It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[mikeywith]

I never said "zero btc" or "no btc" but a significant less amount.

I quoted what you wrote.

He says that the halving is consolidating mining into the strong hands - hands that don't have to sell BTC

What I understood from "hands that don't have to sell BTC"  is that 0 BTC has to be sold by those "strong hands", anyway while in the process of searching for that statement, I remembered that I know Matt's business partner Mason (from their company name), it's been a while since we talked so figured out i'd ask him if Blockware S really think that, and his answer was that "Matt will never say such a thing', which means he also understands "don't have to sell BTC" as in 0 BTC to be sold,  but we will just call it a misquotation or a misunderstanding on my side and leave it there.

Now the fact that there are some people like phill or myself who don't have to sell BTC, or even Blockware who run about 10MW of mining gears, has nothing to do with halving, it's all about the power/business plan you have  (Mason also agrees to that), phill explained in details, as far as the halving is concerned it does have a positive impact on the minimum selling pressure but is only valid for a very short period of time (right after a difficulty drop) but it's only a matter of time before miners start adding more hashrate to compete against one another, without the price going any higher, miners will be forced to sell more bitcoin since they will be getting less of it.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the minimum sell pressure assumes that miners only sell enough to pay their bills, which is a good way to run the numbers, but if you think about it, there is no reason why wouldn't miners sell more or ALL of their BTC earnings, I am not claiming the research is wrong, I know Mason for a long time and he knows his stuff, I know and talk to many large miners, and all of them will tell you the same "we are speculating".

Do you want to hear a funny story? I personally know a guy who bought 10,000 S9s that will run on FREE power, this is only one person whom I happen to know, how many others? probably a dozen, who can count all of them and add those numbers into any research? nobody, so will the selling pressure really drop from now on (long term)? maybe yes, maybe no, IMO it's highly unlikely unless bitcoin increases in price and if we stay flat, miners will be in an equilibrium where mining revenue is too slim, and they will probably have to sell most of their btc earnings to survive for the long run.

I mean if miners are able to pay expenses without selling BTC, for many reasons - previous profit, money from other assets they have, etc. and they have a choice, then they may choose to not sell BTC if they think its a better asset to own than cash, or other assets

.

True, but that's a lot of maybes, they could buy more mining gears, they could buy gold, or of course, hold BTC, what I think that at least the majority of large miners in China sell most of their mined BTC to hedge their funds, remember that investing in mining gears, is somehow investing in bitcoin itself, your profitability depends greatly on BTC's price and existence in the first place, if things go south, you lose everything, wise investors usually know how to hedge their wealth.

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[philipma1957]

I had a long article linked to bitcointalk years ago about Chinese ghost cites.

Here is the short of it there where places in China empty apartment complexes and the like.

So how about this example 10x 20 story apartments standing empty but operational.  that is 200 stories with say 10 apartments  or 2000 empty apartments.  In the winter running gear to keep them warm is feasible.

Years ago my wife and I lived in an apartment in Astoria New York



We had a major black out  everything was dark. I said to my wife lets finish the ice cream before it melts.

I opened the fridge and it worked.  I said wtf  I later tried to figure out how it was hot wired and what it was hot wired to.  I found out it had 10 gauge wire.  But never could figure out how it was hooked up.

Since it was long before bitcoin I just ran my fridge for free .

You would be surprised how much free power is out there.

I had a buddy that was a building engineer in a few malls and later in the empire state building.  He had access to lots of power in nooks and crannies of those buildings.  These are smaller example of mine and hold people.

One or two or three machines are not much but  New York City has thousands of spots that could be doing a small operation.

So it is no longer small it is 20000 miners.   who cares if it is all s9's 20,000 x 14 =  280000 th or 280 ph


these people are around.  smaller than me.  with my 2000 th on a 50-50 split deal.  which is 1000 th for free.

they are a motorbike on the highway.  I am a van.

Yeah the big fleet it 100 to 1000 full size  greyhound buses.

