It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

Phil, at viabtc - new feature auto-switching mining rotating between BTC-BCH-BSV -- is it worth it?

(Optional) BCH and BSV can be mined as per above but auto-convert to BTC every hour

Auto Switch
Auto Switch provides a profitable mechanism with an ease to quickly switch the mining preferences with possible high returns using a designated algorithm, including Bitcoin pool (BTC, BCH, BSV). In comparison to manual switch, it's more flexible and easier to set up.

you know it is technically an alt coin subject.

I am just mining direct btc at viabtc

Once 1/2 ing comes maybe I switch to the switcher service.  Never liked switching as it tends to flatten out coin price.


Most likely no.

[1714677840]

1714677840

[1714677840]

1714677840

[stompix]

40 watt ....................................................... 10 cents     9.60 loser
40 watt .......................................................  5 cents.    4.80  1.17 profit.   bitmain s17 s17+
40 watt .......................................................  3 cents      2.88.   3.09 profit

30 watt ..................................................... 10 cents.     7.20 loser
30 watt ....................................................   5 cents.      3.60   2.37 profit
30 watt ....................................................   3 cents.      2.16.  3.81 profit

Nicely put, as always.
But am I missing something or...
The s19pro is doing 3.81c profit per TH, that gives 4.19$ per day, at current selling price excluding anything else even a power cable, ROI is in 628 days?
Of course,  other miners will drop, your share of the pie will be bigger per TH, but I'm talking about right now with those numbers..

Wtf am I doing wrong while calculating this..cause it has to be wrong..right?

[philipma1957]

I used 100th of gear not the s19pro or any specific gear

so 110 x  0.0597 =.

$6.57 usd a day pre power. or over 500 days to break even with free power.

it uses 78 k- watts  a day.

$ 7.80 at 10 cents loser
   3.90 at  5 cents = 2.67 daily  profit about 1000 days to break even
   2.34 at  3 cents  = 4.23 daily profit about   650 days to break even. assuming not import taxes  and a 2749 price including shipping

I see major shift in diff and or price  on or around may 12th 1/2 ing

as 3 cent power is not the norm.

Latest Block:   627994  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.6973%  (1019 / 1043.02 expected, 24.02 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15958652328578.42XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15624255891265 and 15704739124724
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.0954% and -1.5911%
Previous Retarget:   April 21, 2020 at 2:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 5, 2020 at 8:42 AM  (in 7d 0h 8m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 5, 2020 at 10:38 AM  (in 7d 2h 4m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 58m 57s and 14d 7h 55m 9s

price is 7751 at coin base

it would be nice to see a rally beyond 10,000 fire up and hold solid starting over the next few days.

[weedle622]

How are others thinking about the week between May 12 halving and ~May 19th?

With adjustments taking ~14 days and the next one coming on May 5th, we won't have a difficulty adjustment for the first week of the halving.

Personally I'm assuming diff will fall a little on May 19th, but I may be turning off some machines that first week depending on price.

[philipma1957]

All my gear turns a profit up to the ½ ing after the ½ ing 28 s9's all become losers about 310th

I have 1 t17 + 58 th

I have 1 s70 + 70 th

I will switch them in  a + of  128 th

so I will net lose 182th on may 11-13

I will Still have about 1800th to mine with.

Latest Block:   628404  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.1871%  (1429 / 1470.36 expected, 41.36 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15958652328578.42XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15533074934923 and 15568272929556
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.6668% and -2.4462%
Previous Retarget:   April 21, 2020 at 2:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 11:37 AM  (in 4d 3h 50m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 12:26 PM  (in 4d 4h 39m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 54m 1s and 14d 9h 43m 30s

587 blocks to go a nice week for mining.  price is back over 9k diff is looking to drop 1-3%

Looks like an ATH for the diff won't happen in a while  If we drop 2% to 15.5 on May 5th. The 1/2 ing comes may 12 and next Jump will be May 18-20 It should be 5-10%

Next Jump after that we should be -10%

So I see
 15.5 May 5
 14.0 May 19
 12.6 June  2

Now while that looks nice we will still need price to go to over 12k to make up for 1/2 ing

If we are at 15.9 and 9k with diff dropping

diff should and will be dropping until we clear the 12k  price level.

[stompix]

When the price jumped this was one of my first thoughts, we're going to avoid an average-to-serious drop in hash rate during the next period, no 15-20 minutes between blocks, no panicking over transactions stuck, with one more little push it will compensate for all. With newer gear probably (finally!) arriving and the efficiency increase, we will still have the same security over the network.

