It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[favebook]

We hit 5584$ per BTC today, I am so happy and sad in same time... I am going to invest now which makes me hell of happy man but I am so sad since I am a miner as well...

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[philipma1957]

I just got some at 4900 damn!!

[favebook]

I just got some at 4900 damn!!

Yeah, I bought at 4850, going to put some cash on my card tomorrow so I can buy more. This is insane sale on BTC

[VRobb]

Good call phil, as I write this BTC is under 5k at 4943 and still dropping.  Crazy.  Time to buy BTC and some juicy stocks, say some Amazon or Costco.  Once this corona nonsense settles out the markets will zoom back to where they were before all this, and then some imho. To the moon, Alice, to the moon!

[philipma1957]

THE CRASH is magnificent we are at 4721!

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

make that 4519!!!

Sell off has been brutal!

[philipma1957]

4459!

I GRABBED SOME  at 4510 price.

I will try again if it drops under 3999.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

At what price point do you all think the larger miners will start to suffer by my calculation's we're already at a price point that could see some hash rate fall off the network if we stick below 4500 for extended period do you think we could see a shift in the network back to the smaller miners coming back online?

I would love to know what your thought's are on where it would no longer be viable for some of the mega farms if the price continues to drop.

Or do you think we will see what we saw before with the hashrate falling and there being mega fud to push the smaller miners back out and the Diff having a correction back down for prolonged period?

[philipma1957]

The big farms could get destroyed here.

This is a very interesting development.

stock market prices tomorrow are very important.

Some may shift to the stock market hoping for a buy jump.

If stock market does well tomorrow btc will stay low.

what does a 4500 dollar price do?

It kills off  a 40 watt per th farm. at the ½ ing

1ph uses 40kwatts x 24 = 1000 kwatts a day

that is 30 dollars 3 cent power   it earns 68.60   net 38.60   at ½ ing drop to 4 dollars
          40           4 cent power   it earns 68.60   net  28.60  at ½ ing  drop to - 6 dollars
          50           5 cent power   it earns  68.60  net  18.60  at ½ ing drop to  -16 dollars
         60            6 cent power   it earns  68.60  net  8.60    at ½ ing drop to  -26 dollars

this is for fully paid off s17 pro or s17 farms

remember 1 ph of s17 pros is about 53 x 19 =  so 19 miners at 1600 = over 30,000 worth of gear that is next to worthless at this moment in time.

How long can mines hold out  with current prices less then 120 days.  we will see diff well under 8 vs current 16

Maybe lower price is king here

 no rally = bad.

I am ready for an April fools day rally.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Thanks for the math on that Philip, I have been thinking we may reach this point for quite some time now I think we are in the grips of the next global markets crash I have the feeling we are going to lose the institutional investors and traders for quite some time after this move and I think we will probably see a lot more negative diff's going forward to be honest.

I am a champion for the small miners the network topology will change if we are going to be in this for the long run and I believe in time we will go back to a time in the past where it's back to the hand's of the many rather than the few.

I am also very glad I never sold off my gear think I might start dusting it off and looking for a place to get setup again if this is going to be a continued downtrend going forward.

I have not been keeping up with the chip development side for a while now but it's not looking like the efficiency is following the same path it once was with chips and I can only speculate that bitmain won't be making sub 3kw  gear any more.

Thanks for the update going to start keeping eyes on the mining again because it's about to get hot in the kitchen as far as I can tell.

**edit** out of merit so IOU 2 merit

[philipma1957]

The key to this crash is it needs to hold beyond the ½ ing.

That wipes out all the big time miners. As all gear is a loser at 4 cents after the ½ ing with the diff of 16 that we have.

So we could see a huge drop in the diff. If this crash holds sway and coins remain at the 4500 to 5000 level.

[mikeywith]

Phill, i am glad to see you hedged your self against old gears, it pays off in times like this, at least even if you decide to keep on mining with those old s9, you could use a portion of the profit you getting from s17pros to pay the power bill, so you are not doing bad at all.

I personally know some people who are still heavily invested in S9, they have no cash to buy the dip, they have no more effienct gear to compensate for the current lose, their only way out is to gamble against the price hopping it will rise before the bill is due,or switch off the gears.

Bitcoin is trading at 4.5k now, terrible to say the least.

[philipma1957]

I just got some at 3999!!!  edit 3989  

I will buy more if it goes under 3.333k

I can do a few more buys then I am done.