[mikeywith]

I remember this story, you told me about it once, still interesting every time I read it, so free power in "great" America, let alone other countries, where I live we have access to free or nearly free power in most places, I know a few other countries, I know a country where people would set farms in the middle of nowhere, bribe someone in the power company because it's owned by the government, they hook up un-metered power line for you, let the farm run for a few months, maybe years, it's like hit and run, if the police where to find it, well it's a dozen of miners that belong to nobody, they will seize them, probably sell them for cheap on an auction for someone else to pick them up and do the exact same thing all over again, and since it takes a long enough time for the police to notice it ( if ever ) and with 0 power rate, those farms ROI in 2-4 months with the right gear in place.

This is really not just a bunch of miners running on free power, it's a TON of them, this makes mining predictions way less accurate, you can't say all S9s will shut down if difficulty gets to x and price get to y,  a huge portion of those S9s will only shut down if they fail, burn, or get seized by the government, which might be a few years from when mining with S9 is no longer profitable for anyone who actually pays for power, the same thing happened with V9 or S7, some people think nobody uses these gears anymore, but trust me, there are a lot of them still hashing their way in.

[philipma1957]

The ware house owner in clifton has 7 buildings the 2ph with mine costs

lets say 2 k of the bill  all the other business using the builds cost say 5k.

the total bill is 7k a month.  he got the long deal til 2021 oct 1.  he charges his renters 7k for power so he pays 0 cash  for the bill.

he paid zip for the gear.

and he clears 1 ph of mining every day.

he had no customer fo the spare power so  would you want to break even on the monthly power bill or would you want the coins you get from us.

his other renters still pay a decent power rate even with the markup he charges them.


So we all gain.  Downside covid-19 hurt renters income.  and now threat of riot damage.

of course mining today is not making what it did last month. but it will sort out over time.

[vickersja]

[...]

Amazing story - I had no idea this was a thing, let alone widespread.

I have a very small solar setup, 300 watts of panels and a deep cycle battery.  I keep it charged up for emergency use and for a hobby.  Gonna try to put one of those S9 space heaters on one and see what it does.  Probably need to put a few more panels on that thing.  But something to try.

[mikeywith]

I have a very small solar setup, 300 watts of panels and a deep cycle battery.  I keep it charged up for emergency use and for a hobby.  Gonna try to put one of those S9 space heaters on one and see what it does.  Probably need to put a few more panels on that thing.  But something to try.

More than a single panel for 300watts? when did you buy those? the lowest I see nowadays where I live is 300w per panel, up to 500w, running the space heater version of S9 might do, let's say it needs 300wh so that's 7200w per day, depending on where you live, say you get 5 hours of sunlight ,so all you need from the backup batteries would be  5700w per day, in batteries' language that's more like 5700*2 = 11400w since you can't really discharge a battery with more than 50% DOD, say your system is 12v so that will be 950ampH batteries, well, worse than I thought . I think 950ah will cost you about 1k,  say with you get an average quality battery with 1500 cycles at 50% dod, you are looking at about 4 years of running that S9 on batteries and solar alone, provided of course you have enough solar to charge the batteries to 100% in those 4-5 hours of sunlight.

[vickersja]

HAHA well then nevermind.  They are actually a combination of 2 - 50 watt and 1 - 100 watt renogy panels.  Had them for a few years.  I think I purchased them on Amazon.  I tinkered around with it a bit but solar is so limited for a hobbyist - unless I want to charge my cell phone or run an LED light.

[philipma1957]

[...]

you would be surprised on getting cheap batteries.  If you are near a golf course "dead" golf cart batteries are cheap.

If I was going to do a small play system I would add 1 panel a bigger one say 300watts. blend it into the 300 watts he has. source some batteries he does not need to run system all the time.

