It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[mikeywith]

... let's hope the sheds in Eastern China don't fall prey to real floods or again sensationalism.

Sits in a Samsung closed meeting wishing that nothing goes wrong with iPhone, .

Not sure if all miners are truly wishing the best to all those massive mining farms in China, after all, every other miner is a competitor, with that being said, the more hashrate we have in total, the more secured and valuable bitcoin is, so if 99% of the hashrate left bitcoin, it doesn't mean the remaining 1% will be making 99 times the profit because then bitcoin will be worth much less, but for short-term gains, I am sure many miners hope for those floods to reach the top of the mountains where those heavy gears are.

Here is the latest update on difficulty:

Current Pace:   103.4899%  (1507 / 1456.18 expected, 50.82 ahead)
Next Difficulty:   between 17508129394022 and 17547630350660
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.3062% and +3.5393%
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 12:16 PM  (in 3d 10h 41m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 40m 10s and 13d 13h 23m 30s

We are cooling off, this will still take as to a new ATH above the current ATH of 17.35 T.

[1714671639]

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[1714671639]

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[1714671639]

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[philipma1957]

The interesting thing is will we have a price breakout. Side movement here is okay by me. Alt's are picking up a bit I increased my gpus and I am auto converting the eth they mine into BTC.

i wonder if a lot of others are building up gpus to earn btc indirectly.  This tends to mean btc is being purchased more by nice hash and other auto converting mining places. It tends to build up btc price due to transaction increases an due to demand for btc. Fall should prove very interesting indeed.

[mikeywith]

We just hit a new all-time high, how are you doing guys doing with these numbers?



https://btc.com/stats/diff

Looking at the difficulty chart especially the one to on the right (Log Scale) which is a better representation of large amounts of data points, you can clearly see the trend angle has started to flatten from mid-2019, what do you think is causing this? I believe there are mainly two reasons.

1- Technology improvements slow down the further we go, and we have gone so far since the first ASIC miner, it makes sense that mining gears efficiency starts to increase one bit at a time and no more 3x, 2x or even 1x more efficient gears.

2- Price hasn't kept up with difficulty, it has been 2.5 years since we made a new ATH in price, while we keep making new ATHs in difficulty even in bear markets.

My take on this hasn't changed, the days of crazy high jumps in difficulty are over, probably most gears that can be turned on are already mining and not much room is left, unless we see a considerable increment in price or a new invention in the electricity industry, nothing major is going to happen.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

I agree, esp with point-1.
Chip technology started hitting the point of diminishing return regarding cost vs efficiency with BM's 7nm miners. Ja their 5nm are a bit better but I do not see them pushing for anything smaller for at least another few years. For one, the needed support technology to make, much less mass produce, smaller feature sizes does not yet exist outside of the lab. By then using Ge vs Si will be the game changer (switching threshold for Ge is 300mv or lower vs ~700mv for Si) as it is just too freakin' expensive to use a smaller size for the tiny possible gain in eff.

[philipma1957]

We will move sideways for a long time. Unless there is large institutional investment in coin.

The upside for btc price is that it is under 260 billion for all the coins. The world has around 100 trillion in gold ,silver, platinum and stocks . So btc has under a 1% share of that 💯 trillion. To be at 1% btc would be about 50k. It could happen fast. To me we are all chasing this idea. It is why diff grows. It will continue to grow barring a radical long term price drop to 4-5k.

Efficiency we were at 37 watts with the s17pro with stock low setting. There have been claims of  30 watts with s17pro aftermarket firmware.

The new gear s19pro says it does 29 watts.

s-1. 2000 watts a th
s-3. 1000 watts  a th
s-5.   500 watts a th
s-7.   250 watts a th
s-9.   110 watts a th
s-15.   60 watts a th
s- 17.  40 watts a th
s-19.   29 watts a th

s-?      24? watts a th

so we are flat the eff gear is flat
so sideways is where we are at.