Seeing how activity (transactions) have picked up again after the price jump, we really don't need slower blocks right now :

Mempool size in MB taken from Jochen-hoenicke website.



The pandemic is slowing, countries are restarting activity, price is up, it's already summer here, ...everything is looking nice, right? And the s19 ROI period has been cut by a few months  

[philipma1957]

yeah with 500 blocks to go. we look like a small drop which actually will help prevent a huge drop next jump

still over 8800 price but we really need to get to 12000 to avoid large drops in the diff.

The s-19's will roll out very slowly

the m30s is $$$ and I think it is 38 watts a th.


https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m30s-with-psu/

1980 ships in 5 days

88th and 3480 watts  is 39.5 watts short wait has some attraction


they have a video on the 30s++

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=16&v=Ze2c4YTVsJw&feature=emb_logo

they insist on 3400 watt units with a c19/c20 connection

which means  220 volts to 240 volts is okay but if you sag to 210 volts you are breaking code for constant run.

[stompix]

Seems like gear is being added

From -2 to -0.14 in two days

Latest Block:   628404  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.1871%  (1429 / 1470.36 expected, 41.36 behind)

Now:

Latest Block:   628766  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.7365%  (1791 / 1795.73 expected, 4.73 behind)

In 363 blocks the difference to the target has been cut from 41 blocks to 5, that's an increase of 10% compared to the previous trend. Of course, it might be some luck that is messing with the statistics but it's also possible we might not see a drop this time. One and half day left... And for the next epoch, popcorn time!  

[mikeywith]

How are others thinking about the week between May 12 halving and ~May 19th?

With adjustments taking ~14 days and the next one coming on May 5th, we won't have a difficultly adjustment for the first week of the halving.

Personally I'm assuming diff will fall a little on May 19th,

A little is the last word I would use to describe the difficulty drop, unfortunately, it won't be May 19th but a bit later, here is how I see this playing out, the current epoch is ending tomorrow at just about flat 0%, so here is a break down for visualization for the next epoch


May 5 < from here
May 6
May 7
May 8
May 9
May 10
May 11 < to here, the average block time will be 10 mins
May 12 < party starts here, I suspect a drop in hashrate by at least 30% and this from here
May 13
May 14
May 15
May 16
May 17
May 18 < to here the average block time should be 10*130% 13 mins

so half blocks at 10 mins, the other half at 13 mins, the average timestamp will be 11.5 which will result in 15% drop, treat the dates as 144 blocks, which means the diff adjustment won't happen on 19th but 15% later which is 21st of May.

The above assumes no major changes in price, which I doubt, we are more likely to be at the 7k to low 8k region by then, which will make things even worse, so a 20% drop in difficulty is not too far a stretch, but let's wait and see.

[philipma1957]

we have 89 blocks to go.

Latest Block:   628902  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   100.5361%  (1927 / 1916.72 expected, 10.28 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   15958652328578.42XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 16062513038107 and 16062717174428
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6508% and +0.6521%
Previous Retarget:   April 21, 2020 at 2:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 12:55 AM  (in 0d 14h 45m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 12:56 AM  (in 0d 14h 45m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 12m 29s and 13d 22h 12m 42s

logic dictates max out your hash now and until block 630000  which is 1098 blocks away.

We could push to 1% gain this jump .  and the first week of the next jump you may as well try as hard as you can to make coins.

[stompix]

+ 0.92 %   16,104,807,485,529

So we need 2.78% to get back to the ATH, of course, I don't think it will happen. And less than 7 days to go.

The above assumes no major changes in price, which I doubt, we are more likely to be at the 7k to low 8k region by then, which will make things even worse, so a 20% drop in difficulty is not too far a stretch, but let's wait and see.

Quite the teddybear, why are you that pessimistic? Not that I expect a miraculous jump that will also keep the price above 10k for a long period but there will be a bit of hype for the event, enough to at least 1k 2k even if it will be only temporary as people will strat realize the halving is not some magic pill.
But this temporary boost combine with (possible!) s19 deliveries might help us avoid a really dramatic 30% drop.

Yesterday electrum was telling me to pay 51sat/b, I really don't want to know what fees might pop up with blocks coming out 1/3 slower.

[philipma1957]

coins are 8850 or for us miners 4425 in six days.

I see upwards trend till the 12th. and the storm begins

13.74 cents a th drops to
 6.87 cents a th

100th of 50 watt gear.   drops from 13.74 to 6.87 usd a day.   120 kwatts at 5 cents = 6.00. so profit is only  87 cents on 50 watt a th gear I estimate the network to be at 60-65 watts per th. A lot of gear will drop off here.


the s19 pro will go from 15.11 to 7.55.