Run it 9 hours a day.   600 watts of panels to charger to batteries to inverter to s9 set to 300 watts. which would be 8 volts and 225  on brains.

way cheaper then a 24 hour setup. and for 6 hours a day he has a shot to hit a block on solo.ckpool

since he is subject to seasonal change.  He could do 4 hours in winter 6 hours in spring 8 hours in summer.

If he really looked around I would think he could do this for 500 dollars.

this never lets batteries run down as he only runs an hour after sunrise. and shuts down 1 hour before sundown.

it would be a fun project.
I will be doing a thread soon on s9 upgrades here is the link

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5253561.0

note:

it is a teaser so no info is on it.

[mikeywith]

True, the system doesn't have to run 24/7, maybe just during the day and a few hours at night, remember you need to focus on winter's numbers since this is more like a winter space heater, so say 5 hours per day from solar, maybe add 3*100ah 12 volts battery, I guess they cost about $400 and can give you 6 hours of 300 watts, so you are getting 11 hours of free mining a day for about 4-5 years.

So you looking at about 1k for the whole setup including the miner, if you run it around the winter only, maybe 6 months, this gives you about 8-10 years of heat and a ticket in the bitcoin block race.

Looking forward to more details on your project.

[vickersja]

Ill set it up and see what it can do as is and report back.  It is packed up now as we are moving around the middle of july to a new house a few minutes up the road.

[mikeywith]

then +6% next jump

after the 10% drop and should price maintain the $9000 level, we will most likely see a spike in difficulty

Current Pace:   124.7396%  (445 / 356.74 expected, 88.26 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.4502% and +24.7495%

Phil, aren't we officially difficulty prediction experts?  

Jokes aside, diff.cryptothis is undergoing some changes, a nice copy to clipboard function, and seems like dark-mode is in the making.

So at current prices and difficulty, a lot of S9s are profitable, many S19s / M30s came online, I am not surprised seeing 88 blocks ahead in under 500 blocks, looks like the jump in difficulty for this epoch will be big, maybe big enough to wipe the -9% we had.

[philipma1957]

Well I did not post here for a few days hoping to see an improvement.

Latest Block:   634040  (24 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   117.2650%  (1017 / 867.27 expected, 149.73 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   13732352106018.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 15448678128808 and 16103774579638
Next Difficulty Change:   between +12.4984% and +17.2689%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 8:30 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 7:02 AM  (in 5d 21h 59m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 7:11 PM  (in 6d 10h 8m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 11d 22h 31m 49s and 12d 10h 40m 40s

It is quite impressive we are still over +15% with 999 block to go.

and price is around 9763

a fast calculation below

100 th at 50 watts. earns 9.07 and uses 120 k-watts thus

9.07 -0.00 = 9.07. with 'free' power.  and this does not count labor
9.07 -1.20 = 7.87. with 1 cent power
9.07 -2.40 = 6.67  with 2 cent power
9.07 -3.60 = 5.47  with 3 cent power
9.07 -4.80 = 4.27. with 4 cent power
9.07 -6.00 = 3.07. with 5 cent power
9.07 -7.20 = 1.87  with 6 cent power
9.07 -8.40 = 0.67. with 7 cent power

lets say we do go 15%. the 9.07 becomes

7.71-0.00 = 7.71 with 'free' power
7.71-1.20 = 6.51 with 1 cent
7.71-2.40 = 5.31 with 2 cent
7.71-3.60 = 4.11 with 3 cent
7.71-4.80 = 2.91 with 4 cent
7.71-6.00 = 1.71 with 5 cent
7.71-7.20 = 0.51 with 6 cent  power

I used 50 watt gear as my number because I think as of now the network may be close to 50 watt gear.

[alh]

BTC price isn't going to help any at this time: $9357.

[philipma1957]

Still moving up in diff +18%. this will get us very close to all time high

we will be 16.2 or 16.3.

ATH IS 16.6. iirc

[vapourminer]

Still moving up in diff +18%. this will get us very close to all time high

we will be 16.2 or 16.3.