[mikeywith]

That's a great point, as far as I know, germanium costs way more than Silicon, way harder to keep cold and but can achieve much higher frequency, but the fact that in most applications Silicon is the preferred semiconductor shows that up to now and perhaps in the near future there is no changing in that.

The world has around 100 trillion in gold ,silver, platinum and stocks . So btc has under a 1% share of that 💯 trillion. To be at 1% btc would be about 50k.

If 50k is going to be the end of it, then current gears can take care of that, perhaps another more 2-3 generations and then we hit the maximum, also I believe that the higher bitcoin price goes the less incentives to make more efficient gears, if BTC hit 100k even old S1s become profitable again, and once the profit margin is so huge, efficiency matters less.

in other words say antminer S25 does 200TH at 3000W, at 5 cents per kWh you will be paying $3.6 a day when 200TH make $20 a day, what reasons would you have to buy S27 that does 200TH at 2800W? 2.8kw is $3.36 a day that's 24 cents difference, by the time we get to S25, getting those 200w will cost way too much to be justifiable.

Should the price go down or remain constant, we will see mining manufacturers push to squeeze the last bit of their 7nm and 5nm.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

That's a great point, as far as I know, germanium costs way more than Silicon, way harder to keep cold and but can achieve much higher frequency, but the fact that in most applications Silicon is the preferred semiconductor shows that up to now and perhaps in the near future there is no changing in that.

Yep.

Fun fact: the 1st transistors created in 1947 were made from Ge and it is still the preferred material for high-radiation areas such as in space because Ge is pretty much immune to lattice damage caused by high-energy particles and gamma rays.

In the early 1960's Si really took over not only because its temperature drift coefficient for switching levels (digital on/off thresholds) and bias needs for analog applications is far more stable over temp changes but also because it can withstand far higher temperatures before thermal avalanche occurs and Si has much lower current leakage than Ge. Those 3 points are what is continuing to be roadblocks to using it.

edit: Found a good article from 2016 on the push to replace Si with Ge

[philipma1957]

Article was a good read. We may have more advancement for ten years or so.

I wonder what we max out at. 400th at 3000 watts would be cool to see one day.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

See my latest Node size post re: more advances in the pipeline regarding things that will increase performance.

[philipma1957]

[...]

Well it is funny it looks like we may drop lower

Latest Block:   645890  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.9761%  (771 / 778.98 expected, 7.98 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   16947802333946.61
Current Difficulty:   17557993035167.3
Next Difficulty:   between 17410878040930 and 17466692972978
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.8379% and -0.5200%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 4:19 AM  (+3.6004%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 7, 2020 at 6:28 AM  (in 8d 16h 19m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 7, 2020 at 7:48 AM  (in 8d 17h 38m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 9m 1s and 14d 3h 28m 33s

I am looking at doing very little asic growth and maybe some gpu growth at the moment.

[mikeywith]

Throughout the "flattening" periods it wasn't all just  small increments, it did consist of little ups and little downs, of course, we will always go up more than down, but the ratio gets squeezed slowly as long as price doesn't go higher, for example

epoch 1 : +3%
epoch 2 : +2%
epoch 3 :  -2%
epoch 4 : +4%
epoch 5 : -3%

so 9% up vs 5% down, so 4% up in 10 weeks, the funny thing about mining probability is that even if the hashrate was dead stable we will still have this small variance due to the nature of luck, so when we see +-1 to -+2% I think it's safe to assume that nothing major in the hashrate happened and it's rather a combination of luck and some short internet/power outages.

Here is the latest update:

Current Pace:   97.5577%  (867 / 888.70 expected, 21.7 behind)
Current Difficulty:   17557993035167.3
Next Difficulty:   between 17157392846813 and 17285501142564
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.2816% and -1.5520%
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 7, 2020 at 5:00 PM  (in 8d 1h 33m 42s)

[Last of the V8s]

Some China mining fud or news that might affect the difficulty

Exclusive: China's Inner Mongolia suddenly issued a policy on the 24th, requiring the cancellation of preferential electricity prices for the crypto mining, which will increase the overall electricity price by about 1/3. Miners are worried about Xinjiang will follow.

