It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

Based on the price of 5300 we should get over a 10% drop

I have 4 accounts

one has 41th at 80 watts a th  certainly dead but power is paid til march 31 = dead

one has 550th on high at 42 watts a th I get a 10% fee to manage it. = good

one has  1430 th mixed gear 300th is s9 they will be shut down soon rest is pretty good 40 to 60 watts a th

one has  11gh of ltc  which is hanging in there as no threat of ½ ing exists. = good

So I will be ending the s9's very soon.  340th hash to  go by by.

since this is the situation we are okay for the ½ ing after that ?

A lot depends on how long we can mine after the ½ ing

My hope is to stick at this until Aug 1

We can shut the s9's off and down clock everything else  it will help with this shit $5300.00 usd price.

Yeah  prediction the 2 week diff is doable and you can kind of stretch to 26 days  with comfortable accuracy.

The money has been in finding the flat spots.

None of this counts as 1918-1919 spanish flu was the last true world wide disaster

20 million of 1.2 billion died world wide.

If we match that  it would be 140 million of 8.4 billion  I don't think it will do this.

I do think  400,000 will with 12,000 dead will be topped if we are lucky.

This is cause fear  in my opinion as a terror state or individual  could  morph a virus like this  and get the big numbers.

This is a funky virus 1 death in all people under 10.  A newborn  who had  a very ill mother is the only person under 10 to die.

As a designer weapon  this virus is very close to perfect.

Just think if you make one that  is easy to catch  kills only  over 10 years old.

and you have 1.2 billion catch it with  200 million dead.

You vaccinate your people then unleash the virus.

Bam a classic James Bond villain could do it.  Very frightening for us to see it this close to being true.

We are very  close to it being a real possibility.

Most people are mulling this idea over as now possible on some level thus the terrible markets all over.

My wife is hanging in there

post nasal drip
hacking cough  with  stuff coming up = this is good. means not corona-v
no fever = this is good not corona-v

But due to the pneumonia in early jan she has  sensitivity lungs kind of like asthma or bronchitis .

Keys are no fever and  when she coughs stuff comes up  really hoping this gets better soon.

Years ago she worked only ½ from world trade center.  She did have a cough and drip from that. She wore high end n100 mask as she walked to work and her building had very good air filters.

That did not become pneumonia but it lasted until spring of  2002.

[1714691273]

1714691273

[wndsnb]

Diff projection still heading down, the estimate is now sitting at -8.5%. At least it will be a good shakeout. For many miners that were on the cusp and barely profitably this was enough to motivate them to shut down now. Maybe many of those were trying to hold out until the halving and this got them out early. More BTC for those of us who are sticking it out for the long haul...

[philipma1957]

I set the clifton mine up with the crash possibility in mind.

I did a blend of efficient miners s17pros and power hungry miners. s9s

the 14 s17pros do 770th
the 31 s9s do.       320th.

we have a mix of

whatsminer
m10
m20
m21
about 200th at 60watts

inno

t2t24
t3t39
t3t50
about 100th at 60watts

avalon
a1041
a1066

about 160th at 60watts

we can turn off all the s9s and mine on.
this was the plan on the 1/2 ing

I actually hope we get -10% diff and then -5% diff

[mikeywith]

We are 76 blocks behind and still have a long way to go till the adjustment, and I highly doubt any major corrections to the upside until the difficulty adjustment takes place, so my guess is a drop of between 12% to 15% is imminent, we have a few hours for the weekly close and so far it seems like we closing below the critical 200MA on the weekly chart which is a very bad sign that suggests a lower-low than 3.2k, my guess is 2.6k in a few weeks before the market recovers, however, before heading south we might have a few days of price bouncing up so if difficulty drops 15% i think you will still be able to mine a little more with the S9s but most likely not for long.

[philipma1957]

... we have a few hours for the weekly close and so far it seems like we closing below the critical 200MA on the weekly chart which is a very bad sign that suggests a lower-low than 3.2k, my guess is 2.6k...

Price formulas for any market are not much good here. Not saying they are wrong or correct but they were developed over time and I don't believe world wide pandemics have ever been fully analyzed or factored in.

Last real pandemic was spanish flu in 1918-1919

Many economic models where not created at this time.  I am not sure what was.