ATH IS 16.6. iirc

ok now i know im stupid. and i read that many big miners have power contracts still in effect so they will run no matter the price of difficulty till they expire.

but wasnt there a big drop last(?) adjustment? why shut down and turn it back on if power was fixed.

or do you think its new gear. although i though bitmain wasnt shipping new orders due to their internal civil war.

or is this preordered gear just exiting the pipeline?

sorry if this was already explained upthread. ive tried to keep up but as i said im not too bright. is there a tldr for a brief recap?

[favebook]

New gear (S19 Pro and S19) are already being turned on. They were delivered to Serbia (I do not know how exactly as Bitmain is not officially shipping to Serbia) like two or three weeks ago. Also as soon as miners saw the drop in difficulty, they turned back their miners, that's what I did too, had 2 T2TZ sitting as soon as BTC halved and they weren't running until 5 days ago.

[philipma1957]

Why the jump up?

well question is good. I will merit it.

the ath is 16.5 or 16.6. around 125eh

we may have enough gear ⚙️ to do 19.9 right now. around 160eh.

of course a lot is old s9 and avalon 841.

So we have maybe 45 to 60 eh of swing gear ⚙️

I can move my 1.3 ph to 1.5ph or 1.1 ph in 10 minutes remotely.

when the drop came last jump i boosted our hash to 1.4 ph

in two or three days when we get the jump of 18% I will shut down all the s9s.

my farm is in a warehouse it is 1.5 ph mine and buy solars

.5 ph  more is the ware house guys

and 10gh is ltc mine and buy solars.

We occupy 10% of the ware house and we use around 115kwatts

we could do 160kwatts .   we do have 300th in s9s.  this is swing gear.

we have 22 s17 pro and s17.  we can flux them from 44th to 57th

I know lots of small players like me.

I think I know of six mini farms 1-10 ph in NY , NJ.

we can all bump up or down 10-20% on a dime.

I would think there are hundreds of us in USA 🇺🇸. And thousands of us in China 🇨🇳.

The farm is a small part of the warehouse spot. Players can jump up and down 20% easy.

Years ago I did a study of f2pool payouts.

They had hundreds of payouts based on miners with 10 to 50 s9s.  say 130 to 850 th.

since i did that when there was less hash.

I do glance at payouts and I can tell you the viabtc pays hundreds of 1.1 ph to 10 ph miners.

give me an hour or two I will show stats that back this up.

1.1 ph pays about .01 btc a day at viabtc
11 ph pays about .10 btc a day at viabtc.

viabtc is 6 percent of the network.

i should be able to show just how many 1.1 to 11 ph miners exsist in the net work. in under an hour from now.

here is a viabtc pool payout

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/f0da0c21bbeadfadf4d414ccf7d23883f72e80be0e1ba4c225c44971bbf6ff64

Code:

2020-06-11 22:26

paid from

1F14hf631skuNpQxkbg24T3yhcGQ5CdjYV
10.00000000 BTC
1gMk6kPchi5BXei1JKC2BbvZkRcGDTs6a
10.00000000 BTC
1MLYhbxKykTYza4aXAvXtyUefhC9ZjppR1
10.00000000 BTC
1buJKUZDiYvdd4Job6mre3nhgTTJ1rad8
10.00000000 BTC


