It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

I am turning off 200th-300th in s9's tomorrow.

I am turning them on in 7 days when the diff drops 10-15 %

I save  1 week  of power  and I then earn   10-15%  more coin for 2 weeks after the diff change.

This idea works if  coins run  4-6k prices.

I earn more money this way. When I take the power costs to account.

I am happy we have
27 s9's to turn off  they do about 300th

all this below will run

15 s17 pros
  1 s17
  2 t17
  2 t17e
  1 t17+     missing a board
  1 s15
  1 t15
  1 s7ln    missing 2 board will turn this off lose 2th

2 m10    missing 1 board
2 m20s  missing 2 boards
1 m21s

2 a1041
2 a1066
1 a741   will turn this off  lose 7th

t2t24
t3t39
t3t50

we will drop about 310th

but still run over 1600th

Still going to run

11gh of LTC  as they are low power and earn better then an s9 now.

I can run 2 L3+  at 1500 watts and they earn  $1.62 in LTC  it also earns some doge maybe 20 cents

I can run 1 s9i   at 1200 watts and it earns  $1.12

So  1.82  vs  1.12  for an extra 300 watts.

this will flatten a bit once  btc diff drops.

Ltc diff adjust ment came faster  and has had a strong drop 6.2 to 5.1

BTC  will do 16.6 to 14.9  but 7 more days.

[1714687482]

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[mikeywith]

I am turning off 200th-300th in s9's tomorrow.

Thanks for lowering the difficulty  , jokes aside, you are probably making the best move, mining with S9s at anything above 3 cents per kWh is now a loss, in fact even at 3 cents it makes about 24 cents a day, say you pay 4% for PPS+ pool ( i reckon you use viabtc) the daily fees would be close to 4 cents, so that's barely profitable but can still do.

For the current diff, you need bitcoin price to be at $5900 to break even at 4 per kWh cents and, $7300 for 5 cents per kWh, if we do get a 15% drop in diff next week, the numbers change to  $5000 for 4 cents per kWh , $6250 for 5 cents per kWh and $7500 for 6 cents per kWh to break even.

The above is based on 13 BTC block reward+fees  and power consumption of 1250W for 13.5TH, if your gears run more efficiently than that, the numbers will change.

[citronick]

sigh.....

I am also turning off 30 x 30TH miners in the next few days - hosted in China - anybody with rich blood wants to take over?

BTW.... renting your SHA256 ASICs at Nicehash seems to be getting better payout.

[philipma1957]

yeah nice hash is up to about 0.175   which is well over the 0.151 true number.

[mikeywith]

BTW.... renting your SHA256 ASICs at Nicehash seems to be getting better payout.

That's really a temporary thing, hard to follow "manually", using auto profit switching like the one in Awoesomeminer may help you squeeze the most of these revenue variances, doing it manually might cause you to actually lose profit.



The above is based on 7 days average, it does show that Nicehash yields better rewards, it also shows a shitcoin that outperformed everything else, if you make the same calculation 2 days later, things will be different, it's just like queuing in one lane, watching the other lane moving faster, you move to the other lane and suddenly your previous lane moves faster, also Nicehash switching difficulty constantly, I have no technical explanations to support this, but I lost a few gears mining to Nicehash and I am sure a few others can relate.

[stompix]

Bitdeer has slashed prices on the s19 by 10% per TH/day, compared to March 15th. No change in the electricity fee.
Also slashed prices on the s17 series which are almost sold out.
Pretty sure as philipma1957 mentioned in reality it's possible those are actually s19 mining and they charge you extra, I would be surprised if it isn't like that.

-11.9627% and -10.0452%

Price is somewhat stable, no good news on the horizon so maybe indeed -15% and then a smaller one.

I'm really concerned what happens to the gear that gets turned off, right now there is enough gear not mining to launch not a 51% but a 300% attack on bcash.

[philipma1957]

Well there is zero  transparency  about the over site on this issue.
No one inspects and makes a report that verifies they use a s17pro on an s17 pro contract.
I would love to see some documents that reference the accounting checks and balances to make sure customers are not being cheated.

I remind all that under these hard times bitmain has zero incentive to sell the gear to us. As leasing it on bitdeer is a nobrainer for them.  They have the we can fuck you over anytime we choose to in the leasing contracts clause. So buying into a lease from bitdeer is loaning  bitmain money on terms that favor them.

[mikeywith]

I am on the same page with you guys, the thing I don't understand about Bitmain is the fact that they don't lower the gear prices, bitcoin price at 10k they list Antminer S17+ for 1500++, bitcoin price drops 50%, they don't care, bitcoin price increases > they increase the gear prices, I can only think of two scenarios:

1- There are enough newbies who are willing to pay that much for a gear to be received around the halving
2- The manufacturing cost of those gears is really high and there isn't much room for any discount, they want to wait for prices to rebound and demand on gears to escalate.

[philipma1957]

Some bounce back in price.


BTC is now 6200
BCH is now  223

Diff is still -12%

I think the smart investor is asking " do I want 1 million in princess cruise line stock or do I want 1 million in BTC?"

