It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

USA fifty states 50 sets of rules.  My state New Jersey has shut down a lot but not all stores.

I stocked my house 🏡.

Toilet paper
paper towel 🧻

eggs
cheeses
frozen veggies.
potatoes
sweet potatoes
i have air filters
i have water filters
i have some vodka
i have some rye
i have a generator that uses propane
i have propane
i have soap.

many stores are shut.
gas stations
super markets
drug stores are open.

and we are still running busses 🚎 and trains 🚞

my issue with the chinese numbers are not that 80,000 got sick .  the death 💀 rate seems very low compared to Italy death rate. not sure how this can be so different.

Back to difficulty. I am sitting in my house mining as I type. This seems to mean pow coins will come back better then many may think.

I see a second smaller drop in diff. then flatness for two months.

assuming all out brilliant world leaders don’t do something clever.  note 📝 sarcasm to the max.

[1714697680]

1714697680

[mikeywith]

my issue with the chinese numbers are not that 80,000 got sick .  the death 💀 rate seems very low compared to Italy death rate. not sure how this can be so different.

I can tell you why, you see a good amount of people (30% if  IIRC) need to be in the ICU (intensive care units) or they will die to the CoronaVirus.

China did a great job in quarantining infected cities, built a hospital with a capacity of about 1000 ICUs, and never stopped provding more, so the case was most of the time as follows:

ICUs+ Doctors+Nurses => Infected with people who need ICU = low death rate.

In Italy on the other side, and because they failed to apply a good quarantine, and because they don't even have 10% of the production capacity China has it was:

ICUs+ Doctors+Nurses < Infected with people who need ICU = high death rate.

And Italy has a better ICU per capita ratio than most other countries, so if the virus spreads as fast as it did in Italy due to lack of quick quarantine in another country, we will sadly see worse death rate than in Italy.

For an example, it says here the U.S has 2.8 bed per 1000 people, assuming they are not rushing to add more now, then many people will die not just due to the virus, but rather the lack of health care and the problem with these ICUs, a patient doesn't stay for a day or two, they might need to stay in for days, so if you have 50 beds in your city, no more than 150 people can get sick per say a week because nearly 3rd of them might need to be in the ICU and that is exactly 50, say 51 people need ICU, and 1 person will be at great risk, that is the exact reason why governments quarantine us, not because they think they can keep us safe from the virus forever, but because we need to slow the rate of infected people so that we can give them the intensive care they need until a vaccine has been found.

So really,  your chances of survival, when hit by the virus (especially if you are old or have some health issues), depend almost ENTIRELY on how many ICUs are available at your city and how many people get sick at the same time as you do.

the above information is not my speculations or own findings, it was explained to me by a doctor or else I would have never thought about it this way, obviously, the governments don't tell us all the details because they don't want to 1-scare us and 2- knowing that all you have in your city is 10 or 20 ICUs makes you think the health care program your government has always promoted is far worse than less developed countries and that will cause problems to the government because the people will protest against them.

Also, the death rate has to do the health of individual and lifestyle, the Chinese have a very good diet, a lot of vegetables, rice and seeds, Italians eat a lot of pasta and pizza, the U.S diet is even worse, basically, all of our diets suck big time compared to the Chinese.

Frod: sorry for going off-topic here, those are great public information that every miner can make use of.

Meanwhile, back to difficulty.

Latest Block:   622611  (13 minutes ago)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.6962% and -14.3548%

we are starting to go flat, 2 days for the next adjustment, fingers crossed that we do hit -15%.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   622642  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   84.7190%  (1715 / 2024.34 expected, 309.34 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16552923967337.23XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 14033785889809 and 14081558603838
Next Difficulty Change:   between -15.2187% and -14.9301%
Previous Retarget:   March 9, 2020 at 6:50 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 6:05 PM  (in 2d 9h 51m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 7:26 PM  (in 2d 11h 12m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 11h 15m 15s and 16d 12h 36m 19s

and we are at -15.2%

309 blocks off pace

our 2ph  will get a boost equivalent to 300th of new gear.

we could use this.  price has flattened around 6k.