 5 cent power means it will earn 1.55 a day or 1800 days to break even at 5 cent power
 3 cent power means it will earn 5.39 a day or.  517 days to break even at 3 cent power

I use a price of 2790 for a s19 pro. and the gear is due to show up in about 60 days   so

1860 days to break even with 5 cent power
 577 days to break even with 3 cent power.

and most likely. it will cost more then. 2790 if you buy today with shipping and import fees.

Trump is screaming about China owning the whole world for covid-19 translation he will jack import tax on china.

If you order a s19 pro today shipping date is July 1-31. It could be subject to a higher import tax. maybe 35%

that would mean it is not 2790 it will be 2633+167 = 2800 + 921 = 3700

3700 is 2387 days to break even oh add on 60 day wait for gear

 it is 2447 day to break even for a 5 cent power guy.
 it is  686 day to break even for a 3 cent power guy.
 it is 550 day to break even for a free power guy.

translation. either price moves way up. or diff drops way down

[mikeywith]

Quite the teddybear, why are you that pessimistic?

"Hope for the Best. Expect the worst".

I want nothing more than seeing BTC rise in value, but there is a reason why I think we are more likely to go down than up.

Yesterday electrum was telling me to pay 51sat/b, I really don't want to know what fees might pop up with blocks coming out 1/3 slower...

Don't count on your wallet to tell you the fees you need to pay, last night I was making a transaction and Coinomi suggested a bit over 70 sats per byte if I am not mistaken, I checked the unconfirmed transactions and figured out I could get away with just 5 sats, and it went through in no time, but hey, you should support miners, they are the backbone of BTC, tip them with high fees.

[philipma1957]

if it says pay 💰   60 ,70 ,80 ,90 sats. I pay 💰 24-28 sats.

if it says 40, 50 sats I pay 💰 21 sats.

if it says under forty I pay 10 sats.

I also consolidate wallets on my three trezor wallets use 1 or 2 sats since 8 don’t care how long it takes from my wallet to my other wallet.

[rasmukri]

 it is 550 day to break even for a free power guy.

Good thing all my gear hit the ROI over a year ago, and I have free power  What sucks is i really want to upgrade my setup with some whats miner 72 TH but i have no more power available. I live in a 4-plex and my breaker box is maxed out. I got 3x s15's running off the dryer outlet 

I only have a total of 127 TH but i got it all on solo for now hoping to hit, but not too likely. I hope the diff drops like a stone after the half, even at 6.25 a solo block would be damn nice but the diff will not lower too much because luck and me never meet 

[philipma1957]

May I start you on the path to luck here is your first merit, cause your post got me to  smile 😀 .

[stompix]

Don't count on your wallet to tell you the fees you need to pay, last night I was making a transaction and Coinomi suggested a bit over 70 sats per byte if I am not mistaken, I checked the unconfirmed transactions and figured out I could get away with just 5 sats, and it went through in no time, but hey, you should support miners, they are the backbone of BTC, tip them with high fees.

Hihi, it was telling me 51sat/b, what he got was  3.247 sat/B - 1.281 sat/WU  

Anyhow, seems like there was no need for my tips, price is starting to knock at the 10k doors so we might really avoid the huge drop in hash rate. Btw, again today we haven't seen an empty mempool, usually early morning GMT0 time it was like that after each block, not anymore and with the jump in price it will probably last a few days again.

Latest Block:   629403  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   107.0421%  (412 / 384.90 expected, 27.1 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.5011% and +7.1228%

3 4 days left till the halving. And with the increase in price right now you can finally ROI with an s19 in less than a year with free power and no Trump tax. (assuming halved reward)

LE: Of course 4, not 3, thanks philipma1957

[philipma1957]

Price needs to go over 12,000 to prevent a drop in hash. we are at 9800   which is 4900 which means strong drop in hash.

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/   4 days and 2 hours.

[vickersja]

Broke 10K for a bit.  Back down.

[philipma1957]

Looks like a lot of fud occurring for miners. we drifted to about +0.49% I would have thought a strong rise in hash and then a drop in 3 days once ½ ing occurs   coins are about 9700 right now  which means for miners they are about 4850.

I wonder if they will be a strong retreat to bch and bsv and gear gets turned off.

things will be jumping very soon.

Latest Block:   629650  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.4936%  (659 / 655.76 expected, 3.24 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   16104807485529.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 16152086784284 and 16191465321760
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2936% and +0.5381%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 12:02 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 18, 2020 at 10:23 PM  (in 9d 9h 3m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 18, 2020 at 11:08 PM  (in 9d 9h 48m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 20m 58s and 13d 23h 5m 50s