It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[alh]

The surge in coin price appears to have evaporated: $8471 now.

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[philipma1957]

The surge in coin price appears to have evaporated: $8471 now.

yeah and 1/2 ing in 259 blocks

for mining the 8471 is like 4235 ugh

[vickersja]

So this is my first halving as a miner.  Is this what I can expect while mining bitcoin?

Halving occurs
Rewards cut in half in pools
Miners turn off equipment
Difficulty drops
Mining rewards are less but become more frequent

Understanding this is an oversimplification, but is this what I can expect?

Also wondering if sites like Nicehash will be more profitable to point my gear to instead of pools.  At least until difficulty drops down.

[philipma1957]

No , maybe, yes

That has been true for different 1/2 ings

And remember covid-19 is a completely new wrinkle.

What has never happened at a 1/2 ing for btc is a severe drop in hashing. or difficulty.
but it did happen with the LTC 1/2 ing last summer.
it did happen with other coins.

I suspect it is going to happen with btc.

a 20% hash rate drop is in the cards.
a 20% coin price rise to a stable 10-11k is not as likely.

this is a 2-4 month time guess
I am more certain of the hashrate drop to a diff of 12 or 11

then I am of a stable 11k coin.

[Searing]

well...was this just something of a whale dump in order to take advantage of Coinbase crash? or Is it something as simple on how a big miner (or group) is trying to slam down and get out other miners to capitulate before halving to get more mining control. Like Bitmain mined at a loss for 3 months to try the BCH pump/dump scam?

lastly, hell...we may find out that BTC/Crypto prices are a  'precursor' to the Stock Market Dumping big time due to more reality of Covid-19 Pandemic....BTC/Crypto seems to drop dramatically in price ..just before the Stock Market dumps etc, probably because BTC/Crypto is ahead of such curves in that has 24/7 trading.

We will see. Chump or Champ. Moon or Doom. Boom or Bust

BTC/Crypto: Always Drama!

Brad

[philipma1957]

½ ing is under 155 blocks so monday at 5pm eastern standard time it as good a guess as any.

We are creeping up in diff +3.9%

price sucks about 8701  which is brutal for us miners.

My bread and butter is the 15 s17 pros they do 38 watts a th or about 53kwatts a day they will earn 4.08 a day before power


3 cent 1.62    2.46 profit
4 cent 2.16    1.92 profit
5 cent 2.70    1.38 profit
6 cent 3.24      .84 profit

so most gear is worse then the s17pro

and the s19 the s19pro or not coming for months

blood in the water coming up.

[mikeywith]

Mining rewards are less but become more frequent...

Not sure this is the best way to describe it, the will be no "more frequent" rewards, the frequency of the rewards is always the same, the amount will be less unless 50% of miners leave the game which will never happen, so overall the halving is a bad thing for us miners, it doesn't matter how you try to look at it, deflation "should" cause the price of bitcoin to rise, but there is no guarantee in that.

... but is this what I can expect?

expect a 50% drop in rewards, and 25% in difficulty ( roughly), so this means you will get -25% less rewards post halving, sad times indeed but we got to get through them.

Also wondering if sites like Nicehash will be more profitable to point my gear to instead of pools.  At least until difficulty drops down.

If this was a smaller coin halving, I would say yes, NH will most likely be better, but this is BTC, it has over 95% of the Sha256 hasharate, so there could still be a small potential profit in NH but nothing major I would say, although the better question is should you stay on PPLNS pool or move to PPS, that would be an interesting topic to speculate.

[vapourminer]

We will see. Chump or Champ. Moon or Doom. Boom or Bust

well i always said i would ride this pig either to the moon or till it hit the the ground so hard and made a crater so big a new sea will be named after it.

BTC/Crypto: Always Drama!

halfing. covid-19. bitmain internal civil war. multiple economies in the toilet. burrr machines running at such high speeds it was never before though possible.

this is next level drama. need more than just popcorn this time around. perhaps we need popcorn to be stockpiled in our strategic reserve. should be plenty of room as currently its pretty empty.

EDIT: in previous btc halfings was there ever such a potential drop of hash rate vs price when hash power could actually go somewhere else (bch/bsv)?

1st halfing was gpu/fpga/asic transition, 2nd halfing was asic to a better asic (process shrinks were still happening regularly). this time around process has matured to the point near state of the art and bitmain is holding all the aces and wont let anyone play with them.

is that more or less the situation (pardon my memory of history)? cuz if so this does set up some pain.

apologies for ignorant questions and/or errors in my thinking; i stopped btc mining around the BFL dumpster fire time.