"gold is at        1526    down from 1682   on feb 24 .............................................................. - 9.27% drop
silver is at      12.88   down from 18.87  on feb 24 ..............................................................  - 31.75% drop
platinum is at   637    down from  975    on feb 24 ..............................................................  - 34.67% drop

dow jones is at 19173 down from 29,219 on feb 20  and from 27,960 on feb 24 ....................... -34.38% or -31.43%  depends on date used

btc is at  6275  down from  9588 on feb 24 .......................................................................... -34.56% drop  but  miners will be getting a 15% boost in 2 days  so for miners the 34.56% drop  will reduce to 24.73%"  source was yahoo search results for prices

making it better then silver, platinum and the dow jones, but worse then gold.

I think this trend will hold over the coming months.

PLEASE NOTE ALL THE WEALTH STORES OTHER THEN GOLD DROPPED 31-35%

with BTC  this is going to be mitigated via diff adjustment.

Please understand this is all new territory for us. Worldwide.

I guess if a lot of meteors a really large amount of them struck all over the planet causing damage everywhere it would match this.
Of course that example would mean they were big and all over the place but not too big as to kill us all. ie a world wide issue.
This disaster is bad, but if the illness spread like it does and had a really high kill rate say 35% it would have truly been fucked up.

MY state of New Jersey is up to 1914  a solid third place number
MY birth state of New York is up to 16,887  first place.

"Top five states

New York......      16,887
Washington ......   1,996
New Jersey........   1,914
California..........   1,468
Illinois.............    1,049

OF NOTE:

Texas ............   334 "    SEEMS TOO LOW  note sourced from cnn statpage on internet.


ON A PERSONAL  note:  whatever  my wife and I got back around dec 25- Jan 16  seems to have left me entirely and my wife still has some coughing .

We are not going to the Lung doctor for her this week  due to corona-v fears doctor asked us to self isolate.

I take her temp 3 times a day
I take her blood O2 levels 3 times a day

her temps are good
her O2 levels  are hitting 96,97,98    vs  92,93,94
mine are also better.

Finally  my wife's first cousin is a nurse on Long Island, New York.  she is over 60   she is recovering from corona-v  her husband is  still sick from corona-v.

So to all be careful especially if you are a smoker or a vaper as  a link  to vaping and getting really sick from corona-v seems to be happening. At any age.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-publications/2020-halving-analysis
Understanding Bitcoin Market Participants – Vulnerabilities in the Price of Bitcoin Driven by Miners
via Block Digest https://youtu.be/ikumx7i1a3I - * might summarise any commentary later

Many fear Halving but if you understand the psychology of the miner and how game theory will drive behavior, Pre and Post Halving, the efficient miners should welcome it. Miners, sub 6.3c, with the most efficient mining rigs will feel pain but will survive. Bitcoin naturally has a sell pressure from miners that chips away at Bitcoin’s price. Post Halving less new fiat will be required to counter balance miner sell pressure. As a result, Investment Funds and Hodlers will be more capable of stabilizing the downward pressure by injecting enough new fiat into the system to achieve long-term price appreciation.

+moon

Good luck to all the miners in the days to come. The backbone of Bitcoin.

[mikeywith]

btc is at  6275  down from  9588 on feb 24 .......................................................................... -34.56% drop  but  miners will be getting a 15% boost in 2 days  so for miners the 34.56% drop  will reduce to 24.73%"   source was yahoo search results for prices

Mining BTC is actually a plus, it generates income, holding gold or even BTC for that matter does not generate a passive income as long as it's the price is going down.

on a side note, silver is valued mainly by production and not due to people investing in it, unlike Gold and BTC people buy them because for speculation even if they don't really use them.

Current Pace:   84.6213%  (1744 / 2060.95 expected, 316.95 behind)
Next Difficulty:   between 14017417303163 and 14056612012341
Next Difficulty Change:   between -15.3176% and -15.0808%

1744 blocks down, 272 blocks to go, nothing really can happen to change these estimations, so 14% to 16% is almost out of the question, it's a relief to me, I hope we don't get any spikes in the hashrate when profitability increases in 2 days, mining at 14T diff for a month or two would be really good.

