It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[stompix]

Where did you get this data from?

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/630000
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/630040

My data was fresh after the halving and I was looking only at the last 40 blocks (that many were mined by that time)

Code:

630040	2020-05-12 03:08
630039	2020-05-12 03:01
630038	2020-05-12 03:00
630037	2020-05-12 02:51
630036	2020-05-12 02:36
630035	2020-05-12 02:23
630034	2020-05-12 02:12
630033	2020-05-12 02:11
630032	2020-05-12 02:04
630031	2020-05-12 02:02
630030	2020-05-12 01:57
630029	2020-05-12 01:44
630028	2020-05-12 00:57
630027	2020-05-12 00:46
630026	2020-05-12 00:20
630025	2020-05-12 00:04
630024	2020-05-12 00:00
630023	2020-05-11 23:55
630022	2020-05-11 23:41
630021	2020-05-11 23:24
630020	2020-05-11 23:07
630019	2020-05-11 22:49
630018	2020-05-11 22:45
630017	2020-05-11 22:20
630016	2020-05-11 22:19
630015	2020-05-11 22:14
630014	2020-05-11 22:11
630013	2020-05-11 21:49
630012	2020-05-11 21:38
630011	2020-05-11 21:38
630010	2020-05-11 21:21
630009	2020-05-11 21:09
630008	2020-05-11 21:09
630007	2020-05-11 21:08
630006	2020-05-11 21:06
630005	2020-05-11 20:47
630004	2020-05-11 20:37
630003	2020-05-11 20:30
630002	2020-05-11 20:30
630001	2020-05-11 20:02
630000	2020-05-11 19:23

Between 19:23 and 3:08 there are 7 hours 45 minutes,  465 mins/40 11.6/Block. Seems like I was right in being wrong, way too early to consider anything, and early enough to be totally wrong  

in plain English, no drop in hashrate yet, which is freaking strange.

I checked the Chinese market to see if re-sellers are dropping gear prices and found out that nothing has changed,they seem to be selling well at pre-halving prices!, hashrate isn't going anywhere despite a whopping 50% reduction in rewards, which makes me think that someone with a lot of money and a very very good power deal is powering up a ton of mining gears so whatever hashrate leaves it gets replaced instantly and that's why we didn't fall off the cliff.

Indeed, you really can't explain this unless we touch a little bit of conspiracy theory, with somebody that keeps adding miners at exactly the right time. Since that hash rate isn't coming from BCH which was also pretty low and is growing also, somebody is plugging miners at an insane rate. Somebody who has ton of gear available and cheap electricity...Bitdeer?

I think the rules of the mining game might be changed forever after this halving, those who have no access to pretty cheap power rate can no longer compete with the regular gears, what else can they do? pay $2000 for S19 to receive it 4 months later?

We can look at it as a mature business, tight margins, every cent counts, you need to cut expenses drastically, you're tied to low energy places, yeah, a lot like the shale gas industry, and the average Joe is ****. But the average Joe has an ace up his sleeve, average Joe is not alone, there are tens and hundreds of thousands of them, so if we return to mining as a hobby and doing this at a loss of a few $ per month the big fams are doomed. But that's wishful thinking, unfortunately.

[1714701941]

1714701941

[1714701941]

1714701941

[philipma1957]

okay lets say bitdeer has literally 30% of the hash.

if there is 120eh 30% is 36eh

if they add  6 eh

they jump the network 5%

and they then have

42/126 which is. 33% of the network.

so they lose as they went from

30% to 33% of coins a gain of 3 %

but the cost was jumping the diff 5%

I see a huge diff  crash if coins dont jump up in price bigly.

maybe i am wrong never know.

[mikeywith]

I had a little discussion with some guys on telegram, and someone pointed out something very interesting, a bit obvious but completely forgotten, many large scale miners mine on contacts, they pay the bill upfront, while the contract is still valid, they would mine on even at what we call a loss, because to them that is not exactly a"loss", and they can't avoid it anyway.