Value of an in-house reverse osmosis filter =  bigger due to pandemic
Value of an in-house air filter = bigger due to pandemic.
Value of a home = bigger as you can store a lot of food in it.

Value of all cash. less  why?  food  + water cost more.
value of all crypto coins less why? need cash for food and water.
Value of a ventilator system = really high if you got corona-v.

Possible bad shit to come .

China and Korea relax quarantines corona-v  crest with a second higher wave.   This most likely is what is scaring big money guys.

If China and Korea relax the curfews and a second wave starts back it means all the world needs to do a long curfew.

What happens if the world needs to be on lock down for 90 days.  This will bury most markets of all kinds all over the world.

It will be a shit has hit the fan mess that no one has ever really seen before.

[mikeywith]

Price formulas for any market are not much good here. Not saying they are wrong or correct but they were developed over time and I don't believe world wide pandemics have ever been fully analyzed or factored in.

Indeed, I am by no means saying that technical analysis has stronger value than pandemics, but they certainly add more insult to injury, so instead of people only selling something to survive, you got the traders taking short positions on the pair, making the drop even worse, of course, this is only what I think.

I would image this is the only store of wealth that should gain value due to a pandemic.

Having some of the things you mentioned above is also a great way of maintaining the value of your wealth, where I live food prices increased over 10% over 24hrs and we have 0 confirmed cases, I can only imagine that everything people need to survive will go up at least 100% in price if we get a single case confirmed, I cashed out just enough for a couple of months, slowly stacking food preparing for the worse.

Some researches suggest that higher temperatures will slow down the spreading of the coronavirus, and if that it's true I don't expect it to spread where I live because in just a few weeks we will start having long days with strong sunshine and a ton of heat, there is also a vaccine from Moderna Therapeutic that should be ready "for human testing as early as April" according to this article, so let's expect the worst but still hope for the best.

[philipma1957]

I am on the same page as you  as the models suck for price going bullish.  Have to  wait and see  what develops.

[favebook]

Some researches suggest that higher temperatures will slow down the spreading of the coronavirus...

That is highly unlikely, as Corona has spread all the way even into the hotter parts of Earth (Australia for example).

Also, it has been around 20C and more for last few days in Serbia, and it continued spreading as fast as any other country.

Also, Serbia is as of 8 hours ago in full lock down - quarantine. We are (same as Italians) not allowed to leave house unless we have written document stating that we have to (due to work or any other valid reason).

We (Serbians) are not that big part of crypto market, but I just wanted to share my current status.

[philipma1957]

Actually it does matter as this is  a worldwide event.

My fears for myself are:

1) my wife catches it in her already weakened condition.

2)I am 63                                 =  not good.
3)I have a managed asthma       = not good.
4)I have a managed sugar issue  = not good.
 
So frankly  a worldwide disease with numbers like Italy scare me a lot.

If it goes the route of 75 days of bad numbers  most of us will recover and the world  will be a changed place.

The diff and the ½ ing will  become more important then they are today.

I did sell a bit of coin today  near 5725 price we  then dropped again to 5288.

[stompix]

Having some of the things you mentioned above is also a great way of maintaining the value of your wealth, where I live food prices increased over 10% over 24hrs and we have 0 confirmed cases...

Wow, is there still a country with zero cases? And with test being done? I'm in self-isolation, work from home, and it's more stressful than going out, imagine that I have to deal 24/7 with a small kid packed with energy and we can't get out of the house and let him blow it all in a park...yesterday I didn't have more than a few minutes to read the forum.

My fears for myself are:

1) my wife catches it in her already weakened condition.

2)I am 63                                 =  not good.
3)I have a managed asthma       = not good.
4)I have a managed sugar issue  = not good.

Try and stay in house, if you don't get in contact with anyone infected there is no chance of getting it. You Americans are usually more prepared with stocked things so I guess you're also.

The numbers look bad...or good, I think for the miners who can still mine.

... between -9.8733% and -7.2300%

If it takes another drop (right now price is back at 5100), the -10 and -5 you mentioned are really going to come true.

[philipma1957]

Ltc dropped hard from 6.2 to 5.1 to get a preview of what btc will do tracking ltc numbers helps.

I figure Ltc will drop to a diff of 4 or 4.5 on next adjustment.

since price drop of ltc has matched price drop of btc my guess is btc diff will drop much like ltc.

