It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957laptop]

There is a lot of new gear (S19 and S19 Pro) arriving in Serbia since 3 days ago, which means that there should be a lot of same units in America soon too. China probably had them a few days earlier too. This is it for diff dropping IMO. I really doubt we will see any lower diff this year. S19 will just be replacing S9s and bringing a ton of more hashrate than people will be able to disconnect by not mining with S9s anymore.

pretty sure it is s19 and s19 pro  coming on line..

10000 = 1 eh
20000 = 2 eh
30000 = 3 eh
40000 = 4 eh
50000 = 5 eh


m30s are also dropping  they are around 80th

so

12000 =  1 eh
24000 =  2 eh
36000 =  3 eh


so that could mean  as much as 8eh of new gear.

along with   some s9 old gear turn on for a bit.


problem with s19pro is price is far too high  2400 plus shipping plus import tax = no go.

I will simply gather coins and shut down older gear for next few jumps.

[1714687049]

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[1714687049]

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[1714687049]

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[mikeywith]

My guess is  s19 pro and s19  shipped in 10,000 units to 20,000 unitswhich is

1000000 th   - 2000000th
      1000  ph - 2000ph
            1 eh   - 2eh

My guess is that it's a lot more than that, after the 10% drop and should price maintain the $9000 level, we will most likely see a spike in difficulty if all that S19 is going to add is 1-2eh then mid efficient gears like the T17s are still safe at the average 5-6c, if it's more then it's about game-over for those, I also noticed a slight increase in price for the S9 in China (the U.S is not effected) it seems like some huge farms are taking a huge bet on the rainy season, with power rate at 2 cents, a 10% drop in difficulty and ROI in that S9 is really good, S9 at default settings makes about 60 cents a day at 2 cents now, about 66 cents a day or $20 a month after the drop, with a custom firmware they can do even better, so $40/$20 that is 60 days to ROI the miner, with 2 more months of mining or right about when the rainy season is coming to an end, after that, they can still sell it for $20, so

Cost = $40
Profit= 20+20+20+20+20 = $100, take difficulty increase into account, roughly remove 1 month worth of profit, so that will be $40 investment for $40 profit, someone with the proper mining farm can through in a million dollars and make another million out of it in 4-5 months, I remember last year moon soon season in china caused a spike in difficulty and S9 prices mooned, can't expect a different scenario this year, so I tend to agree, after this drop, we could really start climbing back up.

[philipma1957]

the idea that 50,60,70 watt gear drops out for 5-6 cent miners is interesting.

almost every other company is over 50 watts.  very few pieces of gear are under 50 watts when it comes to innosilicon avalon or WhatsMiner.


EDIT:

nice  we just blew past 10k.

Maybe we shoot past 11k by the morning .

we can use a massive price uptick.

10-11-12  would be nice.  I would love to see a real rally here.

[alh]

Nice while it lasted: BTC price is $9462

[philipma1957]

It should bounce up again before the weekend.

but so far it is lower now 9517.

[mikeywith]

Phill, I wish I could be so optimistic , bitcoin can't keep going up forever, we have been going up since March, out of 11 weeks, 9 of them were green candles, a correction to $7700 would be very healthy if this uptrend is to be sustained, now as far as the upward scenario, almost all traders agree on $10500 being the most crucial level to break if price breaks that level and doesn't drop below right away, safe to say that 14k, 20k is coming, if not then we would be hanging around these levels for months.

Meanwhile, we are maintaining more or less the same base, 200~ blocks range.

Current Pace:   89.5099%  (1777 / 1985.26 expected, 208.26 behind)
Next Difficulty:   between 13573359215907 and 13593105725921
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.3361% and -10.2057%

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

I would also agree with this I think the run to 10k there was the start of a very long sell off that is going to start to push the price down also with the uncertain economic climate I know a lot of traders who have pulled from the markets as they are starting to see that indeed the market may be in for some turmoil.

Having a quick look on the ASIC stats on trading view is not a pretty sight at the moment.



I think if we continue to see more of the hashrate vanish and less new gear come online it might start to push other's out the market there was also some news out of china from what I can make out some miners in a specific area of china have been told to start ramping down there mining efforts from what I can make out it's around 10-12% of the global hashrate that could be effected.  (Still trying to get clarification on this)

Interesting time's on the horizon for sure!

I hope you all managed to catch that 10k!

