🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[Synchronice]

I don't use TikTok, but was getting some news/video feeds about Topuria, mainly about him announcing his willingness to move up to the lightweight to fight Islam after he defeats Holloway. But yeah, he has been very active recently by appearing on podcasts, giving interviews and trying to stir things up for publicity.
On one hand, you can't blame him, he has his 15 minutes and trying to squeeze as much out of it as possible. that includes doing his part in increasing PPV sales, for which he surely will receive his cut. On the other hand, there's that thing called decency and being a good human being. Doing anything for the money is a whorish behaviour.

It will be interesting to see him fighting against Islam but I think he has no chance against Islam. Islam is getting better every day. There is a huge difference between Islam when he fought Volkanovski at first and the last time. Islam is also high and his reach is much higher than Topuria's. I wouldn't say that Topuria has 0 chance against him but I would say that there is a high chance Islam wins but (again but), Topuria is unpredictable in a good way.

What I don't like about Topuria is that he copy/pastes Conor McGregor but is doing like Conor ordered from Temu. He isn't a trash talker and can't fake it, it's so obvious when he tries to trash talk.
By the way, I would really love to see Topuria vs Paddy Pimblett. Their last trash talk was great, Paddy got into Topuria's skin and made him insane.

[tokeweed]

But imagine what hysteria would be, if Belal would finish Shavkhat by KO I think that will shut lots of mouths UFC is full for surprises. Nobody before believed that this guy show name people hardly remember, will beat Edwards. Edwards fought on his homeland, was on a hype after beating Usman twice. And still lost to Belal. However I would still go with Shavkhat.  

P.S. This weekends Ngannou fights in PFL against a guy who is even bigger than Ngannou

Yeah we can't deny something like that not happening but I think as a comparison between Muhammad vs Rakhmonov and Usman vs Edwards, there's a higher possibility that Edwards would KO Usman than Muhammad KO'ing Rakhmonov.  Edwards is a good striker while Muhammad is a wrestler.  And Usman was showing some signs that he's low key chinny after that match up with Burns...  Burns knocked Usman down at the first round.

Weigh ins in 4 hours folks...

UFC Fight Night 245:  Hernandez vs Pereira Official Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkQoVAUu5r4

[danherbias07]

But imagine what hysteria would be, if Belal would finish Shavkhat by KO I think that will shut lots of mouths UFC is full for surprises. Nobody before believed that this guy show name people hardly remember, will beat Edwards. Edwards fought on his homeland, was on a hype after beating Usman twice. And still lost to Belal. However I would still go with Shavkhat.  

P.S. This weekends Ngannou fights in PFL against a guy who is even bigger than Ngannou

Yeah we can't deny something like that not happening but I think as a comparison between Muhammad vs Rakhmonov and Usman vs Edwards, there's a higher possibility that Edwards would KO Usman than Muhammad KO'ing Rakhmonov.  Edwards is a good striker while Muhammad is a wrestler.  And Usman was showing some signs that he's low key chinny after that match up with Burns...  Burns knocked Usman down at the first round.

Weigh ins in 4 hours folks...

UFC Fight Night 245:  Hernandez vs Pereira Official Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkQoVAUu5r4

Who are you betting for?
I think this is like a match that will just add to Michel Pereira's winning streak. Well, both have a good winning streak in their last fights but the experience will be the difference. 31-11 for Pereira at 31 years of age and Hernandez at the same age as Pereira but with a low amount of battles.

I wish Hernandez hadn't partyed last night because it's his birthday. He will be energized without a doubt but the alcohol could also change your mentality and condition.
I am putting my money on Pereira on this match.

[pawel7777]

It will be interesting to see him fighting against Islam but I think he has no chance against Islam. Islam is getting better every day. There is a huge difference between Islam when he fought Volkanovski at first and the last time. Islam is also high and his reach is much higher than Topuria's. I wouldn't say that Topuria has 0 chance against him but I would say that there is a high chance Islam wins but (again but), Topuria is unpredictable in a good way.