A google translate of the Weixin article referenced in his follow-up tweet (so neither company gets the clicks!)

Code:

[quote]Wu said that the blockchain was exclusively informed that on the 24th, the Inner Mongolia Department of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Mining Enterprises' Participation in Inner Mongolia Electric Power Multilateral Trading Market" to Inner Mongolia Electric Power (Group) Co., Ltd.


The notice stated that at the end of 2019, on-site inspections of 30 big data and cloud computing companies in 7 leagues and cities were carried out, and 21 mining companies were found, and the qualifications for participating in the listing of characteristic industries were suspended. After verification for companies that no longer conduct mining Perform recovery.


According to the notice, in accordance with the requirements of the state and autonomous region on guiding enterprises to withdraw from the "mining" business, in order to effectively support the sustainable and healthy development of cloud computing and big data industries in our region, and to further regulate power market transactions, please publish the list of enterprises.


The 21 companies include most of the large mines well known in the industry, and the rest are mainly normal IDC companies. But there are also some mining companies that are not on the list. The requirements of this notice are more detailed, and industry professionals worry that it is different from the past and the implementation will not be hastily ended.


In 2006, the Inner Mongolia Power Exchange Center was established. In May 2010, the Inner Mongolia Electric Power Multilateral Trading Market was officially put into operation, becoming my country's first officially operated provincial power market. As of October 2019, the number of power market members has reached 1,820, and the cumulative cost of electricity consumption has been reduced by 30.01 billion yuan. The multilateral trading market allows related power generation, power supply and electricity users to determine electricity prices in a more flexible way, which is different from the national unified pricing.


For mines, after participating in multilateral transactions, the electricity fee is 2-3 gross per kWh (mainstream is 2.6 gross). If you cannot participate in multilateral transactions, some people guess that the normal electricity cost is 3.847 gross, and there are also speculations that large industrial electricity charges are 0.47 gross. . This means that electricity charges for mines in Inner Mongolia may rise by 1/3.


In July, Inner Mongolia ended its two-and-a-half-month on-site inspection by the coal-related corruption inspection team. Inner Mongolia Electric Power (Group) Co., Ltd. is also a company that routinely inspects. The inspection team concluded that: “It urges relevant departments to recover 6.732 billion yuan in taxes and fees and 4.836 billion yuan in proceeds from mining rights.”


At present, we cannot know why the verification information at the end of 19th happened suddenly on August 24, nor can it be judged whether this is a short-term behavior or will continue to be strictly enforced. As the mining industry is in a policy fuzzy zone, changes in wind direction occur from time to time.


On November 11 last year, the Department of Industry and Information Technology of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued the "Notice on the Joint Inspection of the Clean-up and Rectification of Virtual Currency "Mining" Enterprises", requiring the focus on finding out that it has nothing to do with the real economy, avoids supervision, and consumes more energy. This inspection is carried out with the purpose of "big data industry" as a package of virtual currency "mining" companies that enjoy preferential policies on local electricity prices, land and taxes. The list of companies announced this time is suspected to be the result of this round of inspections in November last year.


The verification in November last year was a follow-up to the "Notice on Inspection and Reorganization of Virtual Currency "Mining" Enterprises" issued on August 30 a year ago. The notice emphasized the implementation of the "National Financial Work Conference and the National Internet Financial Risk Special Rectification Working Group Symposium and the relevant instructions of the leaders of the autonomous region", and required the clean-up and orderly exit of virtual currency "mining" enterprises in the region.


