It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[stompix]

Yes, they are brand new with less than quarter the quality of the old gears at least based on my experience and everyone else that I know, I even had a whole topic advising people not to buy those gears.

I missed that topic somehow... That was not a thing about being sorry or feeling bad, I'm actually enraged seeing those pics, they delivered you a heap of junk!!! Yeah, nothing more to say, words can't always express all that's going on!

A new period, new start:

... between +0.6665% and +65.0772%

Luck is as always playing around with blocks so..place your bets!  

Corona-V  has hit the world's economy hard.  Dow Jones  Market is set to drop 1000 point today.

It is a mess.

Well in theory, but just in theory, a slowdown would mean less energy consumed, cheaper prices, (like what's happening in oil) so IF the coins price stays up or even grows a little, miners will be affected less than other parts of the economy.

My parents are in the agriculture business, for us cheap gas (for heating) and cheaper gas (for machines) is good, people will still have to eat, the loans are paid almost 90%..so probably I'll have to leave the city and become a country boy again.

[1714672881]

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[philipma1957]

huge drop on the Dow

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-tumble-on-fears-of-oil-price-war-2020-03-08?mod=american-petroleum-institute

huge drop in oil

https://oilprice.com/

gold is up

https://goldprice.org/

[mikeywith]

Yeah, nothing more to say, words can't always express all that's going on!

True, Bitmain is a piece of shit. That's the only thing I have to say.  

Corona-V  has hit the world's economy hard.  Dow Jones  Market is set to drop 1000 point today.

Well in theory, but just in theory, a slowdown would mean less energy consumed, cheaper prices, (like what's happening in oil) so IF the coins price stays up or even grows a little, miners will be affected less than other parts of the economy.

This proves my point even further, the stock market, forex, oil, and gold are all driven by somehow professionals who usually end up doing the "logical" thing be it the right or the wrong move, while mining is highly effected by immatures and newbies who have no clue about anything. in fact, if anything hash rate should actually collapse and not rise, with all the mess going on, bitcoin mining is at even at worse place than everything else, the mining rewards are due to be cut in half and yet these newbies keep on adding gears to the network.  

By the way, I still remember our discussion and how you overlooked the importance of China, there you have it now, everything is collapsing because when China coughs the world MUST listen and cough along.

[philipma1957]

... By the way, I still remember our discussion and how you overlooked the importance of China, there you have it now, everything is collapsing because when China coughs the world MUST listen and cough along.

Not sure of this conversation.  China 🇨🇳 is certainly a driving economic force in the Modern World.

Is this in reference to Trumps import tax war trying to beat China 🇨🇳.

BTW wall street  crashed so hard today they shut it down🥵

-7 % shut it down. and it was opened again moving to -5%.

[stompix]

By the way, I still remember our discussion and how you overlooked the importance of China, there you have it now, everything is collapsing because when China coughs the world MUST listen and cough along.

Yup, and since the Wuhan quarantine which happened in January nothing really that bad happened to the markets, and China is actually recovering right now! When did the shit hit the fan? On the last days when Europe was hit and the whole Lombardy was sealed up! And be fair, I was talking on the effect on Bitcoin, with the price being driven by the purchasing power, remember? Not the whole economy!  

Anyhow /let's not derail this, we're in Frodo's territory here

in fact, if anything hash rate should actually collapse and not rise, with all the mess going on, bitcoin mining is at even at worse place than everything else, the mining rewards are due to be cut in half and yet these newbies keep on adding gears to the network.  

Yeah, that would be logical, but also we don't know for sure how this rate is growing right now. It could be a lot of newbies, but I wouldn't be surprised it could simply be that farms are refitting their miners, it is also possible that bitmain has shipped a lot of new gear well before telling us they have a new miner, there might be some deals like that with other manufacturers also.

Yeah, a lot of newbies might be buying cloud contracts, but it's still 7%, that's a lot of gear that was already produced, and you don't just make those blindly..I think..assume..god knows really, that's why we're in speculation here.

One thing is clear, no matter what the current difficulty says in the first days, it's almost impossible for the grow to just stop now, the difficulty estimator went continuously up, 2% 4%, ended with 7%, and it is not going to stop unless something really bad happens, and that's one of my greatest fears. Thousands and thousands of miners that are thrown away or sold at price pe kg not hashrate.

[philipma1957]

Well this corona-v meltdown  of worldwide economy  is the first big meltdown since bitcoin hit the scene in 2009 .


last  super crash was 2008.

It has bitch slapped most everything but gold.


Dow closed at 23,800
BTC is at  7870

[philipma1957]

Diff has finally attempted to reflect some of the huge price drops.

We are down about 4.7%

Latest Block:   621210  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.2522%  (283 / 297.11 expected, 14.11 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16552923967337.23XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15846401874147 and 16362480949199
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.2683% and -1.1505%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 6:50 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 23, 2020 at 11:12 AM  (in 12d 2h 51m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 23, 2020 at 11:35 PM  (in 12d 15h 13m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 22m 19s and 14d 16h 44m 52s

[favebook]

I paid $1600 per unit direct from Bitmain in Aug 2016.