There are a lot of billionaires I think 1200 of them world wide.

Edit 2100 if wiki is correct.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires

If you are one of them cool.

But most of us are not.
If I was giving advice to any of them I would ask the question I bolded.

It is rhetorical question  As there are a lot of companies I don't want stock in.Not just Princess cruises.

I smell a btc rise coming.

[HagssFIN]

I've seen the news and they say that things are slowly getting better in China.

Maybe that also plays part in the btc price rising.

[philipma1957]

Yep  and there are a lot of big money asians. Past the corona-v issue and trying to figure where to park their money.

Hey If I had stock in Disney, Hilton , Princess Cruise lines.  I would move it out and park it somewhere  as all those types of industries well get hit hard with worldwide curfews.

Air line stocks would be on my hit list.   So a BTC resting spot along with a cash resting spot make sense.  Or a lot  more sense then those stocks mentioned.

Logically BTC looks very good right now.  We will see a nice Diff drop in 3 days.  I hope to see coins rebound nicely as all those service companies scramble about for the next two months.

ltc  diff has moved from 6.36 to 5.15 to  4.86  this is a 23% drop in total.

btc diff is set to drop 12-13% price is 6200.

[mikeywith]

I've seen the news and they say that things are slowly getting better in China.

Maybe that also plays part in the btc price rising.

China had 0 new cases today, 0 deaths and out of all 80,928 infected people 70,420 of them recovered and only 3,245 total deaths, on the other hand, Italy alone had 5,322 new cases today and 427 deaths, the total death cases is 3,405 which is actually higher than that in China despite the number of infected people.

The death rate in China = 4% , Italy = 8.2%, the Chinese did a great job fighting the virus, I highly doubt any other country would have done better and the proof is despite China being hit first, it has a pretty low death rate and now it's has the slowest growth as far as infected people are concerned.

The above adds more strength to your theory and Phill's, so Chinese investors are now ready to invest again, but in what? do they buy a cheap U.S stock? invest in medical research? buy more gold? cheap oil? or maybe they don't think the issue is over and still aren't willing to risk much? we also know the Federal bank has been printing billions of $ out of thin air the past couple days which might also have to do with the last bitcoin price spikes.

To me, the way I see it is that risk-takers are trying to get what they think of as cheap bitcoin thinking the bottom is in, the virus is getting the best of the word's economy and we are unlikely going to recover, selling pressure will start pretty soon and we may very likely make a new lower low.

... We will see a nice Diff drop in 3 days.

More like 6 days I would guess, we are 212 blocks behind and it's getting slower, we have 708 blocks to mine, there is no way we can do that in 3 days, 5 days will be the fastest I would wish for, but that will mean less diff drop anyway.

[philipma1957]

... To me, the way I see it is that risk-takers are trying to get what they think of as cheap bitcoin thinking the bottom is in, the virus is getting the best of the word's economy and we are unlikely going to recover, selling pressure will start pretty soon and we may very likely make a new lower low...

yeah meant six not 3 days.

Travel 🧭
Leisure
Restaurants
Airplanes
Cruises

Make up a large segment of money earning.
No movie ticket sales
No Bars
No concerts.

If I shifted a million from princess cruise lines.
yeah maybe  some medical stocks.
but btc is a natural at self isolation.
I can create it all by myself.
I can safe keep it all by myself.
I can send it from the USA 🇺🇸 to China 🇨🇳 all by my self.

Safe from any viruses 🦠

Me like this.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

I know we are in a diff topic here but the drop in hashrate seems to be confirming what I was thinking about the current economic situation that's playing out around the world and the effects this could play on bitcoin and mining with the drop coming quickly I feel we will see more of the larger farms switch off there miners I know we now have the price back up to a higher level but this could also be a  fake out to get a higher price for some of the coins that we know are locked up in china be that pools or exchanges or by the large scale miners.



If we see hyper inflation in the money system I fear  we will see many of the exchanges and other liquidity providers to the market leave and fast this could in turn cause the market to react badly.

While the small miners may have a comeback to keep things going I think we could see the good old days of P2P trading come back into play here but we could lose a lot of retail trading which in turn would cause the price to sink back.  I also think for quite  some time bitcoin has been very very over priced in the market and us who have been around over the years should have secured some liquidity to keep us going.

What are your thoughts on the downturn in hashrate and do you think China could play a massive roll in the downturn of bitcoin in general now.

Magic

[philipma1957]

well lets face it.  first off none of us know if this will be a 1918/1919 spanish flu pandemic or worse.

Things become complex if the kill rate gets really high.  No matter what country you live in or what side you are on left right capitalist socialist no one likes friends and loved ones dying off.

So you get multiple levels of :

2 billion ill 40 million dead

all the way down to

10 million ill 100000 dead.

and anything in-between.

For me to say  I know how bad the illness will be I have no real clue.

For me to say maybe me and my wife already caught it around new years eve due to the 10 boxes of miners that came to the house from dec 6 to jan 6 Maybe.

Packages were in china   and then in my house in under 36 hours a few times.