With that being said, it's safe to assume that a good portion of the low-efficiency miners are still on, this also explains why we don't see people flooding the market with those gears, everyone seems to be calm, nobody is rushing to sell anything, so it's either you are stuck in a contract or refusing to give up and hope that the others will leave and you become profitable, so things right now could be pointing to the fact that phill is right, without a huge spike in the price we will drop badly, but I don't think that will happen overnight anymore, it will be like walking down the stairs, farm x shuts down after tomorrow, farm y three days later and so on, the process might take a few weeks to get us to that 15-30% drop in hashrate.

[favebook]

I had a little discussion with some guys on telegram, and someone pointed out something very interesting, a bit obvious but completely forgotten, many large scale miners mine on contacts, they pay the bill upfront, while the contract is still valid, they would mine on even at what we call a loss, because to them that is not exactly a"loss", and they can't avoid it anyway.

With that being said, it's safe to assume that a good portion of the low-efficiency miners are still on, this also explains why we don't see people flooding the market with those gears, everyone seems to be calm, nobody is rushing to sell anything, so it's either you are stuck in a contract or refusing to give up and hope that the others will leave and you become profitable, so things right now could be pointing to the fact that phill is right, without a huge spike in the price we will drop badly, but I don't think that will happen overnight anymore, it will be like walking down the stairs, farm x shuts down after tomorrow, farm y three days later and so on, the process might take a few weeks to get us to that 15-30% drop in hashrate.

THIS!

Also, do not forget that there is at least 10% or even more miners that do not even know what halving is and will notice their rewards drop only after a few days/weeks/months.

I wasn't expecting any diff drop for first epoch tbh. But in June, oh hell, we will fall off a cliff with diff, quote me on this.

[alh]

One small thing to remember: Difficulty falls more slowly than it rises. Since the epoch is always 2016 blocks, if it comes in at less than 14 days, difficulty rises, If it takes longer than 14 days, then difficulty falls. What this means is that a larger decline will take longer to actually realize.

No big change in BTC price: $9102

[philipma1957]

Last year the ltc ½ ing took more then 30 days to drop the diff.

July 17 2019 the diff was 16.44 M = peak

Aug 14 2019 the diff was 13.44
Sept 17 2019 the diff was 10.90
Oct   15 2019 the diff was 9.41
Nov  19 2019 the diff was 6.13

Dec 20 2019 the dif was   4.72  M = low

all info was found here:

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/litecoin-difficulty.html#1y

many power contracts end:

on May 31
or June 30

so drops will follow.  price needs to be 15000 to negate the ½ ing for us miners.

[mikeywith]

One small thing to remember: Difficulty falls more slowly than it rises. Since the epoch is always 2016 blocks, if it comes in at less than 14 days, difficulty rises, If it takes longer than 14 days, then difficulty falls. What this means is that a larger decline will take longer to actually realize.

That is true in regards to the actual difficulty adjustment, but we are discussing something slightly different, the fact that the "base" of finding blocks isn't declining indicates hashrate has not left the network, and thus it won't be more than 14 days for the adjustment,

However, now I can see a slight drop in the speed of finding blocks, unfortunately with 1290 blocks have already been mined, this small drop won't really cause any drop in difficulty for the next epoch.

[philipma1957]

we are dropping harder now .

before 1/2 ing we were plus 53 blocks we are now plus 11-13

so,we dropped 40 blocks in 2 days.

124/144 = 86% thats 14%

we have 809 blocks to go.

a 14% drop is about 109 block short fall.

so 109-11 = 98

so it projects to

1918/2016

that is close to -5% this jump.  which means we need about 14250 price to be even if we mine.

does not mean much.  but a -5%. and then a neg 15% will help.  along with coins pushing to 10500.

so a diff.    of 15.2.    may 18-19
then a diff of. 13.0.     june 4-5

[stompix]

You just have to love bitcoin and all the things related to it, the unpredictability is simply awesome   #mikeywith came with a damn good explanation, we won't be seeing a massive shutdown overnight, it makes so much sense, it's not like energy contracts, rent, colocation hosting are all going to expire exactly on the 12 or 13. It would make a bit of sense on the 15 if any, but as always, just when we have a logical supposition.....this happens:

24h stats
Blocks:107
Avg. time between blocks: 807.48 s

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2020-05-13%2007:25:23..2020-05-14%2007:25:23)#

That's a -25% drop in mined vs expected blocks, and the difficulty estimation is just 0.07% away to go negative.

