rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[windjc]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

You really are leaving us.

Care to go into a more detailed description of our pending bitcoin apocalypse?

I've given the details already. The technicals of this subcycle have diverged from the technicals of the previous subcycles, so it more likely to continue diverging from them than to follow them and start another rally. If the 1 week emas go down then there will likely be a long sideways/down period. I didn't necessarily say anything about an apocalypse. Unlike other posters here shouting about $100 etc, I haven't given a specific downside target. I simply acknowledge that it will not be a very profitable time to trade or invest. Holding funds on an exchange to trade with for an entire year would certainly be too risky. It would be much less risky and more profitable to withdraw the funds into other markets and investments where they grow exponentially (or at least don't disappear), and then can be put back into the bitcoin markets when ready (and probably at a lower price than where I sold). FYI I am not committed to this path yet.

Ok. Makes sense. But, just note, when you say things like "we are no longer talking about a 9 month subcyle" and "if we break the weekly 30 EMA then its a new ballgame (paraphrased)"  it sounds very dramatic.

We are certainly going to close a week or two below the weekly EMA. Its happened before. That doesn't mean anything. If it just continues to stair step down to $370 then it might indeed be a little time until we recover.

However, I do not think it can be restated enough:bitcoin is not a stock nor is it a commodity (yet).  It has not and will not follow all the predicted rules. As you have experienced yourself more than once.

[TERA]

Here's a little disclosure: Nearly all of my posts in /Speculation are just that: speculations. They are probabilities, not certainties. So stop being so dramatic.

[molecular]

It seesm everybody and their sister is looking to buy at that $400 level. I suspect that final capitulation may be closer to $200-250 but I know nobody wants to hear that.

Last summer many people like you said the price was sure to revisit 32$.

Actually they said the price would revisit 50$, which it didn't do.



I think we might be here.

[molecular]

Here's a little disclosure: Nearly all of my posts in /Speculation are just that: speculations. They are probabilities, not certainties. So stop being so dramatic.

am I sensing a little underestimation of yourself? recognize the power you have and use it wisely.

[damnek]

It seesm everybody and their sister is looking to buy at that $400 level. I suspect that final capitulation may be closer to $200-250 but I know nobody wants to hear that.

Last summer many people like you said the price was sure to revisit 32$.

Actually they said the price would revisit 50$, which it didn't do.

...

I think we might be here.

That's also my current assumption, although we might get one more leg down in the next few days. Just like now, I recall at that time the force behind the decline was really weak at which point I knew we were close.

[eiskalt]

It seesm everybody and their sister is looking to buy at that $400 level. I suspect that final capitulation may be closer to $200-250 but I know nobody wants to hear that.

Last summer many people like you said the price was sure to revisit 32$.

Actually they said the price would revisit 50$, which it didn't do.



I think we might be here.

No, if one compares it like that, we are around 3-4 weeks later.

Watch 1d 7/30 EMAs and look at the envelope (SMA20) band - it is more obvious then.

[windjc]

Here's a little disclosure: Nearly all of my posts in /Speculation are just that: speculations. They are probabilities, not certainties. So stop being so dramatic.

Its because you always write in real or implied absolutes. You do not write as if you are hedging or forecasting potentials.

[Nicholas-Carraway]

Here's a little disclosure: Nearly all of my posts in /Speculation are just that: speculations. They are probabilities, not certainties. So stop being so dramatic.

Tera,

What do you think of the LTC chart?  I'd sincerely like to hear your opinion, and if you think it differs from BTC in recent weeks.

Best,
Nick

[mladen00]

How much will BTC price if Russia, China and others BRICS countries say bye bye to USD?
Pricerelative to gold,because then the dollar value will be questionable.

[chessnut]

Tera,

What do you think of the LTC chart?  I'd sincerely like to hear your opinion, and if you think it differs from BTC in recent weeks.

Best,
Nick

Dont mean to butt in here, but Im following LTC closely.

..... obviously there was a bubble leading up to the launch on Huobi. fun short trading that.

I doubt that the launch will increase genuine demand significantly, so any recovery from the recent crash will be only a portion of the last bubble, and likely only profit taking because the crowd needs time to re-build trust.

I entered a long position today because the chart is over sold but down momentum is lost. I want to cash out at around $17-18, and short a bunch if it shows any sign of weakness.

[rpietila]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

Anything else but your word to support this theory?

[windjc]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

Anything else but your word to support this theory?

He posted about it in another thread a day or so ago. Basically he was using a combination of RSI and other indicators to suggest that this "capitulation" cycle was much different than ones before and was leading into a long term bearish cycle.

[rpietila]

The 5-year trendline is not at 880. We are at 560. It is becoming an increasingly good time to buy, similar to buying <100 last summer just months before an explosive correction upwards.

Mathematically, the log(880)-log(560) = -0.196. Last time it got to -0.341 and the time before that (Dec-2012) to -0.583.

Because the knowlegde of Bitcoin's long-term value is now spread wider, I would be surprised if we go as low as -0.5 below the trend. -0.3 is quite possible, and it would take us to 463 if the low point was reached a week from now.