[mikeywith]

... some news out of china from what I can make out some miners in a specific area of china have been told to start ramping down there mining efforts from what I can make out it's around 10-12% of the global hashrate that could be effected.  (Still trying to get clarification on this)

Very interesting points indeed, would you elaborate more in regards to the quoted part? The chinese miners were told by whom? It makes a ton of difference if that was a financial advice or a political decision.

To be clear up to this point i don't see us selling off terribly low to the 3k low or below like many traders suggest, i believe we are in capitulation phase, at these stages the market gets rid of all the week hands bulls or bears, a spike to 10k gets many moon boys to fomo and boom! Liquidated, a new low in the  mid 6000 to mid 7000 will get a ton of bears excited and many hodlers lose hope, these sudden sharp moves will get most people out, then followed by a boring sideways market which will wipe out the inpatients, then sometime by year end or next year when nobody expects it, we shoot to 30-50k.

How will hashrare react to all of this is hard to guess, my guess is that we go up in difficulty regardless, for two main reasons, efficiency and the noobs who overpay for mining gears.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/bitcoin-mining-china-ban-crypto-cryptocurrency-wechat
https://cryptopotato.com/chinese-region-sichuan-to-ban-cryptocurrency-mining-or-not-exactly/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54552854#msg54552854
some sources re the above

[philipma1957]

https://cryptopotato.com/chinese-region-sichuan-to-ban-cryptocurrency-mining-or-not-exactly/

This is interesting I bold typed it.

Also last one has a point I could see someone dumping 25000 s9's and converting to s19's.

They have a ton of coins  and are cashing coins quicker than they are mining them. This allows them to order and pay for the s19's.

[windjc]

I follow Matt's twitter: https://twitter.com/mjdsouza2

He says that the halving is consolidating mining into the strong hands - hands that don't have to sell BTC. So that overall, not only did halving reduce new produced supply by 50%, but also reduced the overall % of coins being sold by miners.

I think its pretty unlikely any part of China is banning mining. For 6+ years we've heard all kinds of craziness out of China and 99% of the time its just mistranslated, misunderstood reports or out right lies. I doubt anything changes there.

[Last of the V8s]

oh undoubtedly. here's a good article https://www.aniccaresearch.tech/blog/bitcoin-minings-three-body-problem

[mikeywith]

... not only did halving reduce new produced supply by 50%, but also reduced the overall % of coins being sold by miners.

This is fundamentally wrong, even if satoshi mentioned it, there are no miners who "don't have to sell BTC" it's fake news, at best case scenario I would describe it as miners who would have to sell slightly less btc given the cost of mining, but even that is wrong to be honest, rest assure no large miners on planet earth counts on bitcoin price to go up while paying the bills from revenue that comes outside of his mining operations, everything in mining is fiat-based, that's why we don't see the network having more hashrate than the market can handle because the "we don't sell BTC" theory doesn't exist in the mining world, those who bet on the price to go up simply buy bitcoin, as long as the power company sends the bills in fiat, they will ALWAYS have to sell what they mine, everything involved in their business is fiat related, salaries, rent, power, infrastructure, heck even the mining gears are paid in fiat.

The halving effect won't change much, think of it as a 50% drop in price, how often do we see that in BTC? a lot!, in fact, the halving affects miners less because unlike price changes, the halving is an event that all the big players planned for ahead of time, they positioned themselves in a spot to allow them to stay in the market after the halving, the same way they managed to stay in the game when bitcoin dropped almost 85% in price, it's those small miners and the newbies who get kicked out of the game when such events happen because they think the halving will take BTC to the moon, and the moon being your only plan usually rekt you.

[...]

Very interesting reads, great-searching skills, I, however, have to agree to windjc for the second time ( The first time we agreed to disagree) I don't see that happening, somebody is pushing this news to serve some agenda like always, could it be Bitmain trying to tell the world, hey buy our overpriced gears, the difficulty is going down because miners in Sichuan are shutting down? the Chinese government won't let that happen, in China, anything that brings in $$ and doesn't put the rulers at any direct risk - gets full support, is bitcoin mining a threat to Xi Jinping? the answer is probably no, then mining stays.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

I know this is going to be a pain but this is what is being banded about in china



I did find a translation for it somewhere but I cannot for the life of me recall where I read.

If there is some truth to this matter and it's not just some speculation but miners have actually been told to ramp down in a orderly manner and not to just switch off there must be some reason behind it.

If I can find the post with the image again I will link it.

As for the Diff this could mean we start to see further drops if this is legitimate and we may start to see further sell off's into the market.

