Bitcoin or gold?

[deisik]

So as the value now will go up, the price will follow. I think we will never see bitcoin below 200$, i think its very foolish to think that the next price increase will be a bubble, because now we got strong economic support for bitcoin, not only forum shills.

Financial assets (that is those which can be "settled" in fiat) are bubble-prone by definition. Bitcoin pretending to be money and having nothing behind it but trust is the embodiment of a bubble vehicle. So the next price spike can be nothing more but an attempt at...

An attempt at framing another bubble

Bitcoin does not have only trust behind it. If it had only trust, how would it have earned that trust in the first place ?
This argument is very ignorant.

What earned this trust is not important. If it evaporates, Bitcoin becomes worthless the same very moment, and its price hits zero. You cannot eat it and you cannot pay taxes with it, which would make the amount of trust in it somewhat irrelevant...

If some people don't trust Bitcoin, they don't have it. What else is here to say?

[1714977481]

1714977481

[MahaRamana]

It is relevant, because it earned whatever trust it has gradually and through lots of trials. For the trust to evaporate would require a failure of the system or a shut down of the internet. The fact that some people don't trust it does not mean that bitcoin can lose the trust that it has acquired overnight. Of course it's all trust! But what can break it ?

On the other hand, the complete disintegration of the trust in the USD is baked in the cake and only a few weeks or months away.

[bryant.coleman]

What earned this trust is not important. If it evaporates, Bitcoin becomes worthless the same very moment, and its price hits zero. You cannot eat it and you cannot pay taxes with it, which would make the amount of trust in it somewhat irrelevant...

It is still possible to destroy the trust. I know that it is theoretically impossible to double-spend or counterfeit the Bitcoins. But what will happen if in the not too distant future, a bug is invented by someone (or by the government) which makes double-spend possible? The trust will be lost, and the exchange rate will plummet to zero.

[RealBitcoin]

So as the value now will go up, the price will follow. I think we will never see bitcoin below 200$, i think its very foolish to think that the next price increase will be a bubble, because now we got strong economic support for bitcoin, not only forum shills.

Financial assets (that is those which can be "settled" in fiat) are bubble-prone by definition. Bitcoin pretending to be money and having nothing behind it but trust is the embodiment of a bubble vehicle. So the next price spike can be nothing more but an attempt at...

An attempt at framing another bubble

Well sorry that nobody told you this but we live in a relativistic universe, nothing has value by it's own.

Bitcoin has value compared to fiat, just as gold has value compared to fiat, just as bitcoin has value compared to gold.

The valuation mechanism is like a giant scale, on 1 plate you got the instrument,  and on the other you got the basket of the other similar intruments you compare to.

Bitcoin is just as valid as a financial instrument as gold. Of course bitcoin is better than gold overall, while gold has some pros as contras, bitcoin too, but overall bitcoin is just way better than gold.

I already explained it why, a few pages ago.

[deisik]

It is relevant, because it earned whatever trust it has gradually and through lots of trials. For the trust to evaporate would require a failure of the system or a shut down of the internet. The fact that some people don't trust it does not mean that bitcoin can lose the trust that it has acquired overnight. Of course it's all trust! But what can break it ?

Relevant to what? If there is no trust, there is no Bitcoin. You may not trust in the US dollar, but being a US citizen (for example), you must pay taxes in that currency (the same is true for other monies as well), so you have to get some dollars (whether you like it or not)...

On the other hand, the complete disintegration of the trust in the USD is baked in the cake and only a few weeks or months away.

I guess you can easily explain why the US dollar has been recently appreciating towards other major currencies

[Erdogan]

The value comes from very different individuals, who compare two things and choose one. So it is not a giant scale, but 7 billion small scales. When all micro-evaluations are added together in the market, and things are traded, we get the prices.

[deisik]

So as the value now will go up, the price will follow. I think we will never see bitcoin below 200$, i think its very foolish to think that the next price increase will be a bubble, because now we got strong economic support for bitcoin, not only forum shills.

Financial assets (that is those which can be "settled" in fiat) are bubble-prone by definition. Bitcoin pretending to be money and having nothing behind it but trust is the embodiment of a bubble vehicle. So the next price spike can be nothing more but an attempt at...

An attempt at framing another bubble

Well sorry that nobody told you this but we live in a relativistic universe, nothing has value by it's own.

Bitcoin has value compared to fiat, just as gold has value compared to fiat, just as bitcoin has value compared to gold.