[stompix]

her temps are good
mine are also better.
Finally  my wife's first cousin is a nurse on Long Island, New York.  she is over 60   she is recovering from corona-v  her husband is  still sick from corona-v.

Good to hear everything is working out for the better. Friday I'm out of self-isolation, my kid has worn me out, even when I come to the forum I need time to concentrate before reading and replying. If someone thinks that while staying at home you have more time to be online, it's the opposite with a small child!!!

Also, the death rate has to do the health of individual and lifestyle, the Chinese have a very good diet, a lot of vegetables, rice and seeds, Italians eat a lot of pasta and pizza, the U.S diet is even worse, basically, all of our diets suck big time compared to the Chinese.

Hihi, it might be pizza and pasta but Italy has a life expectancy at 83.4, US at 78.9 and China at 76.7. God knows why the difference in deaths and cases is coming from....he or the devil.

At the end of the year survivor that held on to there coin will be richer after wealth had changed so many hands.

Yeah, how many bullets or gas tanks could you buy in Mad Max with 50 mbit?  

Now, since we're on speculation and talking about survival, this is one thing that scares me.. among a thousand others . There are maybe 15Exhash of miners turned down. If the price doesn't recover till the halving, those will be permanently shut down as it makes zero sense to turn them off now and turn them back again, for what? On top of that, we have probably a few hundred Ph that was turned off but replace by newer gear.

So, doomsday scenario, 20Exhash of miners that are currently being sold at a discount, and you don't have to wait 100 days for delivery, probably even more if we consider all the gear that was turned already off and on sale.

Now, the halving comes. We have more efficient gear, there are miners who will be able to take a hit and survive (like someone here who has dirt cheap dirty ower   ) but we might still experience a drop in the hash. I doubt it will be 50%, I think it's impossible no matter how you play with numbers but another 15% is doable.

Till now, nobody could muster that amount of power unless he had his own factory, but right now it will be cheap as hell and available. I don't care that much about the price, I think that a slow growth based on usage and demand is the best way but really right now, I think we need to double before the halving or for the first time ever bitcoin might be in a really vulnerable position.

Hope it's just my mind playing tricks on me.

[philipma1957]

Why not turn off a piece of gear that is losing a little right now.

But when the 15% diff change happens turn it on>

If a m10 is losing 25 cents a day right now

it would be making money  once the 15% jump happens.

[mikeywith]

Hihi, it might be pizza and pasta but Italy has a life expectancy at 83.4, US at 78.9 and China at 76.7.
God knows why the difference in deaths and cases is coming from....he or the devil

You are confusing life expectancy to health, these numbers would make sense if people were dying only because of their health status which is not the case because you can live a 100 years, half of them with health issues.

The virus does not care about your life expectancy or age, it cares about your current health condition.

It might be hard for someone who has not lived around Chinese people (I did for years) to imagine how freaking healthy they are, old grandmothers there perform a lot of physical work that women in their middle age in the west find hard to do.

In my country, people start to "wear out" at the age of 60-70, my grandmother (mom's side) couldn't even stand up for years before she died, she lived for nearly a 95 years, but in the last  decade or a bit more of her life, her health was condition was terrible, on the other hand, my Chinese landlord was in her late 80s and she could walk all day long, she was even going to school at that age, this is not just a simple example on a very small scale, it's my wide observation based on years, we eat croissant and Nutella for breakfast, they eat rice and drink green tea (without sugar), so one could imagine, I have not looked at the "statistics online" but if you ask anyone who lived long enough in both sides of the world, they will probably tell you the exact same thing.

Why not turn off a piece of gear that is losing a little right now.
But when the 15% diff change happens turn it on>

This does concern me as far as the following difficulty adjustment is concerned, a 15% drop will make a lot of gears profitable again and we might not have another drop for the following 2 weeks, the price also seems to be recovering as we approach the adjustment.

[stompix]

Why not turn off a piece of gear that is losing a little right now.

But when the 15% diff change happens turn it on>

If a m10 is losing 25 cents a day right now

it would be making money  once the 15% jump happens.