[mikeywith]

That is highly unlikely, as Corona has spread all the way even into the hotter parts of Earth (Australia for example).

How hot is it in Australia? it hardly gets as hot as 30 °C around summer there, we don't know the exact temperatures that will kill Coronavirus, but it's safe to assume that it dislikes hot weather and gets stronger during cold days, that is one of the reasons why people tend to fall more sick in winter than in summer.

Also, it has been around 20C and more for last few days in Serbia, and it continued spreading as fast as any other country.

20 °C is not even hot, how hot does it get in June/July? where I live temps go to as high as 45 °C, heck we even went above 55 °C (131F) a few times, I am pretty confident that will be more than what any virus can handle, we human beings can barely survive the summer here. 

Also, Serbia is as of 8 hours ago in full lock down - quarantine. We are (same as Italians) not allowed to leave house unless we have written document stating that we have to (due to work or any other valid reason).

That is bad news, my thoughts are with you.

Wow, is there still a country with zero cases? And with test being done?

Yup, we are a few but do exist or at least up to this point in time which I hope will last longer.

4)I have a managed sugar issue  = not good.

I don't think there is any direct link between high blood sugar and death % as far as the coronavirus is concerned, asthma and age do pretty much directly, so you should really be more careful than everyone else.


Looking at bitinfocharts bitcoin total hashrate is sitting at 95EH, the last time we got this low was back in January 2020, the average hashrate for this year seem to be around 115EH, I expect both bitcoin price as well as hashrate will keep on dropping prior to the halving, probably bitcoin price at $2600 and hashrate to 85EH, that's just a wild guess.

[philipma1957]

normally I don't push price guesses.

But diff is going to tank a lot. Stockmarkets are linked as crypto coins are played like stocks.
We could see a crazy crash as I think most exchanges are trading imaginary coins on high margin leverages.

If coins drop to 2000 I would not be surprised. But my caveat is worldwide markets matter here.  Dow Jones Nasdaq are but 2 of them  there are a lot more. It they keep tanking crypto will tank right with them.

Be careful guys and gals. These are crazy times. Basically no one has seen this that can remember this type of pandemic.  1918-1919 is a long time ago.

off topic:
Having a sugar issue means I manage my sugar level by diet. I was 12.1 on the a1c translation dude you are going to die in a few years without proper dieting.

I do no meds for it I diet on keto and I am at 6.7 to 7.1  which is pretty good for only dieting. It means I do produce enough insulin to not have to take pills.  But

no breads
no beer
no cake
no wheat products.

Being mostly of Italian descent no pasta or italian bread is hard to do.

back to topic we are down 11%  and I see that holding or going to 15%.

[stompix]

20 °C is not even hot, how hot does it get in June/July? where I live temps go to as high as 45 °C, heck we even went above 55 °C (131F) a few times, I am pretty confident that will be more than what any virus can handle, we human beings can barely survive the summer here.  

MERS (which is the little brother of this one, and also a coronavirus) started in Al-Ahsa in May, the temperature for that region during the start of the disease was over 40°C...so, all we can do is speculate right now, and I do hope this one has nowhere near the resistance of sars and mers or we're ..f...

Looking at bitinfocharts bitcoin total hashrate is sitting at 95EH, the last time we got this low was back in January 2020, the average hashrate for this year seem to be around 115EH, I expect both bitcoin price as well as hashrate will keep on dropping prior to the halving, probably bitcoin price at $2600 and hashrate to 85EH, that's just a wild guess.

Wow, aren't you bearish... You're saying "prior", does that mean you're anticipating a scenario with under 4k per coin during to the halving? That would be brutal!

I know you said once you have dirt cheap power but is that cheap so you would still be able to mine in if this scenario comes true? Lucky !!!

... between -11.1529% and -8.6046%

127 blocks behind!!!! Thank god the panic selling and exchange rush has stopped for while as we might have experienced again a rise in fees, that would have been the cherry on the cake.

[philipma1957]

Well I was checking h1n1 back in 2009/2010

wiki stats  are 700,000,000 to 1,400,000,000 got sick with it

and 175,000 to 575,000  died from it   world wide stats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

those are estimated numbers according to wiki.

So if 700,000,000 catch this and death rate is 2 - 7%   we get 14,000,000 to 49,000,000 worldwide deaths.