The valuation mechanism is like a giant scale, on 1 plate you got the instrument,  and on the other you got the basket of the other similar intruments you compare to.

Bitcoin is just as valid as a financial instrument as gold. Of course bitcoin is better than gold overall, while gold has some pros as contras, bitcoin too, but overall bitcoin is just way better than gold.

I already explained it why, a few pages ago.

You are talking your usual BS (well, prolixities and verbiage), which is not even remotely related to the point I made, or to your post that I answered to...

This still doesn't change a thing about Bitcoin being a perfect bubble-maker

[Xxmodded]

Gold for sure. It is a proven and reliable investment. Even when it goes down, it always bounces back with great returns. BTC has potential to make you money faster, but also has the risk where you can lose it all too, unless you were an early adopter.

[MahaRamana]

It is relevant, because it earned whatever trust it has gradually and through lots of trials. For the trust to evaporate would require a failure of the system or a shut down of the internet. The fact that some people don't trust it does not mean that bitcoin can lose the trust that it has acquired overnight. Of course it's all trust! But what can break it ?

Relevant to what? If there is no trust, there is no Bitcoin. You may not trust in the US dollar, but being a US citizen (for example), you must pay taxes in that currency (the same is true for other monies as well), so you have to get some dollars (whether you like it or not)...

We are talking about storage of value beyond what is needed to pay government and local needs.
When the USD collapses, the question of paying taxes in USD will go together with it.
If americans are lucky, they will be imposed a new currency and will be able to exchange their USD to buy some of it, losing at least 90% of their current purchasing power in the process. If they are not lucky, their entire savings will be wiped out.

I guess you can easily explain why the US dollar has been recently appreciating towards other major currencies

All major currencies of the western world will collapse in a few weeks or months, driven by the collapse of the USD. What they are doing relative to each other is meaningless at this stage of the collapse of the system. People who hold the strong belief that the system cannot break will be surprised very soon.
For the USD to appreciate against other currencies, all it takes is a higher than normal demand for USD. High demand for a currency can come from many sources, including an unwinding of USD denominated assets and positions outside the USA. The rise of the USD has been happening while commodities were going down very quickly. There are trillions of various forms of (mostly OTC) derivative instruments that are based on commodities and most of them all over the world are denominated in USD. The collapse in the energy and other commodity sector has triggered a silent derivatives counterparty bomb that we can’t see because of the intentional opacity of the OTC derivatives market. But you don’t have a 50% collapse in a key economic commodity like oil – a commodity which has $100’s of billions in OTC derivatives securities wrapped around it – without some kind of counterparty default tsunami that has been triggered. We are actually in the middle of a meltdown of the western financial system. The absurdity of the derivative exposure of all the players remains mostly hidden, but with the collapse of the greek economy and debt, the collapse of the energy and other commodities, it will very soon be acknowledged that the positions of each player CANNOT be unwounded without leaving everyone bankrupt. The game is literally up. People going into September without diversification away from FIAT and into directly held precious metals, bitcoin or sustainable estates will be left with nothing.

The shooting up of the USD in the past few months is a sign that the great unwinding has begun. After the peak of the USD index, the descent to 0 will be incredibly more sudden. Completely vertical in fact and happening in a matter of hours or days.

The debate of this post should be about what is an optimal ratio to hold between Bitcoin, Gold, Silver and land outside US. Not about when the USD will collapse.

[deisik]

It is relevant, because it earned whatever trust it has gradually and through lots of trials. For the trust to evaporate would require a failure of the system or a shut down of the internet. The fact that some people don't trust it does not mean that bitcoin can lose the trust that it has acquired overnight. Of course it's all trust! But what can break it ?

Relevant to what? If there is no trust, there is no Bitcoin. You may not trust in the US dollar, but being a US citizen (for example), you must pay taxes in that currency (the same is true for other monies as well), so you have to get some dollars (whether you like it or not)...

We are talking about storage of value beyond what is needed to pay government and local needs.
When the USD collapses, the question of paying taxes in USD will go together with it.
If americans are lucky, they will be imposed a new currency and will be able to exchange their USD to buy some of it, losing at least 90% of their current purchasing power in the process. If they are not lucky, their entire savings will be wiped out.