[philipma1957]

49 blocks left to the 1/2 ing

At the moment project difficulty is at an all Time high

of 16.7 to 17.0

If we close at a new diff of 17.0 and a price of 8888.88

a 50 th s17pro would drop to 3.35 usd a day pre power cost  if set to normal. It would use 46 kwatts per day

it nets : -------------------------currently nets

2.89 at 1 cent ------------------  6.24
2.43 at 2 cent ------------------  5.78
1.97 at 3 cent ------------------  5.32
1.51 at 4 cent ------------------  4.86
1.05 at 5 cent ------------------  4.40
  .59 at 6 cent ------------------  3.94
  .13 at 7 cent ------------------  3.48

-.37 at 8 cents ------------------ 3.02

that is brutal since that is the most efficient miner

a 50 watt miner 50 th miner vs 38 watts 50th for the s17pro uses 60 kwatts

same 3.35 for free power

2.75 for 1 cent power
2.15 for 2 cent power
1.55 for 3 cent power
 .95 for 4 cent power
 .35 for 5 cent power

-.25 cents for six cent power

I suspect the network is at 60 watts

so a 60 watt 50 th is 72 kwatts a day

same 3.35 for free power

2.63 for 1 cent power
1.91 for 2 cent power
1.19 for 3 cent power
  .47 for 4 cent power
-.25 for 5 cent power

so a 100 s17pro farm at 4 cent power earns 440 usd a day in a few hours it drops to 105 usd a day

now take the following into account it was a small farm and like my setup runs in a place that does other shit.  So no building overhead. No worker overhead since the guy owning it does it himself or has another worker check it once in a while.

This guy can survive.

turn it into a dedicated business and the build is more over head. this miner will struggle.

Oh one more thing in both cases gear is fully paid off.  These small-middle size guys will survive.

Make it a 1000 machine farm with 1 or 2 worker over head build overhead and debt they will be in a lot of trouble.
Make it a 10000 machine farm wit 3-5 workers and high leverage they will fold.

In all cases I am using a farm with all s17pros.

[stompix]

Blockchain says:

Summary of bitcoin statistics for the previous 24 hour period.
Blocks Mined   178
Time Between Blocks   7.23 minutes

Is this really just random or somebody added some serious mining power? And if the second, where could have this come from? Bitmain shipping? Speaking of the devil, they say the s19pro batch shipping in July is sold out...

Anyhow just a little more and were at:

... between +4.3774% and +6.0926%

so the drop will not really be reflected in the next adjustment, probably the average for the next 3-500 blocks will be a better indicator.

so a 100 s17pro farm at 4 cent power earns 440 usd a day in a few hours it drops to 105 usd a day

A 100k investment will generate 3k a month, yeah, sounds like a good plan, 3 years of trying to make a ROI, while praying nothing breaks. This is starting to look like the shale oil business.

[philipma1957]

people are simply maximizing hash rate for the next 40 blocks.

it does let you know how much is offline as most is back up running.

yeah i am doing s17pro as s19pro is not widely available.

s19pro is a disaster 2600 plus shipping plus import taxes

for 29 watts vs 38 watts a th.   and wait for 2 months.

the next 30 days will be brutal.

[jbillk]

This will be interesting, ill be taking all my miners offline after the last 12.5 block. Great time for maintenance.

I'll gradually bring the most efficient back online if the profitability is there. Hopefully after the difficulty adjustment ill have them all running again.

My S9s are definitely going in storage today.

[philipma1957]

This will be interesting, ill be taking all my miners offline after the last 12.5 block. Great time for maintenance.

I'll gradually bring the most efficient back online if the profitability is there. Hopefully after the difficulty adjustment ill have them all running again.

My S9s are definitely going in storage today.

if you have some room to store them it makes sense.

a hot shit coin could pop up on nicehash like it did a month ago.

or BTC could rally.

we are going to turn off 310 th in s9's

make some into space heaters and sell them.

I can make 11 space heaters.  I will hold 17 s9's in storage.

the rest we will store in case of a price rally.

WE will mine with the rest of the gear.

[jbillk]

I can make 11 space heaters.  I will hold 17 s9's in storage.

I find you can make decent profits flipping the S9s with hobby, or entry level miners. I buy them when nobody wants them, and resell them locally when we get a decent price run up/FOMO.

If BTC runs up to ATH again they could be worth decent penny. Especially when new miners sell out everywhere. I've done this on the last 3 price surges. They are a easy sell because of the 120V, 1200W rating. Standard 15A circuit.

[philipma1957]

The space heaters are really quite nice.

