It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[mikeywith]

By the way.   bsv and bch do 1/2 ing very soon. this could bump btc diff.

Good point, the average hashrate for both coins has been around 5-8E for the past month, let's use a worst-case scenario and say 8E, without prices change in different ratios between those two coins and BTC, it's safe to assume that 4E will move to BTC at the worst-case scenario, BSV halving is in 7 days, so that will not count towards the current epoch, BCH's halving is in 5 days, so some of it's hashpower might actually move to BTC this epoch.

Current BTC hashrate is about 107E, so 4E = 3.7%, not a big deal, goes out to show that only 3.7% of bitcoin hashrate's can attack the two shit coins with a 51% attack simultaneously.

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[philipma1957]

actually using the same algorithm for multiple coins is really bad.  we have had more then one coin on an algorithm shared by multiple coins get attacked.

merged mining ⛏ say btc and nmc is not a big deal.

but mining bsv btc bch all separately will one day have an attack.

[stompix]

Current BTC hashrate is about 107E, so 4E = 3.7%, not a big deal, goes out to show that only 3.7% of bitcoin hashrate's can attack the two shit coins with a 51% attack simultaneously.

Hihi, I've thought about the same a week ago:

I'm really concerned what happens to the gear that gets turned off, right now there is enough gear not mining to launch not a 51% but a 300% attack on bcash.

And bcash still has bitmain behind which might try and support the hash rate but bsv might be done for. It's not like one year before where you had to search a lot around for gear to buy, right not there is a ton of it around, assuming 5-20$ per TH it will cost probably less than 50 million to attack bsv, the only problem would be getting the facility and the power but it's doable. If you rent it's even easier...

... +4.4594% / +5.2636%

I expected a better rebound, but lets' see, we're testing 7000 again.

[mikeywith]

actually using the same algorithm for multiple coins is really bad. 

I disagree, from mining as business's point of view it is actually good to have all those coins on the same algo, they keep a portion of the hashrate away from btc so mining btc gets a little bit more profitable,  adding up all sha256 coins we get what, 10E for an example? That is about 10% more profit mining btc, from another point of view you may be right, but profit wise, i disagree.

TH it will cost probably less than 50 million to attack bsv, the only problem would be getting the facility and the power but it's doable.

Bsv hashrate gets to as low as 1-2E for some days, after the halving, you can probably attack it by a single order on nicehash  , however, there is little to no financial incentives to attack bsv.

[philipma1957]

diff is still good

Latest Block:   624240  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   104.6773%  (1297 / 1239.05 expected, 57.95 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   13912524048945.91XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 14477535159570 and 14563730575574
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0612% and +4.6807%
Previous Retarget:   March 25, 2020 at 10:51 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 7:50 AM  (in 4d 18h 28m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 9:45 AM  (in 4d 20h 23m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 8h 59m 10s and 13d 10h 53m 45s

+4.677%   and price at 6730

works for me it can stay    in this area as far as I am concerned.

720 blocks to go to next jump.

[philipma1957]

Some real price movement we broke 7000  and are at 7104

diff is up 5.1% with 380 blocks to go.

Can't complain.   

[mikeywith]

Some real price movement we broke 7000  and are at 7104

Strange enough, the price keeps going up while diff is slowing down

Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6016% and +4.6514%

1812 blocks down, 204 to go (34 hours estimated) to next adjustment, I expect us to close this round with +5% in terms of difficulty and coins at about flat $7400 or slightly below, with diff staying at 14.5T and coins prices above $7000 I expect a ton of gears to go back online, and the following diff adjustment could go to as high as 10%, in other words, back to difficulty's ATH.

[philipma1957]

we agree on the 5% for this jump.

next jump is tricky if we start on the 10th of april we could squeeze 2 jumps

then the 1/2 ing comes.

So I have a few thoughts

turn every single piece of old gear on mine the two jumps then shut the gear off.
or buy coin.

I think buying coin is smarter then turning the older less efficient gear back on.

Unless you have super cheap power.

[stompix]

I might have finally guessed one right, by taking a 2.5% spread and this just by a thread  

As for the diff, any bets? Mine is from 5% to 7.5% up. Also, I'm willing to bet I'll be off by at least 10%  

Strange enough, the price keeps going up while diff is slowing down

Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6016% and +4.6514%

1812 blocks down, 204 to go (34 hours estimated) to next adjustment, I expect us to close this round with +5% in terms of difficulty and coins at about flat $7400 or slightly below...

... between +5.2517% and +5.2932%

Slowly but surely crawling back there, probably next epoch we will see another slight increase from miners running from bch and bsv due to their halving and as you said, we might be back to ATH levels. And with a slight increase in price, maybe by 8000-8500 once all this corona stuff finally stops and business returns to normal we will have an uneventful halving, and by that, I mean no drop in blocks time to 15-16 minutes and mempool clogs and all that bad stuff that comes with it.