For the mining industry this year, there are some variables in the policy. Sichuan is advocating the consumption of mines in the demonstration area, but at the same time and Yunnan are cracking down on the traditional direct power supply. Inner Mongolia's current crackdown policy has caused concerns from all walks of life about the upcoming dry season, especially in Xinjiang. Whether it will be affected, the policy will be emulated. At present, the power load of the mines in Inner Mongolia is lower than that of Sichuan and Xinjiang.


At the central policy level, on January 2, 2018, the Internet Financial Risk Special Rectification Office Work Leading Group issued an internal document requesting all localities to guide enterprises within their jurisdiction to exit the "mining" business in an orderly manner, and regularly report work progress. The document refers to the mining industry wasting resources and fueling virtual currency hype. The 2019 National Development and Reform Commission’s draft of the industrial structure adjustment guidance catalogue once listed cryptocurrency mining as an obsolete industry, but this entry was deleted in the body of the announcement on November 6. The Energy Bureau is under the jurisdiction of the National Development and Reform Commission. It is reported that insiders have studied the use of mining to dissipate water and electricity.


On April 29 this year, the Sichuan Provincial Financial Work Leading Group Office issued the "Notice on Guiding Enterprises to Exit Virtual Currency "Mining" Activities in an Orderly Way", emphasizing that the policy guidance of various ministries and commissions on virtual currency "mining" activities is highly consistent and guide The job requirements for quitting have not changed.


But overall, there are some trends in the compliance of the cryptocurrency industry. Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, revealed that the issue of regulating the 1CO regulations was discussed in the last revision of the Securities Law. The Supreme Law and the National Development and Reform Commission also emphasized once again, "Do our best to maintain the operational value of corporate property. Strengthen the protection of new rights and interests such as digital currency, network virtual property, and data." The industry generally expects that encryption mining can also make progress in compliance.[/quote]

The electricity pricing is of course also in Chinese yuan/RMB. edit see next 2 posts

As if that wasn't hard enough to follow, or to work out the scale of any changes, a couple of days later-

Breaking: On the 26th, the former boss of the Inner Mongolia Electric Power Company was investigated by the CCP. Three days ago, Wu exclusively disclosed that Inner Mongolia had suspended the preferential electricity prices of 21 large Bitcoin mining farms.

There are many large bitcoin mines in Inner Mongolia, including those of almost all mining machine manufacturers in China. It will resulting in electricity tariffs rising by one-third or more.

Since Bitcoin mining cannot be relied upon in China, it has to rely on local officials and breed a lot of corruption. The investigation and punishment of corruption in the power system in Inner Mongolia may have some negative effects on Bitcoin mining.

(some nice pics of bleak Southern Mongolia, oh sorry "Inner Mongolia", in that thread)

So something or nothing as so often in this game. But the CCP still gradually pushing mining out of China?


Meanwhile in USA government sponsored mining shenanigans (although the ghastly Peter Thiel only really peripherally financially involved)

https://twitter.com/btcking555/status/1297967628657537024
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/daily/75873/bitcoin-miner-layer1-pitch-deck
https://www.coindesk.com/peter-theil-dcg-backed-btc-mining-firm-layer1-accused-of-patent-infringement

basically lying about the nm size of their tapeout to raise money for mines in Texas, with Thiel blahing on about needing mining in the USA because 'national security'.

[mikeywith]

For mines, after participating in multilateral transactions, the electricity fee is 2-3 gross per kWh (mainstream is 2.6 gross). If you cannot participate in multilateral transactions, some people guess that the normal electricity cost is 3.847 gross, and there are also speculations that large industrial electricity charges are 0.47 gross. . This means that electricity charges for mines in Inner Mongolia may rise by 1/3.

The numbers are a bit weird, is it a translation bug or the author made a mistake somewhere? 3.8 Chinese Yuan for normal electricity means 55 cents USD, I highly doubt that the number is accurate.