My "worst that can happen" scenario was not about the next retarget but if we go through the halving with this. Of course, with a diff drop, you will earn a bit more, the hash jumps again, you lose again...but those ups and downs won't shield you from a 50% drop at the halving if you're that tight on the income/expenses line.

Now, that said, I seriously don't know what game bitdeer is playing and I really don't understand any of this..no f clue!

Frist the new "acceleration plan": https://www.bitdeer.com/zh/info/1552

How this is even good for you when: 3. BitDeer reserves the right of final interpretation ...lol

Second, their plans say:

Estimated start date is 2020/05/20

What the hell is happening?   They have sold 60% of the packages they will put to hash in 2 months? No, I can't believe it, say what you want but no, unless they have only 10 plans and they sold 6, no, I'm not going to believe it.

And this will happen one week after the halving? Common!

[philipma1957]

Rules for the Acceleration Return Plan

The Acceleration Return Plan  ( https://www.bitdeer.com/en/pricing?id=1 ) uses more effective product design as well as lower fees to help users recover their mining investment rapidly and actively respond to changes in market trends.

Standard of Return
Within the term of this plan, the return standard is defined as the accumulated mining revenue from the mining pool minus the paid electricity fee, settled daily on UTC+0. If the calculation amount is less than the principal (computing power fee), it is defined as not return and the earnings distribution follows phase 1. If the calculation amount is equal or greater than the principal,  it is defined as has returned and the earnings distribution follows phase 2. Once phase 2 trigged, the earning distribution will follow phase 2.
Phase 1:
Users get all the net earnings during this period.
Phase 2:
Users and BitDeer calculate the earnings on a daily basis (UTC+0) and follow the fixed proportion to distribute the net earnings. Please check the proportion in the order summary page. The daily net earnings = daily mining revenue - daily electricity fee. If the calculation is negative, BitDeer will not involve in the earning distribution.

Tips for electricity fee payment
BitDeer offers a flexible payment mechanism for electricity fees so that users can select the best payment strategy in the context of price fluctuation. Even if the daily earnings are less than the electricity fee, users can also continue to mine the cryptocurrency in an improving market environment.

Description of mining outputs
The daily mining outputs are made variable by two factors including the mining difficulty and the operation and management level of mining equipment. The first factor is unpredictable and uncontrollable, but BitDeer can always deploy the most sophisticated dispatching technology and make the utmost effort to guarantee the operation of our data center at its best capacity.

Notice:
1. The daily mining output is calculated in USD at 0 AM, UTC+0.
2. Rules for exchange rate settlement:
The mining plan in the earning distribution rule involves the computing of users’ cumulative income in fiat currency. The weighted average result of the BTC-USDT price is sampled from seven leading exchanges (Bitstamp, Bittrex, Coinbase Pro, Gemini, Kraken, Itbit and LMAX Digital) at 0 AM, UTC+0.
3. BitDeer reserves the right of final interpretation.

Bold is all that matters  :  Translation = "we can say fuck you"

I looked at this carefully.  I can buy 100 th for 864 and 60 days of power for 231  total cost is 1095.

or pay  2900 + 200 + 700 = 3800 to own a 110 machine outright.

Now if they were not stone cold thieves and gave you the ability to buy 360 days of power at 1380 along with 864 for  grand total of  2244 I would argue that it could be worth while.

since you get 100th for 360 days with power cost included for 2244.  They will not guarantee this and cancel contract if btc tanks or soars.

I had a lucrative contract  with them  back in feb 2017  and when btc soared they cancelled the contract in Nov 2017.

There is a huge chance they will simply take the money you paid them and not mine at all just buy coins with the cash you give them and pay them back over time.

Simply cancel contract due to whatever reason they choose. if btc shifts in price.  a 360 day contract with 60 days power is 1095 in btc that is .166 btc right now. add .035  and you are at .201 btc for 120 days of the contract and power cost.

They simply hold that until may 20 and slowly pay   0.0008 a day back to you on may 20  I need to check this again tomorrow

120 days later that is 0.096  they cancel  contract for a bs reason  0.105 profit.  they never purchased any gear at all.

if you keep mining to day 240   you will need to give them a grand total of .271 btc  get paid 0.192  they make 0.079 btc

just by holding your btc.