Oh, and bitdeer is still cutting prices:

Lowest Computing Power Fee $0.0309/T/Day

after a 10%, another 20% on their "accelaration" plan

$0.0232/T/Day

[philipma1957]

I see a jump of 2-6%  on the april 8 to april 21/22 adjustment

I see a jump of 2-6% on the April 21/22 to may 4/5/6 adjustment

The ½ ing is due in may  around 10-15

at the all-time high diff and ½ the coins a ton of gear is dead unless price is 11k

so the diff in may on the 18th or so will drop somewhat
and the diff in very early june will drop again.

I don't ever go far out but i think I will be close to the 4 jumps after this on tomorrow .

we are at 13.9 for a day

+5-6     say april 8    we go to 14.7
+2-6     Say april 21  we go to  15.6
+2-6     say may 5     we go to 16.4  close to all time high
 -4-7     say may 19   we drop to 15.7
-10-15  say june 2     we drop to 13.8 


I base this on a price of 8k-9k by june 2

I never try to reach out this far in diff guesses but i feel safe enough to think this is correct.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

I would agree with you on the diff looking at the way the market it at the moment I think it may be a push to be up at 11k by then so we may see this play out like your saying.

I can see bitcoin going back to the hands of the many rather than the few in the coming months if the price takes a nose dive we keep hitting resistance around the 7k mark which is no use for the larger farms.

If we do see a large scale drop in the hash rate over the next few months it's going to make for some interesting times again in the bitcoin world.

Thanks for the update and I hope you and your wife are feeling better.

Magic

[philipma1957]

Yeah with out price moving up ½ ing will take out a ton of hash in May.

As for the Health report for us in NJ,NT,CT

I got better it is as if I was not sick from dec 31 to jan 20  with corona-v?

My wife has finally  begun  to show a good recovery  she was really sick from  dec 26 to feb 20  with a 3 day hospitalization jan 13 to jan 16  also possible corona-v.

Both of us have normal temps   we take it 3 times a day
both of us have 95-98 blood O2   vs  91-93 blood O2

She is off the inhaler  and still has good O2

She is now using flonase for post nasal drip and she does not  get as much in her lungs forcing her to cough for 20-30 minutes at a time.

We know 3 of her 4 cousins are recovering but one is still on a ventilator  we worry for him.

[philipma1957]

okay we had jump 4 am EST  IT WAS TO 14.7

Latest Block:   624991  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   81.1001%  (32 / 39.46 expected, 7.46 behind)
Current Difficulty:   14715214060656.53XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12639306117189 and 14639488989542
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.1072% and -0.5146%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 4:32 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 22, 2020 at 7:00 AM  (in 13d 19h 53m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 25, 2020 at 10:50 AM  (in 16d 23h 43m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 27m 57s and 17d 6h 18m 10s

to early to tell what is up.

BCH did its ½ ing it now pays a big 6.3 cents a th daily   vs 12.1 cents a th for BTC

BSV will ½ in a day

I expect the hash to leave them and come to BTC this week.

[jbillk]

There is no need for new miners to join, a single miner can keep the blockchain going, whoever is profitable will stay, whoever mines at loss will leave and wait for either a drop in difficulty or a rise in price, if non of the above happens, it means there are ENOUGH miners and the economy of mining can't accept newcomers unless they 1- find a cheaper source of power 2- buy more efficient gears, rinse and repeat, this is not the first halving, not the last, 2 previous halvings went perfectly fine, what makes you think this one is going to be any different?

Not saying we are going to stop completely. I think there is a possibility that it could take a vary long time to the next adjustment after the halving. The difficulty and infrastructure was very small in the previous halving compared to today. We are at 100EH now, how much of the 100EH is profitable with 6.25 block reward? Margins seem already very tight as is for the majority of miners at current prices and difficulty.

[philipma1957]

No it won't  take as long as you think.

Any big holder has a vested interest in keeping hash rate up.

The worst case is an instant 50%  hashrate drop on day 1 which equals   28 days until the next jump.

3C3svyckMn7kNXWKTaeAP3KVp6YBoSjvG7

[mikeywith]

I think there is a possibility that it could take a vary long time to the next adjustment after the halving...

The last block of the current 12.5BTC period will be 630,000 which will be during difficulty epoch number 312 which stars at block 628992, so we have

Epoch          Start                            Halving                                  End

 310            624960                            -                                       626975
 311            626976                            -                                       628991
 312            628992   (1008)          630,000        (1006)                631007

In other words, 1010 blocks would have been mined with 12.5BTC and only 1006 blocks will be mined at 6.25BTC, so assuming 50% of the hashrate will drop then it means instead of roughly being stuck in the epoch for another week it will be two weeks.