I think Topuria would still take it. If he beats Max, he would want to go for whatever fight pays the most, and that would likely be Islam. He's got not much to lose, if he suffers a defeat, he could just say he lost to a bigger guy from a higher weight class and return to the featherweight.
Meanwhile, the UFC 312 is confirmed to take place in Sydney in February. The cards are not yet known but Alex Volkanovski said he will likely be there and that he was promised a title shot, or even an interim title fight if the winner of Topuria/Holloway decides to move up.

https://bloodyelbow.com/2024/10/17/alexander-volkanovski-confirms-plan-to-fight-on-newly-announced-ufc-312-card-in-australia-suggests-interim-title-clash-with-diego-lopes/

We might also see Whittaker going against Du Plessis again, provided he wins with Khamzat, which he won't.

[OgNasty]

I saw Paddy the Baddy on BeardMeatsFood’s YouTube channel yesterday. Beard was taking on Paddy’s wings record at his local pub. Obviously Beard set a new record but it was a funny video to watch for several reasons. We also got to see another side of Paddy. Check it out. BeardMeatsFood is great to enjoy while eating a big meal.

[tokeweed]

But imagine what hysteria would be, if Belal would finish Shavkhat by KO I think that will shut lots of mouths UFC is full for surprises. Nobody before believed that this guy show name people hardly remember, will beat Edwards. Edwards fought on his homeland, was on a hype after beating Usman twice. And still lost to Belal. However I would still go with Shavkhat.  

P.S. This weekends Ngannou fights in PFL against a guy who is even bigger than Ngannou

Yeah we can't deny something like that not happening but I think as a comparison between Muhammad vs Rakhmonov and Usman vs Edwards, there's a higher possibility that Edwards would KO Usman than Muhammad KO'ing Rakhmonov.  Edwards is a good striker while Muhammad is a wrestler.  And Usman was showing some signs that he's low key chinny after that match up with Burns...  Burns knocked Usman down at the first round.

Weigh ins in 4 hours folks...

UFC Fight Night 245:  Hernandez vs Pereira Official Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkQoVAUu5r4

Who are you betting for?
I think this is like a match that will just add to Michel Pereira's winning streak. Well, both have a good winning streak in their last fights but the experience will be the difference. 31-11 for Pereira at 31 years of age and Hernandez at the same age as Pereira but with a low amount of battles.

I wish Hernandez hadn't partyed last night because it's his birthday. He will be energized without a doubt but the alcohol could also change your mentality and condition.
I am putting my money on Pereira on this match.

Mmm, I like Pereira but Hernandez is no joke.  If Hernandez could take Pereira down then he'll be in a whole lot of sht on the ground.  I know some guys would bring up Pereira's TD defense stat which is around 90% or something...  But really check the last 8 guys that he fought.  Just one grappler and that guy he KO'd in R1 so it doesn't really matter.

So yeah, I might be leaning on Pereira now but will be bet money on it..?  Prolly not.  Maybe 10 bucks for the lulz.  But again it'd be a waste of money.  If I wanna bet on an underdog, I'd rather wait for 308 and gamble on Holloway.

Here are the weigh in results.

Anthony Hernandez (185.5) vs Michel Pereira (185.5)
Rob Font (135.5) vs Kyler Phillips (135.5)
Charles Johnson (126) vs Su Mudaerji (126)
Jake Hadley (135.5) vs Cameron Smotherman (135.5)
Darren Elkins (144.5) vs Daniel Pineda (145.5)
Asu Almabayev (125.5) vs Matheus Nicolau (125.5)
Brad Katona (135.5) vs Jean Matsumoto (135.5)
Joselyne Edwards (139)* vs Tamires Vidal (135.5)
Jessica Penne (115.5) vs Elise Reed (115)
Alice Ardelean (115) vs Melissa Martinez (115.5)
Robelis Despaigne (264) vs Austen Lane (251)

*Missed weight

[Hirose UK]

~snip~

Previously Michel Pereira had pretty good 8-win streak but on the other hand Anthony Hernandez also had 5-win streak, Michel Pereira advantage lies in his experience and his strong kicks and locks.
Hernandez who has background in Muay Thai and wrestling can have longer endurance with more guaranteed power performance, but I predict Michel Pereira can win by KO even though in the end it all ended with an unexpected surprise where Hernandez got the win by KO.
This was really unexpected and Michel Pereira had to accept defeat after series of wins that he had achieved.