In that case, it all boils down to trust ("storage of value beyond what is needed to pay government and local needs"). My point is that Bitcoin got momentum since at the beginning it offered entirely new and unique features (that of a fast decentralized payment system), that is, something which is objective and valuable per se (not based on trust as such). But now there are a lot of altcoins doing just the same (in fact, even better, faster, and cheaper), so Bitcoin has now only trust backing it up. This doesn't make it somehow deficient or failing, but you should understand the consequences. I specifically mentioned taxes since that example allows to understand this point...

Consider the circumstances under which you are allowed to pay taxes directly with a number of different monies

[deisik]

All major currencies of the western world will collapse in a few weeks or months, driven by the collapse of the USD. What they are doing relative to each other is meaningless at this stage of the collapse of the system. People who hold the strong belief that the system cannot break will be surprised very soon.
For the USD to appreciate against other currencies, all it takes is a higher than normal demand for USD. High demand for a currency can come from many sources, including an unwinding of USD denominated assets and positions outside the USA. The rise of the USD has been happening while commodities were going down very quickly. There are trillions of various forms of (mostly OTC) derivative instruments that are based on commodities and most of them all over the world are denominated in USD. The collapse in the energy and other commodity sector has triggered a silent derivatives counterparty bomb that we can’t see because of the intentional opacity of the OTC derivatives market. But you don’t have a 50% collapse in a key economic commodity like oil – a commodity which has $100’s of billions in OTC derivatives securities wrapped around it – without some kind of counterparty default tsunami that has been triggered. We are actually in the middle of a meltdown of the western financial system. The absurdity of the derivative exposure of all the players remains mostly hidden, but with the collapse of the greek economy and debt, the collapse of the energy and other commodities, it will very soon be acknowledged that the positions of each player CANNOT be unwounded without leaving everyone bankrupt. The game is literally up. People going into September without diversification away from FIAT and into directly held precious metals, bitcoin or sustainable estates will be left with nothing.

In fact, this is pretty much consistent with my thoughts, though I'm thinking about real economy. We see that oil collapsed ("a key economic commodity"), that necessarily means that the whole economy behind it is collapsing (since falling demand may mean only one thing). They say that oil production has actually increased, but could it have increased to such a degree as to make oil prices fall twice as much?

I guess the answer is no

[MahaRamana]

In fact, this is pretty much consistent with my thoughts, though I'm thinking about real economy. We see that oil collapsed ("a key economic commodity"), that necessarily means that the whole economy behind it is collapsing. They say that oil production has actually increased, but could it have increased to such a degree as to make oil prices fall twice as much?

I guess the answer is no

Exactly. The real economy is collapsing. And that means the financial system. The illusion of perpetual growth is dissolving and it means the dissolution of the orion fraud financial/monetary system that requires endless exponential growth just to stay even.

Digital money on bank accounts will be frozen at first and then wiped out either through bail-ins or converted to a new IMF currency.

The effect on this (100% certain and short-term) event on bitcoin is extremely hard to predict for the period right after the crash/reset. It is not clear if bitcoin will be able to withstand the huge wave of new users that wake up to the atrocious fraud of the globalists' financial system. It is also unclear what will be the reaction of the globalists regarding the use of bitcoin.

All in all, confronted with the unimaginable end of this "monetary experiment" that started 100 years ago, we must admit that we don't know how things will play out and which role will play either precious metals or bitcoin in that historical period. However, it seems clear to me that the odds of retaining purchasing power going through the collapse is much greater while holding PM and BTC as compared to FIAT, stocks and most of the overinflated real estate.

[RealBitcoin]

So as the value now will go up, the price will follow. I think we will never see bitcoin below 200$, i think its very foolish to think that the next price increase will be a bubble, because now we got strong economic support for bitcoin, not only forum shills.

Financial assets (that is those which can be "settled" in fiat) are bubble-prone by definition. Bitcoin pretending to be money and having nothing behind it but trust is the embodiment of a bubble vehicle. So the next price spike can be nothing more but an attempt at...

An attempt at framing another bubble

Well sorry that nobody told you this but we live in a relativistic universe, nothing has value by it's own.

Bitcoin has value compared to fiat, just as gold has value compared to fiat, just as bitcoin has value compared to gold.

The valuation mechanism is like a giant scale, on 1 plate you got the instrument,  and on the other you got the basket of the other similar intruments you compare to.

Bitcoin is just as valid as a financial instrument as gold. Of course bitcoin is better than gold overall, while gold has some pros as contras, bitcoin too, but overall bitcoin is just way better than gold.