Now for the industrial rate of 0.47 its is about 7 cents which is also a bit high, I don't know the exact numbers but I know that electricity prices in Sichuan and Xinjiang are at about 4 cents, and a lot lower during the raining reasons from around May to September, what is stopping miners in Inner Mongolia to move their farms to Sichuan or Xinjiang?


Nice read as always V8, thanks for sharing

[Last of the V8s]

sorry sorry it says 'mao' which is a tenth of a yuan afaiu. highlighted:

对于矿场来说，参与多边交易后电费在2-3毛每度（主流为2.6毛），如果不能参与多边交易，有人猜测正常用电费用为3.847毛，也有猜测说大工业电费是0.47毛。这意味着内蒙古矿场电费可能上升1/3。

not a great sino-linguist here. can anyone confirm? would explain why they transport the rigs back to Southern Mongolia after the rainy season in Sichuan. still even with the extra 1/3rd price hike, very cheap

[vapourminer]

would explain why they transport the rigs back to Southern Mongolia after the rainy season in Sichuan.

shipping hash around the globe.. are those shipping containers fitted out for miners still a thing (saw some but havent paid attention of late)? or do they shlep thousands of individual miners around and disconnect/reconnect each one? just curious although i suppose manpower is cheap and if its only done a couple times a year..

most mining facilities ive seen (admittedly not many) are in buildings specifically built or retrofitted for mining. but if they are cheap enough to leave empty part of the year i suppose it doesnt matter.

[Last of the V8s]

eh 2 kiloclicks, 1 day's continuous travel https://goo.gl/maps/hcYXrKG6wFoxxxoYA
they do just bung 'em on trucks, there were pictures of the swap-over from ~a year back
labour, transport, rent and loss of time all cheap compared to savings on elec.
the containers were marketed by bitfury longer ago, no idea if they really sold
now you can get from here https://www.upstreamdata.ca/datacenters kinda, probably elsewhere

[mikeywith]

[...]

if it's a tenth of a Yuan then it's 0.26 Yuan which is 3.6 cents, it also says 2 to 3 so could be as low as 0.2 Yuan or 2.9 cents per Kwh, which then would justify why to move back from Sichuan.

Time                          Place                Cost

May to September      Sichuan             1-2       cents  USD
October to April          I Mongolia         2.9 -3.6 cents USD

Depending on how many gears you have, and how does it cost to move them around twice a hear, it might not be worth it for everyone but certainly is for some.

... or do they shlep thousands of individual miners around and disconnect/reconnect each one? just curious although i suppose manpower is cheap and if its only done a couple times a year.

They could be doing both, but without a doubt most of them "shlep" those gears, if all wires are ready then it takes a few seconds to connect the miner, a few people can unplug and re-plug a thousand miner in a few hours, you just need to drop it, plug in the power cord and the LAN cable and off it goes.

[philipma1957]

yeah

t17 t19
s17 s19
s17 pro. s19 pro

all need 1 pair of power cords and an eth cable a minute or 2  from the truck to the shelf to powered up.

[mikeywith]

Bitcoin touched $9980 which is a -17% from the high of this week and just about 14.5% from the opening, we might see some recovery from here, but overall this is bad for miners who are mining at the edge of being profitable if we don't make a quick bounce I expect to see some of the hashrate leave tomorrow.

Current base is as follow

Current Pace:   98.2822%  (1508 / 1534.36 expected, 26.36 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   16947802333946.61
Current Difficulty:   17557993035167.3
Next Difficulty:   between 17272843042034 and 17290673264680
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.6240% and -1.5225%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 4:49 PM  (in 3d 13h 46m 24s)

Not so many blocks left for this epoch, so I wouldn't expect a huge turnover in these numbers, maybe we wipe out the 3% we gained from the last difficulty adjustment although with only 508 blocks left to be mined that might be a bit hard to achieve.

[philipma1957]

I would love to see 9400 stay around for a few weeks. it will drop the diff a bit.