So half epoch  = 1 week
second half >  at 100% hashrate = 1 week / at 50% hashrate = 2 weeks

so the worst-case scenario will be 1+2 (3 weeks) before difficulty drops again - 25%.

The above are rough figures, not taking price change into account, also -50% drop in hashrate is not possible, it's only possible if miners were barely profitable, which is not the case, there is enough room for more than 50% of miners to stay, so in my estimation, the worst I expect in terms of difficulty adjustment is 4 extra days.

The difficulty and infrastructure was very small in the previous halving compared to today.

The numbers don't matter, it's the ratio the does, a 100ET is no different than 1EH prior to the halving 4 years ago, the impact is the same.

[philipma1957]

he pushes that fear a lot.  It is possible but you need the ½ ing and a real crash in price along with government action against chinese asic companies to all occur on the 1st day of a difficulty adjustment.

So do I think it could happen yes do I think it is likely to happen no.

If price drops to 3000
if ½ occurs right then
if china raids every big farm they can
if china arrest multiple asic builders
 if a natural disaster destroys a usa farm and a canada farm  he would be correct.

Note all must happen within 1 or 2 days at the beginning of an adjustment period.

[stompix]

Probably is just luck playing with us:

... between -3.9804% and -0.2584%

In theory, at least 1-1.5% should have come from BCH, which is not doing well at all:
Since block 630000 (8 hours ago) only 23 blocks, 24hours - 126 blocks, Avg. time between blocks: 685.71 s.
6 blocks in the last 4 hours...

BSV is next, 1 day and a few hours to go...

If price drops to 3000
if ½ occurs right then
if china raids every big farm they can
if china arrest multiple asic builders
 if a natural disaster destroys a usa farm and a canada farm  he would be correct.

I think that 3 and 4 could trigger the first as a panic sell-off, if they will do it in public and let the world know about with their propaganda machine, but with the current economic crisis looming it's probably the last thing they want to do, more unemployed people, less exports. As for the last, the natural disaster, we already have one in the making  , a major flood or earthquake right now would make everything go down, not just bitcoin.

[jbillk]

The numbers don't matter, it's the ratio the does, a 100ET is no different than 1EH prior to the halving 4 years ago, the impact is the same.

I think numbers do matter, because 4 years ago it was more of a hobby, more decentralized, mining at a loss is not a big deal. Now it's an industry, mining farms need to pay their power bills. The will just turn off and wait for the difficulty to drop. Now you require the same electricity as a small country to keep the network running. The losses will be much higher in terms of $.

We will see what happens in 30 days. I'm nut FUDing, just speculating. Just being contrarian.

[philipma1957]

I get the argument. But I have typed before in this thread that 75,000,000 USD is enough money to run over 50eh for a month.  So if 17,000,000 btc has been mined

at 7,000 a coin that is 119 billion
at 6,000 a coin that is 102 billion
at 5,000 a coin that is   85 billion
at 4,000 a coin that is   68 billion
at 3,000 a coin that is   51 billion
at 2,000 a coin that is   34 billion
at 1,000 a coin that is   17 billion

So I am certain that the 75 million in power would be spent till the next adjustment

with the ½ factor and any of the prices above.

Which means you need destroyed gear and lots of it along with both of the above for your issue to happen.

Now  do i think price can be tanked to 1,000 sure if the right people do it.
do I think they will do it no I don't think so.

the ½ ing over makes your example possible for 1 adjustment.

so we need the ½ ing on day 1 of the adjustment
we need a really low price point on the same day
we need ½ the gear to be turned off.
we need the other ½ to be compromised down to ⅛ destroyed confiscated etc
we need all asic builders to shut down

which would mean 8 x 13 = 104 days to next adjustment.

Now you also are saying in addition to all of the above  that no one will step up to rent  any of the gear turned off .

You can bet people will want to rent to save their held coins.

So it is more likely  a second far more deadly wave of corona-v 2x happens we have already have this history during the spanish flu.

So rather then push an unlikely problem such as you mention  which is possible but really not so likely.  why not ask do you think the second wave of corona-v happens and do you think it will be really bad like the spanish flu was.

lets try it another way.  what did you think is the chance of all the wrong things happening such as you mention.

1 in 10
1 in 100
1 in 1000
1 in 10,000

vs corona-v has  a far more deadly second wave

1 in 5
1 in 50
1 in 500

I would guess the odd above far easier for corona-v 2x to occur then your idea.

my guesses are in bold type.