If 1,400,000,000 catch this  and death rate is 2-7%  we get 28,000,000 to 101,000,000 worldwide deaths.

Those numbers are in the range of the 1918-1919 spanish flu numbers.

Diff is -11%.

[mikeywith]

MERS (which is the little brother of this one, and also a coronavirus) started in Al-Ahsa in May, the temperature for that region during the start of the disease was over 40°C...so, all we can do is speculate right now, and I do hope this one has nowhere near the resistance of sars and mers or we're ..f...

Let's just say that I am trying to stay positive.  

Wow, aren't you bearish... You're saying "prior", does that mean you're anticipating a scenario with under 4k per coin during to the halving? That would be brutal!

I don't really think the halving will have any considerable effect on the price, I have already explained why in another topic.

We currently have 18,267,225 BTC, when the halving comes there will be 18,375,000, and so we already have 87.5% of the max total supply, the four years period that will follow the coming halving will add exactly 1,312,500 to the supply, so in other words, instead of adding 2,625,000 BTC from 2020 to 2024 you cut half of that (1,312,500).

Now taking the 1,312,500 as a % it only makes 7.14% of the total "to be" supply by May 2020, that is a very small percentage, too small to make the impact that many people expect it to make, if someone doesn't understand the numbers % wise, think about having a $100 and you spend $7.14.

comparing bitcoin daily volume to that 7% cut in supply over 4 years makes the halving even less important, the two previous halvings were completely different, they happened during "good times" and the overall market structure was bullish, the amount of btc reduced was a lot more in terms of % to available supply and trading volume, I can write a dozen words explaining why the 2020 halving would make little to no difference in terms of price, and given the current market situation with all the mess caused by the Coronavirus, I don't see why BTC can't stay under 4k both before and after the halving, I really hope I am wrong (I usually am  ).

I know you said once you have dirt cheap power but is that cheap so you would still be able to mine in if this scenario comes true? Lucky !!!

I do, I have 30kw for free, I still pay rent for that place so if profit =< rent then I am screwed, but that can only happen if bitcoin price drips really really low, I think even at current diff I can still go on at BTC price of $1500, for the other gears I have elsewhere I still not have to shut down but profit will be too little to bear the headache, mining is not just about cost per kWh, there are always on-going expenses and time invested, I count those factors too and believe it or not, even at 0 cent kWh rate, some will still lose money mining, I and those who have free or supper cheap power will be the last standing in the game, but I certainly prefer higher prices and higher diff than the opposite.

Thank god the panic selling and exchange rush has stopped for while...

This is probably because of the federal bank reducing interest rate and printing $700 billion out of thin air? but that IMO is not enough to hold the markets for long, they need to print more.

[philipma1957]

diff needs to drop by 30% for me to think no fear or worries.

BTW  LTC. diff went way down from last,years 1/2 ing

but so much is up in the air I do not know what will happen to btc diff for next three drops.

if i were bitmain i would swap s19s for the other gear on bit deer.

still charge power like it is an s17.

then clean up the s17s and push them out.

I think it would be better for them.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Stay safe Philip I hope your other half get's better soon it's getting serious here in the UK the gov missed the chance to isolate the county to some degree now they are saying they "estimate" 50k + people have it and are out in the  community.

[philipma1957]

Europe said they will be shutting down borders.

We are in New Jersey about an hour from New York City.

A lot of sick people in New York City.

To any and all that have been on my threads and on bitcointalk.org be careful.

[mikeywith]

diff needs to drop by 30% for me to think no fear or worries.

hmm, that would be interesting, when was the last time we actually had a 30% drop in diff?

2018-Oct to 2018-Dec

diff =7.4 droped to 5.1 > 31% drop
price = 6.5k droped to 3.2k > 49% drop

5.1 diff only lasted for one week, and then throughout the period of ranging between 3.2k and 4k the average difficulty was 5.8, and the average price for the same period was 3.6k  so that's not really a 31% but rather 21% drop in difficulty against 44% drop in price, so looks like the best we can expect is 2:1 ratio (price vs diff).

We had a drop from 10.5k to currently 5.5k or 45% if the prices stay around this level for say another month, diff will "supposedly" drop 22.5% from its hight of 16.55T, so something around 12.9T /last year end's difficulty, so maybe a 12-15% drop in 7 days and by Mid-April we hit 12.9T, that is my guess for now.