I know this is not a main focus of topic, but I just wanted to share my first order on official Bitmain website:



Also, I do not think that BTC price has hit the bottom for this month. However, I think it will rebound soon after another dump happens, and it will rebound hard, maybe it will even hit ATH of this year.

However, difficulty really is an odd thing, by no means does it use logic or anything close to it. However, I really hope for sake of difficulty that Antminer generation 19 will not be shipped before Jun.

[philipma1957]

As much as I hate to say it but these 7700-7800 levels will shake out a lot of miners.

The Dow Jones tanked again about 1000 points back down to 23,900  this is a 14 month low last reached in Jan of 2019.

It seems BTC is under price pressure bigly.

I wonder if bitmain will use s19 pro's in-house and clear out all their in house s17 and s17 pro gear.

[stompix]

One thing is clear, no matter what the current difficulty says in the first days, it's almost impossible for the grow to just stop now, the difficulty estimator went continuously up, 2% 4%, ended with 7%, and it is not going to stop unless something really bad happens...

As usual, it takes roughly 48 hours to make 99% of the predictions following bitcoin wrong! The moment I opened the difference estimator chart I was like, this is what you get for making predictions... Man, I feel stupid now  

... between -5.8174% and -1.7283%

It is still early, it's only 1.7 if we look at the minimum and it might be luck but this doesn't match any of the scenarios I put together earlier.. The only one that is still holding two droplets of water is the one with mining farms changing gear but........

The other sha256 coins don't look any better and their halving will be earlier,  putting temporarily even more pressure on BTC.Not good.

@philipma1957, are you still in the green after a halving with no price no diff change?

[Philipma1957cellphone]

... @philipma1957, are you still in the green after a halving with no price no diff change?

yes but barely.

[mikeywith]

As much as I hate to say it but these 7700-7800 levels will shake out a lot of miners.

I hate to see people lose money especially the newbies who probably invested all of their hard-earned money thinking mining is an easy way of making money, but they have to learn the hard way sadly.

It seems BTC is under price pressure bigly.

Everything except gold is, and BTC is no exception, the current nature of bitcoin does not make it a safe haven and most investors think of it as a high risk asset, and in situations like that one we have now, people will tend to sell it rather than buy it, I will not be surprised if bitcoin hits 3k again this year, and as I much as I hate to see that happen, I am well prepared for a similar scenario and I think everyone should be.

I wonder if bitmain will use s19 pro's in-house and clear out all their in house s17 and s17 pro gear.

My guess is that they will try to sell as many miners as they can, they will probably have to sell their BTC holdings in order to survive potentially severe market conditions.

[philipma1957]

Corona-v is causing huge price pressures.

Hang in there everyone.

diff is down over 7.2%

btc is 7600-7700

lastly dow jones market dropped to about 23,800

[citronick]

BTC just dipped BELOW 6k while I am typing this post.

Even my 6c hydro power wont save me now....

Should I hang on at least until halving?

[TheYankeesWin!]

I am going to try to keep mining. I bought some coin today at  6100.

[philipma1957]

We are still mining in Clifton.

A lot of miners must be hurting.

Resellers are going to get hurt 😞.

[wndsnb]

Numbers looking pretty bad, If price doesn't rebound we could see a big diff drop. Projected diff down around 5.5% at the moment.

On the bright side, we could see some sweet deals on s19s...

[philipma1957]

When there is this much hurt in the markets I can only say let coins drop to 5000 maybe even 4800.

Says nutty but crushing the price would be better then 5800 being the low.

[mikeywith]

Current status

Latest Block:   621360  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   94.0065%  (433 / 460.61 expected, 27.61 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16552923967337.23XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15611273350713 and 16178740273875
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.6887% and -2.2605%

However, in times like this, it makes no sense to look at the difficulty, it's wiser to keep an eye on the hashrate itself since it responds faster than the difficulty estimator.



https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days

The total hash rate dipped from 119 yesterday to 98 now, that is nearly a -17% drop, which of course does not have a ratio of 1:1 in respect to price, but in reality, a 17% drop (if it doesn't change) will bring us to at least 15% drop in difficulty and not just -5% as estimated, so assuming price lost 30% and difficulty will only go down by 15%, we talking about 2:1 ratio or 15% loss in fiat profit in the coming epoch, although I highly doubt that price is going to stop declining, maybe a little bit of correction and then we dip again, I hope I am wrong about this one.

[philipma1957]

No if you going to crash it crash the fuck out of smash and bash it.

Sound harsh but it is better to put a true hurt to it.

I will be shutting some s9's April 1
I had planned on shut down 3 of them.
I may shut down all 31 of them.

I have the better gear so I will be all right.

When I look at this I see 2 moves  way up or way down.

When markets head way down there is always good opportunity to buy in.

When markets head way up there is always good opportunity to sell off.