It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[mikeywith]

I think numbers do matter, because 4 years ago it was more of a hobby, more decentralized, mining at a loss is not a big deal. Now it's an industry, mining farms need to pay their power bills. The will just turn off and wait for the difficulty to drop. .

I have explained in details how will a whooping 50% drop in hashrate has a very little period of adjustment delay ( 1 extra week), i have also explained that just because rewards cut in half hashrate won't follow, proof is, we went from 8k to 4k during the same epoch, hashrate did not decrease by over 15% , 8k to 4k is the same as 12.5 btc to 6.25btc , because we pay our bills in $$ after all.

I want you to explain, why do you think the delay will be massive when the numbers in front of you state the opposite?

I agree to your statement, mining is now business driven more than any time in the past, but if a bunch of hobby miners made it during the halving, then huge farms with tons of money and planning will do even better.

Tl;DR

The halving is overrated, it will have no real huge impact on neither price nor hashrate, it will pass smoothly, and in a few months  we will break the all time high of hashrate regardless of price.

[1714695625]

1714695625

[1714695625]

1714695625

[philipma1957]

I think the price needs to be over 8k to break all time hashrate.

And that may be an underestimate of price needed.

But I do believe   we will go over 150eh this year.

[mikeywith]

I think the price needs to be over 8k to break all time hashrate.

What do you think is the average watts/th we have now? If it is 50w/th.. say we drop 30% post halving and we be at 70eh, if a good number of miners get S17 pro and more efficienct gears we can simply double the hashrate to 140eh without price having to do a thing, please let me know where does my estimates fail here.

[philipma1957]

tired will check it better on thursday.

[favebook]

What do you think is the average watts/th we have now? If it is 50w/th.. say we drop 30% post halving and we be at 70eh, if a good number of miners get S17 pro and more efficienct gears we can simply double the hashrate to 140eh without price having to do a thing, please let me know where does my estimates fail here.

I think there is at least 40EH and let's say that they are all on newest firmware and that is around 80W/TH (old stock ones are around 100W/TH if I remember correctly) and let's say that 20EH are all S11 and S15 (not sure how many have they produced of those but 10-20EH would be my guess) which are between 55 and 75 W/TH and let's just say that rest (aprox. 50EH) is S17PRO (I know that there is a lot of S/T 17/17e/17+ but S17PRO stock mode has 40 W/TH and that seems like a good average of newer gear for my calculation).

So, if my estimates are 100% right, that would give us 65W/TH average for all gear currently mining BTC only.

As well all know, my calculation is purely based on speculation and random figures, so take it with truck load of salt. But I personally think that with my calculation I am not that off from actual value.

[mikeywith]

20EH are all S11 and S15 (not sure how many have they produced of those but 10-20EH would be my guess) which are

Your numbers look reasonable to me, except for the quoted part, i highly doubt we have 10-20 EH of s11/S15, those gears are pretty rare, but let us just assume your final number is even better than mine as far as predicting that difficulty can still easily go above ath after the halving despite price staying below 8k, if the current average is 40w/th then my predictions will fail, the higher the average the more likely we climb up a few weeks post halving.

[favebook]

Yeah, you could actually be right. At a second look, they would have had to make ~830000 units of S11/T15/S15 which seems a bit odd, so let's say that there is 5EH which would make it ~210000 units which seems more reasonable.

So around 10EH more should be of S9's and 5EH more of S17PRO but correct me if I am a bit off with numbers.

So hypothetically, that would be 60W/TH avg.

Which is a bit odd in my opinion, even my first calculation seemed a bit off, before I calculated I thought that avg would be around 70W/TH at least.

[philipma1957]

well

microbt

m10 60 watts low 68 watts high
m20s  49 watts
m30s  40 watts?

avalon
1041  about 58 watts
1066  about 58 watts

innosilicon

t3t39
t3t50
t3t58   all around 60-65 watts

ebang not sure

cheetah around 60 watts

All of the above is more then 20% of network maybe 30%  and it may not average 60watts it may be just over.

first a few  interesting things is

After the ½ ing  BCH is not dropping hash rate.
The net work is still about 3.3eh even with earning at 6.7 cents a th daily

BSV does ½ in 6-8 hours

and btc is due in 33 days.