This is flat price flat diff calculation.

lastly  if you go 360  contract is dead.  0.0008 x 360 = 0.288 paid back in btc   but you gave them  .341 btc

I figured the ½ ing in as a starting point.

So if we stay flat you lose 0.053 btc at 6600 = 350 usd loss

It is not impossible to turn  a profit but it is very difficult.  you would need to pay in .166 btc now worth 1095

wait till may 20  to start getting coin.  BTC needs to whale like a mofo. unreal    20 k 30 k  then your power cost in btc drops  but diff will go up.

so I can't quite figure a case that works exactly in your favor.  but  just hold the .166 chances are more then 90%  it will do better then if you buy the contract.

I am a bit tired maybe I missed something but I do not think so.

[TheYankeesWin!]

The dow dropped to  18591
so  feb 20 price  29,219 would mean   -36.37%
and feb 24 price  27,960 would mean   -33.50%

gold  price went up to 1670
feb 24 price was 1682  that means    -0.71 %

silver price went up to 13.92
feb  24 price  was 18.87  that means -26.23%

Platinum price went up to 693
feb 24 price was 975        that means -28.92%

btc went up to 6739
feb 24 price was 9588  that means  -29.71 %   but when diff moves 15%   the figures for miners  not holders  will be.

6739 x 1.15 = 7749/9588 =   -19.17%

So the trend is leave stocks go to metals and BTC to protect assets.

Gold is king -0.71%

BTC ,Silver and platinum are  between -26.23 and -29.71%

BTC will get a nice boost for miners on wed the 25th when diff moves -15%

Rich people made a lot of money/asset moves since feb 20.  They have less faith in stocks then in metals and cryptocoins.

[philipma1957]

We may not adjust on Wed we may adjust on Thur at 1 or 2 in the morning. (eastern standard time)   diff is past -16%

I have noticed that large diff drops can cause price pressure.

Ie price chases diff vs diff chasing price.

So if we drop 16% in about 12 hours I expect price to drop under 6,000 within 2 days.

I am hoping it is a wrong assumption.

[mikeywith]

We may not adjust on Wed we may adjust on Thur at 1 or 2 in the morning. (eastern standard time)   diff is past -16%

2009 blocks are gone so far and 7 more to go, block time average for this round is 11.6 minutes, so 7*11.6 = 81.2 minutes, based on that we will actually adjust on Wed (Today as far EST is concerned) at about 11:10pm.

Meanwhile, I have got one 1*S17 pro + 1*S17+ 1*T17e + 1*T17 (214th) that are not hashing because of the voltage regulator, my diagnoses so far tell me it's the MCB on that regulator that needs replacement, I drove there earlier only to inspect it, I had to no time to actually change it, I don't even have a spare MCB (a bad mistake, lesson learned) and shops here are forced to close pretty early, so I have to wait until the morning, go grab an MCB head to the small farm and pray it's only the MCB that needs replacement.

I remembered our talk about "not being able to visit your miners when needed due to the virus", will luckily we are not on a complete shut-down / quarantine so I can still manage to go check on them despite the fact that it's hard to fill gas for the car nowadays, and I am also sure this won't last long, pretty soon I won't be able to go there anymore, so my plan is to fix that voltage regulator,  set the S17 pros and 1*Whatsminer m21s on low power mode (less power = less heat and less potential issues), I also think I am over-loading one of the regulators so I might actually un-plug one T17 42th and bring it home, so if I can squeeze it here, if not then it can sit here until this virus is health with.

times like this, you wish you had your miners in the basement with all the replacements/spares you may need 

[philipma1957]

2 blocks left to go  we will be right near -15.9%

coins are 6679

pool.viabtc will shift from

0.00001520 btc  a th

to

0.00001690? btc  a th

16% swing is a lot for me

2 ph will earn a lot more each day.

we are now at 13.9. vs 16.5

pretty nice drop.

[mikeywith]

2 blocks left to go  we will be right near -15.9%

2009 blocks are gone so far and 7 more to go, block time average for this round is 11.6 minutes, so 7*11.6 = 81.2 minutes, based on that we will actually adjust on Wed (Today as far EST is concerned) at about 11:10pm.