[TopTort777]

UFC 308



Date: October 26, 2024

Preliminary Card: SAT, OCT 26 / 5:00 PM GMT+3
Main Card: SAT, OCT 26 / 9:00 PM GMT+3

Venue: Etihad Arena

Main card (ESPN)
Featherweight: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
Middleweight: Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev            
Featherweight: Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige            
Light Heavyweight: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakić            
Middleweight: Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan      

Preliminary card (ESPN)
Welterweight: Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos            
Lightweight: Mateusz Rębecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai            
Bantamweight: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Daniel Santos            
Middleweight: Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira            
Bantamweight: Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo            
Middleweight: Ismail Naurdiev vs. Bruno Silva            
Welterweight: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Nursulton Ruziboev            
Light Heavyweight: Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_308

[tokeweed]

^  The bookies are giving nice odds for Holloway which is very tempting.  If Holloway could keep his distance from Topuria same as Volk did in R1 of their match then Holloway could win with the volume upside.  But dunno...  I was more confident with my Royval call than this one.

UFC 308:  Countdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfrUF74cDQc

~snip~

Previously Michel Pereira had pretty good 8-win streak but on the other hand Anthony Hernandez also had 5-win streak, Michel Pereira advantage lies in his experience and his strong kicks and locks.
Hernandez who has background in Muay Thai and wrestling can have longer endurance with more guaranteed power performance, but I predict Michel Pereira can win by KO even though in the end it all ended with an unexpected surprise where Hernandez got the win by KO.
This was really unexpected and Michel Pereira had to accept defeat after series of wins that he had achieved.

But was it all 'unexpected' tho..?  If you watched the match, it ended in one of the possibilities we discussed.  That if Hernandez could take Pereira down then Pereira will be in all kinds of trouble.  Hernandez could win via SUB or ground and pound him to oblivion...  And he did and won via ground and pound.  The guy is no joke.

[l99l]

Holloway turns on immortality mode when it comes to standing combat. Holloway has a bad record with Volkonovski, so bettors are very likely to turn to Topuria.
I liked this risk, it's clearly a bit high odds and it sounds good because it's Max.
I also like to follow İbo Aslan progress in the UFC, I will bet on him separately, I hope he continues his winning streak.

[cabron]

Holloway turns on immortality mode when it comes to standing combat. Holloway has a bad record with Volkonovski, so bettors are very likely to turn to Topuria.
I liked this risk, it's clearly a bit high odds and it sounds good because it's Max.
I also like to follow İbo Aslan progress in the UFC, I will bet on him separately, I hope he continues his winning streak.

Holloway is used to fighting tough guys and has never been KO'd but he can also KO Topuria. I think it's also worth taking that 3.15 bet on Holloway. Although Topuria is tough, Holloway could absorb his strikes just as he did with Volk. The odds are still not available, but it must be worth the wait. Holloway by KO might be 5.00.

If bettors leaning on Ilia, him winning by KO would be 2.20. These two are exchanging bible verses, an exciting fight to see.

[Hanadawa]

Holloway turns on immortality mode when it comes to standing combat. Holloway has a bad record with Volkonovski, so bettors are very likely to turn to Topuria.
I liked this risk, it's clearly a bit high odds and it sounds good because it's Max.

Even though Holloway has a bad record with Volk, it doesn't mean that Topuria can beat Holloway just because he won against Volk. What makes me support Holloway is because he is the best striker in UFC that I have ever known. Holloway's loss to Volk was via judges' scorecards so if he wants to beat Max I think Topuria has to be able to dominate Max with grappling or striking. Max's striking is absolutely insane. Even Justin Gaethje can be defeated via knockout. I think this fight is tougher for Topuria than his match with Volk.

[tokeweed]

Holloway turns on immortality mode when it comes to standing combat. Holloway has a bad record with Volkonovski, so bettors are very likely to turn to Topuria.
I liked this risk, it's clearly a bit high odds and it sounds good because it's Max.
I also like to follow İbo Aslan progress in the UFC, I will bet on him separately, I hope he continues his winning streak.

Holloway is used to fighting tough guys and has never been KO'd but he can also KO Topuria. I think it's also worth taking that 3.15 bet on Holloway. Although Topuria is tough, Holloway could absorb his strikes just as he did with Volk. The odds are still not available, but it must be worth the wait. Holloway by KO might be 5.00.