BCH  price jump up a bit  so after ½ ing we are at 0.0835
BSV  price is flat    so after ½ ing we are at 0.0617

and they are doing about 6eh of hash .  So unless all that gear is 40 watts a th it is not making much at all.  at 40 watts say 1 k-watt  to make  8 cent of coin  or 1 k-watt to make 6 cent of coin

So you need 5 cent power and all s17 to mine at a profit.

Watching both of them should help us predict BTC  in about 32 days at that ½ ing

if corona-v does not mutate to   corona-v FU  and then who cares about this

[stompix]

After the ½ ing  BCH is not dropping hash rate.
The net work is still about 3.3eh even with earning at 6.7 cents a th daily

Well, it did drop like a stone: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin%20cash-hashrate.html#3m

Seems like viabtc turned its hashrate to the chain on and off trying to help it go through the next difficulty adjustment.

BSV is not doing any better:
Block 630 000  04/10/2020 03:48:30
(Last) 630 030 04/10/2020 17:46:52

14 hours for 30 blocks, that's close to two blocks per hour...

[philipma1957]

Looks like we will jump back over 8%. almost back to our all time diff.

maybe 16.09 vs 16.51 for the all time high this a huge jump from 14.71

under 35 blocks to go.


tracking four jumps below.


16.5
13.8
14.7
16.0 in an hour or so.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

[...]

And what is we keep seeing by these tards?

Clean code and scale?

Some scale that 14 hours for 30 blocks! LMAO.

I wonder if we're starting to see the S19 Pro's hit the network now after the drop in hash past few weeks it seems to be rebounding now so my thoughts were someone turned off and upgraded.

Interesting times!

[mikeywith]

16.0 in an hour or so.

15.95T to be exact, less than 4% is needed for this Epoch to take us back to difficulty ATH, BTC price is at $6800, we are 35% down from this year ATH and only less than 4% down in terms of difficulty, I expect we hit a new ATH before the halving which is due in 20 days, many gamblers will try to hit a block or two before the halving comes, new gears are arriving soon, this looks bad overall as far as mining profitability is concerned, with the pandemic, oil prices collapsing, millions of people losing their jobs, price of bitcoin doesn't seem to be increasing, this is going to be a tough year for miners, stay strong - stay safe.

[philipma1957]

Yeah  look for a diff crash after ½ ing and a price dip.

Then a long climb back up.

[favebook]

I wonder if we're starting to see the S19 Pro's hit the network now after the drop in hash past few weeks it seems to be rebounding now so my thoughts were someone turned off and upgraded.

Highly doubt, as S19 and S19 Pro machines are due to be shipped during May and June.

[stompix]

with the pandemic, oil prices collapsing, millions of people losing their jobs, price of bitcoin doesn't seem to be increasing, this is going to be a tough year for miners, stay strong - stay safe.

Yeah, everything is going south, apart from some energy prices.
My last bill came with a huge discount from 7.2 cents to 6.9 cents (excluding other taxes) which....
But the situation is pretty grim, and it gets worse day by day, I wish so much for a price increase, not because of gains in my stash but so that more than 80-90% of the current hashpower stays mining and to keep all PoS fanatics silent.
Sometimes I feel like screaming, let's just get over with all this, the virus, the halving, crashes, quarantine, the ..everything!

Highly doubt, as S19 and S19 Pro machines are due to be shipped during May and June.

For clients, for special clients gear might be already up and mining by now. I can see some of the ones that bought those with June delivery praying that the ship carrying the gear will sink so that they can get a full refund rather than the miner itself.
And they are still selling those damn s9, e and k, how many of those have they manufactured?

[mikeywith]

Sometimes I feel like screaming, let's just get over with all this, the virus, the halving, crashes, quarantine, the ..everything!