There you have it.

Latest Block:   622944  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   153.5300%  (1 / 0.65 expected, 0.35 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   13912524048945.91XXXXXXX

That's a neat drop if you ask me, happened at 10:50pm EST, 20 minutes faster than my estimates, that's way too-off on a scale of 7 blocks  , goes out to show the diff is really hard to predict.

[philipma1957]

Now we need to see if this big drop in diff hurts price.

Back in dec 2018 we had some price chase diff movement.

not the typical diff chases price.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Now we need to see if this big drop in diff hurts price.

Back in dec 2018 we had some price chase diff movement.

not the typical diff chases price.

623,000   F2Pool   1   366   366   1,464   0.00000000   12.5 + 0.00000000 BTC   2020-03-26 10:41:43   
https://btc.com/00000000000000000007f1e007a4a71f991981f060cd2c3978d1e4a42ca30139

622,999   F2Pool   1   366   366   1,464   0.00000000   12.5 + 0.00000000 BTC   2020-03-26 10:41:39   
https://btc.com/0000000000000000000a078deebc4a2dccdb1b30efefb027b75cd7e13bc620af

is this the return of them mining empty blocks when the network is congested?

Shocking tbh...

[philipma1957]

four second gap between 622,999 and 623,000 so a small amount of fees makes sense as time to fit them was 4 seconds.  still would think there was a few tx ids

i wonder how long the time gap was between block 622,999 and 622,998

kano has done some good info on really fast blocks .  i am pretty sure he posted some 1 or 2 or 3 second block stats and while they did not have a ton of tx ids they had some.

maybe he can post up some info on this.

[stompix]

The network wasn't congested at all at that time:

623003   2020-03-26 10:55   F2Pool   1,482   1,817.143
623002   2020-03-26 10:43   BTC.com   481   611.346
623001   2020-03-26 10:41   Poolin   212   214.741
623000   2020-03-26 10:41   F2Pool   1   0.366
622999   2020-03-26 10:41   F2Pool   1   0.366
622998   2020-03-26 10:41   AntPool   43   79.943
622997   2020-03-26 10:40   Poolin   1,740   853.724
622996   2020-03-26 10:40   F2Pool   1,518   1,879.421
622995   2020-03-26 10:24   BTC.com   967   399.042
622994   2020-03-26 10:20   Unknown   1,523   757.777
622993   2020-03-26 10:12   Poolin   1,550   1,437.050
622992   2020-03-26 10:05   ViaBTC   558   420.488
622991   2020-03-26 10:03   Poolin   1,719   942.959

We had 13 blocks in an hour, more than twice, the mempool was already dried up.

Of course, ironically, as I'm typing this the block is about 30 minutes late, we're already on 41 minutes late . And I doubt we will see any congestion soon after all Coinbase is finally batching transactions.

As for the diff, any bets? Mine is from 5% to 7.5% up. Also, I'm willing to bet I'll be off by at least 10%  

[philipma1957]

No need to bet.  As to next diff it will go upwards if prices stay at 6600.

lets look at a 5 cent power guy

100 th is earning $12.03 ssd a day lets say it is a 40watt a th unit that is 96 kwatts

2 s17 profits
100th  $12.03 -6.00 =  6.03 profit      at 6 cent power
100th  $12.03 -5.00 =  7.03 profit      at 5 cent power
100th  $12.03 -4.00 =  8.03 profit      at 4 cent power
100th  $12.03 -3.00 =  9.03 profit      at 3 cent power
100th  $12.03 -2.00 =  10.03 profit    at 2 cent power

8 s9's set to 80watts
100th  $12.03 - 12.00 = 3 cents  profit    at 6 cent power
100th  $12.03 -  10.00 = 2.03     profit    at 5 cent power
100th  $12.03 -   8.00 =  4.03     profit    at 4 cent profit     this means all my s9's are back in profit
100th  $12.03 -   6.00 =  6.03     profit    at 3 cent profit
100th  $12.03 -   4.00 =  8.03    profit     at 2 cent power.

these charts show a lot of gear being turned back on at 6600 price.
100th  $12.03 -1.00 =  11.03 profit