I will buy at 3,333 then 2,999 then 2,222 after that I am done.

Or it goes up.

[favebook]

Back to 5.5k, seems like people understood what is going on

[philipma1957]

well it was a very strong drop.

I caught the bottom with a piece of my buys.

But I also purchased at 4500, 4800, 5800 along with the 3989 buy.

I would like to see it stabilized at 5k vs 7k

I rather shake people out now and not at the 1/2 ing.

[mikeywith]

Back to 5.5k, seems like people understood what is going on

The weird part about all this mess is the total hashrate, we are back to 124 from a low of 97.xx, the current hashrate is actually higher than it was a week ago when bitcoin was trading at $8000 or nearly double the current prices, it does not seem like miners are willing to go home, a huge amount of mining gears are probably mining at negative now hopping for a price rebound before they have to pay the bill if we go up from here then that will work out just fine but if we collapse even more, not only they would have been mining at loss, they will also have to sell whatever bitcoin hodlings they have for pretty cheap just to pay the electric bill.

I personally know a few people who don't care about prices and don't shut down their gears instantly, I, however, disagree to that approach as it carries a huge risk that can be avoided, and if you treat mining as a business you should always at worst case scenario cash out enough to pay your bills so that you don't have to sell more BTC if the price dips any lower, but that's just me, people run their business the way they see fit.

On a side note, I use https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate to monitor the current hashrate, does anyone know of a more accurate or/and faster resposnive website?

[philipma1957]

Up and down charts like blockchain  do have a luck factor.  Smaller 1  or 2 or 3 hour  samples  can be way off by just 2 really long blocks.

Don't try to do short time periods variance is truly difficult to get rid of.

Ie  base the hash on the time it takes to do the next block >  A 30 minute block  will then show the network at  - 67%

I push these 2 week threads  for a few reasons.  Once diff sets on day on it is a known for 14 days.  Plus on day 10 or 12  of those 14 days you have a good idea of the next jump.  So you kind of get to do a decent 28 day time slot for the diff over and over.

Fuck that  with price it is simply impossible as price can change every 10 seconds  which is 6 per minute or 360 each hour.

that  is 360 x 24 x 14 = 120,960 moves in 2 weeks.   Vs 1 move in 2 weeks and a good clue on the next move 12 days into the diff.

Way easier to work with.

We are in times that have not been seen since the Spanish Flu  in 1918-1919   20 million died out of 1.2 billion back then.

That is not going to happen here. But a new flu/virus that spreads like wild is really scary to all humanity.

Thus price is moving like mad.  If the Chinese numbers are true (lets hope they are)  this will not be that terrible.

It the Italian numbers are true it will be worse then I hope for.

Mean while  my  wife went to the doctor.  She is improving really slowly so she keeps to our home a lot. Doctors do not think she has the corona-v

but that she had a Flu become pneumonia.    It has been 76 or 77 days and not fully gone.

She has a cough and postnasal drip with some lung congestion.

VS fever cough weakness in muscles etc.

[citronick]

Get well soon Mrs Philipma1957.

[philipma1957]

Yeah We are hoping maybe two three weeks and it will be gone.

I need to keep her Isolated as much as I can as adding corona-v to what ever she has would not be a good thing.

House is stocked with food and we try to stay home as much as we can.

[stompix]

Take care Mr. and Mrs. Philipma1957  . Hope everything is going better.

@mikeywith , as Philipma1957 said, blockchain sucks at predicting the hashrate, they are using a 2x12 hours interval for it, but luck makes the whole thing unreliable. Look at the last days: https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days. 119,97,124,102. Hard to believe they are pulling out and in 20% of the hash rate each day.

Meanwhile,

-7.6491% and -4.7203%

not going to even try to make a prediction, the whole scene is a mess anything can happen.

Over at bitdeer:

S19Pro:

Lowest Computing Power Fee $0.0309/T/Day
electricity Fee $0.0406/T/Day
BTC Theoretical Output from BTC.com  $0.0819/T/Day

Purchase costs: $0.0309/T/Day

S17Pro , this one is a disaster

Lowest Computing Power Fee $0.0538/T/Day
Electricity Fee$0.0542/T/Day
BTC Theoretical Output from BTC.com $0.0819/T/Day
Purchase costs: $0.0538/T/Day