If bettors leaning on Ilia, him winning by KO would be 2.20. These two are exchanging bible verses, an exciting fight to see.

Uh if you're really betting on Holloway then there's no need to go on chasing for a better line by riding on the KO prop.  His line straight up is good enough...  At least that's what I think.  Topuria is a tough dude too and hasn't lost a match yet.  So how do we really know if Holloway could pull of a KO?

Anyway everybody should watch Volk vs Topuria again and closely watch R1.  If Holloway doesn't get finished and if he could just keep his distance, as I already said, he could win this one on volume.  No need to go toe to toe vs Topuria.

Here's jeremypwr's Multi Master...

UFC 308:  Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5514116.0

13. Ilia Topuria
12. Robert Whittaker
11. Dan Ige
10. Magomed Ankalaev
9. Shara Magomedov
8. Rafael dos Anjos
7. Myktybek Orolbai
6. Brunno Ferreira
5. Kennedy Nzechukwu
4. Farid Basharat
3. Rinat Fakhretdinov
2. Ismail Naurdiev
1. Ibo Aslan

But I feel like Holloway could win.  Hopefully the Abu Dhabi fans pour more money on Topria so that Holloway's line goes up some more.

[cabron]

Uh if you're really betting on Holloway then there's no need to go on chasing for a better line by riding on the KO prop.  His line straight up is good enough...  At least that's what I think.  Topuria is a tough dude too and hasn't lost a match yet.  So how do we really know if Holloway could pull of a KO?

Holloway ducks his way out of the combinations he has the chance. Since Holloway lasted Gaethje's hard punches then I can see he will win by decision if his chin still manages to hold up while Topuria throws 3-4 combi.

We don't really know if he could make it happen but if I am just to bet $5-10, I'd rather be choosing that KO for the thrills especially if Holloway by KO is 5.00. We shall find out if Topuria is still tough against someone more prepared, not on short notice.

What is risky for Holloway is for him to point down the mat again to stay in the middle, this is risky because Tuporia can find a way to hit the right spot on the chin.

[TopTort777]

Guys, dont forget, that Topuria has turned into hell of a knockout artist, and his striking skills people have started to discuss only when he has knocked out Volk. Before that, we only knew that he is able to put people down, when he often submit people. On the contrast we have Holloway, who has been known for knocking people and being master of punches for since-I-know-him Just dont overestimate Topuria striking with that Volk knockout. Dont focus only on that achievement. In fact, no one has managed to knock Max out. So why think that Topuria will be first to do that.

[tokeweed]

^  Yup.  Lol.  That's I was saying, Holloway's bet course of action is to keep his distance like what Volk did at R1.  Volk made a mistake and gave Topuria a chance to get near him and he paid for it.    And here's the thing...  The weight cut to 145.  I know Holloway hasn't had any problems before but could be more taxing for Holloway as he's kinda big for the weight class.

But yeah..  I like the line on Holloway but we'll see.  If it goes above 3.50, auto bet Holloway.    Even Ige at 3.10 looks tempting.

Here's the one where Volk got slept.

UFC Free Fight:  Volk vs Topuria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5TIENxxReI

[Hanadawa]

Guys, dont forget, that Topuria has turned into hell of a knockout artist, and his striking skills people have started to discuss only when he has knocked out Volk. Before that, we only knew that he is able to put people down, when he often submit people. On the contrast we have Holloway, who has been known for knocking people and being master of punches for since-I-know-him Just dont overestimate Topuria striking with that Volk knockout. Dont focus only on that achievement. In fact, no one has managed to knock Max out. So why think that Topuria will be first to do that.

As far as I know no one has ever knocked out Max. Topuria surprisingly knocked out Volk but I don't think he'll be able to do the same thing. Except for submissions, Max has faced many of the best strikers in the UFC and he's never slept. What Volk did was score a lot of points by landing punches that were devastating to Max. I bet Max would have won that fight. Topuria is a great fighter after convincingly beating Volk but it wasn't enough to beat Max. On the other hand I feel like Volk is a different fighter after his loss to Islam in their second fight.