[philipma1957]

- 0.0527%.

so. from block 1008. we were at +53

block 1353 we are -1

so we did 345. and should have done 399

thus 345/399 -1 = -13.53%. since the 1/2 ing

price is 9650 it was 8500 at  1/2 ing   so 9650/8500 = +13.5%

some value is back

Latest Block:   630344  (17 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.9234%  (1353 / 1354.04 expected, 1.04 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16104807485529.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 16095918030016 and 16096878994426
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.0552% and -0.0492%
Previous Retarget:   May 5, 2020 at 12:02 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 12:16 AM  (in 4d 14h 33m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 12:17 AM  (in 4d 14h 35m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 13m 47s and 14d 0h 15m 27s

bitmain drops

s19pro from  2663 to 2493
s19      from  1946 to 1868
s17e     from   896 to   851      look for a second price drop.   corrected thanks to mark

[mark421421]

The s17e was $896 this morning. It was the T17+ thats 943.

[philipma1957]

we are 11 blocks behind 'normal' pace

at block 1008 of this jump which was the ½ ing block 630000 we were at +53 blocks

so we dropped 64 blocks from block 1008 to block 1366

those 358 blocks should have been 358+64 = 422

so 358/422 - 1 = -15.1% if we do this till the end of the 2016 epoch

we will be -10% for this jump

and coins will be up maybe 10%  so 20% in favor of miners  and the ½ ing is a 50% loss.

so maybe we drop 10% again. next jump

so our 16.1 does 14.5 then 13.1  maybe price finally shifts about 10.5k.

so a diff of 13.1 with a price of 10.5k on June 5th is my hope.

[alh]

While I always enjoy Phil's numerical analysis, I will add throw one small bit of sand in the gears. I think the projections are great in terms of difficulty and hash rate are likely more accurate than the price of BTC. My personal feeling is that the $10,000 BTC price is a kind of "resistance" barrier from a human perspective. I expect that there is a much larger set of people that are willing to sell BTC at $10,001 than at $9999.

Kinda like why things are priced at XXX.95 and not XXX+1.

[philipma1957]

While I always enjoy Phil's numerical analysis, I will add throw one small bit of sand in the gears. I think the projections are great in terms of difficulty and hash rate are likely more accurate than the price of BTC. My personal feeling is that the $10,000 BTC price is a kind of "resistance" barrier from a human perspective. I expect that there is a much larger set of people that are willing to sell BTC at $10,001 than at $9999.

Kinda like why things are priced at XXX.95 and not XXX+1.

I am not sure if this ½ ing will really start the detachment of mining cost from price cost.

The difference with say diamonds mining cost and price cost is more then 15 fold but a lot of factors are in-between a diamond in the ground and a diamond on a finger.

Once the btc is pulled out from the emptiness of cyberspace its a finished product.

I can see nothing but heart ache down the road for btc holders and miners I think the money will be made by exchanges and some traders.

[windjc]

Interesting take. I'd like to know what you think is different now vs. the last 12 years of btc. Because if nothings different, halving will have a compounding effect on supply to buy over time and assuming demand remains constant, we will see another multi year bull market.

[philipma1957]

Interesting take. I'd like to know what you think is different now vs. the last 12 years of btc. Because if nothings different, halving will have a compounding effect on supply to buy over time and assuming demand remains constant, we will see another multi year bull market.

tx fees will stop being able to scale as well .

50 coins and 0.05 fees or less

25 coins and 0.075 coins or less

12.5 coins and 0.3 coins or less


6.25 coins and 0.9 coins or less


3.125 coins and 1.5 coins = i don't think so.


1.5625 coins and  2.5 coins not happening.

but I am pretty much a stupid moron according to some so what do I know.

[mikeywith]

Interesting take. I'd like to know what you think is different now vs. the last 12 years of btc. Because if nothings different, halving will have a compounding effect on supply to buy over time and assuming demand remains constant, we will see another multi-year bull market.