300 watts 3.3th.  and super quiet with lessor fans

we are below 25 blocks to the 1/2 ing.  I will be picking fans up and s9's on may 13 th.

[alh]

Looks like it happened. I personally didn't feel anything but my minuscule mining operation has been off for months ($.10 power cost). Interesting to see what happens from here. If miners behave rationally, we should expect to see lengthening block solve times as hash rate disappears over the next week or so.

[mikeywith]

I did some calculations with the current figures :

If you have 3 cents per kwh, you make 11 cents a day with an S9, that's more like break-even, anything above 3 cents is a no go with the S9, and most people don't have that cheap rate so unless something unusual happens these S9s will be selling for 20-30$ with PSU.

The Breakeven for S11 is 4 cents.
The Breakeven for S15 is 5 cents.
The Breakeven for T17 is 6 cents.


Without proper tuning, and a drop in difficulty/ BTC price rising, any gear that is either equality efficient or less efficient compared to T17 will be in trouble, but a drop in difficulty is more than likely, but that won't last long, it's only a matter of a few months until the M30s and S19s kick the T17 out of the game as well, I am assuming that the average rate for miners is 6 cents per KWh, so if you don't want to count on the price to save you by going to much higher numbers, and you own any of those gears, it's probably a good time to re-think your options before it's too late.

Stay strong fellow miners.

[stompix]

Blockchain says:

Summary of bitcoin statistics for the previous 24 hour period.
Blocks Mined   178
Time Between Blocks   7.23 minutes

Well, it was expected:

Blocks Mined   141   
Time Between Blocks   9.25 minutes

Blocks after 630 000 have an average ~12 mins between them, way too early (only 40 blocks mined)  to toss numbers around but it's going to hurt.
The mempool is also pretty empty, just 16k transactions so far for now we won't be having any spikes in fees yet, let's see what happens when it hits 12GMT, that's usually the time when tx start picking up again, price is flat....happy halving!  

I think there should be a change at least for a week, from Hodl to Mine!  

[mikeywith]

Blocks after 630 000 have an average ~12 mins between them...

Where did you get this data from?

Below is the timestamps of blocks

526591 to 630172

Code:

2020-05-13 00:19
2020-05-13 00:06
2020-05-13 00:00
2020-05-12 23:55
2020-05-12 23:53
2020-05-12 23:45
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2020-05-12 23:09
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2020-05-12 19:59
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2020-05-12 01:57
2020-05-12 01:44
2020-05-12 00:57
2020-05-12 00:46
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2020-05-12 00:04
2020-05-12 00:00
2020-05-11 23:55
2020-05-11 23:41
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2018-06-08 14:52

blockchair.com

The average time (Ignoring seconds since blockchair.com doesn't show them) is exactly 10 minutes, which explains exactly why https://diff.cryptothis.com/ still shows

Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.7027% and +4.4993%

Almost the exact same figures prior to the halving, so we were mining 3-4% more blocks, and now we are back to the normal hashrate of where we started this epoch, in plain English, no drop in hashrate yet, which is freaking strange.

I checked the Chinese market to see if re-sellers are dropping gear prices and found out that nothing has changed,they seem to be selling well at pre-halving prices!, hashrate isn't going anywhere despite a whopping 50% reduction in rewards, which makes me think that someone with a lot of money and a very very good power deal is powering up a ton of mining gears so whatever hashrate leaves it gets replaced instantly and that's why we didn't fall off the cliff.

This is BAD news to the average joe with average power rate, those who were counting on a difficulty drop and/or increase in price are now doomed, with the current results the average joe with 6 cents per kwh or above can only make a profit ( a tiny one) with S17's efficiency or better, even T17 isn't profitable anymore at these prices, I think the rules of the mining game might be changed forever after this halving, those who have no access to pretty cheap power rate can no longer compete with the regular gears, what else can they do? pay $2000 for S19 to receive it 4 months later?

[philipma1957]

They are all in an overly optimistic la la land as buying gear at current prices only makes sense with free power.

If you have free power you can still buy s9's as they are cheap enough. 14 th with free power earns about 1 dollar a day.  So in 90 days you have 90 bucks.

the s9 for under 100 with a power supply  is easy to do now.

the t17+ is 950 or so and makes 4.30 a day so in 90 days you have  387 which is no where near 950

the s19pro in china is around 2300 it makes. 8.14 a day in 90 days it is 732. which does not touch 2300 or even 2000.  and this is if you have free power.

buying gear at these prices is senseless even if you have free power.

BCH and BSV. are between 7.2 and 7.4 cents a th so they are not picking up the slack for BTC.