On the other hand, when everybody is expecting lower prices they typically don't come. It's been a red candle 8 days in a row and it is oversold.

[rpietila]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

Anything else but your word to support this theory?

He posted about it in another thread a day or so ago. Basically he was using a combination of RSI and other indicators to suggest that this "capitulation" cycle was much different than ones before and was leading into a long term bearish cycle.

Then it conflicts with the fundamentals. Bitcoin usage is growing exponentially and the new users/investors need bitcoins. When they buy them, the price rises. Any TA that does not take this into account is harmful for the financial well-being of its user

[windjc]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

Anything else but your word to support this theory?

He posted about it in another thread a day or so ago. Basically he was using a combination of RSI and other indicators to suggest that this "capitulation" cycle was much different than ones before and was leading into a long term bearish cycle.

Then it conflicts with the fundamentals. Bitcoin usage is growing exponentially and the new users/investors need bitcoins. When they buy them, the price rises. Any TA that does not take this into account is harmful for the financial well-being of its user

He has stated that he believes 95% of the value of price is speculation. I don't think he believes fundamentals that you mention are currently important or related to large price increases.

[chessnut]

Im not sure how to post graphs here, but has anybody else noticed that the recent drop has squarely bounced off that almighty trendline that BTCe sports so very well. The one that underlines the daily wedge.

MAbc would know what im talking about.

any sign of reversal at this stage would be significant for so many reasons....

I think the chinese that sold on the FUD want their bitcoins back too.

[wachtwoord]

In this discussions about the capitulation cycles, you have to realize that we are no longer talking about the typical 9 month subcycle - this cycle is breaking, which became apparent last week. We are now talking about the 2-3 year supercycle.

Anything else but your word to support this theory?

He posted about it in another thread a day or so ago. Basically he was using a combination of RSI and other indicators to suggest that this "capitulation" cycle was much different than ones before and was leading into a long term bearish cycle.

Then it conflicts with the fundamentals. Bitcoin usage is growing exponentially and the new users/investors need bitcoins. When they buy them, the price rises. Any TA that does not take this into account is harmful for the financial well-being of its user

He has stated that he believes 95% of the value of price is speculation. I don't think he believes fundamentals that you mention are currently important or related to large price increases.

Even if only 5% of the current price represents fundamentals. If the fundamentals grow exponentially that 5% will exceed the other 95% very quickly.

[bitrider]

One of the factors I keep in mind as I watch this market, is that the price is still easily manipulated by relatively small amounts of $ or btc. The big players in the game today can pretty much move the market wherever they want - although temporarily. Right now they have a very strong incentive to keep the long-term trend positive - even while of course pushing prices lower to get better buy prices for their clients/investors/self. So while it is certainly possible we could see somewhat lower prices for a week or so, I think it unlikely at this point that the big fish will let the market turn seriously down (ie negative sloping 200 ema). Once that happened, technical investors would loose interest for the time being. They want this ride to continue too. So I think we will see a very similar pattern to what we saw in the last 2 cycles. Steady, boring climbs very close to the 200 ema until the pressure of new money, and a wildly optimistic news cycle kicks in.

And this will continue to be the case as long as underlying adoption fundamentals continue to grow on trend.

When/if we start seeing significant drops in rate of adoption fundamentals (adoption gap) then I think we may see the market turn serious negative for a year or more. This of course is very possible at some point in our journey, but that is not at all what I am seeing now. Almost all of the incentives and fundamentals are aligned for continued bull market (+slope 200 ema). And I do believe (although don't have the data for it) that there is plenty of new money ready to come in the game as soon as price is clearly not going lower, and as more serious exchange options come on line.

BTW although this is a technical analysis thread - a great interview with very sweet woman setting up bitpesa in Kenya. Ignore the first 12:15 on the video (unless you enjoy Max). Excellent example of disruption that is coming this year, and they also have the right attitude and practical business sense to create real adoption breakthroughs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAOVpd2rzR0&index=2&list=FLKXisgZ3QP19rEPFzqfUmzA

[cAPSLOCK]

Then it conflicts with the fundamentals. Bitcoin usage is growing exponentially and the new users/investors need bitcoins. When they buy them, the price rises. Any TA that does not take this into account is harmful for the financial well-being of its user

This is so super important.  Bitcoin's fundamentals are very compelling.  Until something comes along that solves nearly ALL of bitcoin's problems and overtakes it's growing network effect bitcoin continues to have a lot of built in fundamental propulsive power.  Considering that many solutions to bicoin's shortcomings will be layers on top of bitcoin, there is also a possibility, in my opinion, that within bitcoin itself and its community is the solution to it's own problems.

[chopstick]

Bitcoin is quite clearly going 2 da moon long term. The question is when. When will we hit the 10k mark and finally be catapulted into bitcoin mainstream usage and big company acceptance like amazon? It will happen eventually, the signs are all there. The question is when. This year or next year or 5 years from now?