rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[wachtwoord]

Both ounce and bitcoin are arbitrary: gold can be measured in carats or grams, and bitcoins can be millibitcoins or decibitcoins or whatever. Isn't it better to compare market caps of gold and bitcoin?

So very true.  Also, emission rate and loss rate.

But the true market cap of gold is immeasurable (and probably infinite due to the nigh infinite supply of gold in the universe plus the possibility of manufacturing it).

Yes, a very good argument for Bitcoin over gold indeed.

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[holomen]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   

[prophetx]

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Some of us have already bought "like crazy" and are just waiting now.    But there are always some that really don't think it will happen that will panic on the way up.

Bitcoin bubbles have no chance of happening with the existing players' money. A new generation that is exponentially larger always has to enter, for the prices to rise to the new levels. This is the reason why critics call it a pyramid scheme. But it is nevertheless true.

What distinguishes Bitcoin from a pyramid scheme is that a typical pyramid does not do anything useful, or the utility is very small, and there is no network effect. So when there is no "next generation" to be recruited, it collapses.

With Bitcoin, on the other hand, the utility of the network grows (according to Metcalfe's law even quadratically) relative to the number of bitcoin holders. So there is no collapse; when everybody has bought into Bitcoin and the value per unit is really high, they will just continue to use it happily ever after, because as a monetary technology, it is superior to all alternatives that have been tried in the past millennia (mainly: precious metals and fiat).

+1. And we need a lot of noise in media to get a larger generation entering bitcoin.

+1. Not exactly media attention.  What needs to happen is that the protocol and higher level protocols that use the protocol (colored coins, msc, xcp, soon StorJ, etc) need to be integrated into end user consumer applications so that the experience is almost seamless.

Even with something like a USDCoin on bitcoin protocol, the number of BTC that would get tied up in transit if companies started using them to pay their employees and global contractors (i.e., something like Odesk) would have a significant impact on the underlying asset (BTC) used to transfer the USDCoin.

[Todorius]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

[cspeter8]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450?  Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards. 

[madmat]

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450?  Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards. 

Nobody could know. There is a long term trend which is upward. But short term could go up and down a lot, volatility is high on this market.

[holomen]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450?  Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards. 

I'm not a TA expert, just started to interpret and read about few weeks ago, but from my point of view, I have few arguments:

1.If there were a retest, it most probably would have started on first days of June.
2.We are about -0,39 from S.Reeds trendline.
3.Within 6 day period (2 hour chart) highest candles are still green
4.And the Selling is Caused by week hands and none of the strong ones wants to Donate their coins;)



 

[Todorius]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450?  Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards. 

I'm not a TA expert, just started to interpret and read about few weeks ago, but from my point of view, I have few arguments:

1.If there were a retest, it most probably would have started on first days of June.
2.We are about -0,39 from S.Reeds trendline.
3.Within 6 day period (2 hour chart) highest candles are still green
4.And the Selling is Caused by week hands and none of the strong ones wants to Donate their coins;)

 

This. All the indicators basically are very similar to the situation in Sep 2013.

[wiltontilt]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Isn't this primarily the work of the willy bot? Is there any indication that this will happen naturally in the near future?

[bananaControl]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?  

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Isn't this primarily the work of the willy bot? Is there any indication that this will happen naturally in the near future?

You almost make it sound like you think that other markets are not manipulated - like there actually is such a thing as a natural and pure market somewhere.

[Todorius]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?  

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Isn't this primarily the work of the willy bot? Is there any indication that this will happen naturally in the near future?

You almost make it sound like you think that other markets are not manipulated - like there actually is such a thing as a natural and pure market somewhere.

Yes. And don't forget two things:
1. The willy bot might have very well been a bot for large players, to aquire large masses of BTC, having some special 0% fee agreement with Mt Gox.
2. Or other willy-type bots might very well be active right now, or start aquiring large masses of BTC in the near future.

[eat_more_fruit]

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

[MahaRamana]

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

The best you can invest in is your own business that creates value for others, that you are passionate about and that is profitable. I have found this to be the best asset.
Precious metals are good to have in small amount as an insurance if things go bad - they could be valuable in some scenarios.
Real estate depending on your personal situation/location. Productive land.

I don't like publicly traded companies and debt (treasuries).

[Wary]

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

The best you can invest in is your own business that creates value for others, that you are passionate about and that is profitable. I have found this to be the best asset.
Precious metals are good to have in small amount as an insurance if things go bad - they could be valuable in some scenarios.
Real estate depending on your personal situation/location. Productive land.

I don't like publicly traded companies and debt (treasuries).

But don't forget that most of new businesses fail.

[rpietila]

This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

[av123]

This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like we are right on target for that.

[Todorius]

This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like we are right on target for that.

I think we'll stay flat at this level and then in the beginning of July, things will start to heat up suddenly.
Beginning of July we very well might still be in this price range, end of July: higher than the old ATH. Yes, you heard me right

[molecular]

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

[molecular]

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

good land and real estate maybe?

[Todorius]

My thoughts on what will happen during the coming weeks:




Notice the similarities to the 2013 recovery - absolutely mindboggling!

We might retest the first Fibo Level at slightly over 600, then a few weeks of boredom, and then lift-off in early July.
It might play out another way, but history tends to repeat itself, so I'd put the chances of that happening, slightly above other scenarios.