Only 19 days left for the halving nightmare to be over, the virus maybe 2-3 months and we will get over it, the overall economy hmmm, probably a few years.

For clients, for special clients gear might be already up and mining by now.

There are indeed special clients that we are aware of but highly unlikely to be "special" enough to actually own the gears that early, but this doesn't mean anything because after all Bitmain themselves might be mining with a good amount of S19s already, which may not be the case at all, because if I was bitmain I would try to get rid of as many gears as I can before the halving.

[philipma1957]

we are down a little

Latest Block:   627310  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.0107%  (335 / 338.35 expected, 3.35 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15958652328578.42XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15904586546106 and 15942138039734
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3388% and -0.1035%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 2:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 5, 2020 at 3:44 AM  (in 11d 16h 37m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 5, 2020 at 6:04 AM  (in 11d 18h 57m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 1m 22s and 14d 3h 21m 25s

If we go flat and don't pass 16.5 this time. on may 4-5-6
the ½ ing comes  which will certainly crash difficulty 5 to 10 % on the may 19-20-21 jump

So it is possible that an ATH for diff was back in  March 10 - March 25 at 16.5529

If it breaks like LTC did last year.  that will not be topped  until 2021.

[mikeywith]

If we go flat and don't pass 16.5 this time.

We are 25 blocks behind but only 803 blocks in, so there is plenty of time until the adjustment, coins prices are picking up at about $7700, the way I see it is that if we manage to close the week above 7.9k which is where the 20SMA on the weekly, nothing will stop us from getting to 8.9-9k, that will most certainly bring a ton of gears online and get us to go past difficulty ATH.

As far as the halving is concerned, I now expect a larger drop between 15-20% on the first adjustment post the halving.

[philipma1957]

-3% at block 863 coins at 7700

may 12 1/2 ing

so real price is. 3800-3900

.1194 usd per th

real price is

0.0597 usd per th

100th. earns 5.97 pre power

100 watt a th gear burns 240kwatts cost at 10 cents 24.00 Loser
100 watt ................................................  5 cents 12.00 Loser
100 watt ................................................  3 cents   7.20 Loser

90 watt .................................................. 10 cents. 21.60 Loser
90 watt ..................................................   5 cents. 10.80 Loser
90 watt ..................................................   3 cents.   6.48 Loser

80 watt ................................................... 10 cents  19.20 Loser
80 watt ...................................................  5 cents    9.60 Loser
80 watt ...................................................  3 cents.   5.76 small profit of 21 cents

70 watt .................................................. 10 cents.   16.80 Loser
70 watt .................................................    5 cents.    8.40 Loser
70 watt ..................................................   3 cents.    5.04 small profit of 93 cents

60 watt .................................................. 10 cents.   14.40 Loser
60 watt ..................................................   5 cents.    7.20  Loser
60 watt ..................................................  3 cents.     4.32  1.65 profit. Avalon a1041 a1047 a1066 what'sminer m10 on low

50 watt ...................................................... 10 cents  12.00 Loser
50 watt.......................................................  5 cents.    6.00 Loser
50 watt.......................................................  3 cents     3.60  2.37 profit bitmain s15 on low , t17+  WhatsMiner m20s

40 watt ....................................................... 10 cents     9.60 loser
40 watt .......................................................  5 cents.    4.80  1.17 profit.   bitmain s17 s17+
40 watt .......................................................  3 cents      2.88.   3.09 profit

30 watt ..................................................... 10 cents.     7.20 loser
30 watt ....................................................   5 cents.      3.60   2.37 profit
30 watt ....................................................   3 cents.      2.16.  3.81 profit

those numbers mean all:

Avalon lose money unless they are at 3 cents
Innosilicon lose  money unless they are at 3 cents
bitmain need to be an s15 or better to turn a profit
what's miner need to be m20s m30s to turn a profit

the best gear. the s19pro. will need under 8 cent power to break even.

I see a solid drop in the diff on the may 19-20 jump.

[citronick]

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(Optional) BCH and BSV can be mined as per above but auto-convert to BTC every hour

Auto Switch
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