the bucket.

The 80-point drop from 630 to 550 (a 12% drop) was panic selling. That's what happened. No TA required.

[bitrider]

I'm glad to see the price go down before the auction. It only takes $$$ out of the hands of the feds and makes the buy price more attractive for large buyers who are also future hodlers.

correct. Who else would be buying all those coins, but long-time holders and investors. Whoever it is will not dump the coins at low prices - that's just crazy.