I don't think we're our of hot water just yet but I am thinking that there could be a silver lining ahead for those who kept hold of there equipment.

[stompix]

I did find a translation for it somewhere but I cannot for the life of me recall where I read.

Well, you better find it as I don't know how to write even China in Chinese. But, China and the endless rumors, you really have to take all those with a megaton of salt.

I went over the article Last of the V8s posted about three times, one thing I disagree a bit is the graph with the hash rate increasing during the flood season. Not only is a huge spike in the dry season left out but also you can't really explain pikes of over 50% that start one month before the ending of the period, miners won't flock to that region in the last day, right? One more thing, I really couldn't resist



Back to the difficulty, I was wondering about that spike of 169 blocks in 24hours, this is how the block generation looks over the last days, in a 24 hours interval, the block is the first block mined that day, with a pretty weird coincidence for 5 minutes after 00:00 in the last 3 days.

Code:

632236  2020-05-30 00:18
632392  2020-05-31 00:15   156
632542  2020-06-01 00:55   150
632676  2020-06-02 00:05   134
632805  2020-06-03 00:05   129
632944  2020-06-04 00:05   139

A few more blocks to go, so it will be ~ -9.3%.

[philipma1957]

and boom. diff is now 13.7

my miners made 1800 x 0.00000883 = 0.015894 btc a day. of which I get 25%

today they make 1800 x 0.00000964 = 0.017352 btc a day of which I get 25%

so in theory I will earn 1.58337 btc over the next year.  with full flat diff.


the ath diff was 16.5.  we are at 13.7

lets see how this unfolds.

[windjc]

[...]

Hey Mike, Matt works in the mining industry and is in touch with large miners on a daily basis as a part of his business. You completely discount what he has to say. Do you have proof of this on your end or just speculation based on the economics being the way you suppose they are? Honest question, as I have no direct personal knowledge either way.

[mikeywith]

Do you have proof of this on your end or just speculation based on the economics being the way you suppose they are?

Do I have proof that 1+1 = 2? I really don't, I just know it is.  I don't know who that guy is but I am sure that anyone who knows the basic of economy and mining won't say

He says that the halving is consolidating mining into the strong hands - hands that don't have to sell BTC

The bold part is 1+1 = 3, really it doesn't matter who says it, if Albert Einstein comes back alive from his grave and say 1+1 = 3, it will still be wrong, and since you mentioned that

Matt works in the mining industry and is in touch with large miners on a daily basis as a part of his business

Then I can only assume that you misunderstood whatever he was trying to say, could you please quote the part where he says, "miners don't have to sell BTC"? Because that statement is really wrong, I have no better way of telling you how wrong that sounds.

[windjc]

I never said "zero btc" or "no btc" but a significant less amount. I mean if miners are able to pay expenses without selling BTC, for many reasons - previous profit, money from other assets they have, etc. and they have a choice, then they may choose to not sell BTC if they think its a better asset to own than cash, or other assets.

I mean this doesn't seem like 1+1=3 nor does it seem like rocket science. Matt literally says that this is the case with some large miners and is correlated with mining consolidating into stronger hands.

[philipma1957]

You don't have to be large I can mine and hold due to my deal.

I know others with the same setups.

You need to find someone with a power contract that he is stuck with.

Many people  buy a 1 year 1 mega watt contract to something like that and get stuck with the contract.

My host has a three year power deal.  He splits coins with me. my gear is paid off.  so I can mine and hold the entire year. if I choose to.

I am small about 2 ph.  but I know a 10ph guy same setup.  he is sitting on 200 s17pros giving him just over 10.6 ph

he gets 5.3 ph worth of coins.  the guy with excess power gets 5.3 ph worth of coins  he is obliged to pay his power contract for  next 16 months.

the owner of the miners can simply hold coins.

I know a third guy with a 1 ph deal.

all three of us have the gear paid off
all three of us have a mix of s9,m10,m20,s17,a1066

we can sit on the gear and just take in coins for about 13 to 18 months.

If I know three guys in NJ like this there are more scattered about.

I would think it could be 5% of the worlds hash is being power by people with failed power contracts.

my guy lost a lot of freezers when an ice cream guy shut down. so he had spare power.  things went sideways with cover-19 and now the riots.  we did not and may never build the big solar array.

buy solar still has the 1 acre array for his home and some mining.

but the clifton place may be around for 14 months and then shut down.

hard to say.  If a huge rally happens we will  do very well if it limps a long it will most likely die off.