[cabron]

Guys, dont forget, that Topuria has turned into hell of a knockout artist, and his striking skills people have started to discuss only when he has knocked out Volk. Before that, we only knew that he is able to put people down, when he often submit people. On the contrast we have Holloway, who has been known for knocking people and being master of punches for since-I-know-him Just dont overestimate Topuria striking with that Volk knockout. Dont focus only on that achievement. In fact, no one has managed to knock Max out. So why think that Topuria will be first to do that.

As far as I know no one has ever knocked out Max. Topuria surprisingly knocked out Volk but I don't think he'll be able to do the same thing. Except for submissions, Max has faced many of the best strikers in the UFC and he's never slept. What Volk did was score a lot of points by landing punches that were devastating to Max. I bet Max would have won that fight. Topuria is a great fighter after convincingly beating Volk but it wasn't enough to beat Max. On the other hand I feel like Volk is a different fighter after his loss to Islam in their second fight.

And that was also on short notice to fight Islam. Volk was knocked hard and kicked on his head, which affected him mentally thus the result.

What they see is that Volk won over Max because Max finds it hard to deal with fighters shorter than him but can get close also and throw overhand and Topuria can bring the fight to grappling at the same time. Comparing what Volk did against Max and what Topuria may do can make a bettor thinks Topuria really has the chance. So if Volk can do it, Topuria may also make it.

[l99l]

Uh if you're really betting on Holloway then there's no need to go on chasing for a better line by riding on the KO prop.  His line straight up is good enough...  At least that's what I think.  Topuria is a tough dude too and hasn't lost a match yet.  So how do we really know if Holloway could pull of a KO?

Holloway ducks his way out of the combinations he has the chance. Since Holloway lasted Gaethje's hard punches then I can see he will win by decision if his chin still manages to hold up while Topuria throws 3-4 combi.

We don't really know if he could make it happen but if I am just to bet $5-10, I'd rather be choosing that KO for the thrills especially if Holloway by KO is 5.00. We shall find out if Topuria is still tough against someone more prepared, not on short notice.

What is risky for Holloway is for him to point down the mat again to stay in the middle, this is risky because Tuporia can find a way to hit the right spot on the chin.

Such a bet was on my mind as well.
I definitely wouldn't take that risk with such a big amount of money anyway. 10-20 dollars for Max, KO. Dude, I won't hesitate and will put the bet there as this will increase my excitement even more.
I know what a knockout artist Topuria is, I know how he KO'd Volkanovski, after all it's a game, if Max hadn't finished Justin off like that I wouldn't have even taken this bet.

[pawel7777]

^  The bookies are giving nice odds for Holloway which is very tempting.  If Holloway could keep his distance from Topuria same as Volk did in R1 of their match then Holloway could win with the volume upside.

Yup. The odds for Holloway are more than decent. But I wouldn't put my money on him in that fight. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Max has ever faced a really good grappler before.

Full UFC 308 odds:

Fakhretdinov x1.40 vs Miranda x3.00
Naurdiev x1.60 vs Silva x2.33
Basharat x1.15 vs Hugo Silva x5.50
Nzechukwu x1.14 vs Barnett x5.66
Magomedov x1.70 vs Ferreira x2.16
Rebecki x3.50 vs Orolbay Uulu x1.32
Neal x1.32 vs Dos Anjos x3.40
Aslan x1.96 vs Cerqueira x1.84
Magomedov x1.60 vs Petrosyan x2.36
Murphy x1.37 vs Ige x3.00
Ankalaev x1.27 vs Rakic x3.75
Whittaker x3.10 vs Chimaev x1.40
Topuria x1.37 vs Holloway x3.10

Guys, dont forget, that Topuria has turned into hell of a knockout artist, and his striking skills people have started to discuss only when he has knocked out Volk. Before that, we only knew that he is able to put people down, when he often submit people. On the contrast we have Holloway, who has been known for knocking people and being master of punches for since-I-know-him Just dont overestimate Topuria striking with that Volk knockout. Dont focus only on that achievement. In fact, no one has managed to knock Max out. So why think that Topuria will be first to do that.

I'm almost certain Topuria will try to take it to the ground. He might engage in striking exchange initially, maybe even for the whole round 1 (if Max doesn't get a significant advantage) but will start shooting for takedowns after that.
His wrestling is really good as proved by him outclassing Bryce Mitchell (who is also a very solid wrestler himself). So I can't imagine he'll throw away his biggest advantage and would be content to play Max's game.