paid to. I listed 140 payments. there are 940 in the transaction

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14kH5UhRsvfHEVzNfhpSZn47fAuoWWhmkQ
0.01234888 BTC
1APVbUG5UTpa9qXoYJr8NrpZr3c2nDW7Tg
0.00108969 BTC
3JoGyYXN2mW4ZCtzdkfijRkhsWDvhK2pKm
0.10560962 BTC
3PSPcfvFVUB7zGxEvujNv4TCGEd4B63e65
0.00531133 BTC
3Gye7SDSCArXjhZMfaFLcJkb3EADKskr6A
0.04547678 BTC
1KSUNedEivxmGsX4PLKWfua3YrtgpVhGJ
0.02837182 BTC
3NxnPzmj1BTUb9eP4QigaYDFEewyu8hnuJ
0.01854541 BTC
bc1q9cj3qef4agp4d5gp6t0txaqnurzvpn4s42vdjp
0.00120487 BTC
19tcy24kx5Rat9aAu2CeCW4e4LKPimPxPL
0.14844020 BTC
3GkE4uaYjsyFZsEF7AV63vjXnM9fXu42WD
0.01220456 BTC
1KcpkP9R3mpWE2M3QmZqtZCBZPfPzS3Q61
0.01857270 BTC
3MjgWbCSJBwoZWLgVMJbkT45pma69RJCa6
0.02535837 BTC
1Lg9m5YEdv51t9SmMxhNZmSqbKTBUXVFpi
0.02533856 BTC
36icRcniSx7J8UVmL1J6NvE9SuR3TKUXxe
0.01020673 BTC
19fize4qZ7wuAmXhAUWXzxQx3XHtfqFocr
0.01035925 BTC
bc1qql5q2gu33vz98lq6u2dsqs97dnzdwmn86yfjta
0.01485817 BTC
1MrJuNEeYqQZPLnREkUQSQ5QrBujzaG3EX
0.02655441 BTC
3B5d3vGNAkb4zEeLtDPEa8tCR13KWx5yWy
0.01056939 BTC
1BVLqbMpyFgfSTcKWUbuT4WkvRSh5npqrD
0.01403446 BTC
1N6U679895wa9oAqQsBBWWsdBQ6AGHo5dg
0.05594990 BTC
38S8xN7RP9ChbQW8eBCy7ZLDYmBuipBSb3
0.01008439 BTC
1K9pSFM8ogzn73yqZNb7EewVHgdX5D81w
0.01174700 BTC
34ixiZNCBynC74QSpuxHVCitPNtAqs1iKs
0.02733268 BTC
3Bitqgpfq3PwjVpJA9bjDG6v5Spn3barz6
0.00108909 BTC
1KgAVdHrYEi6TVZdfg9DtPn6SAzp8w89WB
0.00114905 BTC
3JQkoh9A5LPU6dYf5tcN4j883M8CDqEVTL
0.01373271 BTC
1DTzWgou5nzFwn1KWK7ctBVbZ9pGJ3yaLA
0.03124404 BTC
1FrtLdjumnHK8EKgHMdrVjEqrzNTphC2EQ
0.01741071 BTC
36QsW24SQpB9WrGcBkeaG7hSuwmEnrijbw
0.00385562 BTC
19hFBy4qYyB5qr4j5Dh3buBgKoFwrEkVJ8
0.01055531 BTC
1Nci5aABvmZKkGWjhZzDKZhGiNH3D9NbZJ
0.01070052 BTC
18uWZ1AwoGXr6Z1a9DyjtZFR5Lktrpvm73
0.01297991 BTC
1Fd7vwfYAgycTHupwJitkehLPzXEcD82df
0.01706218 BTC
39VXseuyZMDztC1z22qFQvwBrnoTm5VatN
0.10745951 BTC
3GormU1qCGgFNFUXHzKB8nCoHS8nHkvuA3
0.00140230 BTC
1M5kPiHdd5p9t81UnJqBRK3dWRnX4LoHGQ
0.01275984 BTC
3HxJUz94VUfwdRHtEjAZakQJwiFLaLb8H2
0.06133780 BTC
1KTjU6z1QdSLkfJh85ZQZUD4yeKDMZx8Ug
0.05000921 BTC
1PpEmq8h9DG6mGnJMKBAkbAtVttFLrXeSp
0.01733515 BTC
bc1qa07sgyyu8putyf9msfgclyjvc778e79fm04azj
0.01153854 BTC
bc1qcnwpv782695dj3s7sa2jfpg3qzte3farqau07v
0.01076058 BTC
1NbwJvyeA4B2HBht6ijrfJg6Uo3PMEkYtx
0.07335562 BTC
18iUcEMqTDZDfYyodeVCPHJBgvcsWjjEGt
0.01039222 BTC
14YMHw6Ks5J5Q7ffoGVoNj4gwFVBqUaDRZ
0.00592940 BTC
bc1qsww0ep0lxw8hx6xjytc7s4vxfxuznkerszvwrh
0.01189289 BTC
3QthgSxWYQh45jewiphYsiwqqaC9LuErSA
0.06459009 BTC
36hy1NVncWd6sbgABYdC3oHhGHSCFx2cgk
0.00115354 BTC
3EPj3ySdYo3EkKT8de6KhT8NpwSN1bgXb3
0.01878810 BTC
Load more outputs... (801 remaining)
Fee
0.00097788 BTC
(3.077 sat/B - 0.769 sat/WU - 31781 bytes)