For me to argue right now the world has no known antibody test for us to take and this costs all of us $$$ is true.

For instance lets say me and my wife had it along with 100000 others in New Jersey USA  that is 100,000 people that should not be told to stay home.

Yet  no one mentions an antibody test being developed why?  The value of this test is huge.

To be clear this is for infected unknowns that got better.   If 1 billion people are like this all of them do not need a quarantine. This should be talked about all over the world.

I can bes tested to see if I had the measles and lots of other viruses why not this one.  Do you live in China did you get sick in Nov or Dec and get better on your own?  If so and it was corona-v no quarantine needed for you.

This is a big deal yet not much time is spent on this discussion .

We will soon see what is up with the world wide quarantines it may turn out to be not so bad .  I hope so.  Then back to mining and wondering about the difficulty

[mikeywith]

What are your thoughts on the downturn in hashrate and do you think China could play a massive roll in the downturn of bitcoin in general now.

The drop may seem like a lot, but if you compare it to the very near past you can see a few interesting stuff.



https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-price-btc.html#6m

dashed-line = price
line = hashrate

We are now at 85E diff and 6.2k price, the last time we had this hashrate was 3 months ago, Dec of 2019, the price was 7.2k, the only difference now is that more efficient gears are in the game and prices don't seem to be stable nor going to the upside, so it's very likely that we see more decline in the hashrate, with just 52 days to the halving it's highly unlikely that we go up from here, there may be a few newbies or risk-takers who will join now, but I guess those will hardly maintain the current hashrate, let alone taking it to a higher level.

I think China will play a major rule in the recovery of the market and not the opposite, China has officially defeated the spread of the Coronavirus and they seem to be slowly returning to business, this is what the numbers suggest and my Chinese friends also confirmed it, so China was the first the to get into trouble and the first to come out, I am counting big time on the Chinese to actually lead the recovery, I hope other countries manage to defeat the virus as fast, that will not only save the economy but will save a lot of lives.

Phill, we are right at what I expected 6 days ago.

Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.5874% and -13.5868%

[philipma1957]

Well

Latest Block:   622433  (23 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   85.0768%  (1506 / 1770.16 expected, 264.16 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16552923967337.23XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 14094554049391 and 14229801991687
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.8516% and -14.0345%
Previous Retarget:   March 9, 2020 at 6:50 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 2:00 PM  (in 4d 0h 8m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 5:46 PM  (in 4d 3h 54m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 7h 9m 55s and 16d 10h 56m 13s

a drop in hash of 15%  a drop in price to 6073

means  diff may have caught up or not.  It depends on what you think this coin is really worth.

But give me a choice of  1,000,000 in BTC at 6073   vs 1,000,000 in princess cruise line stock.  I would pick  the BTC

So the real issue for btc price is how the big boys think it protects  their wealth.

There are so many bad business models subject to interruption  from a pandemic.

BTC  is not  that subject to a pandemic based interruption.

My 2ph 11gh mine can be run by 1 person alone and self isolated  it earns about 1 btc a month.

[wndsnb]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get another drop next epoch as well. I think the media here (USA) is over-hyping the virus, but if half of what I'm reading is true then we will be dealing with the fallout of the virus for a long time.  Some studies have shown the R0 of the virus is between 2 and 3, which means it is way more contagious than the flu and all the measures going into place are only going to slow down the spread, not prevent it. Some experts are saying it is likely 60% of the world population will get infected before we're done with it.

China reporting 0 new cases ... people really believe that? I don't believe any information coming from the Chinese government is credible. Just read an article that says 21 million cell phone accounts were canceled in China in the last 3 months, and it suggests that way way way more (like 1000X more) people have died from the virus in China than they have reported. I really feel for the Chinese people, they are paying the largest price for their government's complete and total fuck-up of the handling of the virus.

[philipma1957]

Yeah if you look at Chinese numbers and Italy numbers something is wrong.
So
A) china is lying
B) italy is lying
C) China has great medical
D) italy has terrible medical

E) China has a vaccine and vaccinated most of the people in china thus they have great numbers

F)  something I missed.

Not liking letter e very much.

Below needs research.

Oh trump's import tariff war is a very likely cause of mask shortages in the USA.
As companies may have been doing multiple small orders to beat the 25% tax.

I order miners one at at time to beat trump tax legally.  I wonder if people did smaller mask orders  last year to beat the trump tax.

Anyone want to research if masks were subject to import taxes.

What does this translate to diff wise.  a 13-14% drop in 3 days.  I predict a 5-7% drop next jump

if prices stay in 5000-6500 range.

[favebook]

F) China has great discipline. They closed everything, went full quarantine for few weeks and isolated the virus. That being said, Italy is getting stomped by virus and they are still not cancelling their Bus/Metro transportation let alone thinking about full lock-down.

Meanwhile even in Serbia (with much less cases of Corona), we are only able to move out of house between 5 AM and 5 PM and all transportation is cancelled, all borders are locked and there is no import/export unless it is extremely necessary. As of next week, we might be in full quarantine (no moving out of house) and that will not be fun at all.