I already explained it why, a few pages ago.

You are talking your usual BS (well, prolixities and verbiage), which is not even remotely related to the point I made, or to your post that I answered to...

This still doesn't change a thing about Bitcoin being a perfect bubble-maker

That is very poor counterargument, even from you, i was illustrating that every value is relative.

You said that bitcoin is prone to huge bubbles because of dollar manipulation, but you fail to realize that gold is exactly the same.


I mean how you measure gold's value if not compared to something else. My post makes perfect sense, you can have a ton of gold but if you have nothing else to compare it too then it's value is 0.

If you have people who are willing to give a sportscar for a goldbar, then thats another story.


In the end it all comes down to supply & demand. And while gold supply is certainly not fixed, the demand is falling (long term, with minor short term hoarding by "preppers"). Bitcoin has a fixed supply, and it's demand is growing in long term.

Idk but i choose Bitcoin in any case!

[markj113]

"the demand is falling (long term, with minor short term hoarding by "preppers")"

Well thats a load of crap  

Im sure "preppers" probably account for such a small % of gold sales its insignificant.

China, Russia and India are buying gold as quickly as they can accumulate it

[deisik]

That is very poor counterargument, even from you, i was illustrating that every value is relative.

You said that bitcoin is prone to huge bubbles because of dollar manipulation, but you fail to realize that gold is exactly the same.

WTF, where did I say that? Are you sure that you are not confusing me with someone else? I never meant to say (neither did I actually say anything of the kind) that bitcoin is prone to bubbles because of dollar manipulation. I can't even grasp what you're trying to convey by this (that is, bitcoin dollar manipulation, or dollar manipulation of bitcoin, you name it)...

My post was about Bitcoin, not gold, but nevertheless, I guess you are extremely wrong (whatever you may mean)

[JanaBB]

definitelly both, i don't prefer keeping my all money in one place... you never know what happens in future, bank bankruptcy, natural disasters, war or damned hacker

[zerorabbit23]

I would keep some in both.  There is good to be had from diversifying one's assets.

[dollarneed]

definitelly both, i don't prefer keeping my all money in one place... you never know what happens in future, bank bankruptcy, natural disasters, war or damned hacker

Yup i agreed politely
I didn't want to put all my eggs in one basket, Don't invest all of my money in one thing
Don't concentrate all your prospects or resources in one thing, or you could lose everything.

[RealBitcoin]

That is very poor counterargument, even from you, i was illustrating that every value is relative.

You said that bitcoin is prone to huge bubbles because of dollar manipulation, but you fail to realize that gold is exactly the same.

WTF, where did I say that? Are you sure that you are not confusing me with someone else? I never meant to say (neither did I actually say anything of the kind) that bitcoin is prone to bubbles because of dollar manipulation. I can't even grasp what you're trying to convey by this (that is, bitcoin dollar manipulation, or dollar manipulation of bitcoin, you name it)...

My post was about Bitcoin, not gold, but nevertheless, I guess you are extremely wrong (whatever you may mean)

Financial assets (that is those which can be "settled" in fiat) are bubble-prone by definition.

You said this, which is obvious , that by manipulating the dollar supply you can manipulate bitcoins price too. But that is true for gold too.

Not to say the real manipulation of gold, the gold certificates, gold is deliberately held low, so that a few people can hoard, and double their money when it rises.

But still a 100% ROI is a poor investment, compared to bitcoin when it really hits on the streets, it can make 100000% ROI.

"the demand is falling (long term, with minor short term hoarding by "preppers")"

Well thats a load of crap 

Im sure "preppers" probably account for such a small % of gold sales its insignificant.

China, Russia and India are buying gold as quickly as they can accumulate it

Ok but even if gold gets to 6000$ which many people forecast ,its not a good ROI, while bitcoin reaching 6000$ would be a much higher ROI %, and its more probable due to smaller market cap.

Gold will obviously don't reach 100,000$ or higher, because it already has a huge market cap, if if it does, then you bet the USD is under hyperinflation, at which 1 BTC will be likely to be 1 trillion $.

[GreenStox]

Gold is just a piece of metal, mostly like any other metal, but scarcer.

The scarcity and the shinyness gives it's value, which is lame.

Bitcoin has real high-tech network behind it, and a cutting edge technology for 21 century financing.

Gold is just a bronze age primitive metal.