That would be true if BTC wasn't being traded on exchanges in form of futures and spot orders the way it is now, we have a trading volume of 200k btc a day sometimes and that's pretty normal, how much did the halving cut down? 1800/2 = 900BTC a day , what is 900 BTC vs 200,000 BTC in volume? almost nothing.

Another way to look at it is by taking the total supply in circulation, we have over 18 million of them ( some could have been lost but that doesn't matter, they are there and thus they can be spent)

So you are cutting 900 BTC a day, or 328,500 a year, when the supply, is 18m, that's a bit below 2%, so one could argue that the halving could give bitcoin 2% more fiat value a year if everything else is equal!

The halving is a great way of deflating the supply speed/rate, but it was not invented to magically take the price to higher levels the way most people think, in fact even if the halving got rid of 50% of the supply in circulation, with demand being constant, bitcoin would only double once, but bitcoin doesn't gain value because of the halving, if the market is going up, it will go up with or without the halving, the same thing will happen on the way down, the halving is more of a psychological event to most people than anything to do with the supply and demand.

In other words, almost nearly 90% of bitcoin max supply is already there, the effect of the remaining of 10% is pretty minimal, mathematically speaking, even if the remaining 10% were mined in the course of a month wouldn't make a huge difference in terms of price, I believe the way satoshi implemented this, is to keep the incentive for miners for long enough until the blockchain has matured and can survive on fees.

[windjc]

[...]

Research studies indicate that only about 3 million of the total supply is actual for sale on the exchanges. In a year we will have cut the equivalent of 10% of that in new emissions or over 300k less coins annually.  Also, in USD terms this halving reduction value is around 8x greater than in 2016.

The biggest demand driver is that people don't sale. A certain % of new coiners become holders. The supply that remains in cold storage wallets and never moves is now higher than ever before.

Most of the "volume" on exchange is A. Fake B. Bots trading the same micro fractions of coins back and forth. There isn't much on the open market. And funds such as Greyscale and others grow at a rate now that pretty much eats the entirety of new supply.

Halving doesn't have an immediate effect. It has a compounding effect. The bid/ask of any given period is roughly 50/50.  Over a year a 10% reduction in expected supply (to actual available coins) can offset that equilibrium substantially. But it only takes a little bit, because a little bit tilted in one direction causes slow steady movement in that direction.  We've seen in bitcoin the power of narrative, and a slow steady rise creates a positive feedback loop that slowly ushers in more and more demand until we cycle up into huge overbought bubbles. Of course people always try to find another reason such as "the willy bot" or "tether printing." But its actually just simple supply demand economics and greed.

You can't price this in, because of the way it just slowly compounds. And the fact that its less coins % each halving is offset by the fact that its several times more in $$value.

[...]

How are you calculating fees in these equations? I'm sorry I don't follow.

[philipma1957]

when we were at 50 coins the average tx fee per block was about 0.05 coins. that is 1000 to 1  reward to fees.

we are at 6.25 coins a block. the average tx fee per block is 0.9 reward to fees that is 6.94       reward to fees ratio.

this is going to break down the mining cost per coin and separate it from the actual value of a coin.

much like a diamond in the rough is very cheap compared to a diamond on the finger.

yesterday. we mined say 900 coins add that to the 18,000,000 coins

value is  900 x 9500          =           8,550,000
value is 18,000,000 x 9500 = 171,000,000,000

how much was traded yesterday

https://coinmarketcap.com/

coin value
$174,071,693,762

market volume
$41,308,200,575

that is about 22%

or

41,308,200,575 / 8,550,000 =.

4831 to 1.  trade volume to mined volume

this is going to change for the worse with every 1/2 ing.

[windjc]

[...]

Again, I am lost. Why does trade volume to total market cap matter? Does anyone think that 41 Billion in trade vol happened yesterday? Its fake vol + bots rapid trading back and forth. It certainly isnt $41 billion worth of coin offered up to "please buy it from me" vs. whatever new demand may come online.

The fact that fees are going up per block + the value of BTC is rising means that fees are becoming more valuable to miners. Right? How is that a bad thing?