So I did the first 134 on the list of 940

Under 0.001    25
Over   0.01  104
0ver   0.10       4
Over.  1.00       1

You can see. most miners grabbed over 0.01 btc and under 0.1 btc

puts them in the 1 ph to 10 ph range.

Not they could be lower 350 th. would take 3 days to reach 0.01 btc

So you can argue base on this smaller sample.  most miners at viabtc have between 333th and 10 ph

only 1 guy is mining over 1 btc a day. = super farm
only 4 are doing over 0.1 btc a day.   = large farm.

I would argue if you break down this transaction completely you would find that more then 1/2 the hash and coin paid. is to guys in the 333th to 10ph farm size.

these people will be nimble and shift fast because they can.

If you have all whatsminer m20s say 66 th. and 30 pieces

you can alter from low to high on all 30 pieces in under 1 minute That is from 49th to 66th x 30 fast.

if they were marginal at a diff of 16.1. and mined at low speed.  so 30 x 49 = 1.47 ph

14 keystrokes on the whatsminer 5.0.2 app and they all mine at high speed. 30 x 66 = 1.98 ph.  34% hash jump

and if the jump goes 18%.  they will drop back to low speed at 1.47 ph.    25% hash drop.

this is one section of miners.

then if you grabbed a 2 month rainy season contract you may load up with s9's at 2 cent power and hope you make out.

when we saw the big hash drop a while back we could see with 1 week to go hash would drop.
if you did a 1 mega watt contract. for 2 months. at a penny

you could fire up old gear on hand. these guys won't shut down for 2 months.

I can give 11 angles all because I think we really have 200eh of gear able to mine and we mine with only 90 to 120eh due to low coin price and high diff.

Long post sorry.

[mikeywith]

sorry if this was already explained upthread. ive tried to keep up but as i said im not too bright. is there a tldr for a brief recap?

I went into detail on how will difficulty keep rising post halving (long term) despite the price, the first obvious reasons are


-gears efficiency : This is very obvious and needs no explanation.


-people who have access to free power: There are more of them than most people think, those can mine with the old cheap gears non-stop thus adding pressure on the difficulty, I put a few real examples in my previous posts a few months ago.

-Newbies: because mining doesn't require a license and experience to start, many people ( call them what you like ) mine at a loss either for the hope of their holdings to go up, tax evasion or whatever reason they see fit ( many of those reasons are terrible) and there are plenty of them, and we see them around more often, some people have a power rate of 15 cents and the buy Bitmain gears for $4000 and they never ROI, but during the time they mine, they help increase the difficulty, and by the time they leave, more of them will come.

[philipma1957]

Yeah the sample I showed a few posts back has 104 of 134 miners in say 333th to 10ph size.

these are good if they have solid power deals.

free which is really 1 cent.  since labor and breaking gear ⚙️ cost around 1 cent.

people like me with a spilt the coins deal.

oh coins are 9100 if we crash hard . to 7000 diff will drop but other then that  i dont think diff will be dropping much.

[minefarmbuy]

I don't see much of a drop coming either. likely another increase but time will tell. Of course after this coming adjustment.